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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 22, 2017 7:20:43 GMT -5
The relatively recent graph showing a significant increase in sample packs distributed by the new sales team. Even though scripts have remained flat, the pps is in the tank and MNKD management is saying nothing, it is possible we are finally about to see scripts move up. If scripts continue to remain flat, it would mean that ALL diabetic recipients of these sample packs chose to disregard Afrezza which, based on user feedback, is highly unlikely. Additionally, there's a reason MNKD management is moving forward with commercials, supporting the upcoming reality series and has filed a notice regarding its management team and a potential change in ownership. Add to this Deerfield's decision to convert debt to equity and all together these signs foreshadow something. Wish we knew what. One of many possible scenarios is that MNKD is approaching the end of a lengthy evaluation period where some BP wanted confirmation of real world efficacy without problems before finalizing a deal to take it and run with it. I am as frustrated as anyone but remain convinced another chapter in this long running saga is about to unfold that won't be titled seven or eleven.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 22, 2017 7:48:33 GMT -5
The relatively recent graph showing a significant increase in sample packs distributed by the new sales team. Even though scripts have remained flat, the pps is in the tank and MNKD management is saying nothing, it is possible we are finally about to see scripts move up. If scripts continue to remain flat, it would mean that ALL diabetic recipients of these sample packs chose to disregard Afrezza which, based on user feedback, is highly unlikely. Additionally, there's a reason MNKD management is moving forward with commercials, supporting the upcoming reality series and has filed a notice regarding its management team and a potential change in ownership. Add to this Deerfield's decision to convert debt to equity and all together these signs foreshadow something. Wish we knew what. One of many possible scenarios is that MNKD is approaching the end of a lengthy evaluation period where some BP wanted confirmation of real world efficacy without problems before finalizing a deal to take it and run with it. I am as frustrated as anyone but remain convinced another chapter in this long running saga is about to unfold that won't be titled seven or eleven. In my mind this is the closest thing to reality I have read in days!
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Post by lennymnkd on Apr 22, 2017 8:47:25 GMT -5
Totally agree ! But what has me puzzled is all the board talk yesterday, about yesterday's sell off being Deerfield / and if it was , just how is Deerfield in our best interest as a equity holder .. I understand there is some bond / equity arbitrage munuvering going on , well above my understanding .. just hope they are not just cutting their loses with the stock and have a real game plan in our interest .
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Post by matt on Apr 22, 2017 9:25:31 GMT -5
...just hope they are not just cutting their loses with the stock and have a real game plan in our interest . The best way to evaluate any lender is to research the other deals they have done and see how they have behaved in similar circumstances. All investors (venture capital, private equity, hedge funds, etc.) all put some fluff text on their web pages about how they structure deals in the interest of the company to make it a win-win situation with both sides sharing the upside. Don't believe it for a second; institutional investors are in it for the bucks because their managers are compensated on total fund return, and anything that lowers total return is anathema to a fund manager. Go ahead and look at the Deerfield deals that have gone sideways, and there have been plenty of those, and see how they have behaved. If you think they have a game plan other than minimizing their loss then I think you will be disappointed. Small town banks will bend over backwards to support a local business that runs into trouble, partly because they are answerable to the community they serve; Deerfield is a multi-billion dollar hedge fund answerable to their investors. Calibrate your expectations accordingly.
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Post by ssiegel on Apr 22, 2017 9:28:40 GMT -5
The relatively recent graph showing a significant increase in sample packs distributed by the new sales team. Even though scripts have remained flat, the pps is in the tank and MNKD management is saying nothing, it is possible we are finally about to see scripts move up. If scripts continue to remain flat, it would mean that ALL diabetic recipients of these sample packs chose to disregard Afrezza which, based on user feedback, is highly unlikely. Additionally, there's a reason MNKD management is moving forward with commercials, supporting the upcoming reality series and has filed a notice regarding its management team and a potential change in ownership. Add to this Deerfield's decision to convert debt to equity and all together these signs foreshadow something. Wish we knew what. One of many possible scenarios is that MNKD is approaching the end of a lengthy evaluation period where some BP wanted confirmation of real world efficacy without problems before finalizing a deal to take it and run with it. I am as frustrated as anyone but remain convinced another chapter in this long running saga is about to unfold that won't be titled seven or eleven. Has Mannkind revealed how many sample packs have reached patients via the new sales team? Do we know how many of the new scripts are for titration packs versus the standard packs?
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Post by Cowgirl on Apr 22, 2017 10:05:16 GMT -5
The relatively recent graph showing a significant increase in sample packs distributed by the new sales team. Even though scripts have remained flat, the pps is in the tank and MNKD management is saying nothing, it is possible we are finally about to see scripts move up. If scripts continue to remain flat, it would mean that ALL diabetic recipients of these sample packs chose to disregard Afrezza which, based on user feedback, is highly unlikely. Additionally, there's a reason MNKD management is moving forward with commercials, supporting the upcoming reality series and has filed a notice regarding its management team and a potential change in ownership. Add to this Deerfield's decision to convert debt to equity and all together these signs foreshadow something. Wish we knew what. One of many possible scenarios is that MNKD is approaching the end of a lengthy evaluation period where some BP wanted confirmation of real world efficacy without problems before finalizing a deal to take it and run with it. I am as frustrated as anyone but remain convinced another chapter in this long running saga is about to unfold that won't be titled seven or eleven. In my mind this is the closest thing to reality I have read in days! They've converted debt to equity....YES...it would NORMALLY be a positive sign...but why is the price about 30% LOWER then when this financing was announced? It's because Deerfield is selling and even if not - it was A) dilutive and B) shows there are very little other options for mannkind...no white knight, no partner, no RLS, no int'l deal. And there is no cash left to be running the amount of commercials or even fund Pediatric trial nothing to say about long term saftey trial...
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Post by cjm18 on Apr 22, 2017 10:17:20 GMT -5
The relatively recent graph showing a significant increase in sample packs distributed by the new sales team. Even though scripts have remained flat, the pps is in the tank and MNKD management is saying nothing, it is possible we are finally about to see scripts move up. If scripts continue to remain flat, it would mean that ALL diabetic recipients of these sample packs chose to disregard Afrezza which, based on user feedback, is highly unlikely. Additionally, there's a reason MNKD management is moving forward with commercials, supporting the upcoming reality series and has filed a notice regarding its management team and a potential change in ownership. Add to this Deerfield's decision to convert debt to equity and all together these signs foreshadow something. Wish we knew what. One of many possible scenarios is that MNKD is approaching the end of a lengthy evaluation period where some BP wanted confirmation of real world efficacy without problems before finalizing a deal to take it and run with it. I am as frustrated as anyone but remain convinced another chapter in this long running saga is about to unfold that won't be titled seven or eleven. BP looking for confirmation of real world efficacy (need superiority trials, not just Tweets) or confirmation of a commercial viable product? Mike has tried to prove to us that the product is commercially viable in conference calls. It was one reason he didn't want to spend big bucks first on marketing. To put it simple. sales aren't close to that of sanofi even after dealing with other barriers (insurance, spriometry, small packaging, some dtc). Why would another BP invest 100s of millions of dollars to market afrezza until afrezza is commercially viable. Cut expenses. Get someone to work with mann foundation with deep pockets to take an equity stake for the cheap. Get the superiority trials and ped approval done. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.
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Post by slugworth008 on Apr 22, 2017 10:30:32 GMT -5
The relatively recent graph showing a significant increase in sample packs distributed by the new sales team. Even though scripts have remained flat, the pps is in the tank and MNKD management is saying nothing, it is possible we are finally about to see scripts move up. If scripts continue to remain flat, it would mean that ALL diabetic recipients of these sample packs chose to disregard Afrezza which, based on user feedback, is highly unlikely. Additionally, there's a reason MNKD management is moving forward with commercials, supporting the upcoming reality series and has filed a notice regarding its management team and a potential change in ownership. Add to this Deerfield's decision to convert debt to equity and all together these signs foreshadow something. Wish we knew what. One of many possible scenarios is that MNKD is approaching the end of a lengthy evaluation period where some BP wanted confirmation of real world efficacy without problems before finalizing a deal to take it and run with it. I am as frustrated as anyone but remain convinced another chapter in this long running saga is about to unfold that won't be titled seven or eleven. akemp - We've been around MNKD for a looong time. Great post - thanks for providing some much needed optimism.
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 22, 2017 10:41:32 GMT -5
Thanks SW! I definitely share our frustrations but I like knowing it could all change with one 60 second press release One additional thought is that Matt may have gone with the 5:1 R/S knowing it would be sufficient to keep the listing just long enough to reach the point of a forthcoming announcement. Let's hope!
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Apr 22, 2017 11:25:24 GMT -5
In my mind this is the closest thing to reality I have read in days! They've converted debt to equity....YES...it would NORMALLY be a positive sign...but why is the price about 30% LOWER then when this financing was announced? It's because Deerfield is selling and even if not - it was A) dilutive and B) shows there are very little other options for mannkind...no white knight, no partner, no RLS, no int'l deal. And there is no cash left to be running the amount of commercials or even fund Pediatric trial nothing to say about long term saftey trial... You crack me up. Have you ever posted anything that is positive or remotely optimistic? Not that I can remember.
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 22, 2017 11:35:22 GMT -5
They've converted debt to equity....YES...it would NORMALLY be a positive sign...but why is the price about 30% LOWER then when this financing was announced? It's because Deerfield is selling and even if not - it was A) dilutive and B) shows there are very little other options for mannkind...no white knight, no partner, no RLS, no int'l deal. And there is no cash left to be running the amount of commercials or even fund Pediatric trial nothing to say about long term saftey trial... You crack me up. Have you ever posted anything that is positive or remotely optimistic? Not that I can remember. CCI, I agree re Cowgirl and the tenor of her posts; however, I have to agree with her that Deerfield converting debt to equity in this situation is not a positive sign.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 22, 2017 15:07:46 GMT -5
The relatively recent graph showing a significant increase in sample packs distributed by the new sales team. Even though scripts have remained flat, the pps is in the tank and MNKD management is saying nothing, it is possible we are finally about to see scripts move up. If scripts continue to remain flat, it would mean that ALL diabetic recipients of these sample packs chose to disregard Afrezza which, based on user feedback, is highly unlikely. Additionally, there's a reason MNKD management is moving forward with commercials, supporting the upcoming reality series and has filed a notice regarding its management team and a potential change in ownership. Add to this Deerfield's decision to convert debt to equity and all together these signs foreshadow something. Wish we knew what. One of many possible scenarios is that MNKD is approaching the end of a lengthy evaluation period where some BP wanted confirmation of real world efficacy without problems before finalizing a deal to take it and run with it. I am as frustrated as anyone but remain convinced another chapter in this long running saga is about to unfold that won't be titled seven or eleven. I'd make two comments on the bolded... Just because reps have given sample packs to doctors does not mean they've gotten to patients. If reps are rewarded for placing samples they will sweet talk doctors staff in order to get them to sign for the samples. Further, based on feedback in the form of script refills and even feedback from patients themselves (dismissed by many here because of being negative Afrezza) we do know that a fair number of users in the past have had problems getting the results they wanted from Afrezza and discontinued use. I was chatting with a medical professional just a few weeks ago at a hotel bar and on me bringing up Afrezza he stated "It works for some, but it doesn't work for many." We can hope that this problem has been corrected, but we certainly have no strong evidence it has. So I wouldn't assume that sample packs going out makes it highly likely that scripts will increase. Change of control may have had to do with Deerfield conversion to equity... simply being cautious in case Deerfield tried a hostile takeover. But in reality Deerfield is likely just trying to get out whole rather than doubling down. I think the notion of some "evaluation period" is just as wishful thinking as when people were talking about the SNY period being an "evaluation" leading to them buying MNKD. Operating on a shoestring like MNKD has been forced to do isn't the way to "evaluate" anything. Confirmation of real world efficacy would require actual clinical trials. A BP isn't going to be checking twitter users' CGM postings to decide about acquisition. You're a very optimistic person if you find your own argument that bankruptcy can't happen to be convincing. I still believe there is a possibility they avoid bankruptcy, but I'm so far away from convinced I'd characterize it as a parallel universe.
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Post by slugworth008 on Apr 22, 2017 15:31:07 GMT -5
The relatively recent graph showing a significant increase in sample packs distributed by the new sales team. Even though scripts have remained flat, the pps is in the tank and MNKD management is saying nothing, it is possible we are finally about to see scripts move up. If scripts continue to remain flat, it would mean that ALL diabetic recipients of these sample packs chose to disregard Afrezza which, based on user feedback, is highly unlikely. Additionally, there's a reason MNKD management is moving forward with commercials, supporting the upcoming reality series and has filed a notice regarding its management team and a potential change in ownership. Add to this Deerfield's decision to convert debt to equity and all together these signs foreshadow something. Wish we knew what. One of many possible scenarios is that MNKD is approaching the end of a lengthy evaluation period where some BP wanted confirmation of real world efficacy without problems before finalizing a deal to take it and run with it. I am as frustrated as anyone but remain convinced another chapter in this long running saga is about to unfold that won't be titled seven or eleven. I'd make two comments on the bolded... Just because reps have given sample packs to doctors does not mean they've gotten to patients. If reps are rewarded for placing samples they will sweet talk doctors staff in order to get them to sign for the samples. Further, based on feedback in the form of script refills and even feedback from patients themselves (dismissed by many here because of being negative Afrezza) we do know that a fair number of users in the past have had problems getting the results they wanted from Afrezza and discontinued use. I was chatting with a medical professional just a few weeks ago at a hotel bar and on me bringing up Afrezza he stated "It works for some, but it doesn't work for many." We can hope that this problem has been corrected, but we certainly have no strong evidence it has. So I wouldn't assume that sample packs going out makes it highly likely that scripts will increase. Change of control may have had to do with Deerfield conversion to equity... simply being cautious in case Deerfield tried a hostile takeover. But in reality Deerfield is likely just trying to get out whole rather than doubling down. I think the notion of some "evaluation period" is just as wishful thinking as when people were talking about the SNY period being an "evaluation" leading to them buying MNKD. Operating on a shoestring like MNKD has been forced to do isn't the way to "evaluate" anything. Confirmation of real world efficacy would require actual clinical trials. A BP isn't going to be checking twitter users' CGM postings to decide about acquisition. You're a very optimistic person if you find your own argument that bankruptcy can't happen to be convincing. I still believe there is a possibility they avoid bankruptcy, but I'm so far away from convinced I'd characterize it as a parallel universe. We'll DB well find out pretty damn soon now won't we. If they pull another rabbit out of their hat I'll look forward to your comments in that.
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Post by lakers on Apr 22, 2017 15:45:21 GMT -5
On April 1st, Mnkd would run out of cash this July. How will Mnkd plan to raise cash without diluting shareholders? As Matt stated on 3/16/17, subsequent to the settlement with Sanofi, our cash balance didn't require an immediate need for funding. We are, obviously, continuing discussions with our current noteholders and other financing opportunities we have been approached with. Matt continues to focus on non-dilutive opportunities, if possible. Deerfield deal followed. Ponder this for a moment. $10M is still due this July. Mnkd hasn't announced how to finance or pay cash for it. In addition, Mnkd needs to extend the runway by 6 additional months to Jan 2018 to see DTC effect and prove commercial viability before big BPs get involve. That's $70 M funding Mnkd needs. Draw your own conclusion. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/6408/mnkd-state-union?page=19#ixzz4f0r51KZT
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 22, 2017 15:47:06 GMT -5
We'll DB well find out pretty damn soon now won't we. If they pull another rabbit out of their hat I'll look forward to your comments in that. If they pull a rabbit out of a hat, I shall gladly eat crow and sing the praises of Matt. Though first I will likely run around my neighborhood doing the happy dance... www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFNLbAs3KAU
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