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Post by agedhippie on Mar 6, 2017 19:49:04 GMT -5
I think there is still some value. Insulin has fairly plateaued at this point, and Afrezza is about as close as you can get to endogenous insulin. I can see a big pharma buying it up at the prices its at and then letting it sit on a shelf somewhere while they test it out. I kind of think we're only a study or two away from market acceptance. But they need to be the right studies. One study needs to show that Afrezza is superior to every other insulin on the market. The next needs to prove long-term safety. For less than a billion dollars, to be able to pull that off is still quite a bargain. Hindsight is 20/20, but that's part of what separates good management from bad management. I don't think anyone at Mannkind ever fully understood the pharmaceutical landscape, including Al. These studies should have been one of the first boxes to get checked before marketing the drug. Their lack of foresight is what is leading to their demise. Is the announced time in range study not a viable superiority study? A1c is still the holy grail though time in range should be. You could make A1c a secondary endpoint in teh trial and get to it that way. The key thing though would be to have sufficient numbers and multiple arms. You could not do it with just Afrezza users which I suspect is what they are planning on doing.
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Post by sayhey24 on Mar 6, 2017 19:54:55 GMT -5
aged belongs to the largest endo group in NY city. He told us, the big news from his endo, is that group has one person they are going to prescribe Afrezza to. That is the facts. I'll stop. I am sure you know what I am thinking. FWIW I was told by a young ENDO DR from Mt Sinai in Manhattan they would not prescribe because of unknown lung issue. Aged A1c has been 7+ lately. Knowing what I know about afrezza, if my A1c was 7+ and I was incurring microvascular damage I would call a doctor on the MNKD list. Fact is many PCPs would probably prescribe if someone with Aged knowledge explained the benefits to them. I have not met many PCPs who have ever heard of afrezza let alone know what it is. I think brotherm1 has a point. Here we have the greatest advance in diabetes care in 95 years. Mannkind figured out how to stabilize the human insulin molecule and deliver it directly into the blood stream just like the pancreas. Funny thing is people are surprised the insulin works exactly like pancreatic insulin. Even the liver doesn't know the difference between the pancreas and afrezza. It only took 95 years and Aged said "At this point you would have to be crazy to buy the company since the drug is not selling". That factory took $200M and years to build let alone afrezza development. Short of beta-cell replacement, afrezza is the holy grail in diabetes care. Now, does anyone really think Sanofi tried to sell afrezza. We know they spent 2015 in a "controlled" roll-out. And we know the guy heading up the effort put a plan together, got a partnership deal with Google and got Sanofi to pony-up $250M. Who, in their right mind would give a guy $250M and put him in charge of the joint venture after he failed so badly with afrezza. At a minimum, he should have gotten Exubera's sales, if he was trying to sell it. They never even put the insurance coverage together and you give this guy $250M? Clearly Sanofi never tried to sell afrezza and whatever Schwarz's plan is must be a dandy. Concerning the lung FUD, I mentioned this in my Open Letter to the Sales team. The lead chemist on the Exubera development said Pfizer and the rest of BP thought the Exubera cancer FUD would end afrezza development. He also said ZERO chance of cancer. The sales team needs to take this head on. If human insulin causes cancer we are all in trouble and FDKP is not a carcinogen, doesn't get stuck in the cilia and gets excreted un-metabolized from the body. If anything afrezza long-term will make the PWDs healthier and they will have better lung function. The 2 year lung function tests are now coming in and ZERO issues. At least one I saw reported better results than baseline. There should also be 5 year results from the compassionate use Exubera users who started on afrezza before approval.
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Post by surplusvalue on Mar 6, 2017 22:25:49 GMT -5
Targeted stock to .25 or .15 which was announced a long time ago. Managements ineptitude has helped the process along. 1 for 5 to deal with the listing only but anyone with any sense knows a RS needs additional supports to weather the inevitable downward pressure on the stock. Still waiting to see if management has something to support the RS. They are taking their sweet time assuming they have anything at all. My sense is that these people dont seem prepared ahead of time; even left the listing issue and have fallen outside the timeline for even this. The SP is likely to continue to be battered and what an easy target. I have said this before but the CEO doesnt lead but follows events and the management style amounts to a last minute Larry (apologies to those named Larry) with no transparency. Lets keep shareholders in the dark and the market too while we are at it. Like I said very very early on everyone can see that a RS is an act of desperation and the kiss of death for existing shareholders.
The strategy for commercialization has been to follow the path of most resistance. Educate one of the most conservative factions in the profession who are not going to upset the routine of their patients or their practice even if they are educated and can see the results (sorry Peppy). Remember Matt saying they learned a lot from the Sanofi failure and said that MNKD could do better. Apparently they didnt learn much since they are doing the same thing Sanofi did targeting the doctors and with much the same results; no sales. What a surprise. Yes label change, pediatric studies etc but MNKD cant afford the time constraints since they bungled their financial situation. MNKD launch 2.0 was not successful so now onto 3.0 and the same strategy continues.
Even the dumbest kid who wants to sell lemonade at the side of the road has enough sense to put up a sign and advertise. No advertisement no demand and no sales. It's not rocket science. So you are going to tell me that it would have been too early and MNKD wouldnt have been ready. Looks like they are still not ready so it doesnt matter. Maybe the pressure from more demand might have made management get their arse in gear and think in terms of foresight instead of reaction. And it would have put pressure on the endos as well.High demand from the public now looks like it would be a positive problem doesnt it? And are you going to tell me that they couldnt afford advertising alongside the education process? So they are burning 10 million a month on education ? Please.
Their present strategy isnt working and they should have realized it early on in 2.0. They're trying to dismantle a brick wall by chipping away at each brick. They cant afford that anymore. Whats astonishing is that management is doing it again. If they manage to keep the listing everyone will applaud. The bar for expectations has been set so low managemnent can simply step over it and claim victory without accomplishing very much of anything. Wake up Dorothy, you're not in Kansas anymore. The nightmare is just beginning.
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Post by slugworth008 on Mar 6, 2017 22:32:19 GMT -5
Targeted stock to .25 or .15 which was announced a long time ago. Managements ineptitude has helped the process along. 1 for 5 to deal with the listing only but anyone with any sense knows a RS needs additional supports to weather the inevitable downward pressure on the stock. Still waiting to see if management has something to support the RS. They are taking their sweet time assuming they have anything at all. My sense is that these people dont seem prepared ahead of time; even left the listing issue and have fallen outside the timeline for even this. The SP is likely to continue to be battered and what an easy target. I have said this before but the CEO doesnt lead but follows events and the management style amounts to a last minute Larry (apologies to those named Larry) with no transparency. Lets keep shareholders in the dark and the market too while we are at it. Like I said very very early on everyone can see that a RS is an act of desperation and the kiss of death for existing shareholders. The strategy for commercialization has been to follow the path of most resistance. Educate one of the most conservative factions in the profession who are not going to upset the routine of their patients or their practice even if they are educated and can see the results (sorry Peppy). Remember Matt saying they learned a lot from the Sanofi failure and said that MNKD could do better. Apparently they didnt learn much since they are doing the same thing Sanofi did targeting the doctors and with much the same results; no sales. What a surprise. Yes label change, pediatric studies etc but MNKD cant afford the time constraints since they bungled their financial situation. MNKD launch 2.0 was not successful so now onto 3.0 and the same strategy continues. Even the dumbest kid who wants to sell lemonade at the side of the road has enough sense to put up a sign and advertise. No advertisement no demand and no sales. It's not rocket science. So you are going to tell me that it would have been too early and MNKD wouldnt have been ready. Looks like they are still not ready so it doesnt matter. Maybe the pressure from more demand might have made management get their arse in gear and think in terms of foresight instead of reaction. And it would have put pressured on the endos as well.High demand from the public now looks like it would be a positive problem doesnt it? And are you going to tell me that they couldnt afford advertising alongside the education process? So they are burning 10 million a month on education ? Please. Their present strategy isnt working and they should have realized it early on in 2.0. They're trying to dismantle a brick wall by chipping away at each brick. They cant afford that anymore. Whats astonishing is is that management is doing it again. If they manage to keep the listing everyone will applaud. The bar for expectations has been set so low managemnent can simply step over it and claim victory without accomplishing very much of anything. Wake up Dorothy, you're not in Kansas anymore. The nightmare is just beginning. Well I hadn't planned on drinking tonight - So much for that....
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Post by madog365 on Mar 6, 2017 22:35:09 GMT -5
^It's said because these poor reps were sent into the lion's den with no marketing support and are expected to change the course of the ship. It's the patients that are unaware of Afrezza, The endo's know about it (probably misinformation but they've heard of it) and are not prescribing it. IF patients start to demand it some will have to change their approach or risk losing these patients.
There is no sales without marketing, and no marketing without sales.
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 6, 2017 22:42:24 GMT -5
Even the dumbest kid who wants to sell lemonade at the side of the road has enough sense to put up a sign and advertise. No advertisement no demand no sales.
Well said ...slug what are we drinking!
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Post by slugworth008 on Mar 6, 2017 22:56:37 GMT -5
Even the dumbest kid who wants to sell lemonade at the side of the road has enough sense to put up a sign and advertise. No advertisement no demand no sales. Well said ...slug what are we drinking! I'm thinking Vodka tonics or perhaps Vodka cran - How's that sound to you?
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Post by slugworth008 on Mar 6, 2017 23:00:12 GMT -5
Targeted stock to .25 or .15 which was announced a long time ago. Managements ineptitude has helped the process along. 1 for 5 to deal with the listing only but anyone with any sense knows a RS needs additional supports to weather the inevitable downward pressure on the stock. Still waiting to see if management has something to support the RS. They are taking their sweet time assuming they have anything at all. My sense is that these people dont seem prepared ahead of time; even left the listing issue and have fallen outside the timeline for even this. The SP is likely to continue to be battered and what an easy target. I have said this before but the CEO doesnt lead but follows events and the management style amounts to a last minute Larry (apologies to those named Larry) with no transparency. Lets keep shareholders in the dark and the market too while we are at it. Like I said very very early on everyone can see that a RS is an act of desperation and the kiss of death for existing shareholders. The strategy for commercialization has been to follow the path of most resistance. Educate one of the most conservative factions in the profession who are not going to upset the routine of their patients or their practice even if they are educated and can see the results (sorry Peppy). Remember Matt saying they learned a lot from the Sanofi failure and said that MNKD could do better. Apparently they didnt learn much since they are doing the same thing Sanofi did targeting the doctors and with much the same results; no sales. What a surprise. Yes label change, pediatric studies etc but MNKD cant afford the time constraints since they bungled their financial situation. MNKD launch 2.0 was not successful so now onto 3.0 and the same strategy continues. Even the dumbest kid who wants to sell lemonade at the side of the road has enough sense to put up a sign and advertise. No advertisement no demand and no sales. It's not rocket science. So you are going to tell me that it would have been too early and MNKD wouldnt have been ready. Looks like they are still not ready so it doesnt matter. Maybe the pressure from more demand might have made management get their arse in gear and think in terms of foresight instead of reaction. And it would have put pressure on the endos as well.High demand from the public now looks like it would be a positive problem doesnt it? And are you going to tell me that they couldnt afford advertising alongside the education process? So they are burning 10 million a month on education ? Please. Their present strategy isnt working and they should have realized it early on in 2.0. They're trying to dismantle a brick wall by chipping away at each brick. They cant afford that anymore. Whats astonishing is that management is doing it again. If they manage to keep the listing everyone will applaud. The bar for expectations has been set so low managemnent can simply step over it and claim victory without accomplishing very much of anything. Wake up Dorothy, you're not in Kansas anymore. The nightmare is just beginning. Totally agree with you on the marketing line - and pretty much the rest of the post as well.
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Post by realitycheck2017 on Mar 7, 2017 2:29:29 GMT -5
I doubt it...
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Post by realitycheck2017 on Mar 7, 2017 2:32:02 GMT -5
Its not a failure. It did what it was supposed to do and prevent them from being delisted. If it was a 1:10 the stock would be down 24% vs 12% This is what happens with a RS. And you're right it hasn't failed yet. I don't think it will go below 1.30 IMHO it will be under a dollar by the end of the month.
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Post by realitycheck2017 on Mar 7, 2017 2:41:39 GMT -5
FWIW the market is taking a huge $hit today. Speculative stocks getting hit the hardest. MNKD has never followed the market before, what makes you think it's going to follow it now?
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Post by kball on Mar 7, 2017 8:32:29 GMT -5
Even the dumbest kid who wants to sell lemonade at the side of the road has enough sense to put up a sign and advertise. No advertisement no demand no sales. Well said ...slug what are we drinking!kball's suggestion... Anything. And everything.
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Post by lb on Mar 7, 2017 8:41:31 GMT -5
1:100 split would've done.
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Post by cjm18 on Mar 7, 2017 8:50:14 GMT -5
FWIW the market is taking a huge $hit today. Speculative stocks getting hit the hardest. MNKD has never followed the market before, what makes you think it's going to follow it now? Actually Mnkd has a 3.22 beta says google. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance)
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Post by scoy on Mar 7, 2017 9:14:22 GMT -5
Actually that indicates that Mannkind is 3.22 times as volatile as the market. Mannkind's r-squared is 3.17 which means that 3% of its moves can be explained by moves in the market. www.hedgeable.com/quote/MNKDSPY, an ETF, has an r-squared of 96.26%. www.hedgeable.com/quote/SPYIn other words Mannkind doesn't follow the market.
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