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Post by gamblerjag on Apr 23, 2017 20:58:38 GMT -5
I just don't think that MNKD (mainly Mike since Matt has been silent) would say the positive things over the last couple of months.. still pumping "Reversed" if they were not going to make the July deadline a thing of the past.. I'm guessing they Have a Plan. So far they haven't disappointed coming out of the most dire situations. Buying more Tuesday.. cont. good luck. Remember Mike bought about 100,000 shares when we were at 90 cents pre split (know 4.50 post) I don't believe for a second he did that to get us over the $1 to avoid delisting. Someone said here the other day that Matt said the deal (s) were complicated. Matt's silence is because of that complication.. GL
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 24, 2017 8:18:15 GMT -5
Agreed GJ! The actions of MNKD and the silence of management doesn't even hint of a stressful scenario. If it was as dire as some are projecting, you would see key managers exiting at this time to get in front of the curve. While it's easy to project doom based on what's known publicly, there's more reason to believe there's action going on behind the scenes that will be positive.
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Post by oldfishtowner on Apr 24, 2017 12:22:17 GMT -5
Agreed GJ! The actions of MNKD and the silence of management doesn't even hint of a stressful scenario. If it was as dire as some are projecting, you would see key managers exiting at this time to get in front of the curve. While it's easy to project doom based on what's known publicly, there's more reason to believe there's action going on behind the scenes that will be positive. I hope you're right, but what bothers me is that a corporate goal listed in the proxy statement (page 31) is " Pursue licensing and distribution agreements for the sale of Afrezza in foreign jurisdictions." Another is "Pursue license agreements related to MannKind’s technology (for products other than Afrezza)." Pursue? What does this mean, that Matt calls a couple of BP and he checks off these goals? Seems pretty lame when we what we need is to get a partnership deal signed sealed and delivered in short order in order to avoid bankruptcy. I am compelled to interpret these goals as saying that the likelihood of getting any partnership or licensing agreement is very low, so the board isn't forcing management into a goal that is unattainable. Then again, should management get their bonuses if the company goes bankrupt? Nowhere in the goals is anything that says "Avoid bankruptcy" or "Extend cash runway to 2018." The only financial goal is "Extend MannKind’s financial resources." How much - one month, two months? Does the recent debt for equity exchange qualify as satisfying this goal? The board is certainly not holding management's feet to the fire in getting them to perform, i.e., save the company. Are things so dire that management cannot be held responsible for failing to maintain the company as a going concern through the end of the year? While another goal is "Publish data from completed post-marketing studies at and submit clinical study reports to the FDA," there is no goal to complete or even start any of the planned clinical trials. Why? What I am saying is that the corporate goals speak volumes to me. And I do not like what I hear. I am still holding my shares and hoping for a miracle, like you. What else is there to do, since there isn't much to salvage by selling now. But at this point, this is not an investment. It is a craps game. And pretty crappy at that when you are betting to win.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 24, 2017 12:42:30 GMT -5
Agreed GJ! The actions of MNKD and the silence of management doesn't even hint of a stressful scenario. If it was as dire as some are projecting, you would see key managers exiting at this time to get in front of the curve. While it's easy to project doom based on what's known publicly, there's more reason to believe there's action going on behind the scenes that will be positive. Bailing on your company when things get tough isn't a brilliant career move. There really isn't "more reason" to believe in some white swan. It is wishful thinking. I don't rule it out, but any logical analysis would be that it is only becoming more and more difficult to find funding or partners as time passes. You have NO IDEA whether Matt is stressed or not unless you've bugged his office or home. It's crazy basing analysis on your guess about Matt's mental state. Actually, if you could prove Matt isn't stressed until signatures are dry on agreements I'd sell my stake right now. Even if he has something that seems promising to him, as we're racing towards bankruptcy he'd better not be anything other than stressed. Deals aren't done until they are DONE... believing otherwise would be malfeasance on managements part. They undoubtedly have a plan and there is action behind the scenes. We also know that MNKD has had many, many plans not succeed.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 24, 2017 12:57:34 GMT -5
Agreed GJ! The actions of MNKD and the silence of management doesn't even hint of a stressful scenario. If it was as dire as some are projecting, you would see key managers exiting at this time to get in front of the curve. While it's easy to project doom based on what's known publicly, there's more reason to believe there's action going on behind the scenes that will be positive. Bailing on your company when things get tough isn't a brilliant career move. There really isn't "more reason" to believe in some white swan. It is wishful thinking. I don't rule it out, but any logical analysis would be that it is only becoming more and more difficult to find funding or partners as time passes. You have NO IDEA whether Matt is stressed or not unless you've bugged his office or home. It's crazy basing analysis on your guess about Matt's mental state. Actually, if you could prove Matt isn't stressed until signatures are dry on agreements I'd sell my stake right now. Even if he has something that seems promising to him, as we're racing towards bankruptcy he'd better not be anything other than stressed. Deals aren't done until they are DONE... believing otherwise would be malfeasance on managements part. They undoubtedly have a plan and there is action behind the scenes. We also know that MNKD has had many, many plans not succeed. That's not fair. You have NO IDEA if we are racing towards BK. And I'll bet what stresses Matt out the most is people that posts things like that.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 24, 2017 12:59:02 GMT -5
oldfishtowner... sadly you are probably onto something. We can only hope they over perform relative to goals. That will be bizarre if they achieve their goals after going through bankruptcy. I hope this company isn't like one I worked for where management gave themselves big bonuses for doing a merger and then when it ended up being a disaster and tanking the share price, they gave themselves retention bonuses since obviously they wouldn't otherwise stick around in the awful mess they had created. With these goals, MNKD management could give themselves both a performance bonus and a retention bonus while they are filing for bankruptcy.
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 24, 2017 13:40:40 GMT -5
Bailing on your company is not a brilliant career move unless the alternative is having to look for a job and feed your family while being unemployed which is the point. While it's not always the case, it's relatively common to see executives depart or be fired if a company is in serious trouble which we're not seeing. It's also true that no one knows how much stress anyone is under. The post is simply an opinion that MNKD's silence and actions over the past couple of months appear to indicate there's something going on behind the scenes that will soon be positive more than indicating doom and gloom.
Regarding goals, I have structured compensation plans that intentionally included easy goals, challenging goals and stretch goals. The only goals I care about are the corporate goals of selling Afrezza, increasing scripts, selling TS technology and raising the pps. Individual goals and compensation packages are just a distraction from the bigger picture...all IMHO
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Post by silentknight on Apr 24, 2017 13:41:19 GMT -5
oldfishtowner ... sadly you are probably onto something. We can only hope they over perform relative to goals. That will be bizarre if they achieve their goals after going through bankruptcy. I hope this company isn't like one I worked for where management gave themselves big bonuses for doing a merger and then when it ended up being a disaster and tanking the share price, they gave themselves retention bonuses since obviously they wouldn't otherwise stick around in the awful mess they had created. With these goals, MNKD management could give themselves both a performance bonus and a retention bonus while they are filing for bankruptcy. Your scenario would not surprise me in the least bit for this BoD, considering what we've seen lately and their pat on the back this year, saying they've achieved 60% of their previous goals. If this is their idea of success, I'd hate to see failure. Given the wordsmithing of this year's goals to be able to do it again, it's all the more reason to vote to oust every single one of them from their seats. My votes have been cast already.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 24, 2017 13:51:36 GMT -5
Bailing on your company when things get tough isn't a brilliant career move. There really isn't "more reason" to believe in some white swan. It is wishful thinking. I don't rule it out, but any logical analysis would be that it is only becoming more and more difficult to find funding or partners as time passes. You have NO IDEA whether Matt is stressed or not unless you've bugged his office or home. It's crazy basing analysis on your guess about Matt's mental state. Actually, if you could prove Matt isn't stressed until signatures are dry on agreements I'd sell my stake right now. Even if he has something that seems promising to him, as we're racing towards bankruptcy he'd better not be anything other than stressed. Deals aren't done until they are DONE... believing otherwise would be malfeasance on managements part. They undoubtedly have a plan and there is action behind the scenes. We also know that MNKD has had many, many plans not succeed. That's not fair. You have NO IDEA if we are racing towards BK. And I'll bet what stresses Matt out the most is people that posts things like that. Respectfully... Yes... we are. If there were a done deal it would be material and would have to be announced. If there is no DONE deal, we are racing towards bankruptcy. The share price is tanking, which would put many types of deals in jeopardy. Further, deals fall through all the time for reasons outside the control of the company. Or there might not even be a deal on the table. I'm not saying there is zero chance of avoiding bankruptcy, but the "idea" that I have is based on balance sheet, income statement and simple math. Even if it is avoided, the FACT that the wall is rapidly approaching puts MNKD in a very weak negotiating position. As we get closer and closer, and we are, financing options will likely be more and more painful. Could increasing scripts help change financial prospects... yes. But there to, I have data to look at... so not being overly optimistic about opinion changing script turn around in the time frame we need isn't from a position of having "no idea". Might enough doctors' minds have been changed such that DTC adverts will be successful in generating scripts... possibly... but that certainly isn't something that can be taken for granted. I hope things turn out better than I believe they are likely to. As the share price continues down each day, I even have seriously considered throwing a small amount of money on some out of the money calls. So far though, my reasoning side as overridden the gambling side.
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Post by silentknight on Apr 24, 2017 14:05:38 GMT -5
That's not fair. You have NO IDEA if we are racing towards BK. And I'll bet what stresses Matt out the most is people that posts things like that. Respectfully... Yes... we are. If there were a done deal it would be material and would have to be announced. If there is no DONE deal, we are racing towards bankruptcy. The share price is tanking, which would put many types of deals in jeopardy. Further, deals fall through all the time for reasons outside the control of the company. Or there might not even be a deal on the table. I'm not saying there is zero chance of avoiding bankruptcy, but the "idea" that I have is based on balance sheet, income statement and simple math. Even if it is avoided, the FACT that the wall is rapidly approaching puts MNKD in a very weak negotiating position. As we get closer and closer, and we are, financing options will likely be more and more painful. Could increasing scripts help change financial prospects... yes. But there to, I have data to look at... so not being overly optimistic about opinion changing script turn around in the time frame we need isn't from a position of having "no idea". Might enough doctors' minds have been changed such that DTC adverts will be successful in generating scripts... possibly... but that certainly isn't something that can be taken for granted. I hope things turn out better than I believe they are likely to. As the share price continues down each day, I even have seriously considered throwing a small amount of money on some out of the money calls. So far though, my reasoning side as overridden the gambling side. Another thing to remember about financing; There isn't going to be another Sanofi settlement to save the day on extending the runway. Sanofi has now wiped their hands clean of MNKD and they won't be opening the checkbook again to free itself of the taint of the former partnership. It's pretty telling that the deal with Deerfield involved debt for equity (dilution) as opposed to a re-negotiation of terms. To me, that tells me that Deerfield is willing to take what they can NOW and write off losses as opposed to giving MNKD more time to right the ship. Any future financing deals will likely be equally as painful, if not more so. As dream pointed out, if there was a deal, it would have to be announced as a material event. There haven't been. I highly doubt a deal is even in the works based on script numbers alone. People have believed that a deal has been in the works since the day Sanofi walked away. Here we are almost 18 months later with the share price lingering just above zero (pre-split) with no deal in sight. At this point, ANY pharma company with any interest in Afrezza could swoop in and acquire the company outright in a hostile takeover for less than $100 million dollars. That's a rounding error for a big pharma. Pocketchange. They aren't. Why? Because it makes better business sense to let the company die and pay even less if you want anything MNKD has.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 24, 2017 14:07:08 GMT -5
That's not fair. You have NO IDEA if we are racing towards BK. And I'll bet what stresses Matt out the most is people that posts things like that. Respectfully... Yes... we are. If there were a done deal it would be material and would have to be announced. If there is no DONE deal, we are racing towards bankruptcy. The share price is tanking, which would put many types of deals in jeopardy. Further, deals fall through all the time for reasons outside the control of the company. Or there might not even be a deal on the table. I'm not saying there is zero chance of avoiding bankruptcy, but the "idea" that I have is based on balance sheet, income statement and simple math. Even if it is avoided, the FACT that the wall is rapidly approaching puts MNKD in a very weak negotiating position. As we get closer and closer, and we are, financing options will likely be more and more painful. Could increasing scripts help change financial prospects... yes. But there to, I have data to look at... so not being overly optimistic about opinion changing script turn around in the time frame we need isn't from a position of having "no idea". Might enough doctors' minds have been changed such that DTC adverts will be successful in generating scripts... possibly... but that certainly isn't something that can be taken for granted. I hope things turn out better than I believe they are likely to. As the share price continues down each day, I even have seriously considered throwing a small amount of money on some out of the money calls. So far though, my reasoning side as overridden the gambling side. I see your point but I think there may be deals on the table that are not done and may be waiting to be finalized depending on script traction. And that maybe why the pps jumps so much as scripts gain ground.
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Post by bones1026 on Apr 24, 2017 14:27:38 GMT -5
Respectfully... Yes... we are. If there were a done deal it would be material and would have to be announced. If there is no DONE deal, we are racing towards bankruptcy. The share price is tanking, which would put many types of deals in jeopardy. Further, deals fall through all the time for reasons outside the control of the company. Or there might not even be a deal on the table. I'm not saying there is zero chance of avoiding bankruptcy, but the "idea" that I have is based on balance sheet, income statement and simple math. Even if it is avoided, the FACT that the wall is rapidly approaching puts MNKD in a very weak negotiating position. As we get closer and closer, and we are, financing options will likely be more and more painful. Could increasing scripts help change financial prospects... yes. But there to, I have data to look at... so not being overly optimistic about opinion changing script turn around in the time frame we need isn't from a position of having "no idea". Might enough doctors' minds have been changed such that DTC adverts will be successful in generating scripts... possibly... but that certainly isn't something that can be taken for granted. I hope things turn out better than I believe they are likely to. As the share price continues down each day, I even have seriously considered throwing a small amount of money on some out of the money calls. So far though, my reasoning side as overridden the gambling side. Another thing to remember about financing; There isn't going to be another Sanofi settlement to save the day on extending the runway. Sanofi has now wiped their hands clean of MNKD and they won't be opening the checkbook again to free itself of the taint of the former partnership. It's pretty telling that the deal with Deerfield involved debt for equity (dilution) as opposed to a re-negotiation of terms. To me, that tells me that Deerfield is willing to take what they can NOW and write off losses as opposed to giving MNKD more time to right the ship. Any future financing deals will likely be equally as painful, if not more so. As dream pointed out, if there was a deal, it would have to be announced as a material event. There haven't been. I highly doubt a deal is even in the works based on script numbers alone. People have believed that a deal has been in the works since the day Sanofi walked away. Here we are almost 18 months later with the share price lingering just above zero (pre-split) with no deal in sight. At this point, ANY pharma company with any interest in Afrezza could swoop in and acquire the company outright in a hostile takeover for less than $100 million dollars. That's a rounding error for a big pharma. Pocketchange. They aren't. Why? Because it makes better business sense to let the company die and pay even less if you want anything MNKD has. [/quote You two always seem to respond to each other's posts....within minutes (dreamboat and Silent)...timing is impeccable
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Post by silentknight on Apr 24, 2017 14:35:36 GMT -5
Another thing to remember about financing; There isn't going to be another Sanofi settlement to save the day on extending the runway. Sanofi has now wiped their hands clean of MNKD and they won't be opening the checkbook again to free itself of the taint of the former partnership. It's pretty telling that the deal with Deerfield involved debt for equity (dilution) as opposed to a re-negotiation of terms. To me, that tells me that Deerfield is willing to take what they can NOW and write off losses as opposed to giving MNKD more time to right the ship. Any future financing deals will likely be equally as painful, if not more so. As dream pointed out, if there was a deal, it would have to be announced as a material event. There haven't been. I highly doubt a deal is even in the works based on script numbers alone. People have believed that a deal has been in the works since the day Sanofi walked away. Here we are almost 18 months later with the share price lingering just above zero (pre-split) with no deal in sight. At this point, ANY pharma company with any interest in Afrezza could swoop in and acquire the company outright in a hostile takeover for less than $100 million dollars. That's a rounding error for a big pharma. Pocketchange. They aren't. Why? Because it makes better business sense to let the company die and pay even less if you want anything MNKD has. [/quote You two always seem to respond to each other's posts....within minutes (dreamboat and Silent)...timing is impeccable I respond to a lot of posts. What's your point?
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Post by kbrion77 on Apr 24, 2017 14:38:33 GMT -5
Respectfully... Yes... we are. If there were a done deal it would be material and would have to be announced. If there is no DONE deal, we are racing towards bankruptcy. The share price is tanking, which would put many types of deals in jeopardy. Further, deals fall through all the time for reasons outside the control of the company. Or there might not even be a deal on the table. I'm not saying there is zero chance of avoiding bankruptcy, but the "idea" that I have is based on balance sheet, income statement and simple math. Even if it is avoided, the FACT that the wall is rapidly approaching puts MNKD in a very weak negotiating position. As we get closer and closer, and we are, financing options will likely be more and more painful. Could increasing scripts help change financial prospects... yes. But there to, I have data to look at... so not being overly optimistic about opinion changing script turn around in the time frame we need isn't from a position of having "no idea". Might enough doctors' minds have been changed such that DTC adverts will be successful in generating scripts... possibly... but that certainly isn't something that can be taken for granted. I hope things turn out better than I believe they are likely to. As the share price continues down each day, I even have seriously considered throwing a small amount of money on some out of the money calls. So far though, my reasoning side as overridden the gambling side. Another thing to remember about financing; There isn't going to be another Sanofi settlement to save the day on extending the runway. Sanofi has now wiped their hands clean of MNKD and they won't be opening the checkbook again to free itself of the taint of the former partnership. It's pretty telling that the deal with Deerfield involved debt for equity (dilution) as opposed to a re-negotiation of terms. To me, that tells me that Deerfield is willing to take what they can NOW and write off losses as opposed to giving MNKD more time to right the ship. Any future financing deals will likely be equally as painful, if not more so. As dream pointed out, if there was a deal, it would have to be announced as a material event. There haven't been. I highly doubt a deal is even in the works based on script numbers alone. People have believed that a deal has been in the works since the day Sanofi walked away. Here we are almost 18 months later with the share price lingering just above zero (pre-split) with no deal in sight. At this point, ANY pharma company with any interest in Afrezza could swoop in and acquire the company outright in a hostile takeover for less than $100 million dollars. That's a rounding error for a big pharma. Pocketchange. They aren't. Why? Because it makes better business sense to let the company die and pay even less if you want anything MNKD has. It's all about cash. If MNKD had $100MM in the bank rather than $35MM I think you could have seen a takeover. At this point the takeover company would literally be saving MNKD rather than taking it over, not good business practice.
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 24, 2017 14:49:48 GMT -5
It's worth pointing out again that the gloomy future believed by some could turn out to be correct or it could be dead wrong because it is based solely on the limited information that is known publicly. Forthcoming material events do not have to be announced during negotiations that are ongoing prior to being finalized. It seems Sportsrancho, myself and many others believe there is significant action going on behind the scenes that has not yet been made public but will be soon. While it's great we can all share opinions, neither will be proven correct or incorrect until the next action or announcement occurs. GLTA
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