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Buyout
May 10, 2014 18:30:15 GMT -5
Post by biotec on May 10, 2014 18:30:15 GMT -5
For all you math wizz on this forum. And all the money BF is throwing out this year. With a 10Bil buyout what would our PPS be?With the current share count?
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Buyout
May 10, 2014 19:06:33 GMT -5
Post by spiro on May 10, 2014 19:06:33 GMT -5
Biotec, I thought you knew that the minimum bid is $20 billion. $10 billion would only get a BP rights to market Afrezza, while MNKD keeps production of Afrezza. It seems that you don't understand or want to accept the potential value of MNKD's pipeline. Hopefully, we will get a few hints next week about how things are progressing.
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Buyout
May 11, 2014 6:24:42 GMT -5
Post by ashiwi on May 11, 2014 6:24:42 GMT -5
Without using a calculator, a10 billion dollar buy out would be approximately equate to a $24 stock price.
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Buyout
May 11, 2014 14:45:59 GMT -5
Post by biotec on May 11, 2014 14:45:59 GMT -5
It would be nice to get some partnership info tomorrow, Fingers crossed.
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May 12, 2014 14:44:17 GMT -5
Post by harshal1981 on May 12, 2014 14:44:17 GMT -5
my calculations says $16bn takeover price. and Al would rather divest then continue. Lets see how close/far I am from the real number.
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Buyout
May 12, 2014 14:51:54 GMT -5
Post by babaoriley on May 12, 2014 14:51:54 GMT -5
harshal, would that be $48 billion or just $16 billion? LOL! Hey, check out the new thread featuring Sierra - what a pile of dung that is!
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Buyout
May 13, 2014 7:27:04 GMT -5
Post by harshal1981 on May 13, 2014 7:27:04 GMT -5
I don't even pay attention to that Sierra crap. They were all over on YMB as well, now they are here trying to sell their crap. All though I believe in $16bn number strongly based on my analysis and calculation that was ground up starting from epidemiological data and assumptions on afrezza penetration. Lets see how it goes. We will know by August for sure.
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Buyout
May 15, 2014 0:36:05 GMT -5
Post by seanismorris on May 15, 2014 0:36:05 GMT -5
Is that 16B for the US or global, with regards to market penetration?
Keep in mind Mannkind has said the US isn't in the top 10 with regards to the diabetes problem. And, Al has stated he believes that Afrezza is a 30B opportunity. Al is going to determine the price at which Mannkind could be sold and I think, he thinks, your number is way to low.
I suppose it's possible that he could sell Afrezza for 16B because he wants to develop Technosphere opportunities further and needs the cash to do so (Mannkind keeps the inhaler and Technosphere patents, but licenses them) If I remember correctly, Mannkind has said the opportunities in pain could exceed that of Afrezza. Mannkind also has some very interesting cancer opportunities (currently on hold) unrelated to Technosphere...
I don't think Mannkind is up for sale. Partnerships make a lot more sense because of the disconnect between the market and how Mann values the company. Also, the risks for a partner is much less than a buyer if Afrezza doesn't turn out to be success. (10-15 times more risk for someone to buy the company).
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Buyout
May 15, 2014 2:33:24 GMT -5
Post by alcc on May 15, 2014 2:33:24 GMT -5
Imo the partnership deal might well include the BP taking say a 20% equity position at a $8-10B valuation, plus a takeout provision with valuation at say 8-10x trailing revenue.
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Post by rak5555 on May 15, 2014 8:09:27 GMT -5
The permutations on partnership structures are infinite. The one thing we know for certain is mnkd needs a cash infusion - a large one. They need working capital, infrastructure buildout, and factory capacity. My favorite structure is for mnkd to sell the rights to afrezza (15 - 20 billion), retain exclusive manufacturing (cost plus 20%), and start licensing technosphere for other new applications. This structure limits the amount of interaction between Al and the partner, which reduces potential for conflict and keeps Al free to guide mnkd's technosphere.
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Buyout
May 15, 2014 8:28:48 GMT -5
Post by babaoriley on May 15, 2014 8:28:48 GMT -5
rak, you've described Nirvana.
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May 15, 2014 10:32:30 GMT -5
Post by savzak on May 15, 2014 10:32:30 GMT -5
rak, assuming that scenario, what do you see the company doing with all that cash after paying off any and all debt? Would you foresee a massive special dividend to shareholders after reserving enough for operations?
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Buyout
May 15, 2014 21:38:24 GMT -5
Post by rak5555 on May 15, 2014 21:38:24 GMT -5
savzak - what a great question. Even after they pay off debt, and build out capacity, and stockpile cash for trials for new technosphere applications, and God only knows what Al has up his sleeve, there would still be some left over. A special dividend or share repurchase would be nice. If Al were younger, I would envision strategic acquisitions.
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