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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Apr 21, 2017 13:09:10 GMT -5
Question: Could MannKind go bankrupt? As hard as it is for me to say this, it is possible that MannKind could go bankrupt. They need cash to operate. I just don't see where it will be coming from for the next year.
Question: Does Afrezza work? Your damn right it does. It's a life changing treatment for diabetes. It's a shame that the short buzzards don't give a damn about people with diabetes. There is a universal justice that will one day repay one way or another those that hurt others or unfairly profit off of another.
Question: Would I still recommend Afrezza to PWD? Absolutely. To anyone that will listen.
Question: If MannKind goes bankrupt, will I blame management or the BOD? Maybe a little. But it was just not possible to foresee all of the hurdles that MannKind would face. In the end, the thing that surprises me most, is when the diabetes world actually gets a gift like Afrezza, they are so slow to recognize it, that they potentially ensure its demise.
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Post by peppy on Apr 21, 2017 13:15:06 GMT -5
Question: Could MannKind go bankrupt? As hard as it is for me to say this, it is possible that MannKind could go bankrupt. They need cash to operate. I just don't see where it will be coming from for the next year. Question: Does Afrezza work? Your damn right it does. It's a life changing treatment for diabetes. It's a shame that the short buzzards don't give a damn about people with diabetes. There is a universal justice that will one day repay one way or another those that hurt others or unfairly profit off of another. Question: Would I still recommend Afrezza to PWD? Absolutely. To anyone that will listen. Question: If MannKind goes bankrupt, will I blame management or the BOD? Maybe a little. But it was just not possible to foresee all of the hurdles that MannKind would face. In the end, the thing that surprises me most, is when the diabetes world actually gets a gift like Afrezza, they are so slow to recognize it, that they potentially ensure its demise.sweeddee's dad was yelling at the physician. Plenty have tried and been told no. Look at Aged. No one knows more about diabetes. His physician said no. (I do not think aged was jumping up and down)
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Post by slugworth008 on Apr 21, 2017 13:42:31 GMT -5
Question: Could MannKind go bankrupt? As hard as it is for me to say this, it is possible that MannKind could go bankrupt. They need cash to operate. I just don't see where it will be coming from for the next year. Question: Does Afrezza work? Your damn right it does. It's a life changing treatment for diabetes. It's a shame that the short buzzards don't give a damn about people with diabetes. There is a universal justice that will one day repay one way or another those that hurt others or unfairly profit off of another. Question: Would I still recommend Afrezza to PWD? Absolutely. To anyone that will listen. Question: If MannKind goes bankrupt, will I blame management or the BOD? Maybe a little. But it was just not possible to foresee all of the hurdles that MannKind would face. In the end, the thing that surprises me most, is when the diabetes world actually gets a gift like Afrezza, they are so slow to recognize it, that they potentially ensure its demise. You can't recognize what you don't know about. 3 years later we hear way too much of "Never heard of it". Fingers remain crossed.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2017 13:46:19 GMT -5
Central
1) Can MNKD sell Afrezza is the question, and the answer is no. Whatever the reason you want to throw in there is up to you 2) Shorts did not destroy MNKD. The company not performing destroyed themselves. People short when they feel a company is overvalued. Clearly, MNKD was overvalued. 3) Some 20-30 people on twitter does not mean its life changing. At a certain point, you need to come to terms with that. Do not make this a good vs. evil thing because that's not the case.
I thought the same thing you did. Eventually its time to own up and realize you made a bad bet but learn from it.
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Post by silentknight on Apr 21, 2017 14:07:35 GMT -5
Central 1) Can MNKD sell Afrezza is the question, and the answer is no. Whatever the reason you want to throw in there is up to you 2) Shorts did not destroy MNKD. The company not performing destroyed themselves. People short when they feel a company is overvalued. Clearly, MNKD was overvalued. 3) Some 20-30 people on twitter does not mean its life changing. At a certain point, you need to come to terms with that. Do not make this a good vs. evil thing because that's not the case. I thought the same thing you did. Eventually its time to own up and realize you made a bad bet but learn from it. There are lots here that want to deflect blame but it rests solely with us for investing in this company, and with management for failure to execute. Afrezza has faced many challenges in commercialization, granted, but a deft and experienced management team would have found and employed mechanisms to overcome those obstacles to ensure success. MNKD has proven themselves to be completely incapable of that at every turn. In the end, responsibility for the drug's failure will rest squarely at the feet of the Board of Directors, past and present executives and sadly Al Mann, for bad business decisions. The challenges were not impossible to overcome, they were just impossible to overcome by the company leadership because of ineptitude. I'm convinced that Afrezza has a place in medicine, but it will never see that day as a MNKD product with the current leadership. One can only hope that an experienced BP scoops the product up in liquidation and actually markets it effectively, here or overseas. MNKD will not be the company to do that in all likelihood. They can't dilute and I don't see stockholders authorizing another R/S. The fat lady is on the stage and the microphone is on.
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Post by victoria on Apr 21, 2017 14:22:51 GMT -5
I agree that the lady with the Microphone is on stage, I think that whatever will happen is now likely unavoidable whether for the good or not, ie the dice have rolled and either the cash and script situation kills MNKD or there is some big guy in the wings waiting to do a love duet with the lady, and its not as bad as appears (but that's not an evidence based view, sadly). As I've said many times, is a good product, and I'm not leaving. Since Im down to a value just over $1000 from an investment over all of 6 digits, theres no point selling anyhow.
One point which Dr Castagna made recently on twitter was I think interesting and I admit not to having considered it before, foolishly. In reply to a tweet from someone he said to the effect that things look different when you can see the actual numbers of cartridges being sold, not just scripts. This is an interesting point: if the current prescriptions are for larger standard packs of cartridges than were supplied by Sanofi (and I think they are, or am I recalling wrongly?) then one would really want to see an adjusted graph which plots the Sanofi (and immediately post Sanofi) scripts and then plots adjusted figures for the Mannkind scripts to reflect the actual quantity of product sold so as to compare like with like. Does anyone have a view or analysis on that basis?
Those of us not able to go to the Shareholders' meeting would very, very much appreciate it if one or more people could provide info/(lawful) recordings etc of the meeting as happened before.
Good luck all. I think we need some luck.
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Post by tingtongtung on Apr 21, 2017 14:27:11 GMT -5
It's depressing....
I still dont understand how MNKD is selling this.. They are in Valencia (Los Angeles) and Danbury. Even if they hire just 50 people, and talk to Drs only in LA AND do one-on-one with every patient from Dr-->prescription-->Insurance-->Drug delivery, I'm sure they could easily get 200 patients a week - isn't it? And, that will cost less than now too - IMO.
The plan they are falling, ROI is just not there. They are doing this again and again and again. I really dont understand. May be they have a plan? 3 years, and still we are in square 1?
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Post by radgray68 on Apr 21, 2017 14:27:17 GMT -5
"In the end, the thing that surprises me most, is when the diabetes world actually gets a gift like Afrezza, they are so slow to recognize it, that they potentially ensure its demise."
Central, I agree with your sentiment. It's almost like humanity wants to die. If you are a reader, I might suggest you read Ayn Rand's novel, "Atlas Shrugged." It's a long one, but it illustrates this horribly sad aspect of the human condition. The worst part for me is to hear the apathy from the average diabetic with regard to their own health. It's not just a doctor prescribing problem, the patients can be a barrier as well.
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Post by mnkdnut on Apr 21, 2017 14:27:28 GMT -5
The way I see it, MNKD has 2 large problems to solve. The first is how to get a large majority of new patients from prescription to happy refilling patients without losing them to lack of "efficacy". The ones we are seeing posting their CGM graphs on social media are the minority who have the determination, curiosity and awareness of their glucose levels to figure out how to optimize it for themselves through trial and error. Titration packs and nurse educators are required, but they alone are not enough. CGMs and better FDA labeling are also part of the answer, but MNKD has to figure that puzzle out, not only for increasing sales but to avoid committing to more trials and getting so-so performance again. Refills are just not happening - and its not just because of insurance coverage.
The second large problem is the huge credibility gap with the endo profession. The only way to overcome that is through high quality clinical trial data and publications in major journals. I think MNKD bet that they wouldn't need them right away because once patients tried it, they'd love it, spread the word and force doctors to prescribe. Turned out to be wrong. Too tricky to figure out for most docs and patients who already have too busy lives to do a deep dive on Afrezza. Most BPs would not have entered the market with the trial data MNKD had - the bar would have been set higher. Bottom line for me is that these problems are solvable, but only with hundreds of millions of dollars and years of focused effort. Who's going to pick up what's left of MNKD and make that investment? The hope that TS deals would have funded it seem to have dried up. How many more times can they kick the can down the road in 3-6 month increments? Time for someone with much deeper pockets and longer time horizon to take over. It's anyone's guess as to how much they'll pay.
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Post by silentknight on Apr 21, 2017 14:36:40 GMT -5
The way I see it, MNKD has 2 large problems to solve. The first is how to get a large majority of new patients from prescription to happy refilling patients without losing them to lack of "efficacy". The ones we are seeing posting their CGM graphs on social media are the minority who have the determination, curiosity and awareness of their glucose levels to figure out how to optimize it for themselves through trial and error. Titration packs and nurse educators are required, but they alone are not enough. CGMs and better FDA labeling are also part of the answer, but MNKD has to figure that puzzle out, not only for increasing sales but to avoid committing to more trials and getting so-so performance again. Refills are just not happening - and its not just because of insurance coverage. The second large problem is the huge credibility gap with the endo profession. The only way to overcome that is through high quality clinical trial data and publications in major journals. I think MNKD bet that they wouldn't need them right away because once patients tried it, they'd love it, spread the word and force doctors to prescribe. Turned out to be wrong. Too tricky to figure out for most docs and patients who already have too busy lives to do a deep dive on Afrezza. Most BPs would not have entered the market with the trial data MNKD had - the bar would have been set higher. Bottom line for me is that these problems are solvable, but only with hundreds of millions of dollars and years of focused effort. Who's going to pick up what's left of MNKD and make that investment? The hope that TS deals would have funded it seem to have dried up. How many more times can they kick the can down the road in 3-6 month increments? Time for someone with much deeper pockets and longer time horizon to take over. It's anyone's guess as to how much they'll pay. What they'll pay is likely irrelevant to current shareholders. If anyone buys Afrezza, it will likely be during liquidation at which point they can probably pick it up for a few million dollars at auction, long after the common stock has been cancelled by the bankruptcy court which leaves current shareholders at a total loss. Even buying the company outright at this point, based on current market cap, would only be approximately $77 million dollars. If someone wanted the company or its products, it would have been purchased by now. Nobody does.
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Post by peppy on Apr 21, 2017 14:52:37 GMT -5
I agree that the lady with the Microphone is on stage, I think that whatever will happen is now likely unavoidable whether for the good or not, ie the dice have rolled and either the cash and script situation kills MNKD or there is some big guy in the wings waiting to do a love duet with the lady, and its not as bad as appears (but that's not an evidence based view, sadly). As I've said many times, is a good product, and I'm not leaving. Since Im down to a value just over $1000 from an investment over all of 6 digits, theres no point selling anyhow. One point which Dr Castagna made recently on twitter was I think interesting and I admit not to having considered it before, foolishly. In reply to a tweet from someone he said to the effect that things look different when you can see the actual numbers of cartridges being sold, not just scripts. This is an interesting point: if the current prescriptions are for larger standard packs of cartridges than were supplied by Sanofi (and I think they are, or am I recalling wrongly?) then one would really want to see an adjusted graph which plots the Sanofi (and immediately post Sanofi) scripts and then plots adjusted figures for the Mannkind scripts to reflect the actual quantity of product sold so as to compare like with like. Does anyone have a view or analysis on that basis? Those of us not able to go to the Shareholders' meeting would very, very much appreciate it if one or more people could provide info/(lawful) recordings etc of the meeting as happened before. Good luck all. I think we need some luck. quote: things look different when you can see the actual numbers of cartridges being sold, not just scripts reply: I looked at that also. The titration pack 1040 units total. the 4 unit pack with 90 cartridges is 360 units total. the 30 4 unit and 60 eight unit is 600 units total.
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Post by kc on Apr 21, 2017 14:58:10 GMT -5
THE COMPANY SHOULD BE PUT UP FOR SALE. Hopefully Flynn will do that or is buying more shares as we speak and takes control of the company. WE NEED AN ACTIVIST INVESTOR to shake it up before we are dead. MANNKIND goes bankrupt then there will be no easy way to ever sell Afrezza to Diabetics.
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Post by bradleysbest on Apr 21, 2017 15:04:26 GMT -5
A sale of MNKD may be our best bet but we won't get nearly enough from a sale right now. I guess something (sale) is better than nothing (BK)......
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 21, 2017 15:04:49 GMT -5
One point which Dr Castagna made recently on twitter was I think interesting and I admit not to having considered it before, foolishly. In reply to a tweet from someone he said to the effect that things look different when you can see the actual numbers of cartridges being sold, not just scripts. This is an interesting point: if the current prescriptions are for larger standard packs of cartridges than were supplied by Sanofi (and I think they are, or am I recalling wrongly?) then one would really want to see an adjusted graph which plots the Sanofi (and immediately post Sanofi) scripts and then plots adjusted figures for the Mannkind scripts to reflect the actual quantity of product sold so as to compare like with like. Does anyone have a view or analysis on that basis? Presumably the Weekly Sales in $ reflects this ('actual quantity of product sold').
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 21, 2017 15:42:36 GMT -5
I agree that the lady with the Microphone is on stage, I think that whatever will happen is now likely unavoidable whether for the good or not, ie the dice have rolled and either the cash and script situation kills MNKD or there is some big guy in the wings waiting to do a love duet with the lady, and its not as bad as appears (but that's not an evidence based view, sadly). As I've said many times, is a good product, and I'm not leaving. Since Im down to a value just over $1000 from an investment over all of 6 digits, theres no point selling anyhow. One point which Dr Castagna made recently on twitter was I think interesting and I admit not to having considered it before, foolishly. In reply to a tweet from someone he said to the effect that things look different when you can see the actual numbers of cartridges being sold, not just scripts. This is an interesting point: if the current prescriptions are for larger standard packs of cartridges than were supplied by Sanofi (and I think they are, or am I recalling wrongly?) then one would really want to see an adjusted graph which plots the Sanofi (and immediately post Sanofi) scripts and then plots adjusted figures for the Mannkind scripts to reflect the actual quantity of product sold so as to compare like with like. Does anyone have a view or analysis on that basis? Those of us not able to go to the Shareholders' meeting would very, very much appreciate it if one or more people could provide info/(lawful) recordings etc of the meeting as happened before. Good luck all. I think we need some luck. "Long term UK investor, very underwater, using calls to try to recover quickly." Hi, Victoria, good to see your handle! Just wondering, who are you calling and can you give me the number?
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