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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 19, 2014 15:25:24 GMT -5
Am I surprised? Well somewhat...I've noticed that most analysts take the current stock price and add 20% when setting price targets. Y = 1.2 X Shhhh! That formula is a tightly held secret. Only highly trained and paid professionals are supposed to attempt calculations like that  |
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Post by liane on Aug 27, 2014 6:32:12 GMT -5
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Post by BD on Aug 27, 2014 6:39:40 GMT -5
And a $10 PT, too:
06:47 EDT MNKD theflyonthewall.com: MannKind initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
Target $10. :theflyonthewall.com
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Post by brentie on Aug 27, 2014 7:36:57 GMT -5
Jefferies Sees Peak Afrezza Sales of $3.2B, Starts MannKind (MNKD) at Buy Updated - August 27, 2014 7:51 AM EDT) Jefferies initiated coverage on MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD) with a Buy rating and a price target of $10.00. Analyst Shaunak Deepak said he was taking a contrarian stance ahead of Afrezza launch. He sees peak Afrezza sales of $3.2 billion. "MNKD is off 33% since the Afrezza approval, reflecting negative Street sentiment about the Sanofi partnership and upcoming launch. Key concerns include docs not adopting Afrezza as a first-line insulin, aggressive counter-detailing from Novo and Lilly to protect their stake in the $6b+ mealtime insulin market, and a bad track record with the only other approved inhaled insulin, Exubera," said Deepak. "We believe Afrezza could address a major unmet need among patients poorly controlled with oral drugs that have not advanced to injectable agents. Surveys of insulin non-adherence suggest a not insubstantial portion of patients reject insulin due to reluctance to take shots. Accounting for other factors that influence patient avoidance of insulin, we believe Afrezza could be used as a first-line insulin for almost 8% of type 2 patients failing oral drugs, worth $1.6b in peak U.S. sales. We believe Sanofi would promote Afrezza as a first-line insulin to gain and retain patients for its $8b+ insulin franchise," he continued. "While Afrezza has shown non-inferiority to Novolog as a mealtime add-on in both type 1 and type 2 diabetics, we believe the significantly better A1c reductions with Novolog will be a challenge for marketing Afrezza. Compounding this is the Street’s memory of Exubera as a flop associated with lung cancer. We believe some patients only on basal insulin will be attracted to Afrezza’s benefits in hypoglycemia and weight gain, while some current mealtime insulin users will be drawn to reductions in injection burden and the whistle-like delivery device, which is more discrete than Exubera’s. We expect modest 3% and 6% penetration among type 1 and type 2 patients already on insulin, contributing $200m and $650m in U.S. sales. We see Sanofi as strongly motivated to promote Afrezza in this setting as its mealtime insulin, Apidra, only has a 3% share," he added. For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on MannKind click here. For more ratings news on MannKind click here. Shares of MannKind closed at $7.34 yesterday. www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Jefferies+Sees+Peak+Afrezza+Sales+of+$3.2B,+Starts+MannKind+(MNKD)+at+Buy/9785895.html |
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Post by spiro on Aug 27, 2014 8:10:15 GMT -5
OK, so Jeffries is thinking that peak Afrezza sales will be $3.2 billion. That's a pretty impressive number considering the lack of projections from MNKD or SNY. Florida, California, Texas and Arizona will take care of most of that $3.2 billion number pretty quick. Now, once we add the rest of the world, who knows?
Spiro here, I can wait.
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Post by rak5555 on Aug 27, 2014 8:27:03 GMT -5
I imagine $10 is the 12 month price target and $3.2 billion is out a few years. Anyone (other than Spiro) know if $3.2 is US only?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 27, 2014 14:58:16 GMT -5
I imagine $10 is the 12 month price target and $3.2 billion is out a few years. Anyone (other than Spiro) know if $3.2 is US only? I believe they are saying worldwide based on the figure they quote for overall prandial. Though I'm just working on recollection. It would seem you are right about $10 being 12 month, and presumably not reflecting $3.2 billion in sales. If we use the 29% expense figure that seemed to be inferred from some of the CC discussions, $3.2B sales would yield $2.27B profit of which $800M would go to Mannkind. Not sure what would be reasonable for their other expenses not covered by the partnership but let's call it $200M. That leaves $600M profit. Even at a very low 13 P/E this would yield $7.8B market cap or high teens fully diluted share price. Obviously not counting value of Technosphere. Anyone see glaring flaw in this calculation (if we discard value beyond $3.2B in annual Afrezza sales). |
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Post by kc on Aug 27, 2014 16:08:43 GMT -5
Nice that By Ben Levisohn at Barrons Blog called out the Street today in his piece. blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/08/27/mannkind-why-jefferies-says-buy/#comment-2999559Shares of MannKind (MNKD) have gained 1.8% to $7.47 at 3:49 p.m. today after Jefferies initiated the company at Buy. Jefferies analyst Shaunak Deepak explains why he’s bullish on MannKind’s shares: The Street Is Negatively Biased Against Afrezza Launch. MannKind is off 33% sincethe Afrezza approval, reflecting negative Street sentiment about the Sanofi partnership and upcoming launch. Key concerns include docs not adopting Afrezza as a first-line insulin, aggressive counter-detailing from Novo and Eli Lilly (LLY) to protect their stake in the $6b+ mealtime insulin market, and a bad track record with the only other approved inhaled insulin, Exubera. We Believe Afrezza Could Radically Grow Mealtime Insulin Use. We believe Afrezza could address a major unmet need among patients poorly controlled with oral drugs that have not advanced to injectable agents. Surveys of insulin non-adherence suggest a not insubstantial portion of patients reject insulin due to reluctance to take shots. Accounting for other factors that influence patient avoidance of insulin, we believe Afrezza could be used as a first-line insulin for almost 8% of type 2 patients failing oral drugs, worth $1.6b in peak U.S. sales. We believe Sanofi would promote Afrezza as a first-line insulin to gain and retain patients for its $8b+ insulin franchise. Deepak initiated MannKind with a price target of $10, 34% higher than its current price. |
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Post by chauffe00 on Aug 30, 2014 8:49:24 GMT -5
On the Merrill analyst report and the morning star analyst report they both keep highlighting that the bearish indicator is the possible lung cancer side efeects due to the past with Exubera. How ludicrous is this after it has been stated that of the 6 cases out of 4740 patients involving lung cancer and Exubera all 6 were SMOKERS! Even wikipedia has that info. If this is all they have to hold on to its just plain sad. It was also noted that mannkind success is dependent on Afrezza - no mention of technosphere technology opportunities as well...    The anger is making me sick... |
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Post by BD on Aug 30, 2014 9:26:49 GMT -5
chauffe, why be angry? This is simply a situation where we, the retail investors, have a better understanding of this company and stock than the "writing heads" (it goes without saying we have a better knowledge than the talking heads...)
And that's how we make money, if we don't let the idjuts get us down...
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Post by seanismorris on Sept 3, 2014 9:39:02 GMT -5
Why I take analysts price targets (opinions) with a grain of salt...
There are 8 analysts listed by Yahoo. The lowest expectation is one for underperform and no sells. I'm assuming that underperform is the same analyst that has a price target of $4. Wouldn't you think if you thought a stock would loose 50% of its current market cap, you'd call that a Sell?
FYI I'm pretty sure the $4 price target has been around when the stock was above $8
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Post by mannmade on Sept 5, 2014 21:24:53 GMT -5
Picked this up off Yahoo Board... Have seen before but don't remember if was ever posted here. If you have not seen you should view and then keep the faith as it is clear what is going on with Mannkind... Why these guys are not all in jail remains a mystery to me... www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6gxPCurDJs&app=desktop |
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Post by trenddiver on Sept 10, 2014 12:27:43 GMT -5
What a scoundrel this Cramer is? Hope the SEC or some prosecuter gets a hold of this.
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Post by heyagoodlookin on Oct 2, 2014 2:52:51 GMT -5
Picked this up off Yahoo Board... Have seen before but don't remember if was ever posted here. If you have not seen you should view and then keep the faith as it is clear what is going on with Mannkind... Why these guys are not all in jail remains a mystery to me... www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6gxPCurDJs&app=desktopJon Stewart played this clip for cramer when he was on his show. Youtube. |
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Post by bradleysbest on Oct 2, 2014 12:03:52 GMT -5
Yet nothing can be done about it.....
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