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Post by seanismorris on Aug 12, 2014 17:17:46 GMT -5
I agree with RBC, the lowering of the price target to $13 from $16 makes sense.
In a previous comment I set my target at $12 and mentioned $16 as the could have been target if the deal was 50/50
I initially was tentative on the deal because on one hand I got the partner I wanted in Sanofi, but on the other the deal was good but not great. I've listened to both calls, and I became more bullish on the partnership. The synergy between Mannkind and Sanofi is as good as it gets. Sanofi was very convincing that Afrezza wouldn't be taking a backseat to any other product at Sanofi and that they would be doing everything possible to make it a success. Matt was convincing that they chose the best partner, and the insulin supplied (at cost) from Sanofi will boost margins and make the 65/35 partnership better than it looks at first glance. The loan commitment from Sanofi to Mannkind ensures that Mannkind will have sufficient funds to get Afrezza to market, so that's another concern removed. The cash upfront payment will be enough to fund general expenses and increased R&D for other Technosphere opportunities.
Our problem now is we have no news until launch. We don't even have sales projections because that's Sanofi's deal and proprietary.
I'd like to hear from Mannkind about signing another partnership, I.e. On pain, but that's just to hear something or to prop up the stock price. The reality is Mannkind probably needs to do significantly more work internally before they could present the data in such a way that they can negotiate from strength. I do think it will happen, but the wait may be painful for investors.
My (next) buy price target for Mannkinds shares was 7$. We are getting close...I'll be looking to buy soon.
The chart does not say buy, so I'm watching the average analyst price target rise (on yahoo). Once it reaches $12 I'll be buying my last trading shares of MNKD. I may not time it to get the absolute lowest price but I think a sentiment shift is coming. I expect the investors with unreasonable expectations will be mostly out by then and hedge funds and institutions will be getting in at a value price...I'd like to ride that wave back up.
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Post by brentie on Aug 12, 2014 17:33:16 GMT -5
"I'd like to hear from Mannkind about signing another partnership, I.e. On pain, but that's just to hear something or to prop up the stock price. The reality is Mannkind probably needs to do significantly more work internally before they could present the data in such a way that they can negotiate from strength. I do think it will happen, but the wait may be painful for investors. " Actually they already are working with someone on inhalable pain medication.( not migraines though) www.tcpalm.com/business/torrey-pines-could-begin-human-testing-of-new-in |
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Post by liane on Aug 12, 2014 19:19:17 GMT -5
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Post by 4Balance on Aug 12, 2014 23:03:17 GMT -5
"I'd like to hear from Mannkind about signing another partnership, I.e. On pain, but that's just to hear something or to prop up the stock price. The reality is Mannkind probably needs to do significantly more work internally before they could present the data in such a way that they can negotiate from strength. I do think it will happen, but the wait may be painful for investors. " Actually they already are working with someone on inhalable pain medication.( not migraines though) www.tcpalm.com/business/torrey-pines-could-begin-human-testing-of-new-inIs this the project they needed to place on hold, to focus on getting Afrezza approved and partnership in hand?? I wonder what stage it's in, and how soon work can resume. |
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Post by 4Balance on Aug 12, 2014 23:13:59 GMT -5
Thomas Reuters issued a report consolidating the opinions of 8 firms, 4 of which said Hold. Only 1 said Sell...so, if one of those Holds is upgraded, that might trip the Buy signal. The 12-mo price target has a mean of 10.3, a high of 16, and a low of 4. (Quite a range.) I like Griffin's pretty pictures...but I like the positive view even more. What factors best explain the divergence of thinking here? It seems, few paint as rosy a picture as Griffin's. |
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Post by liane on Aug 13, 2014 4:51:14 GMT -5
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Post by brentie on Aug 13, 2014 5:49:42 GMT -5
"I'd like to hear from Mannkind about signing another partnership, I.e. On pain, but that's just to hear something or to prop up the stock price. The reality is Mannkind probably needs to do significantly more work internally before they could present the data in such a way that they can negotiate from strength. I do think it will happen, but the wait may be painful for investors. " Actually they already are working with someone on inhalable pain medication.( not migraines though) www.tcpalm.com/business/torrey-pines-could-begin-human-testing-of-new-inIs this the project they needed to place on hold, to focus on getting Afrezza approved and partnership in hand?? I wonder what stage it's in, and how soon work can resume. 4balance, they had to put a number of projects on hold for lack of funds. You can read about them here. seekingalpha.com/article/81899-mannkind-overlooked-biotech-with-excellent-prospects-part-v |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 18, 2014 21:06:24 GMT -5
Am I the only one that is surprised we haven't picked up new analyst coverage and more updates from existing ones since the Sanofi announcement?
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 18, 2014 22:56:51 GMT -5
Mannkind Analysts
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
Brinson Patrick
Cowen and Company
Griffin Securities, Inc.
J.P. Morgan
JMP Securities
MLV & Co. LLC
Piper Jaffray
RBC Capital
Should we play where's Waldo?
We haven't even heard from all the analysts that actively participated on the last call.
I'm going give them the rest of the week to come forward before I conclude analysts are worthless, but you can guess which way I'm leaning.
OK I've already decided Piper Jaffray's opinion is worthless...
RBC Capital I will follow, they seem the best of the bunch.
Am I surprised? Well somewhat...I've noticed that most analysts take the current stock price and add 20% when setting price targets.
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Post by BD on Aug 18, 2014 23:12:16 GMT -5
Given all the "known unknowns", is it really all that surprising that the usual gang of idiots is clueless about setting a price target? Besides, it seems like a typical CYA move to wait until the PPS seems to have bottomed before setting a PT that's along the lines of what we think is reasonable.
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Post by papihoyos on Aug 19, 2014 9:44:20 GMT -5
Until the agreement is available, any analyst is just guessing.
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 19, 2014 12:38:04 GMT -5
Analysts are always guessing.
They will all probably be guessing about MNKD until the middle of next year, when actual sales data comes out.
That doesn't mean they shouldn't have an opinion about the details of the deal (so far) and if it's a positive or negative for Mannkind.
If they don't want to give a price target, they should call the stock a HOLD. Doing nothing is lazy, just like when many of the analysts had their assistants participate on the investor calls. (And, asked stupid questions about things they should have already known the answers to)
They are either analysts for MNKD or they're not.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 19, 2014 13:21:10 GMT -5
Just received this from Ford Equity Research - Upgraded MNKD to HOLD (seen this as a STRONG SELL before FDA giving the nod)
Stock Security Description Source Rating Date Previous Rating Current Rating Price Date Previous Target Price Current Target Price
MNKD MANNKIND Ford Equity Research 15/08/2014 SELL HOLD
Sorry folks, no target prices.
OOG
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 19, 2014 13:35:12 GMT -5
Ford Equity Research + Mannkind doesn't show any search results from Google
Also, they aren't listed on Mannkinds website as an analyst.
I also don't remember then ever asking any Qs on the conference calls (correct me if I'm wrong).
It looks at first glance like they make recommendations on stock price actions, and perhaps look at earning trends...
They need to give something more than a HOLD recommendation on MNKD before I'd take them seriously.
Where's the beef?
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 19, 2014 14:11:47 GMT -5
Just posting what I received via email from my Broker.
I have not exactly been relying on them as from what I can tell it is just an automated opinion based upon a computer reading of the financials.
I even went so far as to complain to my broker about the Ford "Opinions" and how it was a load of Crapola. If I had been following their advice, I would have headed for the exits at somewhere south of 3 dollars.
Its just interesting that they popped that out today with no new financials being generated. Wonder if we might see a target price in the near future.
OOG
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