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Post by agedhippie on Mar 3, 2017 22:19:48 GMT -5
We could also be witnessing a scenario where the CEO and Board of Directors have faith in the quality of the new sales force and marketing plan. I was reminded by another post today regarding FDA approval to use the latest PK/PD data, that few may be considering that such action is certainly a possibility in the near term and a separate decision by the FDA than the 10-month review of the request by MannKind that Afrezza be approved to be reclassified as ultra-rapid. Certainly the FDA may approve marketing that tells consumers how much faster Afrezza is than other mealtime insulin. The post-market trial data can be parsed to receive more than one approval from the FDA. The approval to use the latest data in marketing Afrezza, a new high-caliber sales force (which have only been been working their territories for a couple weeks) and other information (i.e. pediatric trial, Epinephrine IND application, regulatory approvals for ex-U.S. marketing of Afrezza) to be disclosed at the upcoming earnings conference may be behind the decision by the BoD to opt for the 5:1 reverse split. All the company activities that management has been discussing with shareholders and analysts at recent conferences didn't just come to a screeching halt. Clearly the 5:1 split is meant to communicate optimism that positive (dare I say "pivotal"?) events will be happening shortly. I don't think that idea holds water. The size of the split makes no difference to a recovery - the indicator is the market cap, not the share price and the market knows that. For a 5:1 split to communicate optimism management needs a track record of accurate forecasts...
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Post by falconquest on Mar 3, 2017 22:27:03 GMT -5
We could also be witnessing a scenario where the CEO and Board of Directors have faith in the quality of the new sales force and marketing plan. I was reminded by another post today regarding FDA approval to use the latest PK/PD data, that few may be considering that such action is certainly a possibility in the near term and a separate decision by the FDA than the 10-month review of the request by MannKind that Afrezza be approved to be reclassified as ultra-rapid. Certainly the FDA may approve marketing that tells consumers how much faster Afrezza is than other mealtime insulin. The post-market trial data can be parsed to receive more than one approval from the FDA. The approval to use the latest data in marketing Afrezza, a new high-caliber sales force (which have only been been working their territories for a couple weeks) and other information (i.e. pediatric trial, Epinephrine IND application, regulatory approvals for ex-U.S. marketing of Afrezza) to be disclosed at the upcoming earnings conference may be behind the decision by the BoD to opt for the 5:1 reverse split. All the company activities that management has been discussing with shareholders and analysts at recent conferences didn't just come to a screeching halt. Clearly the 5:1 split is meant to communicate optimism that positive (dare I say "pivotal"?) events will be happening shortly. mn, Unfortunately the track record of management has not been one of achieving goals. While I would really like to think that you're right, until management can prove success we are relegated to poverty in my opinion. The street isn't as "in the know" as perhaps those on this board which is why our share price has tanked. You're right, company activities have not come to a halt but they're not showing any sign of success either. Until something fundamentally positive happens there will be no significant appreciation in share price.
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Post by surplusvalue on Mar 3, 2017 23:16:01 GMT -5
We could also be witnessing a scenario where the CEO and Board of Directors have faith in the quality of the new sales force and marketing plan. I was reminded by another post today regarding FDA approval to use the latest PK/PD data, that few may be considering that such action is certainly a possibility in the near term and a separate decision by the FDA than the 10-month review of the request by MannKind that Afrezza be approved to be reclassified as ultra-rapid. Certainly the FDA may approve marketing that tells consumers how much faster Afrezza is than other mealtime insulin. The post-market trial data can be parsed to receive more than one approval from the FDA. The approval to use the latest data in marketing Afrezza, a new high-caliber sales force (which have only been been working their territories for a couple weeks) and other information (i.e. pediatric trial, Epinephrine IND application, regulatory approvals for ex-U.S. marketing of Afrezza) to be disclosed at the upcoming earnings conference may be behind the decision by the BoD to opt for the 5:1 reverse split. All the company activities that management has been discussing with shareholders and analysts at recent conferences didn't just come to a screeching halt. Clearly the 5:1 split is meant to communicate optimism that positive (dare I say "pivotal"?) events will be happening shortly. What we're witnessing is the result of management's incompetence that a reverse had to be done in the first place for all the reasons discussed elsewhere. Were you not the person who tried to convince everyone that a "reverse was just a splitting of the pie" and had no effect on the value of the shares held by investors? I stated that this was rubbish (at best disingenuous) since it was well known, at least by those of us here who have experienced reverses, that the sp is pressured downward before and after a split.(even worse if accompanied by dilution ) If you noticed the sp lost more than 20% in the last two days. Now you want to spin this fiasco, even if it is 1 for 5, as potentially positive because MNKD might have better marketing material approval waiting in the wings? Well at least you're consistent. They did the 1 for 5 because they were not using the split to set up dilution conditions but to deal with the listing. It's questionable now, even with the reverse, whether they will be able to maintain the listing given where the SP is, how long they have to go and the fact that they didnt meet the required timelines. This "scenario" is anything but grounds for optimism. As I said before, and as seanismorris said above, none of this even if your suggestion comes true is any consolation to existing underwater presplit investors. The damage is done and some extra selling material will not change this despite your idea that this is supposed to communicate optimism. This is almost on par with the CEO's statement that the reverse was done from a position of strength. Finally, I have from the beginning repeated that unless a reverse is accompanied by something substantial to support it that the consequences will be grave. So yes we are waiting to see if management has something else. With all due respect, additional marketing material from PK/PD data will not cut it. Its use while very important will be rather slow to provide support to the continuing effects of the RS and the immediate problem that this is a targeted stock. Likewise the other things you mention except for maybe a foreign deal will arrive too late to the present scene. Nice cheerleading though especially with the happy face after what just happened.
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1:5 split
Mar 3, 2017 23:36:25 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by vestful on Mar 3, 2017 23:36:25 GMT -5
How many here put money against it today? Who's going to admit?
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1:5 split
Mar 3, 2017 23:46:08 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by vestful on Mar 3, 2017 23:46:08 GMT -5
A lot of fakes
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 4, 2017 4:40:45 GMT -5
As long as you use the secret handshake phrase at the end of your post I'm sure you can still be a "true long" (TM) even while liquidating a lot of your position Wish I'd done the same. My rationale for not selling with the announcement of RS vote was not a sound one. It is not very often that I feel highly confident about short term movements, but the looming RS seemed like one of those times where it was clear; I just wanted to have acted on at least one rational judgement with this investment I still suspect it may go down further, but I am getting back in. I hope being down 75%+ and still owning qualifies for True Long TM! I'm still interested enough to give the new sales team a chance. Merely 75%... oh, no, that isn't a a true long... it may be "true" but not truly a long timer here. Many of us are down 90%+ or worse. Some sadly would be 95% or worse. Strange when you think that being 90% down means you have twice the amount left verse being 95% down. Always someone a little bit worse off. I do suspect the same.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 4, 2017 4:48:29 GMT -5
We could also be witnessing a scenario where the CEO and Board of Directors have faith in the quality of the new sales force and marketing plan. \ Yes... but too often management and the board seem to have faith in things that don't come to fruition. We could very well be witnessing that again.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2017 9:23:29 GMT -5
How many here put money against it today? Who's going to admit? Do you mean shorting MNKD? Fidelity does not have short shares, and I stand by my theory that the big boys get first dibs. I would have shorted today if they were available. Probably going to buy some puts
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Post by avogadro on Mar 4, 2017 10:29:53 GMT -5
I almost forgot that I still hold 10 MNKD Calls for Jan '18 at 1.00. How does the split affect this sterling holding?
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Post by boca1girl on Mar 4, 2017 10:31:55 GMT -5
Fidelity returned all of my loaned shares on 3/2 and they have not been lent out since. So I don't now why they told you no shares were available.
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1:5 split
Mar 4, 2017 10:36:39 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2017 10:36:39 GMT -5
I almost forgot that I still hold 10 MNKD Calls for Jan '18 at 1.00. How does the split affect this sterling holding? You get 20 shares at the strike price than the original 100 shares per contract if you exercise them. Nothing else gets adjusted except your leverage is reduced in the same ratio as the reverse split. Above is for existing options and they will be marked NS . The new options that are based of post split- I am not sure when they will be listed
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 4, 2017 15:25:11 GMT -5
To all who responded to my "optimistic" post, you all make excellent points and, frankly, I think you are closer to the truth than I am. I simply was reading so much gloom and doom that I felt compelled to present one or two positive scenarios to bring some balance to the discussion.
There is plenty of gloom, but I still think that while a cash runway exists, it's too soon to endorse doom.
Good fortune all.
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1:5 split
Mar 4, 2017 17:54:12 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2017 17:54:12 GMT -5
To all who responded to my "optimistic" post, you all make excellent points and, frankly, I think you are closer to the truth than I am. I simply was reading so much gloom and doom that I felt compelled to present one or two positive scenarios to bring some balance to the discussion. There is plenty of gloom, but I still think that while a cash runway exists, it's too soon to endorse doom. Good fortune all. Cash run way exists until q3 which is July 1 . Which is 4 months away . Does that consider that 20 mil debt that's due?
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 4, 2017 18:10:17 GMT -5
I read the following in a comments thread on SA today. It sounds reasonable, but I can't vouch for its accuracy. If anyone knows for certain, do speak up:
"The reverse split does help shorts in two ways. Some brokers have minimum margin requirements per share, for example Interactive Brokers requires $2.50/sh. What this means is you need the same $2.50 margin to short a $2 stock as you do a 40c stock. So stocks with prices over $2.50 get a lot more bang for your buck. Also, the borrow cost is calculated by first rounding up to the nearest dollar then using that as the collateral base for which to pay the rebate rate."
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Post by slugworth008 on Mar 5, 2017 12:06:23 GMT -5
To all who responded to my "optimistic" post, you all make excellent points and, frankly, I think you are closer to the truth than I am. I simply was reading so much gloom and doom that I felt compelled to present one or two positive scenarios to bring some balance to the discussion. There is plenty of gloom, but I still think that while a cash runway exists, it's too soon to endorse doom. Good fortune all. Perhaps latent success will breed a stock split - So longs can recapture some lost shares. Just a ridiculous thought on my part - but WTH right?
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