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Post by babaoriley on Nov 10, 2017 19:20:40 GMT -5
"lock in the discount" - they don't lock in the discount, they already get a discount. They lock in profits by covering the shares shorted with the shares purchased. They might sell all the shares or just a portion, and, if they can wrangle warrants, they likely sell them all, lock in profits and get the warrants as a complete bonus.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 10, 2017 20:23:49 GMT -5
"lock in the discount" - they don't lock in the discount, they already get a discount. They lock in profits by covering the shares shorted with the shares purchased. They might sell all the shares or just a portion, and, if they can wrangle warrants, they likely sell them all, lock in profits and get the warrants as a complete bonus. I feel as if I'm little Miss Construed. Sorry you didn't understand what I meant... though seems that you did, just assuming I didn't know what I meant.  If they intend to dump the shares and the share price immediately collapses down to the PIPE price to me that is losing the discount in a practical sense. So the shorting before the market is aware of PIPE is locking in the value of that discount. But I shall strive to be even more precise in my wording so as to leave no room to be misconstrued. |
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 10, 2017 21:37:50 GMT -5
Oh, they absolutely sell before they buy, otherwise, they may get caught holding the stock and be like, well, us!! |
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Post by peppy on Nov 10, 2017 21:45:06 GMT -5
MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, 4,409,635 shares.
MNKD Nasdaq summary volume, 6,239,164 shares. $3.24 minus .02.
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Post by peppy on Nov 11, 2017 1:03:20 GMT -5
ad nauseam  I am looking at the moving averages. Break and hold of one, targets the next. (look left, then right) with any luck, the coil is being wound. IF, huge IF, just typing and typing is cheap, this is a right shoulder of a lopsided inverted from hell; the power of the coil, meaning, the longs and short the have now added charge, as in current to the coil, if price breaks and holds 7 dollars the power of the inverted coil could take price up through the 2008 and 2012 lows. the 200 week targets. It would be fun to watch the 20 week, the 50 week and the 100 week line UP. blah, blah.
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Post by golfeveryday on Nov 12, 2017 11:16:57 GMT -5
Central, what will cause the crooks to ever ease up on the manipulation? Today was breathtaking.. and not in a good way. Dr. D has to convert first to unshackle pps. Near term binary event between 12/13/17 and 1/15/18: ME+India partnership voluntarily alluded to by MC. The co. Retained Matt P until 2019 for a reason. I speculate that much of the detail of the deal has been hashed out but the equity stake which basically needs Mann Foundation and Dr. D's approval. The SH vote is just a formality. Mgmt would not bring up the meeting w/o prior pre-approval by these two. I don't disagree with Kimi as the proxy material spelled out Poison Pill defense. TV commercial will take a few months to get traction due to the holiday heavy period and lag time due to Endo, PCP appointment. So, this is not the event that will materialize before 1/15/18. I expect Shorts will cover earnestly after Dr. D, especially between 12/13 and 1/15/18 as the risk is too high for them. The buy-in should be higher than $6 to grease the skid for the next PIPE if needed. Do not discount Can+Mex distributorship. We need this to absorb the plant's fixed cost and insulin contract with AMPH right away. I would think Deerfield would convert in this range to get the 4M shares if they think some sort of strategic news is on the way. The closer to the 140M authorized shares and maybe other news prior makes this harder to convert close to their $3.25 min price, plus any increase in RX week over week makes it harder to keep the price here. |
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Post by xanet on Nov 12, 2017 13:19:45 GMT -5
I would think Deerfield would convert in this range to get the 4M shares if they think some sort of strategic news is on the way. The closer to the 140M authorized shares and maybe other news prior makes this harder to convert close to their $3.25 min price, plus any increase in RX week over week makes it harder to keep the price here. I don't think we would know if they had already converted. |
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Post by golfeveryday on Nov 12, 2017 14:12:19 GMT -5
I would think Deerfield would convert in this range to get the 4M shares if they think some sort of strategic news is on the way. The closer to the 140M authorized shares and maybe other news prior makes this harder to convert close to their $3.25 min price, plus any increase in RX week over week makes it harder to keep the price here. I don't think we would know if they had already converted. would assume that to be material news requiring it to be reported. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 12, 2017 15:16:03 GMT -5
Dr. D has to convert first to unshackle pps. Near term binary event between 12/13/17 and 1/15/18: ME+India partnership voluntarily alluded to by MC. The co. Retained Matt P until 2019 for a reason. I speculate that much of the detail of the deal has been hashed out but the equity stake which basically needs Mann Foundation and Dr. D's approval. The SH vote is just a formality. Mgmt would not bring up the meeting w/o prior pre-approval by these two. I don't disagree with Kimi as the proxy material spelled out Poison Pill defense. TV commercial will take a few months to get traction due to the holiday heavy period and lag time due to Endo, PCP appointment. So, this is not the event that will materialize before 1/15/18. I expect Shorts will cover earnestly after Dr. D, especially between 12/13 and 1/15/18 as the risk is too high for them. The buy-in should be higher than $6 to grease the skid for the next PIPE if needed. Do not discount Can+Mex distributorship. We need this to absorb the plant's fixed cost and insulin contract with AMPH right away. I would think Deerfield would convert in this range to get the 4M shares if they think some sort of strategic news is on the way. The closer to the 140M authorized shares and maybe other news prior makes this harder to convert close to their $3.25 min price, plus any increase in RX week over week makes it harder to keep the price here. Or if they don't think some sort of strategic news is on the way, they could simply take advantage of weakness and buy shares on the open market below $3.25... under the assumption they actually want to hold shares, which possibly they aren't wanting to do anyway. Doubling the number of shares will have downward pressure on the stock unless there is something like dramatic increase in NRx to make it seem they aren't going to need most or all of that potential dilution. |
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Post by casualinvestor on Nov 13, 2017 9:11:00 GMT -5
I would think Deerfield would convert in this range to get the 4M shares if they think some sort of strategic news is on the way. The closer to the 140M authorized shares and maybe other news prior makes this harder to convert close to their $3.25 min price, plus any increase in RX week over week makes it harder to keep the price here. My understanding is that they are getting $10M in shares plus interest, with a cap of 4 million shares, and a floor of $3.25 PPS. But at $3.25, that's just over 3.07 million shares. Every day that Deerfield delays, they get more interest and therefore more shares. Also, they'd be foolish to not wait for a nice upswing day to convert, as they get the average of the 3 previous days. |
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Post by bill on Nov 13, 2017 12:26:27 GMT -5
I would think Deerfield would convert in this range to get the 4M shares if they think some sort of strategic news is on the way. The closer to the 140M authorized shares and maybe other news prior makes this harder to convert close to their $3.25 min price, plus any increase in RX week over week makes it harder to keep the price here. My understanding is that they are getting $10M in shares plus interest, with a cap of 4 million shares, and a floor of $3.25 PPS. But at $3.25, that's just over 3.07 million shares. Every day that Deerfield delays, they get more interest and therefore more shares. Also, they'd be foolish to not wait for a nice upswing day to convert, as they get the average of the 3 previous days. - Wouldn't Deerfield get FEWER shares for their repayment if they waited until a "nice upswing" occurred? It seems to me that they'd want to convert BEFORE any major upswing, otherwise they could get many fewer shares. For example, if the price rose to $32.50 / share then they'd only get 307,000 shares. |
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Post by dg1111 on Nov 13, 2017 12:41:01 GMT -5
My understanding is that they are getting $10M in shares plus interest, with a cap of 4 million shares, and a floor of $3.25 PPS. But at $3.25, that's just over 3.07 million shares. Every day that Deerfield delays, they get more interest and therefore more shares. Also, they'd be foolish to not wait for a nice upswing day to convert, as they get the average of the 3 previous days. - Wouldn't Deerfield get FEWER shares for their repayment if they waited until a "nice upswing" occurred? It seems to me that they'd want to convert BEFORE any major upswing, otherwise they could get many fewer shares. For example, if the price rose to $32.50 / share then they'd only get 307,000 shares. I think that what he means is that because they get the 3 day average, waiting for an upswing allows them to get shares at a discount to the current price. Hypothetically, if share price for 3 consecutive days was 3, 3, 6, then they would get shares for 4. They could make an immediate profit that way. If they are looking for a long term play, then getting in at the cheapest price would be best. |
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Post by casualinvestor on Nov 13, 2017 12:41:11 GMT -5
The way I read the agreement, on the day that Deerfield chooses to convert, the last 3 days of price by VWAP will be their buy price, or $3.25, whichever is higher. That 3-day vWAP is currently below $3.25.
So if the price goes up to $(whatever) today, and they decide to convert today, they still get the shares for $3.25. And every day that the PPS stays under $3.25 they get another day to wait and decide.
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Post by bill on Nov 13, 2017 13:55:46 GMT -5
The way I read the agreement, on the day that Deerfield chooses to convert, the last 3 days of price by VWAP will be their buy price, or $3.25, whichever is higher. That 3-day vWAP is currently below $3.25. So if the price goes up to $(whatever) today, and they decide to convert today, they still get the shares for $3.25. And every day that the PPS stays under $3.25 they get another day to wait and decide. - Sounds like we're in agreement. As long as the price lingers in the $3.25 range, Deerfield can afford to wait. However, if the price rises sharply, they'll have to fish or cut bait if they don't want to lose their edge. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Nov 13, 2017 14:10:44 GMT -5
If Deerfield wasn't in it for the long haul, they would have already made moves to tighten the rope and the purse strings. They've done the opposite working with Mannkind management to help this company succeed. It will be interesting to see how this conversion plays out.
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