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Post by casualinvestor on Jun 23, 2017 13:41:27 GMT -5
The week-over-week increase in script NRx this week is nothing short of stellar, assuming it isn't an artifact of ordering patterns. Which I think is the reason why the PPS is not rising so much. People are cautious to buy after the nice increase for week 5/12, followed by a 3-week drop in scripts. They are wondering if the same thing will happen.
The increase of NRx by 80 (55%) shows that substantial new sales traction is actually happening. As I understand Afrezza sales, when the titration packs are the right size a person gets a 1-month NRx and 2 months of refills (Rx). Then they have to go back and get another NRx.
I don't sneeze at a 5% increases in PPS on moderately good news
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 23, 2017 13:48:30 GMT -5
It's good to wait until the inflection point to announce what will give us the runway:-) Good to know they've been breaking the law and not revealing material financial developments in order to have a dramatic reveal. Two thumbs up to management for realizing the old rules are too boring. Sadly, I hope you're right that they have a "done deal" that they've been hiding. If we're getting this close to the cliff without ink on paper, they are in a very, very precarious situation. I once allowed myself to get in the latter situation... and guess what, the deal changed dramatically when I had no time but to accept changes. Even if they were waiting for this inflection point to try to get a better deal, they would be playing a risky game because in this short term game cash usually trumps potential... unless they've got multiple sources of funding competing for MNKD's business, and if that were true I think we would have already seen much more aggressive share price increase.
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Post by casualinvestor on Jun 23, 2017 13:51:28 GMT -5
The point is that a significant increase in script sales (3x) means the cash burn rate will be offset by higher revenue. Doing the math in my head (and not accounting for variable/fixed costs), a 3x increase in sales is about $1 million/month, off of a $7.x million/month burn.
Do you have any basis for thinking the PPS will stay near $3? Is there some metric you're looking at? I'd guess +200% sales growth in a couple months would take the PPS much higher. But I'm just guessing
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Post by ilovekauai on Jun 23, 2017 13:54:50 GMT -5
Still incredible that over 3M shares traded today and we only bump up .07 on this news. It's frustrating to witness & just goes to show how much the shorts are still calling the shots here. However, their day of reckoning is coming and I for one look forward to a let's say, a late summer timeframe, short-rib BBQ!!
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 23, 2017 14:13:26 GMT -5
Late summer? It's still June ...
Shorts can play all they want ... there are only a few shares floating around out there and their days are numbered. Better for them to just give up ... sit down and enjoy a plate of ribs ... and have a cold Longboard.
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Post by matt on Jun 23, 2017 14:27:35 GMT -5
The point is that a significant increase in script sales (3x) means the cash burn rate will be offset by higher revenue. Doing the math in my head (and not accounting for varialbe/fixed costs), a 3x increase in sales is about $1 million/month, off of a $7.x million/month burn. Do you have any basis for thinking the PPS will stay near $3? Is there some metric you're looking at? I'd guess +200% sales growth in a couple months would take the PPS much higher. But I'm just guessing The key metrics are that sales is increasing at one rate, and the remaining cash on the balance sheet is declining at another (steeper) rate. So long as sales increase more slowly than the rate of decline in cash, the company must borrow more debt or dilute existing shareholders to remain in business. Ultimately, that is the math the drives the share price and it is what any company looking to acquire assets will look at. It is really hard to look at a single line like sales and decree that a change in sales will increase the PPS if you don't know what is happening to the right side of the balance sheet. Increasing sales should, logically, increase the share price if all else were equal, but all else is not equal if the company is not in a position to be self-supporting. If the next round of financing goes out at a 30% discount to today's price, that is about $1.12. That would undo a lot of positive sales traction which is why getting to cash flow break-even is such a big deal.
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Post by ilovekauai on Jun 23, 2017 14:29:46 GMT -5
They'll just naked short if there aren't enough shares around. That's been the short MO for quite awhile as I'm sure you know, but it's all going to end eventually. Can't wait...
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Post by kbrion77 on Jun 23, 2017 14:57:59 GMT -5
The point is that a significant increase in script sales (3x) means the cash burn rate will be offset by higher revenue. Doing the math in my head (and not accounting for variable/fixed costs), a 3x increase in sales is about $1 million/month, off of a $7.x million/month burn. Do you have any basis for thinking the PPS will stay near $3? Is there some metric you're looking at? I'd guess +200% sales growth in a couple months would take the PPS much higher. But I'm just guessing In my eyes it's pretty simple. The company needs non-dilutive cash of $40M ASAP. Like Matt said any type of dilution would be at a steep discount and crush the share price back down. Could a foreign Afrezza shipment + company (techno) asset sale + licensing agreement for Epi = $40M, I literally have no idea but if that happened along with US sales traction, label change in September, Pedi trial traction and Mike saying we expect to announce Afrezza foreign deals every year that could get the share price to $3-$4.
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Post by ilovekauai on Jun 23, 2017 15:10:15 GMT -5
Wow, we jump from 3.4M to over 7M shares traded in the last 10 minutes and close RED?!!! Just incredible to witness. Such blatant manipulation of this stock and they get away with it every single time. Naked shorting? I think so. So disgusting. Have a nice weekend all. Maybe Monday will be a better day and hopefully a better week too. Aloha.
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Post by novafett on Jun 23, 2017 15:20:23 GMT -5
Amazing.. exciting start of the day, saw it up 11c at one point. Came back at the end of the day to see it down. SMH.
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Post by compound26 on Jun 23, 2017 15:23:09 GMT -5
Amazing.. exciting start of the day, saw it up 11c at one point. Came back at the end of the day to see it down. SMH. At one point the PPS was up 21 cents. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png)
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Post by mango on Jun 23, 2017 15:31:14 GMT -5
Wow, we jump from 3.4M to over 7M shares traded in the last 10 minutes and close RED?!!! Just incredible to witness. Such blatant manipulation of this stock and they get away with it every single time. Naked shorting? I think so. So disgusting. Have a nice weekend all. Maybe Monday will be a better day and hopefully a better week too. Aloha. After reading the two previous short selling schemes that involved MannKind, I would most definitely say illegal price manipulation is happening. A lot of the naked shorting can be artificially "masked," though some of it is bound to fall through the cracks. and was the case previously—increased prevalence of hard to borrow shares and failures to deliver and utilizing strategic options plays. 23 days on the Reg Sho list now. MannKind has an FDA approved insulin that has a safer profile than any other diabetes med or insulin. MannKind has never received an FDA warning letter. MannKind has never been guilty of paying off doctors or researchers etc. MannKind has never been guilty of fraud or conducting illegal kickback schemes. The competition has been guilty of all those things, and have all been consistent with staying in the spotlight of the Law, and several are also having layoffs. Does the market react accordingly to their consistent bad news? Things aren't parallel. The SEC has has been exposing corruption consistently now for a while, something new just came out yesterday in fact. My guess is that this time around the scheme involves some pretty big players and an elaborately orchestrated scheme that reflects the deep pockets of those involved. Guess a guess since I can't exactly prove anything but then again it's not my job to that's what the Dept of Justice and SEC is for.
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Post by jred on Jun 23, 2017 15:33:51 GMT -5
It's a difficult day to judge the market's reaction to news with the Russell rebalancing occurring. According to the Russell Reconstitution website, MNKD was being deleted from the 3000 Index. This would explain the 10 million shares traded and imo the downward pressure on the stock price. The true reaction will become clearer over the course of next week.
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Post by obamayoumama on Jun 23, 2017 15:36:28 GMT -5
Wow, we jump from 3.4M to over 7M shares traded in the last 10 minutes and close RED?!!! Just incredible to witness. Such blatant manipulation of this stock and they get away with it every single time. Naked shorting? I think so. So disgusting. Have a nice weekend all. Maybe Monday will be a better day and hopefully a better week too. Aloha. I believe this is from the Russell Index rebalance.
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Post by factspls88 on Jun 23, 2017 15:47:47 GMT -5
All I can say is "WTF?" I leave the computer with the stock up $.07/.08 and up come back after the market close to -$.02. Saw it up $.20 earlier today but didn't expect that to hold. Figured +$.07 would've been around where we'd close. Sigh.
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