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Post by promann on Mar 28, 2017 16:01:16 GMT -5
I knew after seeing the poor script numbers Friday after Matt said a few weeks ago Scripts would improve in a couple weeks that we would get hit hard this week. I'm totally disappointed! Are only chance is if scripts improve to near 10 percent or more this Friday that's not much just 20-30 more total scripts will show a good sign. But I am in the camp that there is a stock price bottom because MannKind has to be worth a great deal with all that they have lets face it Afrezza works and works very well. This stock price is very sad and I am really hateful with all the corruption going on for pure greed with no concern for the diabetics that need good medicine. It makes me feel no pun intended Man kind is doomed....I pray for all us longs that have suffered for the good of humanity that mannkind prevails. Now back to drinking.. Why in the world would Matt say that? After evaluating the situation Nate said 4-12 weeks. Agree hard assets are worth almost as much as we are now. RS do this...I know the sales team are working their butts off. Some one needs to step up. Buy shares, defend the company. That's what is done when your share price gets driven into the dirt. I Bet Matt and Mike are at a point of cracking the whip with their sales team? I bet the fly on the wall knows some frustration within the company. Sell the Drug!! These all time lows are speaking volumes of the companies prospects total shame.. I'm holding my shares and selling is not a option is their a surprise coming? anyones guess. Good Luck Sports |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 28, 2017 16:11:01 GMT -5
Why in the world would Matt say that? After evaluating the situation Nate said 4-12 weeks. Agree hard assets are worth almost as much as we are now. RS do this...I know the sales team are working their butts off. Some one needs to step up. Buy shares, defend the company. That's what is done when your share price gets driven into the dirt. I Bet Matt and Mike are at a point of cracking the whip with their sales team? I bet the fly on the wall knows some frustration within the company. Sell the Drug!! These all time lows are speaking volumes of the companies prospects total shame.. I'm holding my shares and selling is not a option is their a surprise coming? anyones guess. Good Luck Sports It's more business development than sales. Lack of sales rep support to doctors may be a problem in preventing them from prescribing, such as if they don't have samples, but whipping them or not, they have little real ability to generate scripts on command. Even if they know the doctor, we can hope doctors don't actually prescribe a drug to a patient because a friendly rep is saying "please buddy, I just need 2 scripts from you this week to meet my quota". |
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Post by oldfishtowner on Mar 28, 2017 16:24:20 GMT -5
Thanks for the suggestion but bankruptcy is not a plan, it is the result if plans A and B fail. Is scripts show growth, the dilution will not be painful in the long run - opportunistic investors will be rushing back to MNKD at these levels. I don't see how dilution could be anything but painful. How much money needs to be raised? What is the market cap now? If we were to say increase shares by 50% in order to raise funds, assuming Afrezza is successful that still knocks the share price down by 33% vs where it would have been. To me that is painful. Certainly would make it considerably less likely I ever am in black again. Raising money through equity offering at beaten down share price is basically locking in losses for all existing shareholders. The only painting of dilution this year as positive would be... less painful than bankruptcy. Only management knows how many prescriptions are in the queue at MannKind Cares and how well the process of getting the PAs approved is going. And that is what will make or break this stock. The 200 hundred or so in the first 4 weeks did not sound like a bad number, but if the sales team is not doing as well or better in the succeeding weeks or the PAs are not getting approved, then MNKD has to do a financing sooner rather than later or risk the stock price being much much lower when it gets down to the wire. On the other hand, no financing might be a sign that Mike and Matt see things going, maybe not as well a they had hoped, but well enough to wait for a higher PPS. |
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 28, 2017 16:43:37 GMT -5
My take is that it boiled down to a trial that did not show superiority. MNKD accepted the terms that were not fair to the profile and that was the kiss of death. Also should have instantly done a new study but I guess that the delay had cut too deep into his pocket. Many investors believed that this is not so important right now (including me). In fairness - although the board and executive are wildly incompetent the phase 3 trial for any drug is almost always to prove non-inferiority. That's followed by more trials where you prove what it can really do. Mannkind never followed up on their phase 3 trial back in 2013 - they just took the view that Sanofi could sell it regardless and left it at that. |
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Post by jonny80s on Mar 28, 2017 16:49:27 GMT -5
The only way I can put this is: The Board of Directors, the Chief Executive Officer, the Chief Science Officer etc etc etc...should hang their collective heads in shame for tarnishing the legacy of Al Mann. Al made significant in roads in science and the medical device fields as well as a a novel therapy for the treatment of diabetes. His achievements will be glossed over and people will remember him as the CEO Of Mannkind, a failed drug company. This collective group showed their incompetence more than once, the BOD showing up to collect the fees and approving a stock split, and the CEO attempting to smooze stockholders from quarter to quarter with the same old rhetoric, and Chief Commercial Officer running around the country but showing few results. All I can do now is wait until they declare bankruptcy and take a $3000.00 capital gain loss for the the next ten years. This boat is getting full... I'm on it for a couple years longer lol. |
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Post by cjm18 on Mar 28, 2017 16:51:08 GMT -5
I don't see how dilution could be anything but painful. How much money needs to be raised? What is the market cap now? If we were to say increase shares by 50% in order to raise funds, assuming Afrezza is successful that still knocks the share price down by 33% vs where it would have been. To me that is painful. Certainly would make it considerably less likely I ever am in black again. Raising money through equity offering at beaten down share price is basically locking in losses for all existing shareholders. The only painting of dilution this year as positive would be... less painful than bankruptcy. Only management knows how many prescriptions are in the queue at MannKind Cares and how well the process of getting the PAs approved is going. And that is what will make or break this stock. The 200 hundred or so in the first 4 weeks did not sound like a bad number, but if the sales team is not doing as well or better in the succeeding weeks or the PAs are not getting approved, then MNKD has to do a financing sooner rather than later or risk the stock price being much much lower when it gets down to the wire. On the other hand, no financing might be a sign that Mike and Matt see things going, maybe not as well a they had hoped, but well enough to wait for a higher PPS. How many of those 200 will become nrx is the question. Mike said 10 will. 70% were processing. And 15% were given meds while waiting for approval. 5-10% is the usual drop out. So best case is 90%. Best case. |
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Post by slugworth008 on Mar 28, 2017 16:56:54 GMT -5
I am close to my breaking point. I have lost 6 figures in this stock. I keep hanging on for the next weekly scripts in case there's a surge. In fact I added last week (feeling pretty stupid now). Nothing but a steady drip drip. Not sure what to say. So many factors at play - pricing, doctor conversion, patient retention, marketing spending etc. etc. And, I keep thinking about Hakan's entreaty on that fateful earnings call. Looks like that was the canary in the coal mine. Yet here I still holding waiting for tomorrow's scripts. Sigh. Anyone that has been around for a few years I don't know how they are not at a breaking point. There were plenty of signs for us bagholders to take serious but we refused to listen while we had our rose colored glasses on. Unfavorable deal with Sanofi (though may have been the only one), clear lack of commitment from your one and only licensing partner, TASE debacle, the "we have no plans for dilution" followed by dilution, DeSisto debacle, the "price will take care of itself not worried about delisting" followed by a reverse split. We just kept holding on hoping. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised in the next few months if Castagna jumped ship before s*&$ hits the fan if scripts don't increase. Good analysis - I think Mike sticks it out though until DTC actually begins. JMHO |
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Post by prob0840 on Mar 28, 2017 17:00:02 GMT -5
With a product that is as good as I believe Afrezza is, it is ridicules that Matt and his team has not done better with distribution. Matt may be a nice guy, however, it is getting to look like they could not sell hand warmers to Eskimos. I am sick of waiting for Afrezza perscription count to turn around. In all their meetings over the last three years they have indicated that things are going to get better. BULL
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Post by winstonsmith on Mar 28, 2017 17:12:08 GMT -5
How is it that it's down 10% on 2 million shares traded. Makes no sense other than manipulation.
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 28, 2017 17:16:13 GMT -5
On the other hand, no financing might be a sign that Mike and Matt see things going, maybe not as well a they had hoped, but well enough to wait for a higher PPS. I'm mystified they did not do some financing (dilution) around the time of the reverse split. Not necessarily a huge dilution, but something to bring in some funds as a safety cushion to buy a few more months time. Even if they had thought the PPS would shoot up in the near future, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Doing a small financing then wouldn't have precluded a larger one down the road (at least as I see it). Of course, maybe they tried and failed. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 28, 2017 17:19:39 GMT -5
How is it that it's down 10% on 2 million shares traded. Makes no sense other than manipulation. It was reported yesterday that one of the really major shorters (Karp) had covered. To my way of thinking, that means that a lot of the immediate demand for shares has now dried up. So I am not entirely surprised to see weakness today (and in the near future). |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 28, 2017 18:12:04 GMT -5
How is it that it's down 10% on 2 million shares traded. Makes no sense other than manipulation. This proboard was the bastion for rabid Mannkind fans. Are you reading the messages today? Who is buying if not this crowd? Are you buying? If you aren't, then you are part of what manipulates the stock down. This stock is going to continue down without people stepping forward to invest new money in the shares. That makes sense to me. If you did buy shares today, sorry for the false assertion, but I know that many do act like eroding share price is bizarre when they won't themselves buy at current price with current known facts. I'm not selling, but I'm certainly not buying... and wouldn't blame anyone bailing on the stock. |
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Post by wgreystone on Mar 28, 2017 18:21:51 GMT -5
I am close to my breaking point. I have lost 6 figures in this stock. I keep hanging on for the next weekly scripts in case there's a surge. In fact I added last week (feeling pretty stupid now). Nothing but a steady drip drip. Not sure what to say. So many factors at play - pricing, doctor conversion, patient retention, marketing spending etc. etc. And, I keep thinking about Hakan's entreaty on that fateful earnings call. Looks like that was the canary in the coal mine. Yet here I still holding waiting for tomorrow's scripts. Sigh. Anyone that has been around for a few years I don't know how they are not at a breaking point. There were plenty of signs for us bagholders to take serious but we refused to listen while we had our rose colored glasses on. Unfavorable deal with Sanofi (though may have been the only one), clear lack of commitment from your one and only licensing partner, TASE debacle, the "we have no plans for dilution" followed by dilution, DeSisto debacle, the "price will take care of itself not worried about delisting" followed by a reverse split. We just kept holding on hoping. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised in the next few months if Castagna jumped ship before s*&$ hits the fan if scripts don't increase. I agree. the problem started with the deal with Sanofi. $150M upfront for 65% ownership is just ridiculous, given Afrezza development cost of over $1.8B. They could raise $500M and launch the product alone if not able to find good term of partnership. The second red flag was that they kept Matt as CEO when decided to launch Afrezza alone, a personal probably without any drug launch experience. We all just believed too much that the superiority of Afrezza would overcome all the issues. |
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Post by boca1girl on Mar 28, 2017 18:32:21 GMT -5
Since nothing has changed from the last cc, I couldn't understand the recent drop from $2.25 to today's drop below $1.70. I did step up and buy more shares this morning only to see it fall even further by the close. I'm still PRAYING for a big announcement with a big cash infusion so we can put in a bottom and slowly climb out of this deep hole.
With the numerous local news stations running stories on Afrezza, at some point we have to get some traction. It can't come soon enough. Matt may be a good CFO, but it doesn't look like he is up to the task of CEO. I sure hope he proves me wrong!
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 28, 2017 19:53:02 GMT -5
Since nothing has changed from the last cc, I couldn't understand the recent drop from $2.25 to today's drop below $1.70. I did step up and buy more shares this morning only to see it fall even further by the close. I'm still PRAYING for a big announcement with a big cash infusion so we can put in a bottom and slowly climb out of this deep hole. With the numerous local news stations running stories on Afrezza, at some point we have to get some traction. It can't come soon enough. Matt may be a good CFO, but it doesn't look like he is up to the task of CEO. I sure hope he proves me wrong! RS IMO get shorted down to half their value. I think you got a good price. I'd like to hear that Matt has gotten the debt re-done and see scripts gain traction. They can raise money down the line. Anyone going to the shareholder meeting? It's only a month and 1/2 away. |
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