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Post by mnkdnewb on Feb 1, 2017 18:28:06 GMT -5
So this R/S tells us there is really nothing in the near (next 6-9 months) future that we can realistically expect any reasonable amount of money from. No partnership, sale of company, upfront money for epi partner etc. I assume this is the reason for the sp falling to where it is now. Imho, once the r/s is approved they will announce an offering and raise about $75 - $100 million which will cut the sp in half after the split. This almost guarantees a 10:1 split. With the r/S I expect the share price to be right around $6 with around 45 million shares outstanding / $250 million market cap. Financing soon after will add another 15-20 million shares bringing the sp to around $3 per share. That'll keep them listed for another year or two with about 1 years worth of cash. All imo
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 1, 2017 18:35:17 GMT -5
It's true that the other shoe (stock offering/dilution) may drop. It seems to me that the primary concern at the moment is not being delisted from NASDAQ. I'm not trying to sugar-coat this by saying a R/S won't happen because MNKD will get an extension or sales will pick up...or whatever.
But this action MUST be taken in the event that an extension will not be granted, IMO.
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Post by sophie on Feb 1, 2017 18:37:41 GMT -5
All that money will be needed to add another drug to the pipeline, but will we just find ourselves at this same juncture come this time next year? If we can't find a partner for Epi, there's not much of a guarantee that it will succeed any better than Afrezza. There are far more diabetics than type 1 hypersensitivity sufferers.
You're all free to have your own opinion of an inhalable form of epinephrine for anaphylaxis- mine is that there is a market for it, but it's far from a slam dunk. It may just as well be a niche product for those wealthy enough to have the privilege of choosing between injecting/inhaling, but having an injectable as a backup just in case. I know if it were either me or my child, I would not rely solely on an inhalable form.
We really need Afrezza to succeed.
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 1, 2017 18:39:11 GMT -5
So this R/S tells us there is really nothing in the near (next 6-9 months) future that we can realistically expect any reasonable amount of money from. No partnership, sale of company, upfront money for epi partner etc. I assume this is the reason for the sp falling to where it is now. Imho, once the r/s is approved they will announce an offering and raise about $75 - $100 million which will cut the sp in half after the split. This almost guarantees a 10:1 split. With the r/S I expect the share price to be right around $6 with around 45 million shares outstanding / $250 million market cap. Financing soon after will add another 15-20 million shares bringing the sp to around $3 per share. That'll keep them listed for another year or two with about 1 years worth of cash. All imo Nobody is going to finance this until the share price stops falling, and then they will do it for a 20% and change discount + warrant like last time. The problem is the funders will want to immediately offload their shares and the market has to be there to absorb that. That ability to absorb the stock limits the size of the offering.
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Post by alethea on Feb 1, 2017 18:39:46 GMT -5
So this R/S tells us there is really nothing in the near (next 6-9 months) future that we can realistically expect any reasonable amount of money from. No partnership, sale of company, upfront money for epi partner etc. I assume this is the reason for the sp falling to where it is now. Imho, once the r/s is approved they will announce an offering and raise about $75 - $100 million which will cut the sp in half after the split. This almost guarantees a 10:1 split. With the r/S I expect the share price to be right around $6 with around 45 million shares outstanding / $250 million market cap. Financing soon after will add another 15-20 million shares bringing the sp to around $3 per share. That'll keep them listed for another year or two with about 1 years worth of cash. All imo The market cap at this moment in only $290 million (485M shares x $.60). The PPS will likely drop considerably before the R/S. More likely $4 per share after 10 for 1. That would be roughly a 40% decline from yesterday's closing price.
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Financing
Feb 1, 2017 18:44:15 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by mnkdnewb on Feb 1, 2017 18:44:15 GMT -5
So this R/S tells us there is really nothing in the near (next 6-9 months) future that we can realistically expect any reasonable amount of money from. No partnership, sale of company, upfront money for epi partner etc. I assume this is the reason for the sp falling to where it is now. Imho, once the r/s is approved they will announce an offering and raise about $75 - $100 million which will cut the sp in half after the split. This almost guarantees a 10:1 split. With the r/S I expect the share price to be right around $6 with around 45 million shares outstanding / $250 million market cap. Financing soon after will add another 15-20 million shares bringing the sp to around $3 per share. That'll keep them listed for another year or two with about 1 years worth of cash. All imo The market cap at this moment in only $290 million (485M shares x $.60). The PPS will likely drop considerably before the R/S. More likely $4 per share after 10 for 1. That would be roughly a 40% decline from yesterday's closing price. Ouch. Yes, I think you are closer to reality than my prediction. Then the question is why only up to 10:1?
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Post by alethea on Feb 1, 2017 18:44:51 GMT -5
It's true that the other shoe (stock offering/dilution) may drop. It seems to me that the primary concern at the moment is not being delisted from NASDAQ. I'm not trying to sugar-coat this by saying a R/S won't happen because MNKD will get an extension or sales will pick up...or whatever.
But this action MUST be taken in the event that an extension will not be granted, IMO. Agree. But since the R/S is happening AND since MNKD needs cash so desperately, they MUST raise funds which means further dilution. I was hanging my hat on some funding from the Foundation or the family. And now I've lost faith in their ability to sell the best mealtime insulin in the world. At least now I understand how the Shorts are going to cover.
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 1, 2017 18:52:39 GMT -5
The question I would have had for Matt is why didn't you include this on last year's proxy. I would have as it would have put the floor in last year but if they needed to do the split they would already have had the power. I do agree with Matt in that MNKD is not the typical reverse split situation. In the case of MNKD they have the greatest product in one of the largest pharma markets. Now we will see if they can properly position the product for sale. It was good to hear Mike saying many PWDs are taking 4 or 5 cartridges per day. It was a little disheartening he thought this was bad and giving them a bigger single dose will get them back to three. Nothing wrong with a bigger cartridge in fact they should have the 16u for some T2s but its still not clear Mike is getting phase 1 & 2 pancreas function. If so he would be planning on a minimum of 6 per day and cutting the price accordingly. afrezza right now is to damn expensive.
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Post by chuck on Feb 1, 2017 18:54:20 GMT -5
Matt's going into this reverse split from a standpoint of weakness, not strength. Large risk on the stock price. While splitting the pie into different size pieces doesn't change the size of the pie in a reverse split, the issue is that the market cap is grossly inflated given the situation they are in. As such, even if people's reason for selling is that they changed from 2 ply to 1 ply toilet paper, they are at risk of a large downward plunge to a market cap that more accurately reflects the trouble they find themselves in. A new configuration of a titration pack isn't going to do anything no matter how "excited" it makes them.
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 1, 2017 19:15:32 GMT -5
Matt's going into this reverse split from a standpoint of weakness, not strength. Large risk on the stock price. While splitting the pie into different size pieces doesn't change the size of the pie in a reverse split, the issue is that the market cap is grossly inflated given the situation they are in. As such, even if people's reason for selling is that they changed from 2 ply to 1 ply toilet paper, they are at risk of a large downward plunge to a market cap that more accurately reflects the trouble they find themselves in. A new configuration of a titration pack isn't going to do anything no matter how "excited" it makes them. You are not talking about toilet paper when talking about afrezza. You are talking about the hen which can lay the golden eggs and they need to stop whipping their ass with her. What Matt has is the greatest advance in diabetes care in 90 years. MNKD is sitting on a fully approved diabetes system which can near mimic natural pancreatic insulin release. Nothing on the market can do that and nothing including the much hyped artificial pancreas in the research pipelines can do that.
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Post by wildthing on Feb 1, 2017 20:10:29 GMT -5
Matt's going into this reverse split from a standpoint of weakness, not strength. Large risk on the stock price. While splitting the pie into different size pieces doesn't change the size of the pie in a reverse split, the issue is that the market cap is grossly inflated given the situation they are in. As such, even if people's reason for selling is that they changed from 2 ply to 1 ply toilet paper, they are at risk of a large downward plunge to a market cap that more accurately reflects the trouble they find themselves in. A new configuration of a titration pack isn't going to do anything no matter how "excited" it makes them. You are not talking about toilet paper when talking about afrezza. You are talking about the hen which can lay the golden eggs and they need to stop whipping their ass with her. What Matt has is the greatest advance in diabetes care in 90 years. MNKD is sitting on a fully approved diabetes system which can near mimic natural pancreatic insulin release. Nothing on the market can do that and nothing including the much hyped artificial pancreas in the research pipelines can do that. But isn't it odd that on the two year anniversary of the launch of the "greatest advance in diabetes care in 90 years," MNKD is forced to do a reverse split to avoid delisting?
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 1, 2017 20:25:21 GMT -5
You are not talking about toilet paper when talking about afrezza. You are talking about the hen which can lay the golden eggs and they need to stop whipping their ass with her. What Matt has is the greatest advance in diabetes care in 90 years. MNKD is sitting on a fully approved diabetes system which can near mimic natural pancreatic insulin release. Nothing on the market can do that and nothing including the much hyped artificial pancreas in the research pipelines can do that. But isn't it odd that on the two year anniversary of the launch of the "greatest advance in diabetes care in 90 years," MNKD is forced to do a reverse split to avoid delisting? Odd no, sad yes. In the middle Al Mann passed and prior he was very ill. The great man could hardly walk in the door for his last shareholders meeting. Both Kevin Sayer and Matt worked for Al for years. Al never had 1 or 2 or 3 plans. He always had the 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 11 years plans each with variations. Now, the past is the past and we have a CMO who never knew Al and didn't know what afrezza was until he walked in the door last year. My biggest concern is even after a year, he still may not understand the goose in his hands lays golden eggs. He does not have just another insulin analog and he needs to stop positioning it in the market like it is. He will learn but it has taken too much time. Once he figures it out he will start getting those eggs from the goose.
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Post by falconquest on Feb 1, 2017 20:39:03 GMT -5
But isn't it odd that on the two year anniversary of the launch of the "greatest advance in diabetes care in 90 years," MNKD is forced to do a reverse split to avoid delisting? Odd no, sad yes. In the middle Al Mann passed and prior he was very ill. The great man could hardly walk in the door for his last shareholders meeting. Both Kevin Sayer and Matt worked for Al for years. Al never had 1 or 2 or 3 plans. He always had the 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 11 years plans each with variations. Now, the past is the past and we have a CMO who never knew Al and didn't know what afrezza was until he walked in the door last year. My biggest concern is even after a year, he still may not understand the goose in his hands lays golden eggs. He does not have just another insulin analog and he needs to stop positioning it in the market like it is. He will learn but it has taken too much time. Once he figures it out he will start getting those eggs from the goose. If Matt and team can't convey that to Mr. Marketplace though, it doesn't matter. We all know we have the best insulin product ever developed but if our current team can't market it...........it doesn't matter. We're toast if they can't sell it and what will happen in the end? Some BP will pick it up for a song and make millions. I'll wait.
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Post by bradmel on Feb 1, 2017 21:00:24 GMT -5
This is a long shot and for many reasons it may be a stupid idea but I am going to put it out there anyway. I know many that post here on this board loan out their shares. I do also, over 170,000 shares on loan. What impact would it have on the share price if all the investors who have shares out on loan, withdrew their loaned shares at the same time, say Valentines Day. Could this drive the share price up significantly, even over a dollar? I know the retail shareholder is a very small piece of the pie and if the Major Institutions and Holders are also loaning shares, I am sure they would not be on board even there were no legality issues. As I understand it needs to be over a dollar for 10 consecutive days to reset the clock. Please don't bash me too much. Just grasping for straws to avoid a reverse split.
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 1, 2017 22:43:45 GMT -5
This is a long shot and for many reasons it may be a stupid idea but I am going to put it out there anyway. I know many that post here on this board loan out their shares. I do also, over 170,000 shares on loan. What impact would it have on the share price if all the investors who have shares out on loan, withdrew their loaned shares at the same time, say Valentines Day. Could this drive the share price up significantly, even over a dollar? I know the retail shareholder is a very small piece of the pie and if the Major Institutions and Holders are also loaning shares, I am sure they would not be on board even there were no legality issues. As I understand it needs to be over a dollar for 10 consecutive days to reset the clock. Please don't bash me too much. Just grasping for straws to avoid a reverse split. I could be wrong (I really mean that, I'm not being cute) but I think collusion like that is considered market manipulation and illegal.
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