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Post by kc on Jun 8, 2014 11:15:16 GMT -5
Chris, I like your comments. I would like to explore the heavy volume all week ending on Thursday with Friday being very low volume. What do you make of that? I think that the shorts got their DRUG being about 1.25 a share and left for another day to move or shift the price again. Several days of heavy profits on 30,000,000 shares get the shorts ready for the next bull run cycle. This is the Wall Street game of the hedge funds. They found and tasted the blood of money and will do it over and over again. They are not investors but day or week trippers. They get it right more times than not. In and out for the fast buck.
Chris said: 2) I could definitely see MNKD up over it's current price right now (10.28 PPS) although volume is going down in comparison to the price change. Indicating a tug of war between buyers and sellers after such a strong surge upwards. Monday and Tuesday will be interesting to note pay attention to the green or red closing. A nice breather at this point is great for another run-up for the stock however it could very well be under 10 in the near future too, but MNKD has held up nicely over 10 despite take downs.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2014 13:18:54 GMT -5
First off Hello Board. This is my first post here. That insider sale 2 days ago destroyed me. I was doing great and every time it was rising, I was purchasing more shares assuming we would get to $12-$15. It rose to 11 and I purchased over 5000 shares and all I noticed was a decline below 10. I didn't know what to do and I panicked, and naturally took my huge loss and got out. What are your thoughts on the coming weeks ahead? Its trading right now at $10.30 and AH has come up only 2 cents on the share. Do we see it go back up? Are there any more planned insider sales that will take this down further? Do we expect more to take their losses and come out and drive the price down further? Any thoughts will be appreciated. The stock goes up almost parabolically and then goes down 5% and this is destroying you? For the little it is worth: I think you should simply invest in another asset class then biotechnology... JPG Im not sure you know what a Parabola is if you think its like a parabolic graph. This hit 11+ and almost came down to 9.60. For those of us who came in upper 10s my friend, this is a downfall not a parabola. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2014 13:24:50 GMT -5
First off Hello Board. This is my first post here. That insider sale 2 days ago destroyed me. I was doing great and every time it was rising, I was purchasing more shares assuming we would get to $12-$15. It rose to 11 and I purchased over 5000 shares and all I noticed was a decline below 10. I didn't know what to do and I panicked, and naturally took my huge loss and got out. What are your thoughts on the coming weeks ahead? Its trading right now at $10.30 and AH has come up only 2 cents on the share. Do we see it go back up? Are there any more planned insider sales that will take this down further? Do we expect more to take their losses and come out and drive the price down further? Any thoughts will be appreciated. Hello Mankind, Welcome to the board; let me be the 1st to answer all your questions. I'm not a licensed professional and my opinions should not be taken as investment advice. I've been a MNKD long for 3-4 years now and I've seen MNKD go as low as 1.5~ pps. Mannkind is a biotech stock therefore it has a high beta meaning it's highly volatile in relation to the rest of the market. At this point MNKD sits close to a 4B market capitalization with Afrezza still not approved. Everything is speculation at this point with more investors believing Afrezza will obtain approval and perhaps a subsequent buy-out or partnership will occur and Afrezza will be commercially successful. As with most bio stocks closing in on their approval decision date - a run-up takes place. 1) I believe MNKD will continue to be tested on both sides to break over 11 and break under 10. Plenty of time to go both ways right now before July 15th (decision date). MNKD recently was around 4~ before the Adcom despite seeing 8 before -- than retraced and broke over 8 soon after a positive preliminary vote by the panel. Be prepared for up, down and sideways action. Things turn on a whim with binary events occurring and on the horizon for biotech stocks. 2) I could definitely see MNKD up over it's current price right now (10.28 PPS) although volume is going down in comparison to the price change. Indicating a tug of war between buyers and sellers after such a strong surge upwards. Monday and Tuesday will be interesting to note pay attention to the green or red closing. A nice breather at this point is great for another run-up for the stock however it could very well be under 10 in the near future too, but MNKD has held up nicely over 10 despite take downs. 3) More than likely there will be more preplanned stock sales by MGMT that will be spun negatively by authors and commenters a-like. There always is. When Mann purchases shares of a swap it's also spun an insider buying. Such is the game of investing. When a stock price goes up or down significantly, people ask and search for reasons why. This is why you see so many authors capitalizing on high volume days when investors are at a frenzy and publishing articles. Other times the articles themselves influence investors too. 4) I would be speculating at this point but I feel more people are up than down on this board. As for those that entered MNKD before 2010 and held, perhaps they are selling a portion to off set loses assuming they haven't taken the time to average down on ashamed and held longterm. Although, realistically, both longterm and short term investors could just be selling a portion of their current shares to mitigate risk as well. There are many reasons and variables to consider for this question. One could only assume, however very rarely do people's investment thesis, situation and strategy align with 100% with others; everyone is unique and have a different tolerance level, target price, share count and average price. Cheers, Chris typed on my iphone excuse any grammatical mistakes. Hello Chris, Thank You for your detailed layout for MNKD. I have been following MNKD for about 3 months now, and Finally decided to come into it a bit late. I purchased it at 10.80 and when I noticed it went over 11 and assumed blue skies, I purchased more at 11. Then It went down to 9s and I panicked and sold out my shares. Now that it has resettled and I took a big hit, Im trying to decide on whether I should come back in now or wait tip it goes below 10 again. I don't see it coming back down again, but I am inclined to rejoin this venture with you guys and give it another try. Any opinions on whats a good point to get back in on this? The chart doesn't indicate to me that it will go down further, unless more inside sales occur again.... |
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Post by savzak on Jun 8, 2014 13:37:53 GMT -5
ManKind, my simple suggestion is this; if you believe in the long term success of the company, then figure out what amount you are willing to invest even while acknowledging you may lose every penny. Then invest that amount at market and let it ride. Of course, reevaluate as future developments necessitate.
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Post by Chris on Jun 8, 2014 14:40:35 GMT -5
Chris, I like your comments. I would like to explore the heavy volume all week ending on Thursday with Friday being very low volume. What do you make of that? I think that the shorts got their DRUG being about 1.25 a share and left for another day to move or shift the price again. Several days of heavy profits on 30,000,000 shares get the shorts ready for the next bull run cycle. This is the Wall Street game of the hedge funds. They found and tasted the blood of money and will do it over and over again. They are not investors but day or week trippers. They get it right more times than not. In and out for the fast buck. Chris said: 2) I could definitely see MNKD up over it's current price right now (10.28 PPS) although volume is going down in comparison to the price change. Indicating a tug of war between buyers and sellers after such a strong surge upwards. Monday and Tuesday will be interesting to note pay attention to the green or red closing. A nice breather at this point is great for another run-up for the stock however it could very well be under 10 in the near future too, but MNKD has held up nicely over 10 despite take downs. KC, thank you for your kind words. To answer you question simply I pulled up quickly a basic app from my phone, which may not be entirely accurate but close enough: June 5 MNKD opens at around 10.94 only to close around 10.03 June 6 MNKD opens at around 10.05 to close at 10.28 .02 between 5th and 6th opening 10.94 - 10.28 = .66 difference June 5 saw a higher opening than closing June 6 saw a higher closing than opening Currently IMO, this shows the market (investors) are gauging and attempting to value (price-in) MNKD as it soars to new 52-week highs to establish if MNKD is still a bargain at these prices or if it's overvalued. Alongside resistance points technically that haven't been tested in years putting outstanding share count aside - investors are "on edge" on both sides of the party. I need at least another day or two to interpret what I'm seeing surface wise. I have no current desktop. All I have is my dinky little phone and limited time everyday as I'm working on a yacht to set sail off from Florida to the North (Labrador, Greenland and Iceland) and we're already behind schedule and weather conditions won't be in our favor for much longer. I hope this light review helps you and if I have the chance to look at the price action, volume and the like I will message you. Attachment Deleted |
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Post by Chris on Jun 8, 2014 14:53:05 GMT -5
ManKind, no worries and thank you for being part of the community!
I'm not a licensed professional but would like to ask you a couple questions before attempting to give you advice. Mind you, I'm long MNKD.
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How aggressive would you like to be and what would you consider being conservative (please give me examples)?
What is your expected price target for MNKD - now cut that by 20%, 40% and 60% does MNKD still look attractive to you?
Are you well diversified in other equities?
What is your expected timeline?
You seem to be familiar with the possible catalytic events and binary milestones, but have you made a decision tree or blue-print plan so you have a route irregardless if we move up, down or sideways?
Will you have the tenacity and emotional stability to follow your plans? For example, my original plan was to sell close to 20-40 percent prior to April 1 assuming a higher PPS, but as we dipped - instead of selling I consequently bought into the weakness taking route 2 that I outlined despite being nervous.
Is your MNKD investment in an IRA account or a free standing account?
Have you factored in selling costs on your current trading plans - this is often over looked. Also, if you were to sell, would your sale fall under a SHORT term investment or LONG term investment.
Lastly, if you purchased MNKD at 10.8 and not much has changed and the current price of MNKD is at 10.28 irregardless if you feel a dip may occur - is it not cheaper than your original entry point and subsequent purchases? Could you not also average down after if dips occur? How would you feel if MNKD soars over 11 by the next week or under 9.5?
Feel free to message me your answers if you don't want to publicly disclose them.
Thank you,
Chris
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Post by alcc on Jun 8, 2014 18:15:44 GMT -5
No offense to anyone, but if it is that easy to divine the movement of share price there would be no more market, by definition, because everybody would do the same thing which means nobody would do anything. Conversely, if it is not easy hut a blessed few hold the secret key, well, there still would be no more market because the blessed few would own the market -- heck, they would own the world.
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Post by spiro on Jun 8, 2014 19:06:14 GMT -5
As long as your are right as often as Spiro, you can proclaim whatever you wish. But be careful if your are wrong, because Baba will make you pay for your mistakes. Spiro is trying to figure out which day MNKD hits $12 this week.
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Post by Chris on Jun 8, 2014 19:16:11 GMT -5
No offense taken here, my comments should just be taken as an interpretation of data and is just one opinion of an investor in a market full of investors.  I didn't state any price targets and was just attempting to analyze data from a historical point. |
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jun 8, 2014 23:01:54 GMT -5
The stock goes up almost parabolically and then goes down 5% and this is destroying you? For the little it is worth: I think you should simply invest in another asset class then biotechnology... JPG Im not sure you know what a Parabola is if you think its like a parabolic graph. This hit 11+ and almost came down to 9.60. For those of us who came in upper 10s my friend, this is a downfall not a parabola. Mankind, The people posting on this board have been involved with the stock for a couple of years and most of us are passionate about the company. This is the reason why you are getting some pretty blunt responses. The fact is, this is going to be a volatile stock for the near term. Biotech in itself is not for the weary. That said, this is a good company with a good product. If you are here, there's a reason for it. Do your research and figure out what your comfort level is. Also, Chris is a smart guy way ahead of his time, so his advice is sound. At the end of the day, it's your money. Invest wisely. For everyone else, take it easy on the new guy. |
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Post by lynn on Jun 8, 2014 23:55:09 GMT -5
I just wanted to say that I have Never looked forward to non holiday Mondays as much as I do now !!
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Post by nemzter on Jun 9, 2014 12:22:05 GMT -5
The stock goes up almost parabolically and then goes down 5% and this is destroying you? For the little it is worth: I think you should simply invest in another asset class then biotechnology... JPG Im not sure you know what a Parabola is if you think its like a parabolic graph. This hit 11+ and almost came down to 9.60. For those of us who came in upper 10s my friend, this is a downfall not a parabola. Investing in Biotech is not for the weak hearted. You should only be betting with what you can afford to lose. These types of price swings are the norm here, you'll just need to get used to it or sell once it passes 11 and find another investment. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2014 19:08:00 GMT -5
Im not sure you know what a Parabola is if you think its like a parabolic graph. This hit 11+ and almost came down to 9.60. For those of us who came in upper 10s my friend, this is a downfall not a parabola. Mankind, The people posting on this board have been involved with the stock for a couple of years and most of us are passionate about the company. This is the reason why you are getting some pretty blunt responses. The fact is, this is going to be a volatile stock for the near term. Biotech in itself is not for the weary. That said, this is a good company with a good product. If you are here, there's a reason for it. Do your research and figure out what your comfort level is. Also, Chris is a smart guy way ahead of his time, so his advice is sound. At the end of the day, it's your money. Invest wisely. For everyone else, take it easy on the new guy. I appreciate the bunt honesty. I don't mind the direct responses as they are welcome, as long as they are answering my questions. Let me give this board some background on me. Maybe this will enlighten your responses as to my asking. I am an Internal Medicine Doctor. I have been in practice for a very very very long time. I am very familiar with the company at hand, 100% more than anyone here, considering I have prescribed insulin derivatives to all my patients and I have been asked by many companies to take part in their clinical trials. What I am not familiar with and which is why I'm here is that Im new to the market. I am willing to share my insight in return for some guidance on investing regarding Pharmaceuticals. I don't like the roller coaster rides they bring, but I do see the upside. I prefer to try this out versus keep my money in mutual funds and have them stagnant. I hope this information will help you help me ..... |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2014 19:08:56 GMT -5
I appreciate the blunt honesty. I don't mind the direct responses as they are welcome, as long as they are answering my questions. Let me give this board some background on me. Maybe this will enlighten your responses as to my asking. I am an Internal Medicine Doctor. I have been in practice for a very very very long time. I am very familiar with the company at hand, 100% more than anyone here, considering I have prescribed insulin derivatives to all my patients and I have been asked by many companies to take part in their clinical trials. What I am not familiar with and which is why I'm here is that Im new to the market. I am willing to share my insight in return for some guidance on investing regarding Pharmaceuticals. I don't like the roller coaster rides they bring, but I do see the upside. I prefer to try this out versus keep my money in mutual funds and have them stagnant. I hope this information will help you help me .....
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Post by MnkdMainer (MM) on Jun 9, 2014 19:37:42 GMT -5
I appreciate the blunt honesty. I don't mind the direct responses as they are welcome, as long as they are answering my questions. Let me give this board some background on me. Maybe this will enlighten your responses as to my asking. I am an Internal Medicine Doctor. I have been in practice for a very very very long time. I am very familiar with the company at hand, 100% more than anyone here, considering I have prescribed insulin derivatives to all my patients and I have been asked by many companies to take part in their clinical trials. What I am not familiar with and which is why I'm here is that Im new to the market. I am willing to share my insight in return for some guidance on investing regarding Pharmaceuticals. I don't like the roller coaster rides they bring, but I do see the upside. I prefer to try this out versus keep my money in mutual funds and have them stagnant. I hope this information will help you help me ..... May I ask: What knowledge do you have of Afrezza? Have you participated in any of its clinical trials? You surely have valuable background knowledge given your professional experience. But there are many similar professionals, I think, who know nothing of Afrezza, the Technosphere platform, and this company and its founder whom we so respect. Welcome to this board and thank you for your participation. GLTY, GLTA! |
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