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Post by lakon on Mar 5, 2017 3:45:02 GMT -5
Next year we will likely have another FDA approved drug. 450M in your dreams. I tend to agree IF Trump gets the FDA in line. I find it hard to believe that MannKind and Mann affiliates cannot put together enough money to cause a significant decline in short interest. The subsequent result would be to raise the current market price significantly. The ATM facility could be used to sell into short covering to raise enough to pay back old debt and finance a few years going forward for commercialization. A successful commercialization seems held back primarily by a lack of funds for an aggressive marketing campaign, like Apple pursued against Microsoft with those (now old) ads of the Mac-guy and PC-guy. Some kind of homage to those ads would be a fantastic pop culture attack against BP. I'm not sure how to pull it off without a Trump card keeping the FDA at bay. (Considering that two of the main competitors are foreign adversaries that have been abusing the American system, perhaps, it is time to use a little old school Atlantic City business tactics against them.) Losing Al Mann was a huge loss; however, he may have been too old school for such an idea anyway. It could be relatively easy to pull something off, like the Mac-guy ads, on the Internet as an independent entity outside the jurisdiction of the US FDA; however, MannKind does not appear to have such chutzpah on their own. That said, matt makes a very sound evaluation thus far with respect to fair market value (fair value is another story) under the current circumstances of what is actually known for sure. On a few threads, I've mentioned that MNKD must address the debt situation, preferably, through a renegotiation that would be market moving. If they are successful, matt can change his assessment about "the must resolve with cash". In another thread, he mentioned that the preferred shares could be used to sell to anyone offering a substantial investment. To that I would like to add that the preferred shares could be offered to debt holders with a very sweet dividend return after certain milestones are met, kind of like the Buffett/Goldman deal of 2009. My preference would be that MNKD sell the preferred shares to someone like Warren Buffett, Peter Thiel, or Elon Musk, for the cash and market moving sentiment. Any big player like that knows how to WIN BIG and make FAST MONEY! My gut tells me that political ideologies keep them away, especially Buffett, but Thiel and Musk are far more pragmatic. Also, Musk is very experienced with short interests, cult stocks, regulators, and tweets. A better play would be a debt consolidation of some sort from a friendly entity who is a long term believer in the story AND willing to SAY SO PUBLICLY. By selling new debt to such an entity, they could clean up their balance sheet, postpone payments further, and eliminate bankruptcy fears. By using debt instruments, they could keep the listing on the TASE. Either way, they need less debt payments and more cash to spend on aggressive advertising. The drug is not going to sell itself, at least not yet, unfortunately. MannKind and Mann affiliates have not done the obvious things necessary to eliminate the immediate drag on the stock price. Perhaps, they cannot for some reason. We know that they may not for many reasons. That's the bet made that is demonstrated by the short interest. I find many things discouraging by the choices that management makes; however, they do seem to get there albeit more slowly than I would like. They are either too constrained, or they lack the will to fight fire with fire. They need a wartime consigliere, and they need to take the gloves off. They may also be constrained by their own political beliefs and affiliations. If nothing, I expect Chairman Kresa to be pragmatic, given his long history and association with the US government. (Al Mann, as well, but he is gone.) Kent should pull as many strings as possible to get himself and CEO MattP in front of Trump with a story to sell. If not Trump, at least, get in front of the prosecutors for the case against the big 3 competitors. They need free publicity and free rein. MannKind is an American business with technology built from American ingenuity and R&D. Let's keep it American, and let's make it great again!
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Post by falconquest on Mar 5, 2017 8:51:40 GMT -5
Next year we will likely have another FDA approved drug. 450M in your dreams. I tend to agree IF Trump gets the FDA in line.... To use your political analogy (I have no interest in delving into actual politics however) Matt's problem is that he is not controlling the narrative. He is allowing events to drive his agenda rather than establishing a strong agenda and moving forward with it. Now, in deference to his abilities, if there is a strong agenda then he is not communicating it adequately to his constituents (shareholders). This thesis is borne out by the reaction of so many posters here. They are slowly losing confidence in Matt. Once that happens he won't be able to recover just as could happen to a politician that gets caught in a negative incident and denies facts. Matt needs to make some bold moves in my opinion and make them quickly. If there are no powerful market movers out there willing to step up and help Mannkind (as you suggest) then that also tells us something. Matt has Mannkind in a make or break position and however wonderful we all think Michael Casatgna is, he had better start to produce. He has been here long enough that he could have personally gone out and sold more scripts than are selling now.
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 5, 2017 14:13:29 GMT -5
"He (Mike Castagna) has been here long enough that he could have personally gone out and sold more scripts than are selling now."
Well said, Falcon!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2017 14:14:27 GMT -5
Fair value as of today is 2.13 post split.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 5, 2017 14:14:51 GMT -5
Nobody knows what capital the Mann group has left to do that. From an article in Aug 2016... I don't believe that these "exits" have yet happened for the companies that have been spun off. $85 million would likely give them some room to participate in MNKD equity round, especially if the prospects of these "exits" were looking good, and assuming they weren't talking about exiting their MNKD position.
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Post by golfeveryday on Mar 5, 2017 14:47:58 GMT -5
The short position on this stock is likely not going to exit until they absolutely have to exit. If it's the main competitors shorting and dragging this stock down they do not care about a squeeze. They want to bankrupt the company. They have more to lose if Afrezza succeeds than via a short squeeze if news is announced. We need multiple significant milestones as well as Rx growth. Just my opinion.
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Post by benh on Mar 5, 2017 17:19:02 GMT -5
Fair value as of today is 2.13 post split. Morning Star are in agreement. They had .42 pre-split. Today, 2.08.
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 5, 2017 17:37:19 GMT -5
The short position on this stock is likely not going to exit until they absolutely have to exit. If it's the main competitors shorting and dragging this stock down they do not care about a squeeze. They want to bankrupt the company. They have more to lose if Afrezza succeeds than via a short squeeze if news is announced. We need multiple significant milestones as well as Rx growth. Just my opinion. There is some confusion here. It's not that shorts want Mannkind to go bankrupt, it's that they expect Mannkind to go bankrupt. Don't confuse the two. Shorts cannot bankrupt a successful company if they sell people will snap up the stock. There is no conspiracy, this is all Mannkind's own work - they are spending $10M per month and has revenues maybe $1M per month with inadequate cash reserves - that's not survivable. That's all the shorts need to see.
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 5, 2017 18:00:59 GMT -5
The short position on this stock is likely not going to exit until they absolutely have to exit. If it's the main competitors shorting and dragging this stock down they do not care about a squeeze. They want to bankrupt the company. They have more to lose if Afrezza succeeds than via a short squeeze if news is announced. We need multiple significant milestones as well as Rx growth. Just my opinion. There is some confusion here. It's not that shorts want Mannkind to go bankrupt, it's that they expect Mannkind to go bankrupt. That's not what the latest issue of the 'Big Pharma Conspiracy Monthly' newsletter said.
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Post by tingtongtung on Mar 5, 2017 18:35:06 GMT -5
"He (Mike Castagna) has been here long enough that he could have personally gone out and sold more scripts than are selling now." Well said, Falcon! That, and don't we have 10-20 that take Afrezza here? That's ~10% of the NRx. All these are without efforts from MNKD (their own research, or word of mouth by people here). So, what exactly is MNKD and its employees are doing? I know they are working with insurance, etc.. But, Drs are not prescribing and patients are not asking. Why keep on trying to build the support structure when no one is coming? I know support structure is important, but MNKD doesn't have time and money to wait out. They have to start selling and bringing money *yesterday*.. I'm sure, if all the 60-70 FTE camp out at one or two Drs who are OK with prescribing Afrezza, and educate all their patients one by one and manage them *by hand* day to day, we will have a higher script number.
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Post by compound26 on Mar 5, 2017 18:40:43 GMT -5
"He (Mike Castagna) has been here long enough that he could have personally gone out and sold more scripts than are selling now." Well said, Falcon! That, and don't we have 10-20 that take Afrezza here? That's ~10% of the NRx. All these are without efforts from MNKD (their own research, or word of mouth by people here). So, what exactly is MNKD and its employees are doing? I know they are working with insurance, etc.. But, Drs are not prescribing and patients are not asking. Why keep on trying to build the support structure when no one is coming? I know support structure is important, but MNKD doesn't have time and money to wait out. They have to start selling and bringing money *yesterday*.. I'm sure, if all the 60-70 FTE camp out at one or two Drs who are OK with prescribing Afrezza, and educate all their patients one by one and manage them *by hand* day to day, we will have a higher script number. "That, and don't we have 10-20 that take Afrezza here? That's ~10% of the NRx." Are you assuming that every Afrezza user getting a NRx every week?
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Post by buyitonsale on Mar 5, 2017 18:59:25 GMT -5
Rights offering for Afrezza alone will fetch over 2 Billion IMO, if it comes to that decision.
Wait until the label change this year and then pediatric trials are done.
New EPI drug will instantly create an opportunity and gain market share. MNKD may choose to offer rights also to provide runway for Afrezza.
The story is about IP right now. The rest is FUD.
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Post by falconquest on Mar 5, 2017 19:37:47 GMT -5
Rights offering for Afrezza alone will fetch over 2 Billion IMO, if it comes to that decision. Wait until the label change this year and then pediatric trials are done. New EPI drug will instantly create an opportunity and gain market share. MNKD may choose to offer rights also to provide runway for Afrezza. The story is about IP right now. The rest is FUD. While I would like to agree with you, the story is about selling Afrezza and that's all it's about right now. I would love to believe that EPI will help save us but that's a hail Mary in my book. We need to get Afrezza/Technosphere accepted in the marketplace............now!
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Post by tingtongtung on Mar 5, 2017 19:55:34 GMT -5
That, and don't we have 10-20 that take Afrezza here? That's ~10% of the NRx. All these are without efforts from MNKD (their own research, or word of mouth by people here). So, what exactly is MNKD and its employees are doing? I know they are working with insurance, etc.. But, Drs are not prescribing and patients are not asking. Why keep on trying to build the support structure when no one is coming? I know support structure is important, but MNKD doesn't have time and money to wait out. They have to start selling and bringing money *yesterday*.. I'm sure, if all the 60-70 FTE camp out at one or two Drs who are OK with prescribing Afrezza, and educate all their patients one by one and manage them *by hand* day to day, we will have a higher script number. "That, and don't we have 10-20 that take Afrezza here? That's ~10% of the NRx." Are you assuming that every Afrezza user getting a NRx every week? Dont take it personally. I meant it to be a ballpark Rx number (doesn't refill considered as NRx, and hence some repeat users are always NRx every week?) I'm not saying that MNKD isn't doing anything. All I'm saying is, somehow what they are doing, is not producing results.. Total Rx is ~350/wk. They have about 50-60 staff (contract before, and since the last week(?) FTE). This definitely doesn't look good. What prevents MNKD from buying up patient contact list (illegal?), and contacting them individually and work with them individually, and help them hooked (!) up with Afrezza? Clearly Drs are not prescribing it, and patients don't know about it to ask for it. I'm aware of the label change, Epi, RLS, etc. But, MNKD has always been reacting way too late since the beginning (Sanofi, Desisto, minor dilution, RS, no 10:1 and dilution now). I don't know how confident/realistic they are with label change, Epi, RLS, and hence they are cool with low script numbers. Didn't Matt essentially say that he believed Sanofi settlement would move MNKD over a dollar? I believe Matt is a good guy. But, they could be over-confident/not accepting their strategy may not be the right one?? I know I'm not the expert, and don't know what's the best/right way of doing it. If I knew, I wouldn't be sitting here, and writing comments. :-)
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Post by buyitonsale on Mar 5, 2017 20:37:11 GMT -5
Rights offering for Afrezza alone will fetch over 2 Billion IMO, if it comes to that decision. Wait until the label change this year and then pediatric trials are done. New EPI drug will instantly create an opportunity and gain market share. MNKD may choose to offer rights also to provide runway for Afrezza. The story is about IP right now. The rest is FUD. While I would like to agree with you, the story is about selling Afrezza and that's all it's about right now. I would love to believe that EPI will help save us but that's a hail Mary in my book. We need to get Afrezza/Technosphere accepted in the marketplace............now! This thread is about the Fair value for the stock. That is the story I am referring to. There is a disconnect between the value of IP and the stock. As if the IP does not matter... MNKD has about 18 months of runway with the current cash position plus authorized shares balance, if needed. A lot of things are in play in 2017 and 2018 that will position the IP even better. Scripts cannot gain traction without advertising. BP would spend at least 100M a year on TV commercials. If that happened for the last 2 years, sales revenue would most likely already exceed the advertising spend. Take the current scripts out of the story but market is pretending that that is all the story is about. Not true. I cannot predict the future but the IP value is what this story is about.
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