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Post by morfu on May 19, 2014 6:00:41 GMT -5
Hi again,
This post I wrote two days ago and 4balance suggested to make it a thread on its own..
I am very curious if there are more reasonable/real estimates out there..
for example on the potential no of users in the first year, the possible impact of Technosphere on the pain market...
Cheers,
Morfu
Post by morfu on May 17, 2014 at 7:56am
Hello there (my first post here, hope I am doing it right)!
I have a question about the expected share price...
First I would invite comments about this estimate:
Assuming
- a price of 2000$ per user per year
- 30% of that as eps
- about 400mil shares
- a factor of 20 between eps and stock price
my estimate is:
- 0.15$ eps and a share price of 3$ if there are 100k users per year
or (easier math):
- 600$ eps and a share price of 12000$ if there would be 400mil users ;P
(or any value in between depending on the number of users)
Can someone comment, how other factors might affect the short term stock price development?
- pain medication use of Techosphere
- short squeeze
- tax exemptions
- institutional interest in the stock
- ...
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Post by rak5555 on May 19, 2014 8:16:43 GMT -5
Morfu - I can only speak for myself, but I find it very difficult to focus on traditional share value drivers like Revenue growth and profit margin when the entire future is dependent on FDA decision and quality of partnership. The partner possibilities range from a sales commission structure w/ ACME Drug Sales inc to a complete buyout by Merk. If the label sucks and the FDA requires piles of trials, we're screwed. Trust me there will be a plethora of models available for you to discuss/analyze once these two variables are resolved.
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Post by brentie on May 19, 2014 9:15:14 GMT -5
Rak, just that trial on children 4 years and up has got to be an expensive one. How difficult is it going to be to get 500 kids to sign up, qualify, and stick with it the entire length of the trial? And that's not even figuring in how many extra you'll have to enroll to compensate for that drop-out. "MannKind and the FDA have also discussed the basis for obtaining a waiver and deferral for pediatric studies. MannKind agreed to conduct a Phase 4 study of AFREZZA in 500 pediatric patients at least four years of age." www.news.mannkindcorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=147953&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1373077&highlight= |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on May 19, 2014 10:08:01 GMT -5
Rak, just that trial on children 4 years and up has got to be an expensive one. How difficult is it going to be to get 500 kids to sign up, qualify, and stick with it the entire length of the trial? And that's not even figuring in how many extra you'll have to enroll to compensate for that drop-out. "MannKind and the FDA have also discussed the basis for obtaining a waiver and deferral for pediatric studies. MannKind agreed to conduct a Phase 4 study of AFREZZA in 500 pediatric patients at least four years of age." www.news.mannkindcorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=147953&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1373077&highlight=Expensive yes. Cost picked up by partner(s). Most likely. Compliance. Might not be all that bad figuring that if a concerned parent(s) understand that this could be a serious improvement to their child's health that they will make sure that child adheres to the program which would be easier than just one person with a busy life. I could be wrong but it might work out better than adult trials. |
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Post by jpg on May 19, 2014 12:23:19 GMT -5
morfu,
Post approval you say the company is worth between 3$ a share and 12000$ a share right?
Who can argue with that? You certainly left a margin of safety in your estimates!
JPG
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Post by 4Balance on May 19, 2014 15:41:44 GMT -5
I agree, a parent could have a sizable interest in using Afrezza as an alternate to injections. Parents like to shield their kids from pain. AND they might have had experience, themselves, with the outcome of poorly managed diabetes.
Last week we reconnected with family members. All 3 adults have diabetes, and the 14-mo-old is too young to be tested. But the 3 generations before her are either T1 or T2. The T2s we met last week both suffer from neuropathy in their feet--presumably due to poorly controlled diabetes.
2 of the 3 adults smoke...so I'm not sure if their doctors would approve Afrezza. But all are interested in the FDA's decision.
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Post by morfu on May 19, 2014 16:16:02 GMT -5
Morfu - I can only speak for myself, but I find it very difficult to focus on traditional share value drivers like Revenue growth and profit margin when the entire future is dependent on FDA decision and quality of partnership. The partner possibilities range from a sales commission structure w/ ACME Drug Sales inc to a complete buyout by Merk. If the label sucks and the FDA requires piles of trials, we're screwed. Trust me there will be a plethora of models available for you to discuss/analyze once these two variables are resolved. Dear rak5555, well I think we can put a price tag on this (in guesstimate land).. The last two studies cost about 100mil$ and took about 2 years, so I would guess that the cost per year wont get much higher than that, lets say 100mil per year.., that tranlates (with the numbers from my preious post) that the income from about 300k users will have to pay for that for the next years or in other words my estimate has gotten an offset now. Cheers, Morfu |
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Post by biotec on May 19, 2014 17:42:42 GMT -5
Stock value? .10 cent or $125.00 Thats how biotechs work.The outstanding shares, FDA approval,partnership. Thats what speculation stocks are all about.And yes MNKD is still a speculation stock.So Mufru, Invest what you can afford to lose.Dont buy on margin, Dont cash out refinance your house to invest in MNKD.Yes it looks good, But dont bet the farm.
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Post by babaoriley on May 19, 2014 18:02:07 GMT -5
I agree, a parent could have a sizable interest in using Afrezza as an alternate to injections. Parents like to shield their kids from pain. AND they might have had experience, themselves, with the outcome of poorly managed diabetes. Last week we reconnected with family members. All 3 adults have diabetes, and the 14-mo-old is too young to be tested. But the 3 generations before her are either T1 or T2. The T2s we met last week both suffer from neuropathy in their feet--presumably due to poorly controlled diabetes. 2 of the 3 adults smoke...so I'm not sure if their doctors would approve Afrezza. But all are interested in the FDA's decision. Here's the thing about kids. As soon as the "C" word comes up, no matter how attenuated, parents will be cautious. Now, some kids will eventually use Afrezza, and when that happens, mom and dad will be under pressure to give in cuz their kid will hear other kids using this cool device. If I were a parent, I would tell them, kind of like their first car, you can have Afrezza when you turn, for example, five years plus the age they are now, cuz at that point, if there is no further reason to worry, then I'd say okay. Don't forget, you start a kid at 9 years old, that's a long, long, time of using this stuff, and, waiting a bit, well it seems as though that might be the most prudent, if overly protective, way to go. Just between me and the rest of you guys, I'd be okay with a buyout in a couple of years. We would do extremely well, and let BP shoulder whatever risks may be out there that cannot be completely evaluated currently. Spiro, don't come over the internet at me!!! Great price action lately!! |
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