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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 28, 2017 14:20:50 GMT -5
I'd put in the following suggested edits: Plan A - scripts build over next couple of months allowing secondary offering though with fairly painful level of dilution Plan B - bankruptcy with the possible, but not likely Plan C - a white swan deal with upfront cash Thanks for the suggestion but bankruptcy is not a plan, it is the result if plans A and B fail. Is scripts show growth, the dilution will not be painful in the long run - opportunistic investors will be rushing back to MNKD at these levels. I don't see how dilution could be anything but painful. How much money needs to be raised? What is the market cap now? If we were to say increase shares by 50% in order to raise funds, assuming Afrezza is successful that still knocks the share price down by 33% vs where it would have been. To me that is painful. Certainly would make it considerably less likely I ever am in black again. Raising money through equity offering at beaten down share price is basically locking in losses for all existing shareholders. The only painting of dilution this year as positive would be... less painful than bankruptcy.
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Post by orlon on Mar 28, 2017 14:28:47 GMT -5
The only way I can put this is: The Board of Directors, the Chief Executive Officer, the Chief Science Officer etc etc etc...should hang their collective heads in shame for tarnishing the legacy of Al Mann. Al made significant in roads in science and the medical device fields as well as a a novel therapy for the treatment of diabetes. His achievements will be glossed over and people will remember him as the CEO Of Mannkind, a failed drug company. This collective group showed their incompetence more than once, the BOD showing up to collect the fees and approving a stock split, and the CEO attempting to smooze stockholders from quarter to quarter with the same old rhetoric, and Chief Commercial Officer running around the country but showing few results. All I can do now is wait until they declare bankruptcy and take a $3000.00 capital gain loss for the the next ten years.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 28, 2017 14:34:17 GMT -5
I knew after seeing the poor script numbers Friday after Matt said a few weeks ago Scripts would improve in a couple weeks that we would get hit hard this week. I'm totally disappointed! Are only chance is if scripts improve to near 10 percent or more this Friday that's not much just 20-30 more total scripts will show a good sign. But I am in the camp that there is a stock price bottom because MannKind has to be worth a great deal with all that they have lets face it Afrezza works and works very well. This stock price is very sad and I am really hateful with all the corruption going on for pure greed with no concern for the diabetics that need good medicine. It makes me feel no pun intended Man kind is doomed....I pray for all us longs that have suffered for the good of humanity that mannkind prevails. Now back to drinking.. Care to speculate where this stock price bottom exists? I'm assuming you mean something above $0? I really can't see where there is any logical support level. We're setting new all time split adjusted lows, so doesn't seem as if there is any technical analysis that says this doesn't continue plowing lower in levels of the subbasement. Shorts aren't having to pay the nose bleed interest rates they have previously, so doesn't seem as if we're under extreme near term shorting pressure. Obviously buying shares of a public company "for the good of humanity" was a little ill conceived.
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 28, 2017 14:34:33 GMT -5
I knew after seeing the poor script numbers Friday after Matt said a few weeks ago Scripts would improve in a couple weeks that we would get hit hard this week. I'm totally disappointed! Are only chance is if scripts improve to near 10 percent or more this Friday that's not much just 20-30 more total scripts will show a good sign. But I am in the camp that there is a stock price bottom because MannKind has to be worth a great deal with all that they have lets face it Afrezza works and works very well. This stock price is very sad and I am really hateful with all the corruption going on for pure greed with no concern for the diabetics that need good medicine. It makes me feel no pun intended Man kind is doomed....I pray for all us longs that have suffered for the good of humanity that mannkind prevails. Now back to drinking.. Why in the world would Matt say that? After evaluating the situation Nate said 4-12 weeks. Agree hard assets are worth almost as much as we are now. RS do this...I know the sales team are working their butts off. Some one needs to step up. Buy shares, defend the company. That's what is done when your share price gets driven into the dirt.
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Post by mnkdnewb on Mar 28, 2017 14:45:19 GMT -5
I knew after seeing the poor script numbers Friday after Matt said a few weeks ago Scripts would improve in a couple weeks that we would get hit hard this week. I'm totally disappointed! Are only chance is if scripts improve to near 10 percent or more this Friday that's not much just 20-30 more total scripts will show a good sign. But I am in the camp that there is a stock price bottom because MannKind has to be worth a great deal with all that they have lets face it Afrezza works and works very well. This stock price is very sad and I am really hateful with all the corruption going on for pure greed with no concern for the diabetics that need good medicine. It makes me feel no pun intended Man kind is doomed....I pray for all us longs that have suffered for the good of humanity that mannkind prevails. Now back to drinking.. LOL, our only chance is if scripts "jump" by 10% this week!!?? Hahaha our only hope is if scripts literally double (which at a couple hundred scripts should be very attainable) for the next 4-6 weeks. Anything less is a total failure. since afrezza started selling, we've averaged about 1 new script per week. That doesn't paint a very promising picture. Seriously, unless you want to give the rest of your money away you should think about selling. Every single one of your "predictions" have been wrong. You need to stop posting like I asked before the reverse split...
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 28, 2017 15:00:49 GMT -5
I knew after seeing the poor script numbers Friday after Matt said a few weeks ago Scripts would improve in a couple weeks that we would get hit hard this week. I'm totally disappointed! Are only chance is if scripts improve to near 10 percent or more this Friday that's not much just 20-30 more total scripts will show a good sign. But I am in the camp that there is a stock price bottom because MannKind has to be worth a great deal with all that they have lets face it Afrezza works and works very well. This stock price is very sad and I am really hateful with all the corruption going on for pure greed with no concern for the diabetics that need good medicine. It makes me feel no pun intended Man kind is doomed....I pray for all us longs that have suffered for the good of humanity that mannkind prevails. Now back to drinking.. Why in the world would Matt say that? After evaluating the situation Nate said 4-12 weeks. Agree hard assets are worth almost as much as we are now. RS do this...I know the sales team are working their butts off. Some one needs to step up. Buy shares, defend the company. That's what is done when your share price gets driven into the dirt. We have liabilities that match or exceed hard assets.
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Post by chuck on Mar 28, 2017 15:08:24 GMT -5
Thanks for the suggestion but bankruptcy is not a plan, it is the result if plans A and B fail. Is scripts show growth, the dilution will not be painful in the long run - opportunistic investors will be rushing back to MNKD at these levels. Bankruptcy very often is the plan of reorganization whereby a firm re-capitalizes while continuing as a going concern. Just not my preferred plan going forward. Think GM. Companies with a failed business model don't re-capitalize and continue as a going concern. They go out of business forever. Mnkd, as its currently structured is not a viable company and its unlikely that any restructured form of mnkd would be viable. Companies with a viable business, buried under a mountain of debt and other commitments (like pension - hello GM) will recapitalize following existing debt holders taking a haircut on their interests.
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Post by silentknight on Mar 28, 2017 15:13:56 GMT -5
Why in the world would Matt say that? After evaluating the situation Nate said 4-12 weeks. Agree hard assets are worth almost as much as we are now. RS do this...I know the sales team are working their butts off. Some one needs to step up. Buy shares, defend the company. That's what is done when your share price gets driven into the dirt. We have liabilities that match or exceed hard assets. Exactly. Net value of the company? Zero. Debt will actually exceed assets, as you point out, but obviously the company won't be able to pay them if things ever make it before a court. Not to mention the "shareholder value" which now sits in the negative for hundreds of millions of dollars. If things so south (baring a miraculous turn around in sales), my guess is that Afrezza gets awarded to Deerfield as part of their claim on TS and it's sold to another pharma for a few million dollars, lock stock and barrel. Afrezza might fetch value, but TS is dead money. Nobody will pay much for a technology that has demonstrated itself to be worthless in the commercial world. Afrezza is the only TS approved product and nobody wants it and whatever RLS is working on is also clearly a non-event or we'd know more about it. That tells you all you need to know about the value of TS.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Mar 28, 2017 15:16:23 GMT -5
My take is that it boiled down to a trial that did not show superiority. MNKD accepted the terms that were not fair to the profile and that was the kiss of death. Also should have instantly done a new study but I guess that the delay had cut too deep into his pocket. Many investors believed that this is not so important right now (including me).
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Post by kbrion77 on Mar 28, 2017 15:19:52 GMT -5
We have liabilities that match or exceed hard assets. Exactly. Net value of the company? Zero. Debt will actually exceed assets, as you point out, but obviously the company won't be able to pay them if things ever make it before a court. Not to mention the "shareholder value" which now sits in the negative for hundreds of millions of dollars. If things so south (baring a miraculous turn around in sales), my guess is that Afrezza gets awarded to Deerfield as part of their claim on TS and it's sold to another pharma for a few million dollars, lock stock and barrel. Afrezza might fetch value, but TS is dead money. Nobody will pay much for a technology that has demonstrated itself to be worthless in the commercial world. Afrezza is the only TS approved product and nobody wants it and whatever RLS is working on is also clearly a non-event or we'd know more about it. That tells you all you need to know about the value of TS. Would have been an expensive lesson that is for sure. Maybe the drug is too far ahead of it's time. Knowing our luck Sanofi buys it for $20MM and turns it into a $300MM a year drug while Matt, Mike, Ray move onto their next gig and us past shareholders sit and wonder.
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Post by silentknight on Mar 28, 2017 15:21:13 GMT -5
My take is that it boiled down to a trial that did not show superiority. MNKD accepted the terms that were not fair to the profile and that was the kiss of death. Also should have instantly done a new study but I guess that the delay had cut too deep into his pocket. Many investors believed that this is not so important right now (including me). I'd wager you're right. I'd also wager that the acceptance of a flawed trial design is one of many mistakes that the BoD and management have made over the years. Throw in the SNY deal, Desisto blunder, pricing mistakes, contract sales force into direct hire debacle, etc.... and you see a trend. They collectively can't make a good decision, but they've all collected millions in salary and stock options while the company swirls the drain. If any of them had an ounce of integrity, they'd resign out of shame. Fat chance of that happening when they can ride the gravy train to the end and keep getting that paycheck.
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Post by almannlives on Mar 28, 2017 15:30:44 GMT -5
I must be missing something did Matt say something today?
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Post by silentknight on Mar 28, 2017 15:43:44 GMT -5
No, he didn't. I'm just especially salty today. Lol.
The share price took at nice 10% haircut today though but what else is new?
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Post by mytakeonit on Mar 28, 2017 15:50:58 GMT -5
Maybe the price did go down ... but I was bottom fishing and couldn't buy shares in the thick of things. Sounds fishy to me.
Hope you all remember that script numbers are posted a week delayed. This weeks and next weeks numbers will be very revealing. Hopefully, it'll be a Big Hair Day !!!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 28, 2017 15:58:16 GMT -5
Maybe the price did go down ... but I was bottom fishing and couldn't buy shares in the thick of things. Sounds fishy to me. Hope you all remember that script numbers are posted a week delayed. This weeks and next weeks numbers will be very revealing. Hopefully, it'll be a Big Hair Day !!! What is fishy? Price did go down... no maybe.
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