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Post by harshal1981 on Apr 17, 2014 10:43:03 GMT -5
So finally, I got hold of historical share price vs. shares outstanding for last 10 years. The shares that I bought in July 11 should have been worth $18 instead of $6.39 if there was no dilution, and the ones from Jul-12 should have been $12 instead of $6.39 and the lots from July-13 should have been $8.5 had there been no dilution since then.
Based on current pace of cash burn and upcoming dilutions (Deerfield, ATM, Al's $30 mil in to shares and employee options upon approval), we may very well hit 450 million outstanding. That is whopping 3.5 times the Jul-11 shares outstanding!. In other words, people who bought at $4 during the dip right before the AdCom had cheaper shares than my $2 shares from Oct-2012. AMAZING!!!
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Post by jpg on Apr 17, 2014 11:09:51 GMT -5
So you are saying the shares I bought at below 2$ were more expensive then the shares bought at 4$ the day before the Adcom???
Does that make a lot of sense in a practical sense? The buyers who bought the day before the adcom bought the same share we bought but payed twice as much. Paying twice as much is cheaper???
JPG
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Post by spiro on Apr 17, 2014 11:23:10 GMT -5
Harshal, Are you saying your 100 shares cost you more at $2. than someone buying 100 shares today at $6.30. I am very pleased to have bought a lot of shares below $2. They would have cost me over 3 times more today. Dilution is the name of the game with biotech's and as long as the price keeps going up, it's not that painful. one thing is certain, without dilution, there would be no MNKD stock to talk about.
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Post by spiro on Apr 17, 2014 11:33:46 GMT -5
OK, now I understand, Harshal could be trying to get a job on Adam Feuerstein's staff.
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 17, 2014 12:31:39 GMT -5
Listen to Spiro, he's an amazing fellow! I had a nice, long conversation with him yesterday, and we are clearly the ying and yang, the alpha and omega, of the MNKD bulls; Spiro, the most optimistic bull, Baba, the most pessimistic bull. Every time we have these conversations (other than on those fairly rare days when the stock is getting pummeled, and he becomes vulnerable and I know I must strike!), his optimistic bull arguments just kill my pessimistic bull arguments! Spiro could have been the toast of Madison Avenue, he's just a sharp guy, who retains and is able to spew many facts, spontaneously, and convince just about anyone as to who valuable the whole MNKD technology regime really is. My main retort, "well, why hasn't it happened yet?" Weak, but where the heck is the partnership!?
For you very optimistic bulls, Spiro's the guy you want at the microphone, not Al and not Matt!! I hope for all of our sakes, that Spiro's vision becomes reality, it definitely could, but I can't buy it quite yet!!
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Post by spiro on Apr 17, 2014 13:20:14 GMT -5
So what are you saying Baba, that I am the big Bull with the smile on my face and you are a baby bull with the frown? I do not buy your pessimistic bull argument. That is total B.S. it is much more likely that you enjoy the thrill of the investment and buy high risk stocks like ONCY, IMUC, POETF and MNKD. Actually MNKD is no longer high risk because of the surprising AdCom vote. I think that you should sell all your MNKD shares and get into another stock that supports your pessimistic optimism better.. BTW, you did a very good job convincing me to buy POETF yesterday. Oh well, in less than 3 months, we will find out if we will be castrated.
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Post by liane on Apr 17, 2014 15:02:48 GMT -5
This thread was drifting way off topic; alcc - I moved your post to the POET Technologies thread.
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Post by harshal1981 on Apr 17, 2014 19:48:50 GMT -5
Shares now costing less than shares bought at $2 was the statement not to be taken literally!
Spiro - common, you are putting me in the group of AF and kinds?
The only point I wanted to make is that had the dilution not taken place the valuation of our shares would have been 3x compared to what it is right now. and Thats all... I am just being more greedy now ...
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Post by rak5555 on Apr 18, 2014 8:26:52 GMT -5
Harshal - there was a post similar to yours on opc's board about a month ago. I found it very helpful then and still do today. Today, MNKD has a market cap of $2.3 billion. In July 2011 the market cap was as low as $.5 billion. So today the market thinks MNKD is worth 4 times as much as in 2011. What has transpired over the past 3 years that justifies MNKD being valued 4 times higher? Could it be that the market accurately assessed that Afrezza wasn't ready for approval or market acceptance in 2011?
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Post by harshal1981 on Apr 18, 2014 11:31:16 GMT -5
No, in pharma stocks, when market know already that after 2nd CRL, two phase III trials are going to take another two years, people are going to pull their money back and return when the catalysts are on the radar. So low market cap durin late 2011 when MNKD was just starting trials was not reflective of the value of afrezza, it was reflective of "time" before it can be assigned proper value. Now the reward for investing during that down time is that you get cheap shares.. but eventually they will be diluted so your "cost" is really going up as such. When you park your money and wait for two years for investors who are savy, it is lost opportunity cost that also factors in. For example, what if you would have used same money in another pharma company that had near term catalyst and increased the portfolio value by 40% and then came to MNKD and invested at $4 instead of $2. Understood you are getting half the shares in the amount you had previously, but now you have 40% more to invest. Also, the difference is $2 but when you sell at $20, that difference is not really a major difference. Its all math, scenario analysis and permutation combination. They call it investment capital flow chart.
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