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Post by harshal1981 on Apr 7, 2014 22:37:17 GMT -5
Well, the only thing management, longs and diabetics who are eagerly waiting for this drug to come to market will have to come to the terms with this 3 month delay. There is no way out. I certainly was expecting 30 day extension. But looks like 3 month extension (and resultant 30-40 mil cash burn) is FDA's parting gift to their beloved company that is nagging them for last 5 years! In terms of cash projections, I think they will be okay with ATM 50 Mil, Cash on hand and 30 Mil Al's credit line. In fact this time Al might prefer MNKD to use his credit line and later covert it to shares so that he maintains his % holding in the company to offset his diluted % due to Deerfield conversion. I think they will hold on to ATM until June/July if they can so that they can minimize dilution while raising 50mil. (I am sure they would much rather covert Al's debt to share at low conversion price so that he can benefit out of it rather then giving more shares to common public to raise 50 mil at low share price). After PDUFA, they are well covered with total $130 mil from Deerfield (assuming they full converted their $60 mil so $90 mil from new amendment + $40 mil from old). I think I have seen it all when it comes to investing in biotech while riding this MNKD roller coster since 2010.
To me, only advantage I have is that I will exit MNKD with all my gains at Long Term Cap Gains. Close to half of my position was from last July and I think now I will be safe if I decide to exit soon after approval / partnership announcement. I never liked Options and nor I intend to dive in to it any time soon so my investments were not really time dependent. I am sure most of the longs must have already adjusted their options after AdCom date announcement. Sure some must have taken a hard hit.
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Post by realisticview on Apr 8, 2014 8:43:34 GMT -5
I guess you are not buying into the assertion here that the platform (Technosphere) is really the goldmine. I can tell you as a chronic pain patient, that if MNKD and the Torrey Pines group have something with their pain medication (in early trials), the value will be incalculable.
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Post by liane on Apr 8, 2014 11:00:18 GMT -5
Everyone has their own investing timelines. An inhaled pain med would be great, but it (like any new formulation on the Technosphere platform) will require lengthy trials. There has to be a clinical need to use the inhaled route for any drug - avoiding injections, speed, etc. You then must still prove safety and efficacy. All this takes time.
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Post by harshal1981 on Apr 8, 2014 11:05:40 GMT -5
I agree with Liane - Apart from investing timelines, If I keep part of my money in MNKD, it will be for the maturity of share price reflecting the true sales potential of Afrezza. Not because of other drug indication on Technosphere platform. Any new drug from MNKD on any of their platform (including oncology program under hibernation), wlll take more than 6 years to add any value to share price.
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Post by mdcenter61 on Apr 8, 2014 11:23:43 GMT -5
Everyone has their own investing timelines. An inhaled pain med would be great, but it (like any new formulation on the Technosphere platform) will require lengthy trials. There has to be a clinical need to use the inhaled route for any drug - avoiding injections, speed, etc. You then must still prove safety and efficacy. All this takes time.
I have been long for six years now, and totally agree with Liane on the time aspect of further Technosphere applications; personally, I am extremely weary of this entire process - I will be taking (post approval) at least half of my position out of mnkd; will let some ride depending on circumstances. This investment has taken way too much of my time and energy focus, but still very hopeful that it will be well worth it. I can't even imagine what Dr. Mann's mental weariness must be like to deal with the FDA, analysts, stockholders, etc.
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Post by jpg on Apr 8, 2014 11:31:58 GMT -5
I agree most of the near term gains will be with their inhaled insulin. I do see a scenario where you have Afrezza proving the value of Mannkind's Technosphere but on top of that you have a truly paradigm shifting drug being worked on by Torrey Pines using Technosphere. If anyone thought Afrezza was novel read up on, the very early I will readily admit, stuff being worked on by Torrey Pines. It will take a while but if they are right this will be much much bigger then Afrezza and could potentially revolutionize pain management. I din't fully understsnd it with the limited info they have given but they are talking of a completely new way of treating pain in a nom addictive way using (if I recall correctly) small peptides. Again this is very early but will will hear a lot more about it when Afrezza starts ramping up sale and this could be a huge catalyst for 'the sky is the limit' thinking. With a bit of luck (and work from Mannkimd) we might have other Technosphere projects in the works by then. I certainly am happy to stick around till then!
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 8, 2014 12:12:39 GMT -5
Everyone has their own investing timelines. An inhaled pain med would be great, but it (like any new formulation on the Technosphere platform) will require lengthy trials. There has to be a clinical need to use the inhaled route for any drug - avoiding injections, speed, etc. You then must still prove safety and efficacy. All this takes time.
I have been long for six years now, and totally agree with Liane on the time aspect of further Technosphere applications; personally, I am extremely weary of this entire process - I will be taking (post approval) at least half of my position out of mnkd; will let some ride depending on circumstances. This investment has taken way too much of my time and energy focus, but still very hopeful that it will be well worth it. I can't even imagine what Dr. Mann's mental weariness must be like to deal with the FDA, analysts, stockholders, etc.
mdcenter, well said, and we all have to recognize how many MNKD investors think just like you do (which is a perfectly reasonable and understandable way to think). This is one very big reason why you see biotechs rise up strongly on good news (or even really, really, good news) and fall right back down. The one bit of news that will set a bottom for the share price, would be a takeover attempt or a friendly buyout (the former would be preferable, but not possible with current virtually controlling stock ownership in the strong hands of Al Mann and Spiro).
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Post by ezrasfund on Apr 8, 2014 13:36:38 GMT -5
With this discussion of timelines I am compelled to re-post an observation from January about this counter-intuitive fact. The longer we wait the farther from our goal we probably are. A construction project one week past due is likely to be completed before a project that is one year past due on the same day. If your bus is 1 minute late it will probably be here soon, but if it is an hour late, you may be in for a long wait. I remember MannKind said something about partnership being just around the corner in October of 2009.
That said I am hoping to take some profits like everyone else when the time comes, but also expecting that MNKD will be a part of my portfolio for many ears to come.
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Post by jpg on Apr 8, 2014 13:46:19 GMT -5
Am I detecting long term shareholder fatigue? If so I am happy not to be alone!
This tends to be a good sign for future price gains no? A new crop of investors take over on the next leg up (or down...) and relives the joy of ownership...
I have been around enough very successful academic types to understand that one thing that sets them apart from the rest was not necessarily brain power (it helps but is in itself not enough) but more staying power and hard work. I presume this applies to billionaires and rich people at large also? I think many small investors put to much money into one idea and can't sleep anymore so they sell out early and miss the payoff to all the risk they had to take to get said relatively small payoff? I learnt it deeply with Illumina. I hope not to make that mistake again: still made 4x my investment but it could easily have been 20 times if I had not sold my biggest winner at the start of a panic. I guess I am a lousy trader. Good traders could have made a fortune on Illumina. The same is true with Mannkind obviously...
I am not saying this to be negative on any individual strategy but more to understand where small investors (like me) make mistakes and bail before the payoff. If we had listen to some of the 'wise men' on some boards we would all have bailed pre adcom at the worst price point.
I am seeing parallels between how early investors (including myself) though of Illumina and how people are thinking of Mannkind. The only difference is I understand where clinical diabetic management is heading a lot better then I understood where microarrays and sequencing was going. And on top of all this Mannkind has no competition while Illumima had and has, amongst many others Intel and IBM to worry about. I feel as if we have an edge! Hopefully...
JPG
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Post by slushy on Apr 8, 2014 14:36:25 GMT -5
I don't see any reason to hold beyond partnership if I can find another stock to invest my earnings. Once we get situated with approval and a partner/acquisition, the main speculation and volatility phase is over. All that will be left is MNKD actually having to deliver on sales (along with some approvals in other countries and additional technosphere developments). I don't see any reason not to take out a good chunk or all of my money at that point and put it into another stock that is going to have movement, all the while keeping an eye on MNKD for catalyst events that are going to cause the stock to spike or fall. I'm going to use these next 3+ months to figure out what stock is going to be the next big mover... any ideas?
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Post by bigboy on Apr 8, 2014 15:31:27 GMT -5
I don't see any reason to hold beyond partnership if I can find another stock to invest my earnings. Once we get situated with approval and a partner/acquisition, the main speculation and volatility phase is over. All that will be left is MNKD actually having to deliver on sales (along with some approvals in other countries and additional technosphere developments). I don't see any reason not to take out a good chunk or all of my money at that point and put it into another stock that is going to have movement, all the while keeping an eye on MNKD for catalyst events that are going to cause the stock to spike or fall. I'm going to use these next 3+ months to figure out what stock is going to be the next big mover... any ideas? Uhhhhhh that would be MNKD. The real money in biotechs comes from revenue growth (sales). You are too focused on the binary developmental stage to see the real money. Revenue growth should be very rapid (off a zero base). Selling at the point of commercialization would be silly other than for good risk control. The game just started at that point!
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Post by sunny3999 on Apr 8, 2014 16:36:40 GMT -5
I don't see any reason to hold beyond partnership if I can find another stock to invest my earnings. Once we get situated with approval and a partner/acquisition, the main speculation and volatility phase is over. All that will be left is MNKD actually having to deliver on sales (along with some approvals in other countries and additional technosphere developments). I don't see any reason not to take out a good chunk or all of my money at that point and put it into another stock that is going to have movement, all the while keeping an eye on MNKD for catalyst events that are going to cause the stock to spike or fall. I'm going to use these next 3+ months to figure out what stock is going to be the next big mover... any ideas? Uhhhhhh that would be MNKD. The real money in biotechs comes from revenue growth (sales). You are too focused on the binary developmental stage to see the real money. Revenue growth should be very rapid (off a zero base). Selling at the point of commercialization would be silly other than for good risk control. The game just started at that point! I am in the same mood as bigboy, the "BIGBOYS" are just flying in as they could do their DD after the amazing Adcom and will have to buy and accumulate till latest Juli... and there are not so much shares left, lets see the Short Interest tomorrow.....with the next good IR we will have the squeeze for sure! I will ride this Bull till to the end! No doubt!
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Post by realisticview on Apr 8, 2014 16:47:04 GMT -5
See AMGN for a company that MNKD will hopefully mirror. I'm not saying don't trade this, but always reinvest gains in more stock.
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 8, 2014 17:03:27 GMT -5
Uhhhhhh that would be MNKD. The real money in biotechs comes from revenue growth (sales). You are too focused on the binary developmental stage to see the real money. Revenue growth should be very rapid (off a zero base). Selling at the point of commercialization would be silly other than for good risk control. The game just started at that point! I am in the same mood as bigboy, the "BIGBOYS" are just flying in as they could do their DD after the amazing Adcom and will have to buy and accumulate till latest Juli... and there are not so much shares left, lets see the Short Interest tomorrow.....with the next good IR we will have the squeeze for sure! I will ride this Bull till to the end! No doubt! No short squeeze, chances of that are almost nil; why? cuz they always are.
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Post by mrhaigs on Apr 8, 2014 18:45:25 GMT -5
I know some of you are thinking that there is no stock price effect on the future of techno sphere but I don't think you could be more wrong. I think we all realize that one day, not right away, but one day once everything gets going with afrezza, Al will sell the company. He's done it every time before, so I don't see why he won't again. The techno sphere platform is going to be worth big $ to the share price to anyone who buys the company because of its future potential, patents. Etc. This is something as investors we cannot overlook.
MrHaigs
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