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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 8, 2017 16:15:09 GMT -5
DBC, I think you're getting a little too worked up about being kept "In the dark". MNKD can't tell small shareholders their plans, because that amounts to telling EVERYONE their plans. And there are legal, as well a common sense, reasons why they can't do that. Do I think that 100% dilution is too much? Yes, I think 33-50% would have been much more prudent. And IMO doing it in 3 months would have been smarter than right now. You've posted about how ~18% (25m shares) is enough in your mind. Do you think that laziness is why they went with 100%? IE, voting for a raise is a pain in the ass, so they'll just arbitrarily double/quintuple what they think the'll need for the coming year...that way they don't have to do it again next year? That doesn't sound like MNKD's management. Do you think MNKD management is just randomly stupid? Hopefully not. So...there's a reason why they need a large authorized share increase, beyond wanting to raise $400-$800 million (PPS dependent) and be walking around with a fat bankroll. And there's a reason why they need it sooner rather than later. Acquisition/partnerships are one possible answer. With whom? And advertising push + more runway is another obvious answer but I don't think it fits the timeframe requirements. Results from their regional test ads are not in yet. R & D on another pipeline added to the above could be another reason, but why wouldn't they just say that There are legal reasons they can't selectively reveal info to some investors but not others. If they are keeping only "small investors" in the dark then rather than too worked up, I think I'm not worked up enough. They are asking us to vote on this. If they can't explain a reason for needing the extraordinary move of doubling authorized shares, they shouldn't expect investors to vote for it. Plain and simple. I would think that common sense. If there is a legal reason where they couldn't explain how the capital structure will roughly unfold over the next few years, please explain that to me... I do not at all see any legal constraints on that. Perhaps you know some law I don't.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 8, 2017 16:21:58 GMT -5
It's interesting of numerous people that whole heatedly support 140M... not a single person has answered my question as to whether they would have any upper threshold of number of shares they would support. I guess that means lots would be happy giving management a blank check... after all "who knows" how much dilution they will need. Apparently we don't feel management should have any insight into it at this point. We can hope it's 10% dilution but heck if it's 5 times, that's cool, because we can't expect them to have that much of a plan at this point. "Who knows"
I guess that about sums up what we're faced with in the vote... a big "who knows" from management.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 8, 2017 17:18:47 GMT -5
If I may, can I provide a scenario that could (I mean could) have a very positive effect on the price of any number of shares that could be offered say in March of next year or sooner? First, what if the STAT study of 60 participants shows unequivocally that Afrezza kept the 30 subjects assigned to this arm in normal range during the period following any meal 95% more of the time than Lispro? 75% or even 50% of the time over Lispro? Could that impact the share's value? Secondly, what if in four weeks the Afrezza group was able to lower their HbA1c by .5 or more where Lispro could not achieve even a .1? Could that impact the share's value? Thirdly, what if insurers input to the STAT study was this simple: if you can show us those kinds of disruptive results in a controlled clinical trial and within a 4 week period (virtually unheard of), we should be able to see our way to removing pre-authorization but you'll still need to convince the MDs to prescribe it and we're keeping it at a level 3/4. What then? Have you really delved deep into the STAT study and what could come out of it? That is why Mike is so adamant about it's completion and reporting of results. So, as this authorization vote is scheduled for approx. mid December, I would not rule out a well timed press release of preliminary results. I can't say it will happen but I would not rule it out. In my view, Mike already knows what the data looks like. He said he could not wait until all of the data is in so he could see what the final results look like. He did not say he knew or didn't know what they look like as of yesterday's call. I suspect he knows it is looking extremely positive and so does Kent. I realize this is all conjecture at this point but I have my suspicions and am entitled to them. Far fetched, no need to go there.
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Post by lakers on Nov 8, 2017 17:24:11 GMT -5
Let the Flop, Turn, and River unfold after 12/13/17. Mgmt only needs to persuade Mann Foundation and Dr. D to approve 140M shares. They are probably privy to details of the followings before they will vote fore. Mgmt also informs small investors via proxy material to satisfy Reg FD. establishing strategic relationships with other companies [partnership with equity stake in Mnkd] Next in MC's checklist: ME+India Can Mex China Poison Pill. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/6408/mnkd-state-union?page=21#ixzz4xsh7TcsS
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 8, 2017 17:26:08 GMT -5
babaoriley ... I'm really surprised there aren't others upset about it. Management is asking for permission to hand half of the my assets in the company over to someone else without first telling me anything about why or when. MNKD hasn't earned that. I own Apple. If Tim Cook asked for a vote to double the number of authorized shares, I'd think "wow, that is amazing that he thinks he could use that many more shares for something productive" but I'd also think "but he's made me a heck of a lot of money and sure knows what he's doing, so who am I to question". I am considering the situation the company finds themselves in. It is a situation where they should not feel the right to put shareholders in the position of needing to vote to authorize 140M new shares not knowing whether it will be sold before the end of the year at $1 a share or largely unused for years. So I guess the answer to my question is that for you it really would not matter how many shares they would have us authorize... sky is the limit? The situation is bad so they should be given complete freedom to arbitrarily dilute without needing to come back for approval. I guess in theory the BoD could even ask for carte blanche. Honestly, DBC, I think you're missing the big picture here. I would not care much if they wanted to authorize 500,000,000 shares. It's not whether you trust management or not, it's not that simple. It's a continuum, and I put trusting Mike (I've said before, I don't think I'd care much for the man personally) and the remaining management well toward the trustworthy end of that continuum. That could change at any time, plus or minus, of course. But from what I've seen, the guy is a dynamo who is sharp and driven to succeed. So far, I like the guy who is the new CCO (Pat), thought he was great on the presentation yesterday, even though the refill stuff was a bit hocus-pocusly for my taste. If Mike deems it necessary to raise money, I'm fine with it. If a disproportionate share is going into management's pockets without commensurate improvement in the business then I'm not. Or would you like to announce one of these additionally authorizations every four months or so and have the stock tank big each time?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 8, 2017 18:09:33 GMT -5
babaoriley... thanks for at least providing an answer to my question... 500M in my mind would basically be carte blanche. For me the big picture is that the company should need to seek existing shareholder approval to transfer asset ownership rights from us to new investors (or to employees or management)... and once that permission has been given for a certain percent of the asset rights (as represented by authorized shares) we as shareholders largely don't have any say in it. So big picture, if we as shareholders approve 140M now, we may not be comfortable with it or think it will happen, but we should be prepared to accept that we could lose half of our ownership rights in the company for an amount of money that wouldn't even make it to profitability. Given that it wasn't long ago we were sub $1 dollar that certainly can't be ruled out again especially if we are falling and it begins to look necessary to place 140M into the market. It doesn't seem unreasonable to contemplate this might not be the last authorization they request. That for me is the big picture. But it sounds as if you are confident enough in a spectacular future that you don't mind whether our share of the company is cut be half or cut by 80% as long as you feel management isn't benefiting themselves... though I'm pretty certain if we do have a massive dilution, the board would approve hefty increases to the options given management to "make them whole" because they'd argue it has to be done for "retention"... that's just standard operating procedure. Heck if they said they'd freeze managements level of options where they are today, I might even vote yes for doubling shares.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 8, 2017 18:41:31 GMT -5
babaoriley ... thanks for at least providing an answer to my question... 500M in my mind would basically be carte blanche. For me the big picture is that the company should need to seek existing shareholder approval to transfer asset ownership rights from us to new investors (or to employees or management)... and once that permission has been given for a certain percent of the asset rights (as represented by authorized shares) we as shareholders largely don't have any say in it. So big picture, if we as shareholders approve 140M now, we may not be comfortable with it or think it will happen, but we should be prepared to accept that we could lose half of our ownership rights in the company for an amount of money that wouldn't even make it to profitability. Given that it wasn't long ago we were sub $1 dollar that certainly can't be ruled out again especially if we are falling and it begins to look necessary to place 140M into the market. It doesn't seem unreasonable to contemplate this might not be the last authorization they request. That for me is the big picture. But it sounds as if you are confident enough in a spectacular future that you don't mind whether our share of the company is cut be half or cut by 80% as long as you feel management isn't benefiting themselves... though I'm pretty certain if we do have a massive dilution, the board would approve hefty increases to the options given management to "make them whole" because they'd argue it has to be done for "retention"... that's just standard operating procedure. Heck if they said they'd freeze managements level of options where they are today, I might even vote yes for doubling shares. Ha, DBC, you also need a hearing aid - badly!! What I'm confident of is that Mike and team are trying hard to succeed. It's still uphill, lots of forces pulling against, both business-wise and share price-wise. Things that have occurred over the last month and a half are more good than bad. One very large break (an Oprah or the like get behind us and push), or a series of small breaks and we likely will be fine. In order to balance the cosmic balance sheet, we're still owed quite a few more good breaks! Sometimes, you just end up on the short end. No one knows for sure (or even nearly for sure), regardless of whatever you may read here!
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Post by bundy on Nov 8, 2017 19:29:03 GMT -5
I’m not jumping for joy that they had to resort to 140 but I’m just trying to keep a positive outlook to it. As for thresholds of number of shares I would support I guess I’m just trying to deal with what actually transpired instead of a magic number I would or wouldn’t be ok with. I’ve only been in this for 3years so I understand some other’s points of views are different.
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Post by sayhey24 on Nov 8, 2017 19:31:40 GMT -5
I think MannKind needs the shares to raise cash (yes massive dilution) because they are about to embark on a “balls to the wall” marketing campaign. That’s the only thing that makes sense with the information we received on the CC. -x- I’ve called the marketing efforts before “half assed” and correctly so. With the improved Label they can now find out if Afrezza will sink or swim. By March we should know if Afrezza is going to become a billion dollar business, or become a diabetes historical footnote. I think MannKind has realized that Afrezza all they have, and if Afrezza remains a niche product MannKind won’t survive. So, they’re betting the house today... I sure hope before they do this balls to the wall campaign they have the educational infrastructure lined up to support it. I participated in a diabetes event today. Education level was minimally a BS, lots of Masters and more than a few piled hip deep. Hundreds of people maybe closer to 1000. The big take away from my team was not one of all the people we talked with ever heard of afrezza and we talked with a boat load. This included the medical staff supporting the event prior to the doors being opened. To turn this ship around through a TV ad campaign is going to take a huge sustained effort. In many cases I don't think these PWDs are going to be able to watch the TV commercial, go to the PCP and just get their script let alone "ride the bike". I am starting to think MNKD would be better off taking most of that money, setting up their own version of VDex and run radio ads in the areas they have clinics. If each clinic can write 100 new scripts a week and you have 100 clinics maybe they can declare victory. If VDex is really getting the 90% refill rate this model needs to be replicated. To be honest, I was shocked how little all the long time PWDs which I talked with today knew. What was not surprising but sad were the stories I was told about their interaction with their doctors.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 8, 2017 19:51:21 GMT -5
Sayhey, I've never given up on the sandwich board idea! Or maybe someone driving through town with a loudspeaker mounted on the top of their cars, "Diabetics, we have the answer, go to VDEX at 777 S. Broadway and see the future." Radio's fine, too, and much cheaper.
Seanmorris or sayhey, what level of Rx's per week would be the top end of a niche drug for you?
"If each clinic can write 100 new scripts a week and you have 100 clinics maybe they can declare victory." Gosh, 10,000 NRx per week, and "maybe" they can declare victory???
If we can get to about 1,000 NRx/week, with decent retention (insurance!), I think that would be sufficient kindling for the fire to endure and thrive. Now, you'd have enough users to spread the word.
What you say about no one at your event knowing about Afrezza is pretty unbelievable, and I wouldn't believe it from many here, but you're a straight shooter. I mean, WTF, that's incredible.
But we all know about those great Subaru commercials (Butch the dog that keeps growling at the boyfriend) and the grandpa and grandson going surfing ("tell grandma you were goin' fishin' again, grandpa?" "Maybe.") Or how about the great Geico commercials? The one with the "triangle" solo? Priceless.
We can't afford to show a commercial that often, but we don't need that much exposure. If they could come up with one fantastic commercial, it could go youtube viral. A famous (real famous) spokesperson who suffers with the disease would be a big winner. Tom Hanks has been mentioned many times, but there are surely others, but they need to be total believers, and they'll do it on the cheap and with conviction. Get this person on billboards, radio, a little TV, appearances on Ellen, Doc Oz, etc.
So long after the launch it is a tragedy that so few diabetics even know about the existence, availability and attributes of the darn drug and delivery. Sayhey, your story speaks volumes about what needs to be done (but not how to do it), but also speaks volumes about the upside if the word is ever spread effectively!
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 8, 2017 19:55:13 GMT -5
140M additional authorized shares is actually a good plan. They probably wouldn't issue any shares until after advertising starts and share price moves up ... if they issue any at all. One thing not mentioned above is that with these ads ... scripts will be on the rise and the cash burn rate WILL be going down.
We also need more cash to help fund the other technosphere products, juvenile studies, and international expansion, etc. We are at the beginning of the growth era ... and you can expect more authorized shares in the future if needed.
I will vote yes and am excited to see where we will be headed.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 8, 2017 20:10:21 GMT -5
"scripts will be on the rise and the cash burn rate WILL be going down."
Pretty sure of the first clause, not so much of the second. I think your next sentence provides the reason why: "We also need more cash to help fund the other technosphere products, juvenile studies, and international expansion, etc"
Of course if scripts rise meteorically, then, okay. But that's too much to expect with this company, it just is. But we can sure wish for it!
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Post by sayhey24 on Nov 8, 2017 20:17:58 GMT -5
10,000 is a niche drug in this market. afrezza has the real potential to grab 50% of the T2 market. There are 100 million diabetics and prediabetics in the U.S. All prediabetics should be put on an early intervention program which includes afrezza. After 3 to 6 months many can be taken off afrezza and should be able to maintain a near non-diabetic time in range with diet and exercise.
The big difference with the subaru commercial is there are dealers waiting for people to walk in the door and sell them a car. When the PWD goes to the PCP they will hit the first speed bump, the doctor. Afrezza is not the ADA's 1st Step. Its not even the 2nd or 3rd. Even if they demand the script they will then hit the 2nd speed bump, the insurance coverage.
When the cell phones first came out the cell towers did not exist. afrezza is the IPhone X and the rest of the worlds is still using bag phones. IMO MNKD is going to need to build at least some of the 4G network to jump start the infrastructure. I am still holding out hope for the techs like Ondou but they seem to be moving like snails, too. Come on, what has IBM been doing with SugarIQ in the last few years?
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 8, 2017 20:40:53 GMT -5
10,000 is a niche drug in this market. afrezza has the real potential to grab 50% of the T2 market. There are 100 million diabetics and prediabetics in the U.S. All prediabetics should be put on an early intervention program which includes afrezza. After 3 to 6 months many can be taken off afrezza and should be able to maintain a near non-diabetic time in range with diet and exercise. The big difference with the subaru commercial is there are dealers waiting for people to walk in the door and sell them a car. When the PWD goes to the PCP they will hit the first speed bump, the doctor. Afrezza is not the ADA's 1st Step. Its not even the 2nd or 3rd. Even if they demand the script they will then hit the 2nd speed bump, the insurance coverage. When the cell phones first came out the cell towers did not exist. afrezza is the IPhone X and the rest of the worlds is still using bag phones. IMO MNKD is going to need to build at least some of the 4G network to jump start the infrastructure. I am still holding out hope for the techs like Ondou but they seem to be moving like snails, too. Come on, what has IBM been doing with SugarIQ in the last few years? Thanks for the response, sayhey. To be clear, you are saying 10,000 total on Afrezza would constitute nicheosity, right? I would agree with that. With respect to the Subaru commercial, the idea there is to get it in the minds of many diabetics, once that happens, they will be asking their docs about it or, better yet, for it. If only 2% know about it now, can you imagine if 20% know about it? I know most of their docs will tell them no at first, but some won't and others may eventually change their minds. It's a numbers game, and like you said there's a humongous number of diabetics out there, and I wouldn't even throw in the pre-diabetics. Make a really memorable/clever/endearing commercial, and use that to reach many, many diabetics directly (and some indirectly, through friends that love the commercial), then leverage all those people against their doctors. When you're starting from our base number of scripts now, that kind of pressure would help tremendously. Not to get us from 10,000 to 12,000, but to get us from 500 to 2,500. The first example will eventually come if we can get the second example to happen.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 8, 2017 20:50:55 GMT -5
ALL CHARTS LINKS LIKEDPause Nov. 8 at 5:16 PM NatesNotes $MNKD prolux heh - every biotech co I've ever been involved w/ that has been sitting on a gold mine has sold shares 2 help extract the gold 5 14 Nov. 8 at 5:00 PM NatesNotes $MNKD @karalathington since you seem to be new to bios, here's some quick reading on "dilution" and the sector: notwallstreet.com/looking-b... 2 22 via StockTwits for iOS Nov. 8 at 4:57 PM NatesNotes @rtmay1 @bobinator I only see "Bob's" posts when they're shared, but this post shows just how clueless he truly is re: $MNKD and biotech 3 via StockTwits for iOS Nov. 8 at 4:54 PM NatesNotes kuka @alstonarms just to clarify, it's not even a "shelf registration" - it's merely an increase in authorized shares 3 14 via StockTwits for iOS Nov. 8 at 2:02 PM NatesNotes @avrage it is SO refreshing to finally have someone else on board pointing out the obvious with regards to both $MNKD and its "bloggers" :-) 14 9 Nov. 8 at 11:31 AM NatesNotes $MNKD Hasn't let us down yet... and we're just now getting to "the good part" ;-) Glad that you're starting to see the bigger picture! Dictatorsaurus 1 Share $MNKD Mike said he always delivers and you will thank him later. Nov. 8 at 8:55 AM NatesNotes $MNKD Successful investing is all about picking up bargains when they come along... it isn't rocket science :-) hotlanta 1 Share $MNKD I'm still at a loss how Kresa and other investors paid $6/share for 10 million shares in the absence of any forthcoming news, 4 Nov. 8 at 7:22 AM NatesNotes $MNKD it's been going on for years... the good news is that they're pretty much clueless about how investing works ;-) shrode 1 Share $MNKD Sad to see such a solid company thats about to dig into the Mother Lode of Diabetics get badmouthed by a bunch of leaches. 3 Nov. 8 at 6:28 AM NatesNotes @jeromejaco aside from Kresa's piece, we don't know who bought them, no 3 via StockTwits for iOS Nov. 8 at 6:24 AM NatesNotes @jeromejaco yes - despite rumors to the the contrary, the shares were placed and money was brought in (i.e. the deal is closed)
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