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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 1, 2017 7:31:33 GMT -5
Current Population: 211M Metro Population:86% Rural Population: 14% Unemployment Rate: 13.5% Employment Rate: 53% Interest Rate: 10.25% T1 Population:0.5-1.0% T2 Population:9.4% (10.4-1.0 T1) 2014 per capita household income: 4200 (USD) adjusted to 2017: 7815 (USD) Current Tax rate: 0% - 27% (progressive) Health Care System: universal and free for everyone Drug Care System:  Drug Costs compared to US: 50% ( needs more research)https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-drug-prices/ Calculations to follow. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Jun 1, 2017 8:05:41 GMT -5
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 1, 2017 14:25:16 GMT -5
Using above data (sorry had to log off)
calcs based on family of 4(2+2)
BRZ Monthly Income: 1,856.11 * 2 = 3712 R$
BRZ Rent (3 Bed): 2650 x 85% + 1813 x 15% = 2524 R$
Net remaining: 1188 R$
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US cost of Month: $450 (1.5 boxes)
BRZ Cost of Month: $225 (est 50 % of US price) = 725 R$
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Considering that more than half of the population is below the average income level i suggest that the potential market might be 10-20% of the full market possibility.
T1 = 211M x 0.01 x .20 = 422k
T2 = 211M x 0.094 x .20 = 3.9M
Total 4.32M
for each 1% of the market share (T1 + T2):
43000 x 725R$ x 25% (profit) x 12 (months) = 93.5M R$ x .307 = 28.7M US$
Get 4% of Brazilian Market and MNKD is profitable (assuming $8M US month burn rate stays level)
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 1, 2017 14:32:42 GMT -5
So you're saying that either they can eat or use Afrezza? Sounds like either way they die. So how do those Brazilian women find so much energy to dance? WoooHooooo Maybe a sugar rush? |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jun 1, 2017 14:47:53 GMT -5
Yup, that is what I am saying.
Suggesting that 10-20 percent of the country's population might be able to afford a 50% discounted product.
I think when I did the MNKD Rest of World calculation I surmised that 10% of the worlds population could actually afford Afrezza at $2600 USD annually.
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Post by op2778 on Jun 1, 2017 14:52:46 GMT -5
LOL, i love ppl living in healthy country.
For your information, i live in Venezuela.
Monthly Income is less than $10 right now (70% of country)
A lot of people is starving and literally eat from trash bins. Neverthless, i can assure women have a lot of sex, u can see a lot of pregnancy and they don´t care if they don´t have what to eat.....
Can they afford drugs? No way, but they dance, have sex and so on....
Op
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Post by peppy on Jun 1, 2017 14:54:29 GMT -5
So you're saying that either they can eat or use Afrezza? Sounds like either way they die. So how do those Brazilian women find so much energy to dance?
WoooHooooo Maybe a sugar rush? they are poor. they are not dead. dancing is fun and cheap. I am dancing right now.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 1, 2017 14:58:01 GMT -5
Stop ... Stop ... let's hold the line at dance. No more "and so on" ... Ha!
OH NO ... not that #nasty women again ...
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Post by matt on Jun 1, 2017 15:23:34 GMT -5
Brazil's healthcare system is a real mix. Some of the public funding is federal, most public funding is from the state, and 60% is still private pay. The private insurance covers mostly wealthy people that can afford it. As for states, those who live in Sao Paulo tend to get good care while those in rural areas get almost nothing. Meanwhile Rio de Janeiro declared a state of emergency during the Olympic games because they could not supply basic city services. Imagine the difference in life style between a poor rural coal mining town in West Virginia and a costal suburb in California like Newport Beach or Malibu. If you have never visited there, Newport Beach may be the only place on the planet with more high-end German cars than Stuttgart.
In general, it is dangerous to say anything about Brazil in general. On one side of the street you can see nice new apartment blocks, surrounded by high wall and armed private security, and on the other side a shanty town with lean-to structures fabricated out of scraps of corrugated aluminum. That is not the exception in large cities; it is very common. The people in the private apartments can get Afrezza if they want it, the other people will not have access to it or many other medicines despite official policy to the contrary.
Will this new deal provide some sales? Almost certainly it will. Will Afrezza be available to millions and millions of diabetics on the government reimbursement schedule? To some yes, to most no. I agree with those who estimate that the drug will sell with an official price of about 25% of the US price as that is a pretty common discount for Brazil. Other chronic therapies, like hemodialysis for example, cost $20,000 to $25,000 a year in Brazil while full reimbursement in the US is $80,000 and in Germany it is closer to $100,000. There is money to be made in Central and South America, but not as much as a cursory glance at the population statistics would suggest. The real opportunities continues to be the US, EU, and Japan, in that order, and that is where the marketing focus should remain.
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 1, 2017 15:27:10 GMT -5
---------------------------------------- US cost of Month: $450 (1.5 boxes) BRZ Cost of Month: $225 (est 50 % of US price) = 725 R$ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Considering that more than half of the population is below the average income level i suggest that the potential market might be 10-20% of the full market possibility. T1 = 211M x 0.01 x .20 = 422k T2 = 211M x 0.094 x .20 = 3.9M Total 4.32M for each 1% of the market share (T1 + T2): 43000 x 725R$ x 25% (profit) x 12 (months) = 93.5M R$ x .307 = 28.7M US$ You may need to revisit the Brazilian price. There was some data posted by mnholden that had the Brazilian price for Humalog at $2.57 per mL. A box and a half of Afrezza would (assuming 8u cartridges) be 8 x (90 x 1.5) 1,080u which is 10.8 mL. That gives a price of $27.76 for this quantity of Humalog. I don't see selling the same quantity of Afrezza for $225 as supportable. (But please check my maths as I sometimes screw up). |
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Post by mikesmilitaria on Jun 1, 2017 15:34:37 GMT -5
Biomm SA, formerly Savicevic Participacoes SA, is a Brazil-based company primarily engaged in the biotechnology industry. The Company is principally engaged in the development and licensing of technology for the production of human insulin and other recombinant proteins. The Company’s technology is suitable for the production of therapeutic proteins, which are used in the production of drugs and biopharmaceuticals. The Company’s technology for insulin production is protected by patents in various countries in Europe, Asia, North and South America. In addition, it is active in the development of production process of enzymes that are used in the hydrolysis of biomass and in the manufacture of bio-fuel. As of December 31, 2011, the Company’s subsidiaries were Biomm International Inc, Biomm Middle East Inc and Biomm Russia Ltd.
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