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Post by otherottawaguy on Nov 29, 2017 12:50:24 GMT -5
Suspect that we will see the TRx go over 500 in the next couple of weeks, maybe 550-600 (i say this with a wince) due to commercials.
Wondering if this will be enough upward push to stave off the sellers that need to take their tax losses from our fall run up.
Suspect Jan will be a great month, as I suspect a few additions of our little gem to some larger formularies in the new year.
My guess is we see a low in DEC of somewhere in the $2.25 to 2.50 range (wincing again as I say this).
Opinions as always appreciated?
OOG
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Post by awesomo on Nov 29, 2017 12:59:11 GMT -5
My guess is the share price will take a hit regardless of how the vote turns out because either way can be spun as a negative. If it doesn't pass, "the shareholders have no confidence in the management team", if it does pass, "50% dilution coming, management is destroying current shareholders!"
Hopefully script numbers continue to improve, but unless there is a gigantic jump, it probably won't be any catalyst for movement.
But, in the end, we're at the mercy of the market makers so wherever they want it to be short term, it will be. I'll guess between $2.50 and $3.00.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 29, 2017 13:36:27 GMT -5
Suspect that we will see the TRx go over 500 in the next couple of weeks, maybe 550-600 (i say this with a wince) due to commercials. Wondering if this will be enough upward push to stave off the sellers that need to take their tax losses from our fall run up. Suspect Jan will be a great month, as I suspect a few additions of our little gem to some larger formularies in the new year. My guess is we see a low in DEC of somewhere in the $2.25 to 2.50 range (wincing again as I say this). Opinions as always appreciated? OOG I believe 2018 formularies are already out. Management made reference to talking to insurers in Jan, but that probably won't translate into changes in January. I think some PBMs/insurers update formularies twice a year so it may be summer before changes would be reflected if talks in Jan are successful. I wouldn't rule out hitting the range you predict, but I'll be a little more optimistic and say we stay in $3s range as long as scripts continue to show upward trend... though that is purely a wild guess. I certainly don't think we'll shoot up to $10 as the one guy is (or was) pushing. That seems unrealistic. |
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Post by madog365 on Nov 29, 2017 13:42:43 GMT -5
My stance is we are extremely under valued and over sold at this point in time for more reasons then i care to type out in this thread. My guess is that "the one guy" mentioned above is 100% right and we will see double digits THIS year and not next after the vote in December.
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Post by xanet on Nov 29, 2017 13:52:27 GMT -5
My stance is we are extremely under valued and over sold at this point in time for more reasons then i care to type out in this thread. My guess is that "the one guy" mentioned above is 100% right and we will see double digits THIS year and not next after the vote in December. I hope you are right, but I don't expect share price to move that fast, especially with more shares in play (referring to the recent capital raise), and the probability of future dilution. It's anyone's guess, but I would think somewhere between $2.50 and $4 if we pass the authorization, and $2 - $2.50 if we don't. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 29, 2017 13:55:40 GMT -5
My stance is we are extremely under valued and over sold at this point in time for more reasons then i care to type out in this thread. My guess is that "the one guy" mentioned above is 100% right and we will see double digits THIS year and not next after the vote in December. I'll be thrilled (possibly to the point of cardiac arrest or stroke) if you get to tell me "I told you so". I'll be less thrilled if I get to say it.  Hope I'm wrong. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 29, 2017 14:12:06 GMT -5
"I told you so" ... awww ... it didn't work!
You all shouldn't focus on share price because it will climb when everything else is in place. Right now it's scripts and revenue ... which will increase with the new ads and insurance coverage coming up SOON!
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 29, 2017 14:14:23 GMT -5
My stance is we are extremely under valued and over sold at this point in time for more reasons then i care to type out in this thread. My guess is that "the one guy" mentioned above is 100% right and we will see double digits THIS year and not next after the vote in December. "madog" - gosh, the handle says it all! Here's hoping you're all over this one! |
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Post by peppy on Nov 29, 2017 14:16:29 GMT -5
the news is out. the shares are going to be approved.
$6 by the end of the year. Price will climb back up the wedge.
these approved shares are not set to be sold or given as employment compensation yet.
I agree with OOG, scripts going up. quote: Suspect that we will see the TRx go over 500 in the next couple of weeks, maybe 550-600 (i say this with a wince) due to commercials.
In the mean time; done and results are to be announced. We know what the results will be because we can see the continuous glucose monitors. Study Comparing Prandial Insulin Aspart vs. Technosphere Insulin in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes on Multiple Daily Injections: Investigator-Initiated A Real-life Pilot Study—STAT Study (STAT)
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03143816
interesting dexcom's study with united health care.
I hope Mike C has been able to line up additional insurance coverage with the new label. 2 pediatric diabetics have been dosed. I bet they love it. I bet their mothers love it.
 here is how we know. Look where he used to set his limits.
twitter.com/hashtag/afrezza?lang=en
Bastids.
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Post by akemp3000 on Nov 29, 2017 14:16:36 GMT -5
Obviously we're all speculating so here's one more guess. Mike C has hinted that a BP partner with a much larger sales force would be attractive. This could be domestic and/or international. The one way I could see this hitting double digits this year is that following the authorization of new shares, some limited amount (say 10%?) are used to help fund such a sales partnership. While there would be a dilution component to the transaction, there would also be a very attractive sales and marketing component with the net result possibly creating a run up. I'm not predicting this, just guessing that it could be a reason for Mike C requesting new shares at this time. The balance of the shares would remain on the shelf for use in the coming years for other opportunities as he has stated.
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Post by madog365 on Nov 29, 2017 14:31:56 GMT -5
My stance is we are extremely under valued and over sold at this point in time for more reasons then i care to type out in this thread. My guess is that "the one guy" mentioned above is 100% right and we will see double digits THIS year and not next after the vote in December. I hope you are right, but I don't expect share price to move that fast, especially with more shares in play (referring to the recent capital raise), and the probability of future dilution. It's anyone's guess, but I would think somewhere between $2.50 and $4 if we pass the authorization, and $2 - $2.50 if we don't. You don't expect share price to move that fast? Are we watching the same company? The share price went from $1.85 on 9/27 to to $6.70 on 10/10 then back under $3.50 by the end of October. |
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Post by xanet on Nov 29, 2017 15:27:24 GMT -5
I hope you are right, but I don't expect share price to move that fast, especially with more shares in play (referring to the recent capital raise), and the probability of future dilution. It's anyone's guess, but I would think somewhere between $2.50 and $4 if we pass the authorization, and $2 - $2.50 if we don't. You don't expect share price to move that fast? Are we watching the same company? The share price went from $1.85 on 9/27 to to $6.70 on 10/10 then back under $3.50 by the end of October. That happened to coincide with a capital raise, so no, I don't expect it to move that fast in the short term, but I would be happy to be wrong. And I do expect share price to increase rapidly at some point, but I don't expect it in Dec. |
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Nov 29, 2017 15:49:59 GMT -5
I'm hoping for $4 range by end of December but when the results of the STAT study are released, it's $10-$15++, I believe.
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Post by casualinvestor on Nov 29, 2017 15:51:12 GMT -5
Scripts are going to drop next week due to Thanksgiving holiday. I'm also guessing some of the most recent week's improvement is from people making sure to get their script before the large eating holiday. Then we'll most likely get well over 500 TRx and $600k/week for 2-3 weeks before the xmas->new year slowdown
Which puts script flat until the vote (I'm assuming approval), and I think the PPS will mirror that or drop slightly. $2.80 - $3.25 continues for the first half of december. Market forces that drive the stock down seem to give up after we're down below $3.00 for any amount of time, and come hard when we go higher than $3.25
That gives us 1 week of trading after the vote until the holidays set in, and that's a bad timeframe for putting out good news. I'm predicting things stay flat ($3.00 - $3.25) for the rest of the year and a couple weeks into Jan. Then we should get a good PPS rise leading into the Q4 meeting if scripts keep going up.
I really *want* to predict that the label change is finally showing results from Doctors giving Afrezza a first/second chance, given the last 5 weeks of NRx. But while the NRx uptrend from the past month+ is there, it'll be another 2-3 weeks before we see if the refills trend (which follows NRx by 4-5 weeks) rises in a similar fashion.
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Post by cjc04 on Nov 29, 2017 16:33:07 GMT -5
With all the regular heavy hitters who’ve already responded to this thread, (including the guy asking the question) I can’t believe no one has even mentioned the number 1 factor influencing the share price, and will continue to do so until resolved.....
DEERFIELD ..... $3.25...... Jan 15th
Dr. D probably knows more about this company, and any potential happenings, than it’s CEO. The questions I’d like to ask.......
Why bump the $10 mil payment due only 2 1/2 months to Jan 15th? While making MNKD hold the $10 mil in cash.
Is it because they know of possible partnerships or deals that will result because of the new shares after Dec 13th?
It can’t really be just because MNKD wants to pay in shares instead of cash because they have the 4 mil shares now without needing the vote.
What ever it is, it’s pretty clear to me that Dr. D gave themselves 1 month to convert after the vote. So my guess is that we’re not going up anytime before that situation is resolved.....
I will say that $2.30 is my target low..... I’d love to see a quick drop there soon, vote goes thru, Dr D converts, and we’re off!!!!! Maybe a partnership in Q1, FDA filing, RLS update, continued rise in scripts, study results, all to keep it going.
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