MannKind (MNKD) at Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference

[slushy]

Article Link: seekingalpha.com/article/2249603-mannkind-mnkd-at-jefferies-global-healthcare-conference-transcript?app=1

Pretty good summation by Matt if you want to read it all, but I'm assuming most of you are familiar with the positives of Afrezza and the current state of the diabetes market. The part that I find interesting is on page 6, Matt says the following:

"We didn’t fully build it out because it's quite expensive to do so pre-approval, but the facility is scaled to do up to two billion cartridges per year fully built out and by that, we're really talking about filing the rooms with the equipment that they are sitting there waiting to have installed. So the primary bottleneck facility has mostly the fill finish machines. You can probably imaging two billion cartridges is a lot of cartridges and you need a lot of equipment to fill those, almost no matter how fast you do it. At launch, we expect to have three of those finish lines in place, which should give us a $375 million per year capacity, that's a quarter of the total capacity of the facility to some of the layer once it have a little higher than if you are doing the math and it doesn’t quite work." (bolding was done by me)

To me this should give us insight into how much Afrezza is going to cost, but the math looks very wrong to me...

2B Cartridges / 4 (since we're at quarter capacity) = 500MM Cartridges per year. 500MM Cartridges per year at a total revenue of $375MM means each cartridge is costing $.75... am I missing something? That seems incredibly cheap

[ezrasfund]

I think Matt may have misspoken. I seem to remember a $2B/year capacity when fully built out.

[brentie]

Jun 2, 2014 19:48:21 GMT -5 ezrasfund said:

I think Matt may have misspoken. I seem to remember a $2B/year capacity when fully built out.

If you look at slide 26, it does say 2 billion cartridges.


afresa.blogspot.com/

[savzak]

Slushy, I don't think he said $375M dollars. I think he said 375M CARTRIDGES. He went on to explain that he knows the math isn't quite right but urged the audience to trust him...the facility can do 2B cartridges at full capacity.

[savzak]

Jun 2, 2014 20:30:33 GMT -5 savzak said:

Slushy, I don't think he said $375M dollars. I think he said 375M CARTRIDGES. He went on to explain that he knows the math isn't quite right but urged the audience to trust him...the facility can do 2B cartridges at full capacity.

This is the quote from the transcript. I think the $ sign in front of 375 is a mistake. I think he was referring to the current capacity to produce cartridges.

At launch, we expect to have three of those finish lines in place, which should give us a $375 million per year capacity, that's a quarter of the total capacity of the facility to some of the layer once it have a little higher than if you are doing the math and it doesn’t quite work.

You have to trust me on this, but it can go up to two billion cartridges a year at full capacity and we can add the capacity in a very nice relatively rapid modular way, which is one of the advantages of having built this very nice expensive facility with all the clean rooms and things in place, just waiting to drop the machines in.

Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/838/transcript-jefferies-global-healthcare-presentation#ixzz33XMYqwmj

[ashiwi]

The gross revenue is just over $2/ cartridge. So with 375 million cartridges it's about 800 million $ in revenue.
4 billion cartridges will produce over 8 billion $ in Revenue.
Very impressive. If and when there is a need for more ( a good problem) expansion possibly a European factory would be in order.
The future looks bright for MNKD.

[spiro]

It's about time the discussion has moved to revenues. BTW, MNKD is going to need to produce a lot more than 375 million cartridges, very soon after launch. They will need to add at least 2 new plants, within 2 years of launch. LOL,  I am being very cautious with my numbers here. 

[Deleted]

Hey Spiro- aren't you the one worried about being exiled to Siberia?

Speaking of Siberia, did you watch "The World Wars" on the history channel?  Did you know Stallin was exiled to Siberia work camps 6 times and escaped all 6 times?

If you like history, you have to watch that series.  I never knew Churchill was defeated in a re-election before WWII was completely over.  It was over in Europe, but not for the USA.

[spiro]

Purge, I am still buying and counting chickens, but I still accept the fact that the FDA still hasn't taken Siberia out of play yet. 

Spiro

[ashiwi]

It's Spiro that will be sent to Siberia if the $hit hits the fan.
My wife will just kill me (only kidding) I'll just have to work the day job forever.
But my confidence level has never been higher. I see early retirement on the horizon.

[ezrasfund]

Not to change the subject, but...with all the big numbers in finance these days it's hard to remember just how big a billion is.

Back of the envelope, 2 billion cartridges/year would be "about" 63 cartridges/sec...if the factory ran 24/7/365 without any interruption. There are only 31.5 Million seconds in a year. Those must be some pretty incredible fill machines, as even Al was impressed. 12 fill lines would be putting out at least 5 cartridges/second if they ran non-stop.

Makes me think of Lucy in the chocolate factory.