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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 26, 2017 14:57:55 GMT -5
Is this right? "There’s $300 million in cash insulin sales in this country, where people are paying several hundred dollars a month just for their insulin." Seems like he meant to say billion? It is not 300 Billion either. That would be an average of $1000 cash insulin sales for every man women and child in the United States. When you filter out non PWD's, type twos not using insulin, those on insurance, medicare and mediaid, 300 Million looks far more reasonable. But Afrezza's potential is unlimited... has to be in the trillions  |
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Post by dh4mizzou on Oct 26, 2017 16:12:34 GMT -5
It is not 300 Billion either. That would be an average of $1000 cash insulin sales for every man women and child in the United States. When you filter out non PWD's, type twos not using insulin, those on insurance, medicare and mediaid, 300 Million looks far more reasonable. But Afrezza's potential is unlimited... has to be in the trillions DBC, Thanks for reeling me in. |
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Post by lakers on Oct 26, 2017 17:51:05 GMT -5
7. Expansion of Payor Coverage (CVS/Caremark? Mike C said they were ready to sign with a large PBM in Jan 18) ExpressScript, no PA, Aetna, Anthem and more in Jan 2018. But number one, our sales force was hired in February. We started with a small beta sales force last year, and we subsequently expanded them to a full-time MannKind sales force in February. And we started, February with about 70 FTEs, we since hired some Medical Liaisons and we’ve got a fully integrated sales team, I think right about 90ish sales reps today, and our insurance coverage continues to expand, so we have Express Scripts with no prior authorization, Aetna, Anthem and more to come. One Drop collaboration is something we announced in late May, and that’s something that we’re looking at around, how do you use coaching to get optimal outcomes? How you potentially think about a membership model to change the cash market? There’s $300 million in cash insulin sales in this country, where people are paying several hundred dollars a month just for their insulin. The next thing is around clinical trials. So the last time there was any trial done for this drug was probably back in 2012 subsequently getting ready for approval. Since then you’ve had people like Dexcom and One Drop and [indiscernible] all these new technologies coming into diabetes around coaching and virtual apps, and so we don’t have any data in that space. We started to invest data looking at dosing of this product and how you dose the drug, because we think that if you go back to the pivotal programs, the product was consistently underdosed. And so we passed our outcomes, but I believe if you really dose the product, if you look at some of our modeling data, we believe we can have potentially a superior insulin. Now, we’re trying to really get some of that data moving, so that we can really articulate what the product profile looks like versus other mealtime insulins. MannKind's (MNKD) CEO Michael Castagna on Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference (Transcript) $MNKD www.seekingalpha.com/article/4109298Kevin McCoy, USA TODAY Published 4:52 p.m. ET Oct. 26, 2017 | Updated 6:27 p.m. ET Oct. 26, 2017 The companies are in talks for CVS Healthcare (CVS) to acquire Aetna (AET) for more than $200 per share, a deal that would value the insurer at more than $66 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the issue. CFRA Research analyst Joseph Agnese said in a Thursday note that the potential deal would make strategic sense because it would help CVS incentivize Aetna's 23 million health plan participants to use the CVS/Caremark mail order prescription system and shop at the pharmacy company's retail stores. The transaction would also eliminate any risk that CVS could lose Aetna's business, which contributed 11.2% of CVS' consolidated net revenues in 2016, Agnese wrote. Any acquisition agreement involving the companies would add another deal to the corporate combinations that have emerged in the healthcare industry in recent years. Aetna in 2015 agreed to acquire rival health insurer Humana as part of a deal initially valued at $37 billion but abandoned the transaction in February amid antitrust concerns raised by the Obama administration. The company in June announced plans to shift its headquarters from Hartford, Conn. to New York City. CVS and Caremark Rx closed a $21 billion merger of equals in 2007. In a bid to cope with slower sales, CVS more recently has moved deeper into health care, offering vaccinations by pharmacists and helping customers deal with asthma and other ailments. |
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 26, 2017 20:16:10 GMT -5
Is this right? "There’s $300 million in cash insulin sales in this country, where people are paying several hundred dollars a month just for their insulin." Seems like he meant to say billion? It is not 300 Billion either. That would be an average of $1000 cash insulin sales for every man women and child in the United States. When you filter out non PWD's, type twos not using insulin, those on insurance, medicare and mediaid, 300 Million looks far more reasonable. For the US market:- Eli Lily's Humalog revenue in 2016 was $2.8Bn. Alarmingly Humalin (Regular) insulin was $1.6Bn. I was really shocked by the size of the Humalin market. My guess would be that Novo Nordisk's Novolog revenue would be slightly less. Sanofi's Apidra revenue is a rounding error at about $125M. If I had to guess the US RAA market I would put it at about $5.5Bn. That's revenue to the manufacturer. |
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Post by lakers on Oct 26, 2017 23:46:10 GMT -5
What CVS' acquisition of Aetna could mean for shoppers, patients www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2017/10/26/cvs-buying-aetna-heres-what-could-mean-shoppers-and-patients/805202001/An important part of CVS' business is CVS Caremark, the prescription benefit management subsidiary of CVS Health. Prescription benefit management companies work with insurers to decide which drugs are most beneficial and cost efficient. They also negotiate discounts from drug manufacturers. Currently, CVS Caremark has expertise and access to customers’ pharmaceutical information and medical needs, so it makes sense that the company would want to expand that to include not just pharmacy but full health care, says Mohamed Jalloh,a spokesman for the American Pharmacists Association. “It could be that they’re trying to expand their service and extend the pharmacy insurance benefit to insuring everything,” said Jalloh. Agnese says don't expect the deep discounts, but he adds that "the more (CVS) is purchasing, the better the deals they'll be able to get (from drug companies)." Research by Leemore Dafny at the Harvard Business School found that consolidation in the private health insurance industry has often led to premium increases even though the insurers with larger local market share were able to obtain lower prices. The merger wouldn’t likely save much money for consumers, in the opinion of Aaron Katz, an expert on health policy at the University of Washington’s school of public health. That doesn't’ mean it wouldn’t save money for the companies. “Larger entities tend to be tougher negotiators over price and contracts,” said Katz. |
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Post by boca1girl on Oct 27, 2017 9:39:05 GMT -5
My opinion is that they are waiting until they can get close to the best price possible. I'm assuming that the close of the market is used for the 3-day average? Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume Oct 26, 2017 3.38 3.50 3.24 3.45 3.45 1,660,201 (still open of course) Oct 25, 2017 3.64 3.75 3.38 3.41 3.41 6,583,700 Oct 24, 2017 3.65 3.84 3.34 3.61 3.61 13,300,400 Oct 23, 2017 4.21 4.25 3.70 3.70 3.70 9,517,700 If today closes at 3.40, then that would knock 10 cents/share off of a 3 million share purchase. Essentially allowing them to purchase another 100k shares for the same amount. I think they'll wait until the end of today at least. If it's a 3-day continuous average, then they will also wait until the end of today, as on monday the PPS spent most of the day around $4.00, and only dropped hard at the end of the day. I thought I read they are using VWAP So IF Deerfield decides to convert $10m of debt to shares today (thinking that the stock price isn’t going lower), what do ya’ll think will happen to the stock price? Will it be a negative because of dilution, or a relief because it is over and a sign of confidence by Deerfield? Would your opinion change if they only converted a portion of the $10m? i’m just wondering if we have put in the floor at $3.25. So far today, the increase in new scripts hasn’t helped |
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Post by cjc04 on Oct 27, 2017 9:59:01 GMT -5
I thought I read they are using VWAP So IF Deerfield decides to convert $10m of debt to shares today (thinking that the stock price isn’t going lower), what do ya’ll think will happen to the stock price? Will it be a negative because of dilution, or a relief because it is over and a sign of confidence by Deerfield? Would your opinion change if they only converted a portion of the $10m? i’m just wondering if we have put in the floor at $3.25. So far today, the increase in new scripts hasn’t helped I'm confused how this conversation got to Deerfield converting today. I understand an example was laid out, but it seems to me Deerfield has until Jan 15 to convert and that's IF they decide they want to at all vs. just demanding $10mil in cash.... seems to me they want to see things play out over the next couple months, or they would've just converted in the deal now. People are calling for $3.25 as the floor because of their conversion deal, but I'm hoping $3.25 isn't a ceiling until Jan 15th. |
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 27, 2017 9:59:22 GMT -5
Bocagirl, I'd view it as very positive if Deerfield converted, whenever that may be, but today would be fine. Not sure when the market will find out, and that news should be positively received by the market, but won't be a big mover. Unless scripts were to increase dramatically, I'm pretty sure they play a next to nothing roll in the share price. If we start getting into the 600 and 700's before too long, then, I think that may put a very solid base under us. Until then, we're on quicksand.
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Post by wmdhunt on Oct 27, 2017 11:27:26 GMT -5
I do think, however, that CVS acquisitions of insurers could further approvals of formularies in this connection that could boost Afrezza adoption and availability since the incentive for the "CVS group", i.e. insurer and pharmacy could be significant.
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Post by boca1girl on Oct 27, 2017 12:13:45 GMT -5
Bocagirl, I'd view it as very positive if Deerfield converted, whenever that may be, but today would be fine. Not sure when the market will find out, and that news should be positively received by the market, but won't be a big mover. Unless scripts were to increase dramatically, I'm pretty sure they play a next to nothing roll in the share price. If we start getting into the 600 and 700's before too long, then, I think that may put a very solid base under us. Until then, we're on quicksand. Agree with you for the most part, except for the “quick sand”. We are not standing on granite either, more like sandstone. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 27, 2017 12:34:16 GMT -5
Bocagirl, I'd view it as very positive if Deerfield converted, whenever that may be, but today would be fine. Not sure when the market will find out, and that news should be positively received by the market, but won't be a big mover. Unless scripts were to increase dramatically, I'm pretty sure they play a next to nothing roll in the share price. If we start getting into the 600 and 700's before too long, then, I think that may put a very solid base under us. Until then, we're on quicksand. Agree with you for the most part, except for the “quick sand”. We are not standing on granite either, more like sandstone. Gotta watch out for sinkholes when you're on sandstone. Bet there are a lot more pics on the internet of houses swallowed by sinkholes than by quick sand. |
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Post by boca1girl on Oct 27, 2017 12:53:20 GMT -5
Agree with you for the most part, except for the “quick sand”. We are not standing on granite either, more like sandstone. Gotta watch out for sinkholes when you're on sandstone. Bet there are a lot more pics on the internet of houses swallowed by sinkholes than by quick sand. I think you maybe thinking of limestone. That’s why we have so many sink holes in Florida. In either regard, currently we are not on solid ground but hope we will be sometime in the near future. |
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Post by jred on Oct 27, 2017 13:22:39 GMT -5
IMO the purpose of the latest Deerfield amendment was an agreed attempt to eventually convert the debt to shares, but I would guess they haven't done it yet. The only exception would be if the stock price is below 3.25 at the January deadline. Deerfield is guaranteed it's $10M payment - MNKD had to put the money in escrow. If Deerfield only wanted the cash there would be no need for the amendment - Deerfield could have demanded the $10M instead of putting it in escrow. I don't have any insight into Deerfield's thoughts of MNKD beyond what others have speculated, but there is optionality value in the terms that benefit Deerfield. Worst case they're guaranteed $10M cash - they won't do any conversion that would net them less. How do they do better? - Inserting my long biased theory here  - - If Deerfield felt (or had some insight) that MNKD stock price would go up significantly within any 3 day period between now and Jan 15,2018 they could collect stock worth considerably more. Using recent price action as an example - MNKD's VWAP on 10/3 2.71 on 10/4 3.36 on 10/5 5.04 3 day AVG 3.70 - So on day 4 Deerfield elects to convert debt payment to shares. $10M / 3.70 avg yields 2,702,702 shares. In my example MNKD closed at 5.03 on day 4 meaning shares were worth $13.6M. Terms like this are not uncommon in convertible securities like convertible preferreds or warrants, so they aren't doing anything way outside the norm. Holders (like Deerfield is in this case) will usually find a window to exercise the conversion into shares that benefit them. MNKD hopefully gets the cash liability settled with shares and Deerfield has possible upside - especially if they feel there is a potential significant upside move within a 3 day period in the window. (Like maybe around Nov 7? - Sorry couldn't help myself.) One last note - the amendment lets Deerfield do this for up to 4,000,000 shares on conversion. The first $10M worth goes to the October payment, but if they do more it would go against future principal payments. |
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Post by casualinvestor on Oct 27, 2017 15:14:20 GMT -5
I'm running on the assumption that Deerfield plans to get shares rather than the $10 million payment, unless something drastic changes. This gives Deerfield a nice security net. If on monday the PPS skyrockets, they still get the vwap from wed/thurs/friday. If on monday the PPS drops a bit, they can afford to wait another day. Ditto for next tues/wed/etc. They're not pulling the trigger until the PPS rises significantly. I'd expect there to be a run-up to mondays meeting. I also was interested by this: At some point, the outstanding shares will be equal to the authorized shares (140 million), limiting Deerfield to 14 million shares, which they will hit with this agreement. Managed to come up with that number in another thread...without a calculator even! I guess that means no more stock-to-debt exchanges with Deerfield All of this probably falls into the "Duh" category for people who know how corporate finance works, but us computer geeks have to figure it out |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 27, 2017 15:20:22 GMT -5
I'm running on the assumption that Deerfield plans to get shares rather than the $10 million payment, unless something drastic changes. This gives Deerfield a nice security net. If on monday the PPS skyrockets, they still get the vwap from wed/thurs/friday. If on monday the PPS drops a bit, they can afford to wait another day. Ditto for next tues/wed/etc. They're not pulling the trigger until the PPS rises significantly. I'd expect there to be a run-up to mondays meeting.I also was interested by this: At some point, the outstanding shares will be equal to the authorized shares (140 million), limiting Deerfield to 14 million shares, which they will hit with this agreement. Managed to come up with that number in another thread...without a calculator even! I guess that means no more stock-to-debt exchanges with Deerfield All of this probably falls into the "Duh" category for people who know how corporate finance works, but us computer geeks have to figure it out It seems part of what we'll get Monday Nov 7 is moving guidance for 2H2017 revenue down. I suspect this would set up a hard context for share price strength going into the call. Perhaps this will be "short the rumor, buy the news" however, if the revision down still indicates some acceleration of scripts. |
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