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Post by harshal1981 on Apr 25, 2014 15:06:13 GMT -5
Still there are people who are betting against....
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Post by alcc on Apr 25, 2014 15:15:04 GMT -5
Wow. So, 1 out of 3 shares in the public float is shorted. Boggles the mind.
What is the total number of open calls? Anyways of getting that number without doing an actual tally? That might tell us something.
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Post by seanismorris on Apr 26, 2014 2:01:26 GMT -5
The shorts are in control at the moment (as seen by the decrease in share price) but it seems to be a very risky position to take given that the labeling negotiations between MNKD and the FDA could be completed at any time.
But, knowing the FDA's record with Mannkind it wouldn't surprise me if they took the full three months. So, perhaps the smart position is short... I'd rather wait for a short squeeze.
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Post by jpg on Apr 26, 2014 11:41:33 GMT -5
I would enjoy talking to someone who is adding to a short position in MNKD. What could they possibly see that is so different then what we see? Even if they are partially covered by (time constrained) synthetic instruments what is the logic behind this if the shorts aren't convinced they have a winning strategy?
JPG
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Post by orlon on Apr 26, 2014 16:42:32 GMT -5
What am I (we) missing as the number of shares shorted increase? The same thing happened prior to the last two CRLs, but this time should be different right?
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Post by biotec on Apr 26, 2014 18:03:16 GMT -5
Wow huge short position. What do they know? A 3rd CRL will kill us. Dilution is not off the table.No partnership talk.FDA relationship with MNKD has never been great.3 month extention from fda, why so long? Thats there ammo at this point. Hope the shorts are wrong.
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 26, 2014 22:25:50 GMT -5
Shorts are betting in no partnership prior to FDA decision. If FDA decision comes down and we're at 6.50, we go to $8 if approved, but $1.50 if not. I don't view that as a good gamble by shorts, but can't explain otherwise.
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Post by thsloppy on Apr 28, 2014 6:47:34 GMT -5
Based on the trading action of the last two news events (Study Results and Adcom), the pop is temporary and the stock settles back after a few weeks. My take is that shorts are conceding FDA approval based on Adcom but betting on a restrictive label which serves as a partnership poison pill that impacts commercial prospects. Add to that the cash position, dilution and the potential for another CRL and short odds start to make a little sense. Partnership is the ultimate justification at this point and the only true mover of the stock and forming of a solid basis at higher levels for longs. I do not see a partner prior to approval given the labeling unknowns. After approval, it will be a race against time or we see more dilution. How much competition will there be? What is Al willing to accept? How long is he willing to wait? A lot still has to go right for MNKD to generate the type of long returns that the risk employs. I'm still long but less than half of my prior.
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Post by spiro on Apr 28, 2014 8:32:33 GMT -5
IMO, the shorts are continuing to play Russian Roulette, but now with a lot more live bullets. One thing is certain, the label will be better than Exubera's, because Afrezza is a much better product. It is most likely that MNKD and it's potential partners already have a pretty good grasp on what the label will eventually be. www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2006/021868lbl.pdf
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Apr 28, 2014 13:29:40 GMT -5
What have the shorts been saying on the yahoo board? Have they posted anything of substance explaining why they are still short or is it the usual fear and propaganda?
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Post by thsloppy on Apr 29, 2014 5:36:36 GMT -5
Spiro...luv ya but I couldn't disagree more. If that were the case we would be announcing a deal.
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Post by spiro on Apr 29, 2014 9:00:16 GMT -5
Stay tuned !
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Post by ezrasfund on Apr 29, 2014 10:54:23 GMT -5
From your keyboard to God's ears, Spiro.
Right now the share price is about where it was last spring when MNKD announced that the trials were completed and end points had been met. It dropped when the data seemed to be just barely over the goal line, and now it has recovered to just those trial completion levels on the near unanimous AdCom vote. Judging from that history it is going to take positive news of approval and partnership to move the share price, and I don't expect any speculative price spikes.
As for the ever increasing short interest, there is hedging, for sure, but I think the shorts do engage in a flurry of selling with every hint of negative news, like the FDA briefing documents. When the dust settles and they look around, more people have taken an opportunity to buy discounted shares, and less have sold in fear or because of stop/loss orders.
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Post by ezrasfund on Apr 29, 2014 19:27:06 GMT -5
BTW the increase in the short interest of 4.5 million shares between 4/1 and 4/15 includes the trading on Fri 3/28 and Monday 3/31 when the price dropped to $4, as those trades were not settled until 4/3 and 4/4, and NASDAQ uses settlement dates. www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest
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Post by otherottawaguy on May 9, 2014 15:10:25 GMT -5
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