|
|
Post by silentknight on Feb 9, 2017 10:25:18 GMT -5
I'm curious to know what people think the likelihood of dilution is after the R/S? If people believe it will happen, how soon do you expect it?
As crazy as it sounds, I actually might use the R/S as a chance to average down (more). Obviously, dilution would be disastrous for current shareholders and buying before the dilution would be stupid.
Just trying to time a possible purchase correctly and take advantage of MNKD's weakness, assuming they can eventually right the ship.
*I caveat this by saying that I realize that I'm incredibly stupid for even thinking of investing more money in to MNKD, seeing how I'm six figures underwater. I'm so far in the hole, my warped logic can almost convince me that averaging down my share price to under $2 might actually pay off if we can sell Afrezza to more people nationwide in a week than your average local Chipotle serves in an afternoon.
|
|
|
|
Post by promann on Feb 9, 2017 10:29:17 GMT -5
Chances are good that a R/S will not even happen.. And a dilution probably will not be needed either. Just my opinion that the share price now is about as low as its going to get so this is your best buying opportunity now. Good Luck
|
|
|
|
Post by silentknight on Feb 9, 2017 10:32:40 GMT -5
I'd say the chances the R/S occurs are near 100% but we'll have to agree to disagree on that one...
|
|
|
|
Post by cjm18 on Feb 9, 2017 11:07:35 GMT -5
Chance of 180 day extension granted. 20%
Chance of stock price being above dollar for 10 consecutive days before granted extension. 5%
Chance of neither happening aka r/s. 76%. Xxxxxxxxx
Chance r/s impacts ability to sell afrezza. 0%.
|
|
|
|
Post by sweedee79 on Feb 9, 2017 11:39:54 GMT -5
Chances are the R/S will happen.. and I am in the camp that says it will have to be a 1:10 .. I believe a 1:3 was suggested to ease some fear .. I say this because of the lack of confidence I heard in managements voices the day they announced.. also they have seemed too reactive and defensive .. If there was some other plan in the works I would think they would be a bit more confident... especially Mike C who has shown a great deal of confidence in the past .. but I didn't hear that so much during the announcement ..
I also believe the R/S will be executed right away to prepare for the dilution they will need... My question is will it be enough... they need to start advertising asap ... large scale...
I have been averaging down all this past year ... my average was 3.80 and now it is 1.25 .. I believed it would pop above a buck .. unfortunately that didnt happened...
|
|
|
|
Post by lsl428 on Feb 9, 2017 11:40:10 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Feb 9, 2017 12:27:15 GMT -5
Chances are the R/S will happen.. and I am in the camp that says it will have to be a 1:10 .. I believe a 1:3 was suggested to ease some fear .. I say this because of the lack of confidence I heard in managements voices the day they announced.. also they have seemed too reactive and defensive .. If there was some other plan in the works I would think they would be a bit more confident... especially Mike C who has shown a great deal of confidence in the past .. but I didn't hear that so much during the announcement .. I also believe the R/S will be executed right away to prepare for the dilution they will need... My question is will it be enough... they need to start advertising asap ... large scale... I have been averaging down all this past year ... my average was 3.80 and now it is 1.25 .. I believed it would pop above a buck .. unfortunately that didnt happened... Sweedee, you are going to do great! IMO Good job, you're in a great position. |
|
|
|
Post by derek2 on Feb 9, 2017 14:00:05 GMT -5
I'm curious to know what people think the likelihood of dilution is after the R/S? If people believe it will happen, how soon do you expect it? As crazy as it sounds, I actually might use the R/S as a chance to average down (more). Obviously, dilution would be disastrous for current shareholders and buying before the dilution would be stupid. Just trying to time a possible purchase correctly and take advantage of MNKD's weakness, assuming they can eventually right the ship. *I caveat this by saying that I realize that I'm incredibly stupid for even thinking of investing more money in to MNKD, seeing how I'm six figures underwater. I'm so far in the hole, my warped logic can almost convince me that averaging down my share price to under $2 might actually pay off if we can sell Afrezza to more people nationwide in a week than your average local Chipotle serves in an afternoon. If Matt is smart (and I think he is), he will immediately tap the ATM facility after a R/S, diluting by 10 to 30%. Why? 1. MNKD needs money. Not short term, but definitely medium and long term. 2. The ATM is limited to A. 20M shares and B. $50M dollars. Currently, MNKD would only get $10M at most (probably less, since selling 20M shares would depress the share price.) Do a 10:1 and you could get the whole $50M. That's an extra 2 quarters of runway, and you don't even need an institution or private placement on the other end of the sale. Share count will shrink from 480M to 48M, so the sale of, say, 15M shares will represent dilution of about 25%. |
|
|
|
Post by saxcmann on Feb 9, 2017 14:17:35 GMT -5
I'm curious to know what people think the likelihood of dilution is after the R/S? If people believe it will happen, how soon do you expect it? As crazy as it sounds, I actually might use the R/S as a chance to average down (more). Obviously, dilution would be disastrous for current shareholders and buying before the dilution would be stupid. Just trying to time a possible purchase correctly and take advantage of MNKD's weakness, assuming they can eventually right the ship. *I caveat this by saying that I realize that I'm incredibly stupid for even thinking of investing more money in to MNKD, seeing how I'm six figures underwater. I'm so far in the hole, my warped logic can almost convince me that averaging down my share price to under $2 might actually pay off if we can sell Afrezza to more people nationwide in a week than your average local Chipotle serves in an afternoon. If Matt is smart (and I think he is), he will immediately tap the ATM facility after a R/S, diluting by 10 to 30%. Why? 1. MNKD needs money. Not short term, but definitely medium and long term. 2. The ATM is limited to A. 20M shares and B. $50M dollars. Currently, MNKD would only get $10M at most (probably less, since selling 20M shares would depress the share price.) Do a 10:1 and you could get the whole $50M. That's an extra 2 quarters of runway, and you don't even need an institution or private placement on the other end of the sale. Share count will shrink from 480M to 48M, so the sale of, say, 15M shares will represent dilution of about 25%. This is my bet too. Exactly what will happen. Hopefully with a little good news sprinkled in to keep the pps over $3 after split... |
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Feb 9, 2017 14:21:51 GMT -5
I'm curious to know what people think the likelihood of dilution is after the R/S? If people believe it will happen, how soon do you expect it? As crazy as it sounds, I actually might use the R/S as a chance to average down (more). Obviously, dilution would be disastrous for current shareholders and buying before the dilution would be stupid. Just trying to time a possible purchase correctly and take advantage of MNKD's weakness, assuming they can eventually right the ship. *I caveat this by saying that I realize that I'm incredibly stupid for even thinking of investing more money in to MNKD, seeing how I'm six figures underwater. I'm so far in the hole, my warped logic can almost convince me that averaging down my share price to under $2 might actually pay off if we can sell Afrezza to more people nationwide in a week than your average local Chipotle serves in an afternoon. If Matt is smart (and I think he is), he will immediately tap the ATM facility after a R/S, diluting by 10 to 30%. Why? 1. MNKD needs money. Not short term, but definitely medium and long term. 2. The ATM is limited to A. 20M shares and B. $50M dollars. Currently, MNKD would only get $10M at most (probably less, since selling 20M shares would depress the share price.) Do a 10:1 and you could get the whole $50M. That's an extra 2 quarters of runway, and you don't even need an institution or private placement on the other end of the sale. Share count will shrink from 480M to 48M, so the sale of, say, 15M shares will represent dilution of about 25%. There are a few issues here. One is finding buyers for a lot of stock ahead of a negative catalyst (the R/S). The other is simply selling that volume of stock without completely tanking the market which will screw up the reverse split ratio. In my view the R/S means they cannot sell until 10 days after the R/S. |
|
|
|
Post by careful2invest on Feb 9, 2017 14:33:59 GMT -5
Chance of 180 day extension granted. 20% Chance of stock price being above dollar for 10 consecutive days before granted extension. 5% Chance of neither happening aka r/s. 76%. Xxxxxxxxx Chance r/s impacts ability to sell afrezza. 0%. I agree with all of the above, with this addition... Chance that a reverse split and the dilution that comes with it's effects the ultimate profit potential to an already heavily invested long. 100%If r/s can be avoided, we are all better off. |
|
|
|
Post by quark44 on Feb 9, 2017 14:36:08 GMT -5
If Matt is smart (and I think he is), he will immediately tap the ATM facility after a R/S, diluting by 10 to 30%. Why? 1. MNKD needs money. Not short term, but definitely medium and long term. 2. The ATM is limited to A. 20M shares and B. $50M dollars. Currently, MNKD would only get $10M at most (probably less, since selling 20M shares would depress the share price.) Do a 10:1 and you could get the whole $50M. That's an extra 2 quarters of runway, and you don't even need an institution or private placement on the other end of the sale. Share count will shrink from 480M to 48M, so the sale of, say, 15M shares will represent dilution of about 25%. This is my bet too. Exactly what will happen. Hopefully with a little good news sprinkled in to keep the pps over $3 after split... It seems like the stock will have a steady down trend over the next couple of months while these events play out. Is there any reason not to cash out, even if for a substantial loss, and then reassess later in the Spring? This is torture, but I'm trying to remain logical through this. |
|
|
|
Post by silentknight on Feb 9, 2017 14:39:09 GMT -5
If Matt is smart (and I think he is), he will immediately tap the ATM facility after a R/S, diluting by 10 to 30%. Why? 1. MNKD needs money. Not short term, but definitely medium and long term. 2. The ATM is limited to A. 20M shares and B. $50M dollars. Currently, MNKD would only get $10M at most (probably less, since selling 20M shares would depress the share price.) Do a 10:1 and you could get the whole $50M. That's an extra 2 quarters of runway, and you don't even need an institution or private placement on the other end of the sale. Share count will shrink from 480M to 48M, so the sale of, say, 15M shares will represent dilution of about 25%. This is my bet too. Exactly what will happen. Hopefully with a little good news sprinkled in to keep the pps over $3 after split... I think you both may be right, as much as I hate to admit it and see dilution of that level. A 25% dilution means I'll probably never fully recover from my current losses. I also don't think the share price holds above $3 if they dilute 25%. We'll likely be in the .40s before the split, and even assuming a 10 for 1 R/S, it puts us at $4.50 per share if you split the difference of the .40s. Factor in a 25% loss for dilution, plus the inevitable short attack/sell off on extreme weakness and we'll likely be back under $3 immediately. What a punch in the gut to see your investment dwindle away to nothing. I'm sure the shorts are already foaming at the mouth for easy 35-40% they're going to make as a result of this. |
|
|
|
Post by lakon on Feb 9, 2017 14:42:56 GMT -5
If MNKD is lucky, they can raise $50MM cash with the ATM, but I'm not convinced that it will be all at once. I am convinced that the stock price will continue to fall down to at least $2 during this R/S whether or not the ATM is tapped so the only change would be who gets the money and how fast. MNKD has little choice in the matter unless they have other good news to cherry pick selling into... The only other alternative is a rights offering to avoid dilution IF and ONLY IF the Mann Trust and The Mann Group can pony up. If they can, things could change rapidly, especially if they do something like EYES did...non-transferable UNITS for STOCK with WARRANTS and/or some kind of debt offering/swap that allows existing shareholders to subscribe for additional UNITS that were declined by others... IF, and it's a BIG IF, Mann affiliates can participate fully plus subscribe for those declined by existing shareholders, it could be a tacit approval for taking a majority stake and going private. If enough shareholders declined with an equitable distribution algorithm, it could turn out that the Mann Trust controls the entire company. Soon we will know how much farther Mann affiliates will go to see this through. I'm excited to find out.  |
|
|
|
Post by cjm18 on Feb 9, 2017 14:48:22 GMT -5
Chance of 180 day extension granted. 20% Chance of stock price being above dollar for 10 consecutive days before granted extension. 5% Chance of neither happening aka r/s. 76%. Xxxxxxxxx Chance r/s impacts ability to sell afrezza. 0%. I agree with all of the above, with this addition... Chance that a reverse split and the dilution that comes with it's effects the ultimate profit potential to an already heavily invested long. 100%If r/s can be avoided, we are all better off. The probability of dilution is not impacted by r/s. Either there is another source of money or there isn't. Dilution would hurt investors whether there is r/s or not. |
|
