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Post by ssiegel on May 11, 2017 8:33:46 GMT -5
The 10-Q says: "The Company recognizes revenue based on Afrezza patient prescriptions dispensed as estimated by syndicated data provided by a third party."
They say they have to estimate because they can't estimate returns yet.
Then they say: "For the three months ended March 31, 2017, net revenue from commercial product sales consisted of $1.2 million of net sales of Afrezza dispensed to patients."
Then it describes the adjustments to get net as distribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacks, etc. As best I can tell it doesn't specify a number for these.
Is there any way to establish how much actual cash is arriving at MNKD from afrezza sales?
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Post by therealisaching on May 11, 2017 8:38:30 GMT -5
The 10-Q says: "The Company recognizes revenue based on Afrezza patient prescriptions dispensed as estimated by syndicated data provided by a third party." They say they have to estimate because they can't estimate returns yet. Then they say: "For the three months ended March 31, 2017, net revenue from commercial product sales consisted of $1.2 million of net sales of Afrezza dispensed to patients." Then it describes the adjustments to get net as distribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacksdistribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacks, etc. As best I can tell it doesn't specify a number for these. Is there any way to establish how much actual cash is arriving at MNKD from afrezza sales? The revenue is reported as net of distribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacks |
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Post by ssiegel on May 11, 2017 9:02:25 GMT -5
The 10-Q says: "The Company recognizes revenue based on Afrezza patient prescriptions dispensed as estimated by syndicated data provided by a third party." They say they have to estimate because they can't estimate returns yet. Then they say: "For the three months ended March 31, 2017, net revenue from commercial product sales consisted of $1.2 million of net sales of Afrezza dispensed to patients." Then it describes the adjustments to get net as distribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacksdistribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacks, etc. As best I can tell it doesn't specify a number for these. Is there any way to establish how much actual cash is arriving at MNKD from afrezza sales? The revenue is reported as net of distribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacks Yes, I'm pretty sure that's what I said, but we know neither the actual gross revenue nor the amount of the adjustments. That's why I'm asking whether there's some way to tell how much actual cash came into the company from afrezza sales. |
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Post by matt on May 11, 2017 10:36:00 GMT -5
Unless the company breaks it out for you, the shareholders only get to see net sales and not the detail that goes into it. As for how much cash is brought in sales for Q1 were $1,196 net of all the adjustments, and cost of sales was $2,548, or a negative $1,352. This usually happens due to poor overhead absorption (i.e. fixed manufacturing costs are allocated over too few units), and that situation turns around when unit volumes increase, but like sales adjustments we have to guess which costs are truly fixed (like building depreciation) and which vary with the number of units produced (like packaging materials).
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Post by hammer on May 11, 2017 11:57:23 GMT -5
The problem with quarterly calls is they are a picture of the past. All numbers presented are stale from the end of March. There is zero obligation on managements part to give current data. Guidance itself is always suppressed to avoid the potential for legal problems. Not saying its wrong just saying that is the way it is.
As an example, we still have no clear picture of the UAE potential deal, since there is no hard deal signed. Clearly something is in the works since management has alluded to a deal. the big question now exists is was the shipping quote for a monthly shipment, quarterly or one time deal to be scheduled as needed.
Al Mann was approached many years ago about a single 200mil deal supposedly from the ME. Odd that estimated cost of the shipment is about 1/12 of Al's deal. I agree with many of this board who expressed the glimmer of hope that the shipment may be that which Al spoke of. If so it would place the company profitable overnight and provide the cash runway to serve the US market correctly with staffing and advertising.
More importantly it would bring much needed attention from potential suitors and partners with deep pockets to bring technosphere to the next level. I look forward to the ASM for one reason. I see more pieces fitting together than perhaps in a long time. Although I have been extremely dissapointed with past results I am hopeful knowing that Afrezza is the best mealtime insulin in the world and the only insulin that can take complete advantage of current and future CGM technologies to promote greater time in range.
Jim Croce wrote:"You dont step on Supermans cape, you dont spit into the wind, and you dont pull the mask off the the old lone ranger and you dont mess around with Sanofi"
Just perhaps we have a new Willy McCoy!
To all the Mothers on the Board have a wonderful mothers day weekend!
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Post by agedhippie on May 11, 2017 15:10:45 GMT -5
Al Mann was approached many years ago about a single 200mil deal supposedly from the ME. Odd that estimated cost of the shipment is about 1/12 of Al's deal. I agree with many of this board who expressed the glimmer of hope that the shipment may be that which Al spoke of. If so it would place the company profitable overnight and provide the cash runway to serve the US market correctly with staffing and advertising. Remember that today the price for insulin in the UAE like most of the rest of the world is fixed at around 10% of the price in the US. The $14 million that people are talking about is US price so the UAE price would be $1.4 million. The UAE would be a good way to offload inventory but not a good way to make money. The value is the other thing that makes this unlikely in my view. Mannkind sells around $6 million of Afrezza a year yet we are talking about the UAE which is tiny taking $14 million at US value. That doesn't make sense. |
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Post by sophie on May 11, 2017 15:37:14 GMT -5
It makes sense if there are 700 scripts/ week according to the numbers you provided 300 in US x 2.333 (6 x 2.333= 14 million) 300x 2.3333= 700
Hopefully a country as rich as UAE isn't going to lowball MNKD on price.
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Post by hammer on May 11, 2017 16:08:58 GMT -5
Al Mann was approached many years ago about a single 200mil deal supposedly from the ME. Odd that estimated cost of the shipment is about 1/12 of Al's deal. I agree with many of this board who expressed the glimmer of hope that the shipment may be that which Al spoke of. If so it would place the company profitable overnight and provide the cash runway to serve the US market correctly with staffing and advertising. Remember that today the price for insulin in the UAE like most of the rest of the world is fixed at around 10% of the price in the US. The $14 million that people are talking about is US price so the UAE price would be $1.4 million. The UAE would be a good way to offload inventory but not a good way to make money. The value is the other thing that makes this unlikely in my view. Mannkind sells around $6 million of Afrezza a year yet we are talking about the UAE which is tiny taking $14 million at US value. That doesn't make sense. From what I can tell in my research the cost of insulin in the UAE is closer to about 25% of US retail. This is based upon the cost of the insulin alone and not the cost of consumables such as needles and testing strips or syringes if one uses multi-dose vials instead of flexpens. Consumable pricing appears on par with us pricing. Keep in mind that Afrezza has never been on available in the ME and has distinct advantages in storage versus other insulins. Either way I think the 10% figure is on the low side. Admittedly, I have never lived in UAE but understand the cost of living is approaching the western world and the diabetic numbers are exploding greater than in the western world. Anyway here is a summation from of post taken from an expat site on the internet. If you have no coverage under insurance rough costs are: Novorapid and Levermir - 300-400 AED for a box of 6 pens 108usd Needles - 100 AED for box of 300 27usd Blood sticks (depends on brand) - 50-125AED. 13-34usd This post is from 2015 so I would expect pricing to be higher today |
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Post by scoy on May 11, 2017 19:12:23 GMT -5
The 10-Q says: "The Company recognizes revenue based on Afrezza patient prescriptions dispensed as estimated by syndicated data provided by a third party." They say they have to estimate because they can't estimate returns yet. Then they say: "For the three months ended March 31, 2017, net revenue from commercial product sales consisted of $1.2 million of net sales of Afrezza dispensed to patients." Then it describes the adjustments to get net as distribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacks, etc. As best I can tell it doesn't specify a number for these. Is there any way to establish how much actual cash is arriving at MNKD from afrezza sales? Mannkind has been going it alone for the last three quarters. Their total Afrezza sales are 3.091 million dollars: (1196 + 1322 + 573) The percentage of revenue that has come from Afrezza sales is 2.18%: (1196 + 1322 + 573) / (3009 + 12400 + 126500) That's a piece of trivia that'll surprise some people. |
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Post by agedhippie on May 11, 2017 19:48:40 GMT -5
Remember that today the price for insulin in the UAE like most of the rest of the world is fixed at around 10% of the price in the US. The $14 million that people are talking about is US price so the UAE price would be $1.4 million. The UAE would be a good way to offload inventory but not a good way to make money. The value is the other thing that makes this unlikely in my view. Mannkind sells around $6 million of Afrezza a year yet we are talking about the UAE which is tiny taking $14 million at US value. That doesn't make sense. From what I can tell in my research the cost of insulin in the UAE is closer to about 25% of US retail. This is based upon the cost of the insulin alone and not the cost of consumables such as needles and testing strips or syringes if one uses multi-dose vials instead of flexpens. Consumable pricing appears on par with us pricing. Keep in mind that Afrezza has never been on available in the ME and has distinct advantages in storage versus other insulins. Either way I think the 10% figure is on the low side. Admittedly, I have never lived in UAE but understand the cost of living is approaching the western world and the diabetic numbers are exploding greater than in the western world. Anyway here is a summation from of post taken from an expat site on the internet. If you have no coverage under insurance rough costs are: Novorapid and Levermir - 300-400 AED for a box of 6 pens 108usd Needles - 100 AED for box of 300 27usd Blood sticks (depends on brand) - 50-125AED. 13-34usd This post is from 2015 so I would expect pricing to be higher today Here is the official UAE Ministry September 2016 price list and using today's forex spot price to convert: Line item 261 - 5 x 3mL Humalog pens @ AED 185.78 ( 50.57 USD) to the pharmacy, and AED 231.00 (62.88 USD) to the customer. I stopped a line early before at the 5 x cartridges which were cheaper! |
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Post by me on May 12, 2017 8:11:29 GMT -5
The 10-Q says: "The Company recognizes revenue based on Afrezza patient prescriptions dispensed as estimated by syndicated data provided by a third party." They say they have to estimate because they can't estimate returns yet. Then they say: "For the three months ended March 31, 2017, net revenue from commercial product sales consisted of $1.2 million of net sales of Afrezza dispensed to patients." Then it describes the adjustments to get net as distribution fees, prompt pay discounts, rebates, chargebacks, etc. As best I can tell it doesn't specify a number for these. Is there any way to establish how much actual cash is arriving at MNKD from afrezza sales? Mannkind has been going it alone for the last three quarters. Their total Afrezza sales are 3.091 million dollars: (1196 + 1322 + 573) The percentage of revenue that has come from Afrezza sales is 2.18%: (1196 + 1322 + 573) / (3009 + 12400 + 126500) That's a piece of trivia that'll surprise some people.First, you've transposed your 3Q2016 number...it should be 162,500 (which also reduces the Afrezza sales percentage to 1.74%). Secondly, why should anyone be surprised by this since everyone who follows MNKD knows that there was a recognition of 172,000 in collaboration income from SNY in 2016?! Have you not been following MNKD? |
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