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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 3, 2017 15:56:33 GMT -5
It doesn't seem like options are yet available for post RS trading. Does anyone know how long it typically takes for that to happen? When another one of my stocks RS. I tried to trade it that day. I wanted to dump it. Wells told me 24 hours before I could. I bitched like hell and they sold the shares for me. Once there are options I'm considering doing a straddle. The premiums may be too painful, but this sure seems like the right time for a straddle. I guess a dilution scenario has small likelihood of having this be the long term share value... but seems way more likely that we will either be significantly lower or significantly higher.
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Post by surplusvalue on Mar 3, 2017 16:01:24 GMT -5
Yep I bought more today. Voices in my head told me to do it I'm well familiar with that voice. It tells me I was a fool for losing so much money in MNKD, yet inexplicably it then tells me that I can redeem myself by buying more at these "low prices". I think I need the investing equivalent of an exorcism. It all makes my head spin. I think there is medication for that. Do you really anticipate recovering your investment now? After this ? At this particular moment in time I have a hard time seeing even half of what I invested here recovered and thats if MNKD does reasonably well. Then again MNKD, even after all this, may not even maintain the listing. The cheerleaders have been pissing in the wind (are there any left?). My perspective could change if MNKD comes out with something soon to support the split. But that's a big if as we discussed previously.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 3, 2017 16:12:08 GMT -5
I'm well familiar with that voice. It tells me I was a fool for losing so much money in MNKD, yet inexplicably it then tells me that I can redeem myself by buying more at these "low prices". I think I need the investing equivalent of an exorcism. It all makes my head spin. I think there is medication for that. Do you really anticipate recovering your investment now? After this ? At this particular moment in time I have a hard time seeing even half of what I invested here recovered and thats if MNKD does reasonably well. Then again MNKD, even after all this, may not maintain the listing. The cheerleaders here are pissing in the wind. My perspective could change if MNKD comes out with something soon to support the split. But that's a big if as we discussed previously. At my current avg cost (something just under $4 pre RS) I don't think it likely I'd come out whole. I would consider one or both of the following to perhaps better my position. 1) An option straddle now... or maybe just buying puts as hedge against my already significantly large long position. 2) AFTER there is (if ever) very solid evidence that Afrezza has overcome the significant roadblocks to market growth, there could still be opportunity to buy more and average down my cost. Those of us that follow MNKD closely may have a reasonable window of buying opportunity. Unless MNKD is acquired I don't think share price shoots up to immediately represent a blockbuster drug, it is going to be a long road to build market share. I think we'll have some indicators before MNKD becomes a wall street darling again. Of course there is what I put in parentheses.
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Post by charlespk on Mar 3, 2017 16:18:09 GMT -5
Does today count as a successful retest of our all time low if we manage to close above $2.05? Dreamboat , good question , don't know what will happen any more Can someone explain why if they had authorization for up to a 1:10 , why they did not do it . A 1:5 as done , puts us to close to a potential PPS below 1 again . I love the medication ,believe in it , but don't they have a fudiciary responsability to us shareholders ?
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Post by mango on Mar 3, 2017 17:25:05 GMT -5
Yup, worthless. I used to dig up all of their patents and was excited to read about all the different technologies they have patented or filed for protection. But none have delivered any value and I don't expect this management to be able to monetize any of it in a significant way, hence my "worthless" valuation of these technologies.MannKind does not need nor have to be the ones to "monetize" their partners technologies. TechnoVax has next generation VLP technology that no one else has, hence: TechnoVax received a second Phase II approval along with $999.3K from the DoD (Army branch) SBIR program in September 2016. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/5644/technovax-mintaka-foundation-lifesci-partners?page=5#ixzz4aIvJhVDCMight be worthless to you, but the government thinks otherwise.
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Post by humann on Mar 3, 2017 17:34:21 GMT -5
Now that RS has occurred, I partially bought back in. I know emotions seem heated on either side, but what has happened (negative market reaction to RS) seems to have been a reasonable expectation... which is why I sold pre-RS. I expect that if Afrezza is going to succeed, we will know in the next couple months, once the new sales team is rolling. I intend to roll back into my original position between now and then. If it fails, I'll lose what was left of my original investment, if it progresses, sitting out the RS will have lowered my break-even point. Good luck, longs!
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Post by madog365 on Mar 3, 2017 17:43:09 GMT -5
Does today count as a successful retest of our all time low if we manage to close above $2.05? Dreamboat , good question , don't know what will happen any more Can someone explain why if they had authorization for up to a 1:10 , why they did not do it . A 1:5 as done , puts us to close to a potential PPS below 1 again . I love the medication ,believe in it , but don't they have a fudiciary responsability to us shareholders ? To answer your question about 1:10 , the reasoning management provided was that they determined it would send a bearish signal to the market.
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Post by Cowgirl on Mar 3, 2017 17:56:57 GMT -5
They are such great "Market" guru's...like when Hakkan was asking on a conference call if there were any partners out there. My gosh. Please don't count of MNKD management to know much about signals in the market or how to work financing or strategy for a biotech. We are running out of money, we have virtually no sales, and will need cash in 3-4 months. Dilution at the bottom - no partners - weak hands for getting any today etc.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 3, 2017 17:57:31 GMT -5
Now that RS has occurred, I partially bought back in. I know emotions seem heated on either side, but what has happened (negative market reaction to RS) seems to have been a reasonable expectation... which is why I sold pre-RS. I expect that if Afrezza is going to succeed, we will know in the next couple months, once the new sales team is rolling. I intend to roll back into my original position between now and then. If it fails, I'll lose what was left of my original investment, if it progresses, sitting out the RS will have lowered my break-even point. Good luck, longs! As long as you use the secret handshake phrase at the end of your post I'm sure you can still be a "true long" (TM) even while liquidating a lot of your position Wish I'd done the same. My rationale for not selling with the announcement of RS vote was not a sound one.
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Post by falconquest on Mar 3, 2017 18:18:34 GMT -5
They are such great "Market" guru's...like when Hakkan was asking on a conference call if there were any partners out there. My gosh. Please don't count of MNKD management to know much about signals in the market or how to work financing or strategy for a biotech. We are running out of money, we have virtually no sales, and will need cash in 3-4 months. Dilution at the bottom - no partners - weak hands for getting any today etc. Matt has proven that he is tone deaf when it comes to the market. He felt the Sanofi settlement would "go a long way" toward causing the share price to recover to $1.00, we know how that worked out. And now Matt wants to provide guidance on sales? Talk about a recipe for disaster! We would have been much better off if Desisto had been able to stay. I knew this share price would tank after the reverse. The decision to go 5:1 was very shortsighted. You have to know the stock will take a hit especially if you don't have any positive news to announce along with it. To choose that path over a 10:1 is just.......(sorry) dumb! Mr. Castagna better start to work some magic because Matt ain't gonna get us there.
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Post by seanismorris on Mar 3, 2017 18:56:58 GMT -5
A RS is always bearish regardless of what the ratio is. A RS is an acknowledgement that the bears were right and a turnaround isn't likely (at least in the near term). If management didn't think they could get above $5 it didn't really matter what the ratio was (as long as it got them above $1).
Also, a RS is an opportunity for bears to double down on a winner (if you're short). And, the odds are in their favor that a company that went through a RS will continue to be a winner.
I've owned stock in two companies that did a reverse splits, the stock in one recovered a bit, up 50% from the split level, but still down huge from the initial investment. The other company went out of business...
What a RS is, is an opportunity for management to reset expectations. If they can rise the stock price 15%+ for the next 5 years they can pat themselves on the back. Unfortunately for pre split investors that is a small consolation. In MannKind's situation we can hope for a lot more then 15%, but getting back to $50 ($10) would be an epic achievement.
I suppose the best way we can look at it is MNKD has become a trading opportunity, and it might now be a good buy for a bounce. The bad news is we have to right off most of our initial investment.
I don't know about you, but my ammo is gone.
The price action today wasn't a surprise... I think the market is pricing in further dilution.
----- What I am expecting from the CC is a reset of expectations. I think they're going to talk more about the pipeline. They're going to talk about Afrezza's sales efforts, but with less of an 'all in' attitude. The problem continues to be cash burn. I bet they're starting to consider spinning off Afrezza internally (but not on call). They went all in on Afrezza...but without some serious dilution or a partner the situation is unmanageable.
The call will likely remain optimistic, but internal discussions are probably about survival mode. The pipeline doesn't really justify a $100 million dollar evaluation. The only blockbuster potential they had was in pain (other than Afrezza)... we never got to see how Torrey Pines turned out so I'm not that optimistic.
The CC after this next one is where things get interesting. I expect a more realistic evaluation of where they are at. Dilution may already have happened (by this call). The problem with dilution is the current market evaluation, I don't think they can raise enough money this way to see Afrezza through to profitability. They need to bankroll Afrezza for at least another year...
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Post by kc on Mar 3, 2017 19:03:42 GMT -5
Such a disappointing time. I do hope one day in the future we get to see the benefit of our Investment. I guess we are on the ship to the very end . I just hope we get a life preserver before it goes down. I don't know if management is really doing fair job of trying to sell the product or if they should be selling The company.
At this point I need a wing and a prayer to get me by for a better day.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 3, 2017 19:17:06 GMT -5
We could also be witnessing a scenario where the CEO and Board of Directors have faith in the quality of the new sales force and marketing plan. I was reminded by another post today regarding FDA approval to use the latest PK/PD data, that few may be considering that such action is certainly a possibility in the near term and a separate decision by the FDA than the 10-month review of the request by MannKind that Afrezza be approved to be reclassified as ultra-rapid. Certainly the FDA may approve marketing that tells consumers how much faster Afrezza is than other mealtime insulin. The post-market trial data can be parsed to receive more than one approval from the FDA. The approval to use the latest data in marketing Afrezza, a new high-caliber sales force (which have only been been working their territories for a couple weeks) and other information (i.e. pediatric trial, Epinephrine IND application, regulatory approvals for ex-U.S. marketing of Afrezza) to be disclosed at the upcoming earnings conference may be behind the decision by the BoD to opt for the 5:1 reverse split. All the company activities that management has been discussing with shareholders and analysts at recent conferences didn't just come to a screeching halt. Clearly the 5:1 split is meant to communicate optimism that positive (dare I say "pivotal"?) events will be happening shortly.
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1:5 split
Mar 3, 2017 19:26:04 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by mnkdnewb on Mar 3, 2017 19:26:04 GMT -5
Dreamboat , good question , don't know what will happen any more Can someone explain why if they had authorization for up to a 1:10 , why they did not do it . A 1:5 as done , puts us to close to a potential PPS below 1 again . I love the medication ,believe in it , but don't they have a fudiciary responsability to us shareholders ? To answer your question about 1:10 , the reasoning management provided was that they determined it would send a bearish signal to the market. So they care about how the company is perceived more than what is needed. This is scarier than 1:10 if true
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Post by humann on Mar 3, 2017 19:43:03 GMT -5
Now that RS has occurred, I partially bought back in. I know emotions seem heated on either side, but what has happened (negative market reaction to RS) seems to have been a reasonable expectation... which is why I sold pre-RS. I expect that if Afrezza is going to succeed, we will know in the next couple months, once the new sales team is rolling. I intend to roll back into my original position between now and then. If it fails, I'll lose what was left of my original investment, if it progresses, sitting out the RS will have lowered my break-even point. Good luck, longs! As long as you use the secret handshake phrase at the end of your post I'm sure you can still be a "true long" (TM) even while liquidating a lot of your position Wish I'd done the same. My rationale for not selling with the announcement of RS vote was not a sound one. It is not very often that I feel highly confident about short term movements, but the looming RS seemed like one of those times where it was clear; I just wanted to have acted on at least one rational judgement with this investment I still suspect it may go down further, but I am getting back in. I hope being down 75%+ and still owning qualifies for True Long TM! I'm still interested enough to give the new sales team a chance.
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