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Post by Cowgirl on Apr 24, 2017 9:25:41 GMT -5
That we've hired an investment bank to explore all options at this time to include selling the company. At least there'd be a morsel of hope that someone will buy us for ,say,$150 Mil and the pain and suffering would be over.
It takes at least $1 Billion to get an FDA approved drug. We've got that. And our drug works in spades for those taking it...so someone with some deep pockets has to be interested for a song....or at least you'd think.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2017 9:44:46 GMT -5
You aren't paying 150 million. You have to throw in the debt and the lung safety trial also.
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 24, 2017 10:01:55 GMT -5
... and a large scale superiority trial.
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Post by nadathing on Apr 24, 2017 10:31:55 GMT -5
That we've hired an investment bank to explore all options at this time to include selling the company. At least there'd be a morsel of hope that someone will buy us for ,say,$150 Mil and the pain and suffering would be over. It takes at least $1 Billion to get an FDA approved drug. We've got that. And our drug works in spades for those taking it...so someone with some deep pockets has to be interested for a song....or at least you'd think. No it does not "work in spades for those taking it". Very few have achieved good results. The proof is in the lack of refills of scripts. The claim that the cost is causing people not to refill is ridiculous. I wouldn't fill a script the first time if I knew I couldn't afford a refill. Would anyone? |
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 24, 2017 10:49:44 GMT -5
That we've hired an investment bank to explore all options at this time to include selling the company. At least there'd be a morsel of hope that someone will buy us for ,say,$150 Mil and the pain and suffering would be over. It takes at least $1 Billion to get an FDA approved drug. We've got that. And our drug works in spades for those taking it...so someone with some deep pockets has to be interested for a song....or at least you'd think. No it does not "work in spades for those taking it". Very few have achieved good results. The proof is in the lack of refills of scripts. The claim that the cost is causing people not to refill is ridiculous. I wouldn't fill a script the first time if I knew I couldn't afford a refill. Would anyone? No I would not. But people are getting scripts, having good results, and then their insurance is saying no. You have to take another meal time first. ( Like they haven't already been doing that for years!) |
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Post by matt on Apr 24, 2017 10:49:56 GMT -5
That we've hired an investment bank to explore all options at this time to include selling the company. Unless the board and outside legal counsel are totally, completely, and negligently asleep at the switch, this has happened some time ago. The fact that the board suddenly approved golden parachutes for the seven top executives is a hint that this may be happening. It is common for struggling biotechs to quietly hire investment banks to advise on next best steps, financing strategies, and to shop the company for some form of deal whether that is a purchase or a marketing arrangement. Such engagements generally take 45-60 days between compiling an information package, shopping to the list of potentially interested parties, and getting expressions of interest or lack thereof. Plenty of time has gone by so either there are no takers under the current conditions, or there is somebody getting ready to finalize an offer, but shareholders have no way to know if an offer is happening or not until it lands on Matt's desk. The trouble with getting a deal is that Afrezza has to fit into the product portfolio of the acquiring company, meaning that he company must be heavily engaged in the diabetes segment with established call points and reimbursement relationships. That pretty much limits the list of potential suitors to Lilly, Novo, and Sanofi. Sanofi has had their bite at the apple and found it not to their liking, and Lilly and Novo might not want to pay up for a drug that potentially cannibalizes their existing products. Of course some third company might decide to jump into the cold and deep water of the insulin market, despite rapidly declining profit margins and two strong competitors and one weaker one, but that seems less likely. Announcing that a bank has been hired to shop the company is tacit admission that the company cannot make it on its own, but board generally like to keep that quiet even if it is evident to the market. If the board announces that a bank has been hired to shop the company and there is no deal 60 days later, negative rumors start and that creates additional problems. |
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Post by chuck on Apr 24, 2017 11:12:58 GMT -5
That we've hired an investment bank to explore all options at this time to include selling the company. Unless the board and outside legal counsel are totally, completely, and negligently asleep at the switch, this has happened some time ago. The fact that the board suddenly approved golden parachutes for the seven top executives is a hint that this may be happening. It is common for struggling biotechs to quietly hire investment banks to advise on next best steps, financing strategies, and to shop the company for some form of deal whether that is a purchase or a marketing arrangement. Such engagements generally take 45-60 days between compiling an information package, shopping to the list of potentially interested parties, and getting expressions of interest or lack thereof. Plenty of time has gone by so either there are no takers under the current conditions, or there is somebody getting ready to finalize an offer, but shareholders have no way to know if an offer is happening or not until it lands on Matt's desk. The trouble with getting a deal is that Afrezza has to fit into the product portfolio of the acquiring company, meaning that he company must be heavily engaged in the diabetes segment with established call points and reimbursement relationships. That pretty much limits the list of potential suitors to Lilly, Novo, and Sanofi. Sanofi has had their bite at the apple and found it not to their liking, and Lilly and Novo might not want to pay up for a drug that potentially cannibalizes their existing products. Of course some third company might decide to jump into the cold and deep water of the insulin market, despite rapidly declining profit margins and two strong competitors and one weaker one, but that seems less likely. Announcing that a bank has been hired to shop the company is tacit admission that the company cannot make it on its own, but board generally like to keep that quiet even if it is evident to the market. If the board announces that a bank has been hired to shop the company and there is no deal 60 days later, negative rumors start and that creates additional problems. Unfortunately the patents and manufacturing infrastructure for Afrezza aren't worth more than the debt outstanding so its unlikely there would be a bid for the equity. The only deal that makes sense is for Novo or Lilly to acquire Afrezza and related assets following bankruptcy for a nominal sum. They fold Afrezza into their current portfolio, and all mnkd employees are not part of the deal such that they effectively get let go. They devote little to no resources to sales or marketing and continue to offer the product for existing users. This brings the break-even level down substantially. They go back to the lab to do label enhancement studies with the goal of being able to position the product as a clear improvement over existing treatments for a clearly defined niche market. |
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Post by slugworth008 on Apr 24, 2017 11:19:15 GMT -5
Apple buys MNKD and partners with IBM's Watson platform and realtime glucose monitoring with the new super secret iWatch occurs.
NOVO and LILLY can't touch APPLE - Afrezza crushes it! And we longs actually breakeven. Disclosure: I live in Beaverton,OR and weed is legal here.
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Post by zuegirdor on Apr 24, 2017 11:42:27 GMT -5
Slug,
I think something like REAL TIME Glucose sensing watch with an alarm set at 100 and rising would nail it-eliminate the 20 minute lag of current interstitial sensing & any guesswork about a follow up. As long as the user can hear the alarm or feel the vibration it would almost exactly duplicate insulin response of pancreas (Pancreatic secretion is lower amplitude and higher frequency than Afrezza dosing and follow ups are "automatic").
Might be that overwhelming support by users or endos has to wait for the sensing tech to catch up? It would be almost effortless if we could trust our tech. Not to bash but, while fairly reliable, my family finds the current CGM tech a little frustrating at times. I wonder if this or the complete lack of CGM for some patients trying Afrezza is a partial explanation for low Refills?
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Post by peppy on Apr 24, 2017 11:56:20 GMT -5
Slug, I think something like REAL TIME Glucose sensing watch with an alarm set at 100 and rising would nail it-eliminate the 20 minute lag of current interstitial sensing & any guesswork about a follow up. As long as the user can hear the alarm or feel the vibration it would almost exactly duplicate insulin response of pancreas (Pancreatic secretion is lower amplitude and higher frequency than Afrezza dosing and follow ups are "automatic"). Might be that overwhelming support by users or endos has to wait for the sensing tech to catch up? It would be almost effortless if we could trust our tech. Not to bash but, while fairly reliable, my family finds the current CGM tech a little frustrating at times. I wonder if this or the complete lack of CGM for some patients trying Afrezza is a partial explanation for low Refills? Zuegirdor, was it you that said you figured out how afrezza guy was dosing and cut the amount of afrezza being used as well? Did you say, you found taking the follow up dose as soon as levels begin to rise, keeps the blood glucose in tight control and cuts down the afrezza needed? Can you say more about what you have found?
When Apple gets the glucose sensing technology on that watch we all will have a reason to buy one. It will be fun. we can see what happens when we eat, what. Plus see what happens to our blood glucose when we exercise.
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Post by slugworth008 on Apr 24, 2017 12:06:22 GMT -5
Slug, I think something like REAL TIME Glucose sensing watch with an alarm set at 100 and rising would nail it-eliminate the 20 minute lag of current interstitial sensing & any guesswork about a follow up. As long as the user can hear the alarm or feel the vibration it would almost exactly duplicate insulin response of pancreas (Pancreatic secretion is lower amplitude and higher frequency than Afrezza dosing and follow ups are "automatic"). Might be that overwhelming support by users or endos has to wait for the sensing tech to catch up? It would be almost effortless if we could trust our tech. Not to bash but, while fairly reliable, my family finds the current CGM tech a little frustrating at times. I wonder if this or the complete lack of CGM for some patients trying Afrezza is a partial explanation for low Refills? Good thoughts zuegridor! There really is an opportunity for Apple and IBM here - will it happen - Hell no to most likely not...But it would be saweet to see two iconic American companies team up to put a beatdown on diabetes (And NOVO and LILLY in the process). And IMO - it will take a company that does NOT have a current stake in protecting inferior treatment options. It's something that Steve Jobs would tackle if he was still with us - IMO Just think what the Apple marketing team could do for Afrezza. |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 24, 2017 12:06:55 GMT -5
Slug, I think something like REAL TIME Glucose sensing watch with an alarm set at 100 and rising would nail it-eliminate the 20 minute lag of current interstitial sensing & any guesswork about a follow up. As long as the user can hear the alarm or feel the vibration it would almost exactly duplicate insulin response of pancreas (Pancreatic secretion is lower amplitude and higher frequency than Afrezza dosing and follow ups are "automatic"). Might be that overwhelming support by users or endos has to wait for the sensing tech to catch up? It would be almost effortless if we could trust our tech. Not to bash but, while fairly reliable, my family finds the current CGM tech a little frustrating at times. I wonder if this or the complete lack of CGM for some patients trying Afrezza is a partial explanation for low Refills? Compression lows anyone? If you lie on the sensor it tends to think you are lower than you are and alarming. This can be offset by your body blocking the signal to the receiver so it doesn't notice that it is misreading  This is before we get to trying to get the thing back on track after it has wandered off... |
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Post by slugworth008 on Apr 24, 2017 12:08:16 GMT -5
Slug, I think something like REAL TIME Glucose sensing watch with an alarm set at 100 and rising would nail it-eliminate the 20 minute lag of current interstitial sensing & any guesswork about a follow up. As long as the user can hear the alarm or feel the vibration it would almost exactly duplicate insulin response of pancreas (Pancreatic secretion is lower amplitude and higher frequency than Afrezza dosing and follow ups are "automatic"). Might be that overwhelming support by users or endos has to wait for the sensing tech to catch up? It would be almost effortless if we could trust our tech. Not to bash but, while fairly reliable, my family finds the current CGM tech a little frustrating at times. I wonder if this or the complete lack of CGM for some patients trying Afrezza is a partial explanation for low Refills? Compression lows anyone? If you lie on the sensor it tends to think you are lower than you are and alarming. This can be offset by your body blocking the signal to the receiver so it doesn't notice that it is misreading This is before we get to trying to get the thing back on track after it has wandered off... I figured you'd be one of the first to chime in aged one  |
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Post by peppy on Apr 24, 2017 12:14:42 GMT -5
Slug, I think something like REAL TIME Glucose sensing watch with an alarm set at 100 and rising would nail it-eliminate the 20 minute lag of current interstitial sensing & any guesswork about a follow up. As long as the user can hear the alarm or feel the vibration it would almost exactly duplicate insulin response of pancreas (Pancreatic secretion is lower amplitude and higher frequency than Afrezza dosing and follow ups are "automatic"). Might be that overwhelming support by users or endos has to wait for the sensing tech to catch up? It would be almost effortless if we could trust our tech. Not to bash but, while fairly reliable, my family finds the current CGM tech a little frustrating at times. I wonder if this or the complete lack of CGM for some patients trying Afrezza is a partial explanation for low Refills? Compression lows anyone? If you lie on the sensor it tends to think you are lower than you are and alarming. This can be offset by your body blocking the signal to the receiver so it doesn't notice that it is misreading This is before we get to trying to get the thing back on track after it has wandered off... I would bite, although those pulse oximeters have worked for years to supposedly read the oxygen saturation of hemoglobin. Sure their are times the probe has to be readjusted. Especially when the probes were new 30 years ago. A tape like probe wrapped around a finger. I would take a finger probe like the gluco-wise www.gluco-wise.com/
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Post by zuegirdor on Apr 24, 2017 12:26:37 GMT -5
You got it aged...and the bias towards lower readings/trends under about 70...which results in much (unnecessarily) lost sleep!!
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