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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2017 20:38:53 GMT -5
18 months 👌. When Mannkind themselves say cash runway into third quarter. You crack me up. 😳
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2017 20:40:02 GMT -5
If we had 18 months of runway we would have traded at 4 pre split
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Post by kbrion77 on Mar 5, 2017 20:51:08 GMT -5
While I would like to agree with you, the story is about selling Afrezza and that's all it's about right now. I would love to believe that EPI will help save us but that's a hail Mary in my book. We need to get Afrezza/Technosphere accepted in the marketplace............now! This thread is about the Fair value for the stock. That is the story I am referring to. There is a disconnect between the value of IP and the stock. As if the IP does not matter... MNKD has about 18 months of runway with the current cash position plus authorized shares balance, if needed. A lot of things are in play in 2017 and 2018 that will position the IP even better. Scripts cannot gain traction without advertising. BP would spend at least 100M a year on TV commercials. If that happened for the last 2 years, sales revenue would most likely already exceed the advertising spend. Take the current scripts out of the story but market is pretending that that is all the story is about. Not true. I cannot predict the future but the IP value is what this story is about. Obnoxious and pumping post. Please breakdown how current cash (do you know what cash is currently at?) will last 18 months. Thanks.
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Post by falconquest on Mar 5, 2017 21:46:30 GMT -5
While I would like to agree with you, the story is about selling Afrezza and that's all it's about right now. I would love to believe that EPI will help save us but that's a hail Mary in my book. We need to get Afrezza/Technosphere accepted in the marketplace............now! This thread is about the Fair value for the stock. That is the story I am referring to. There is a disconnect between the value of IP and the stock. As if the IP does not matter... MNKD has about 18 months of runway with the current cash position plus authorized shares balance, if needed. A lot of things are in play in 2017 and 2018 that will position the IP even better. Scripts cannot gain traction without advertising. BP would spend at least 100M a year on TV commercials. If that happened for the last 2 years, sales revenue would most likely already exceed the advertising spend. Take the current scripts out of the story but market is pretending that that is all the story is about. Not true. I cannot predict the future but the IP value is what this story is about. Ok, have it your way this is about fair value of the stock and you want to base it on IP. So what is the value of IP if no one wants it? What is the value of Afrezza or Technosphere if no one wants it? Lots of folks have wanted to challenge this point and I keep beating the same old dead horse. the only thing that matters is the sale of our product. That's it, bottom line, end of story.
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 5, 2017 21:59:06 GMT -5
MNKD has about 18 months of runway with the current cash position plus authorized shares balance, if needed. A lot of things are in play in 2017 and 2018 that will position the IP even better. Scripts cannot gain traction without advertising. BP would spend at least 100M a year on TV commercials. If that happened for the last 2 years, sales revenue would most likely already exceed the advertising spend. Take the current scripts out of the story but market is pretending that that is all the story is about. Not true. Obnoxious and pumping post. Please breakdown how current cash (do you know what cash is currently at?) will last 18 months. Thanks. He didn't say that. He said "current cash position plus authorized shares balance", the latter presumably referring to the money that dilution would bring in. Based on numbers that have been reported in various places including threads on this forum, I think that would be doable.
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 5, 2017 22:34:20 GMT -5
While I would like to agree with you, the story is about selling Afrezza and that's all it's about right now. I would love to believe that EPI will help save us but that's a hail Mary in my book. We need to get Afrezza/Technosphere accepted in the marketplace............now! This thread is about the Fair value for the stock. That is the story I am referring to. There is a disconnect between the value of IP and the stock. As if the IP does not matter... MNKD has about 18 months of runway with the current cash position plus authorized shares balance, if needed. A lot of things are in play in 2017 and 2018 that will position the IP even better. Scripts cannot gain traction without advertising. BP would spend at least 100M a year on TV commercials. If that happened for the last 2 years, sales revenue would most likely already exceed the advertising spend. Take the current scripts out of the story but market is pretending that that is all the story is about. Not true. I cannot predict the future but the IP value is what this story is about. The value of IP is difficult to assess but you can some what value it by the revenue stream it protects. In the case of Afrezza associated patents they would be based of that revenue. In the case of other patents they would be valued at the royalty levels they generate. Technosphere associated patents for example would accrue value from Afrezza sales and from royalty deals like RLS. From that revenue stream you can calculate the NPV. This isn't a great way to value IP but for a quick and dirty approach it's not bad. The upshot is that as things stand today the IP is not particularly valuable. If it was valuable Mannkind would have a lot of royalty deals, and they don't.
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Post by buyitonsale on Mar 6, 2017 1:56:29 GMT -5
Sanofi was willing to pay about 1 Billon for 65% of Afrezza only. At least their previous smarter CEO wanted to. The new CEO surely scored big with Toujeo MNKD is building up the IP value by improving the label and getting a pediatric approval. We will see who wants it then.
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Post by kbrion77 on Mar 6, 2017 7:56:19 GMT -5
Obnoxious and pumping post. Please breakdown how current cash (do you know what cash is currently at?) will last 18 months. Thanks. He didn't say that. He said "current cash position plus authorized shares balance", the latter presumably referring to the money that dilution would bring in. Based on numbers that have been reported in various places including threads on this forum, I think that would be doable. We will know in less than 3 months if Afrezza and MNKD is here to stay. There is absolutely no reason to phrase it the way he did stating MNKD has 18 months of cash.
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 6, 2017 10:27:36 GMT -5
Sanofi was willing to pay about 1 Billon for 65% of Afrezza only. At least their previous smarter CEO wanted to. The new CEO surely scored big with Toujeo MNKD is building up the IP value by improving the label and getting a pediatric approval. We will see who wants it then. Sanofi were willing to pay $ 1 billion if and only if Mannkind hit all their milestones including the stretch goals. They actually paid $150 million for the IP so that was where they set the value. Today it would not fetch anywhere near that. Improving the label and performing trials only increases the value of IP if it increases sales. For Afrezza that would mean at least breaking even.
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Post by buyitonsale on Mar 7, 2017 0:05:42 GMT -5
He didn't say that. He said "current cash position plus authorized shares balance", the latter presumably referring to the money that dilution would bring in. Based on numbers that have been reported in various places including threads on this forum, I think that would be doable. We will know in less than 3 months if Afrezza and MNKD is here to stay. There is absolutely no reason to phrase it the way he did stating MNKD has 18 months of cash. Sure, in 3 months they will just ignore any opportunity they will have to raise money, lay down and die. There is absolutely no reason to think differently.
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Post by realitycheck2017 on Mar 7, 2017 2:27:33 GMT -5
The only value that matters is $1.89...today's closing price.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2017 6:21:51 GMT -5
buyitonsale 200k shares pre split or post split? Time to change the signature. And hoping we stay here and dont have to reverse split any more.
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Post by lakon on Mar 7, 2017 11:25:18 GMT -5
Sanofi was willing to pay about 1 Billon for 65% of Afrezza only. At least their previous smarter CEO wanted to. The new CEO surely scored big with Toujeo MNKD is building up the IP value by improving the label and getting a pediatric approval. We will see who wants it then. Sanofi were willing to pay $ 1 billion if and only if Mannkind hit all their milestones including the stretch goals. They actually paid $150 million for the IP so that was where they set the value. Today it would not fetch anywhere near that. Improving the label and performing trials only increases the value of IP if it increases sales. For Afrezza that would mean at least breaking even. Don't forget to include SNY's exit strategy. The 65% value set by SNY includes the upfront payment + payed out milestones + 65% losses + product costs + exit costs that they paid before giving up completely and walking away. Who wants it now? The cost to success is clearly more than BP wants to spend. (It was closer to $500 million spent so over that amount for 100% valuation or the remaining milestone payments. That's what they valued it at within their willingness to spend on commercialization and 1 year's time. Then, cut and run.)
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Post by buyitonsale on Mar 7, 2017 11:56:49 GMT -5
The deal with Sanofi was done by Al in good faith that the marketing will be done correctly. If the old CEO stayed on it would be a different story now. And the valuation would have been 925M for 65% with no effort on MNKD part to market so they could focus on the pipeline. IMO it was a decent deal for MNKD because Al wanted to bring it to global market ASAP and Sanofi looked the part. The mistake was not to raise insurance capital at that time or in 2015.
Afrezza still commands the same valuation and more based on the label changes coming up.
MNKD is not giving it away because it knows the value. I firmly believe that they are talking to companies that can help bring it to global markets by next year, if not sooner.
That is what I believe Afrezza needs now - script volume at lower margins. The fact that they are filing in other regions says that they changed their strategy (to first make it a success in US market).
There is still a big disconnect between IP and how that IP has been marketed to date.
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Post by goyocafe on Mar 7, 2017 12:01:50 GMT -5
The deal with Sanofi was done by Al in good faith that the marketing will be done correctly. If the old CEO stayed on it would be a different story now. And the valuation would have been 925M for 65% with no effort on MNKD part to market so they could focus on the pipeline. IMO it was a decent deal for MNKD because Al wanted to bring it to global market ASAP and Sanofi looked the part. The mistake was not to raise insurance capital at that time or in 2015. Afrezza still commands the same valuation and more based on the label changes coming up. MNKD is not giving it away because it knows the value. I firmly believe that they are talking to companies that can help bring it to global markets by next year, if not sooner. That is what I believe Afrezza needs now - script volume at lower margins. The fact that they are filing in other regions says that they changed their strategy (to first make it a success in US market). There is still a big disconnect between IP and how that IP has been marketed to date. And the FDA takes 10 months to review a label change request. Where would the price be right now if that label change were already approved? What would the strategy be then? Rhetorical questions.
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