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Post by therealisaching on Oct 23, 2017 18:13:43 GMT -5
That average is what Deerfield will pay to acquire their shares. The conspiracy theory goes that say they will be buying on Friday. If they sell short, say at $4, and drive down the price to $3.75, then they will buy shares later at $3.75, which they can use to cover their short position. Oh, the conspiracy theory... The shares Deerfield took yesterday works out to be approximately $4.11. “Exchanged senior convertible notes in the amount of approximately $27.7 million due August 2018 for senior convertible notes in the amount of approximately $23.7 million due October 2021 and 973,236 shares of common stock.” If the theory says they will buy on Friday, we should have more down days through Thursday to try to bring the 3 day average to $3.25. FYI... I don’t buy into the theory. I think Deerfield wants the stock price moving up since they keep accepting stock instead of cash or debt. Apples and oranges. The 973,236 shares are a done deal in order to partially pay down the August 2018 notes and extend the maturities to October 2021. The 4 million shares that could be converted at a floor of $3.25 would be used to pay down the $10 million that was to be paid at the end of this month and now extended until January.
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Post by radgray68 on Oct 23, 2017 18:25:16 GMT -5
Holy Cow! If my top-of-the-head math is right, with the share placement and debt restructuring, we just extended our runway by almost a year. You guys think we can get sales up over a million $ a week by next October? Because, if so, that could make this the last dilution EVER. That can't be right. Can it?
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Post by rockstarrick on Oct 23, 2017 18:55:52 GMT -5
In other words,,, you cant sell to anybody that has not accepted our selling price Slight correction - "you can't sell directly to anybody that has not accepted our selling price" You could sell to Goldman (or any other passing bank) who would take the shares onto their books and then sell them to absolutely anyone. This is what bank trading desks do for their living - by and sell stock. The god forsaken “loop hole” 😎
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Post by casualinvestor on Oct 24, 2017 7:37:17 GMT -5
That average is what Deerfield will pay to acquire their shares. The conspiracy theory goes that say they will be buying on Friday. If they sell short, say at $4, and drive down the price to $3.75, then they will buy shares later at $3.75, which they can use to cover their short position. Oh, the conspiracy theory... The shares Deerfield took yesterday works out to be approximately $4.11. “Exchanged senior convertible notes in the amount of approximately $27.7 million due August 2018 for senior convertible notes in the amount of approximately $23.7 million due October 2021 and 973,236 shares of common stock.” If the theory says they will buy on Friday, we should have more down days through Thursday to try to bring the 3 day average to $3.25. FYI... I don’t buy into the theory. I think Deerfield wants the stock price moving up since they keep accepting stock instead of cash or debt. Deerfield doesn't need to sell short to profit from a price that falls to the floor of $3.25. The lower the price goes in the short term, the cheaper they (and anyone else) can get the stock according to the terms. I agree they want the stock price to go up in the long term, but their desire for short term price shift should be lower. Whether they are actively doing anything to drop the PPS, that I have no idea about. The good news is that their buy-in for the $23 million is a fixed price. Once this $10 million is purchased, then it's the exact opposite. And I'll still have no idea if they will be doing anything to increase the PPS. But us long term investors don't have to care. Financing is secured. 2018 looks like it will be a very good year. Lets worry about marketing, insurance coverage, scripts and other product lines. I should get my account setup to trade options and look at 2019 leaps
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Post by boca1girl on Oct 24, 2017 8:07:00 GMT -5
Oh, the conspiracy theory... The shares Deerfield took yesterday works out to be approximately $4.11. “Exchanged senior convertible notes in the amount of approximately $27.7 million due August 2018 for senior convertible notes in the amount of approximately $23.7 million due October 2021 and 973,236 shares of common stock.” If the theory says they will buy on Friday, we should have more down days through Thursday to try to bring the 3 day average to $3.25. FYI... I don’t buy into the theory. I think Deerfield wants the stock price moving up since they keep accepting stock instead of cash or debt. Deerfield doesn't need to sell short to profit from a price that falls to the floor of $3.25. The lower the price goes in the short term, the cheaper they (and anyone else) can get the stock according to the terms. I agree they want the stock price to go up in the long term, but their desire for short term price shift should be lower. Whether they are actively doing anything to drop the PPS, that I have no idea about. The good news is that their buy-in for the $23 million is a fixed price. Once this $10 million is purchased, then it's the exact opposite. And I'll still have no idea if they will be doing anything to increase the PPS. But us long term investors don't have to care. Financing is secured. 2018 looks like it will be a very good year. Lets worry about marketing, insurance coverage, scripts and other product lines. I should get my account setup to trade options and look at 2019 leaps Yes, I understand that Deerfield can benefit from a short term price drop. Maybe Nate’s comment about the price possibly dropping to the mid 3’s before heading to the 9’s was based on “guessing” that there would be a provision for Deerfield to purchase at $3.25. So if we are destined to go down to $3.25, I hope it comes today so it is over and done with, and then we can start to move back up. If Deerfield converts $10M for 3,076,923 shares, does anyone know how many shares would be left? Some here hoped that we sold via the ATM when the price was at $6.
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Post by therealisaching on Oct 24, 2017 8:20:43 GMT -5
Deerfield doesn't need to sell short to profit from a price that falls to the floor of $3.25. The lower the price goes in the short term, the cheaper they (and anyone else) can get the stock according to the terms. I agree they want the stock price to go up in the long term, but their desire for short term price shift should be lower. Whether they are actively doing anything to drop the PPS, that I have no idea about. The good news is that their buy-in for the $23 million is a fixed price. Once this $10 million is purchased, then it's the exact opposite. And I'll still have no idea if they will be doing anything to increase the PPS. But us long term investors don't have to care. Financing is secured. 2018 looks like it will be a very good year. Lets worry about marketing, insurance coverage, scripts and other product lines. I should get my account setup to trade options and look at 2019 leaps Yes, I understand that Deerfield can benefit from a short term price drop. Maybe Nate’s comment about the price possibly dropping to the mid 3’s before heading to the 9’s was based on “guessing” that there would be a provision for Deerfield to purchase at $3.25. So if we are destined to go down to $3.25, I hope it comes today so it is over and done with, and then we can start to move back up. If Deerfield converts $10M for 3,076,923 shares, does anyone know how many shares would be left? Some here hoped that we sold via the ATM when the price was at $6. Point of clarification. Deerfield doesnt get to convert for $3.25. Its a floor. The terms are:
The conversion price will be the greater of (i) the average of the volume weighted average price per share of the common stock for the three trading day period immediately preceding the date of any election by Deerfield to convert principal amounts and (ii) $3.25 per share
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Post by peppy on Oct 24, 2017 8:23:16 GMT -5
140,000,000 shares common stock authorized march 1, 2017 plus the 10,000,000 shares tase, undesignated preferred stock. dec, 31, 2016, 95,680,831 common stock.
page 110 10k
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Post by straightly on Oct 24, 2017 9:27:53 GMT -5
Yes, I understand that Deerfield can benefit from a short term price drop. Maybe Nate’s comment about the price possibly dropping to the mid 3’s before heading to the 9’s was based on “guessing” that there would be a provision for Deerfield to purchase at $3.25. So if we are destined to go down to $3.25, I hope it comes today so it is over and done with, and then we can start to move back up. If Deerfield converts $10M for 3,076,923 shares, does anyone know how many shares would be left? Some here hoped that we sold via the ATM when the price was at $6. Point of clarification. Deerfield doesnt get to convert for $3.25. Its a floor. The terms are:
The conversion price will be the greater of (i) the average of the volume weighted average price per share of the common stock for the three trading day period immediately preceding the date of any election by Deerfield to convert principal amounts and (ii) $3.25 per share
True. Personally, I actually do not believe Deerfield is shorting us. But if the conspiracy theory goes that it were, what can a long can say to to himself to buy above $3.25 other than the hope for a long term? And a long and suffering term? I do not like these shenanigans, up or down, especially down! Caanot help myself so bought a few more again to catch the shenanigans up. 😣 Felt warm and fuzzy cause 10/23 news show that Mike knew what he is doing and and is doing what is good for MNKD.
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Post by deaner3 on Oct 26, 2017 9:01:16 GMT -5
So is today day 3 of it being around 3.24 and now it can be executed to exchange debt for Stock so Deerfield can switch bullish instead of shorting? Hope so. Am I seeing this right ?
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Post by xanet on Oct 26, 2017 9:18:01 GMT -5
So is today day 3 of it being around 3.24 and now it can be executed to exchange debt for Stock so Deerfield can switch bullish instead of shorting? Hope so. Am I seeing this right ? No, we are averaging well above $3.25 for the past two days, so we would need to see lower prices, if you think Deerfield is driving the price down, or at least waiting for that threshold level. And none of us knows whether that is the case.
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Post by casualinvestor on Oct 26, 2017 9:41:01 GMT -5
My opinion is that they are waiting until they can get close to the best price possible. I'm assuming that the close of the market is used for the 3-day average?
Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume Oct 26, 2017 3.38 3.50 3.24 3.45 3.45 1,660,201 (still open of course) Oct 25, 2017 3.64 3.75 3.38 3.41 3.41 6,583,700 Oct 24, 2017 3.65 3.84 3.34 3.61 3.61 13,300,400 Oct 23, 2017 4.21 4.25 3.70 3.70 3.70 9,517,700
If today closes at 3.40, then that would knock 10 cents/share off of a 3 million share purchase. Essentially allowing them to purchase another 100k shares for the same amount. I think they'll wait until the end of today at least.
If it's a 3-day continuous average, then they will also wait until the end of today, as on monday the PPS spent most of the day around $4.00, and only dropped hard at the end of the day.
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Post by traderdennis on Oct 26, 2017 10:02:21 GMT -5
My opinion is that they are waiting until they can get close to the best price possible. I'm assuming that the close of the market is used for the 3-day average? Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume Oct 26, 2017 3.38 3.50 3.24 3.45 3.45 1,660,201 (still open of course) Oct 25, 2017 3.64 3.75 3.38 3.41 3.41 6,583,700 Oct 24, 2017 3.65 3.84 3.34 3.61 3.61 13,300,400 Oct 23, 2017 4.21 4.25 3.70 3.70 3.70 9,517,700 If today closes at 3.40, then that would knock 10 cents/share off of a 3 million share purchase. Essentially allowing them to purchase another 100k shares for the same amount. I think they'll wait until the end of today at least. If it's a 3-day continuous average, then they will also wait until the end of today, as on monday the PPS spent most of the day around $4.00, and only dropped hard at the end of the day. I thought I read they are using VWAP
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Post by therealisaching on Oct 26, 2017 12:57:02 GMT -5
Mike C's road map from Slide 18 at the Cantor conference:
Near Term Milestones and Key Events
1. Growth Trajectory Continues for Afrezza (accomplishing)
2. FDA Label Change (achieved)
3. Recapitalization (freed up 8.4MM shares, placed $60MM, moved 28MM due 8/18 to 10/21, likely converting this years 10MM with shares)
4. International Expansion Announcements (BIOMM filing)
5. Receptor Life Sciences (Mike C @ Cantor "There’s a Receptor Life Sciences collaboration, which we haven’t talked about much in the 18 months. It was announced in January 2016. We’ll have some updates on that collaboration, that’s focused on the cannabinoid market. And so we’ll be talking about that in near future") 6. One Drop Collaboration 7. Expansion of Payor Coverage (CVS/Caremark? Mike C said they were ready to sign with a large PBM in Jan 18)
8. Completion of STAT Trial (Mike C @ Cantor "Our STAT trial, which is really looking at Afrezza plus Dexcom will be – we’ll get those results in late fall and they’ll be presented next year")
9. IND Filing for Treprostinil
Mike keeps checking his boxes off. Hopefully more to share by the q3 earnings call.
You can check off #6 as well I think #6 is going to be something more than the study.
Mike C at the Cantor Fitzgerald presentation:
"One Drop collaboration is something we announced in late May, and that’s something that we’re looking at around, how do you use coaching to get optimal outcomes? How you potentially think about a membership model to change the cash market? There’s $300 million in cash insulin sales in this country, where people are paying several hundred dollars a month just for their insulin."
Then toward the end of his time
"And the One Drop collaboration is really a little bit more complex, because no one’s ever really built a membership model or a concept like that for any drug. And so it just takes a little more time to work through the regulatory hurdles."
Mike also replied in a tweet to someone having access issues with United on 10/21:
We are working on a cash pay program that should help people. It’s horrible insurance companies deny great health
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Post by dh4mizzou on Oct 26, 2017 13:19:03 GMT -5
Is this right? "There’s $300 million in cash insulin sales in this country, where people are paying several hundred dollars a month just for their insulin."
Seems like he meant to say billion?
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Post by traderdennis on Oct 26, 2017 14:27:55 GMT -5
Is this right? "There’s $300 million in cash insulin sales in this country, where people are paying several hundred dollars a month just for their insulin." Seems like he meant to say billion? It is not 300 Billion either. That would be an average of $1000 cash insulin sales for every man women and child in the United States. When you filter out non PWD's, type twos not using insulin, those on insurance, medicare and mediaid, 300 Million looks far more reasonable.
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