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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 20:10:57 GMT -5
thekindaguyiyam... I guess I was somewhat misreading your original post, assuming you were linking your buying as potentially being somewhat less than rational. My apologies, I shouldn't assume to know that about someone else. We both agree there is large potential in Afrezza & MNKD as well as risk of loss involved. For me personally, my averaging down in the past was unwise, if not a full blown disorder. It flew in the face of anything I've read or been advised about investing. I had invested a certain amount of money based on my portfolio situation and my recognition of both the potential rewards and risk. Then, as I lost money, I started feeling compelled to put in more so as to hopefully make up the losses faster. The long term potential for Afrezza hadn't changed, nor had the risk of needing funding... it was just me repeatedly deciding to risk more, sort of like the gambler doubling down in Vegas... until I found myself having invested too much of my portfolio in MNKD. Even if we eventually turn around, I'm going through a period of my life where I'm not living as well as I might have otherwise... and with the painful situation of having much of my losses in non taxable retirement accounts and now if I do have gains they will be in a taxable account.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 20:25:29 GMT -5
Here is what I believe in a nutshell. I believe that Al Mann thought that people would flock to Afrezza because they could avoid needles and because it is a much better insulin. I also believe that he thought he could create a myriad of products based on the Technosphere delivery system (embarrassment of riches anyone?) Chris Viehbacher bought into that story but was dumped by Sanofi and along came Olivier Brandicourt who didn't buy it at all. He dropped Mannkind like a hot potato. We moved out our finance based CEO for a marketing CEO with the notion of going it alone and this is where we are today. Unfortunately the marketing guy hasn't been able to move needle much on sales despite the "in-house" sales force. We are treading water at best. Good luck to all. When Al started the development of Afrezza things were very different regarding insurance coverage. PBMs are putting far more restrictions on prescriptions than used to exist. Also, due to the delays in FDA approval, Afrezza is hitting at a time where from a business perspective PBMs will be comparing it against the prospect of cheaper biosimilar RAAs. And... medical groups and clinics have become more restrictive about contact from sales reps making them less effective in general. Times have simply changed and for the worse for a small drug company trying to fight its way into a market with entrenched competitors. The marketing guy did a pretty good job of the PIPE financing (despite the share price volatility giving dyspepsia to some of us), but the reality is that for the current "difficult" environment MNKD is still significantly underfunded. It may be that revenue growth is simply linked in a proportional manner to the amount of money spent on advertising... potentially no way around that even with the best marketing guy.
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Post by kc on Dec 19, 2017 20:50:58 GMT -5
Here is what I believe in a nutshell. I believe that Al Mann thought that people would flock to Afrezza because they could avoid needles and because it is a much better insulin. I also believe that he thought he could create a myriad of products based on the Technosphere delivery system (embarrassment of riches anyone?) Chris Viehbacher bought into that story but was dumped by Sanofi and along came Olivier Brandicourt who didn't buy it at all. He dropped Mannkind like a hot potato. We moved out our finance based CEO for a marketing CEO with the notion of going it alone and this is where we are today. Unfortunately the marketing guy hasn't been able to move needle much on sales despite the "in-house" sales force. We are treading water at best. Good luck to all. You get the lump of coal for Christmas đź‘Ť
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 19, 2017 21:01:56 GMT -5
Even with all of us together focused on this one topic I often feel alone within my own circles because I am the only one. I can completely relate:-) And know that you are not alone. I spent a half hour today on the phone with a mankind long telling him how I was going to double down if we got to a certain PPS. We talked about the catalysts coming up, we talked about how long it was taking. Not to derail this topic, but your comment about being alone within your circle reminds me (IIRC) that some months ago you were talking about getting one or more doctors (I think clients at your workplace) on-board with Afrezza, and arranging a visit by a MNKD rep to make a presentation to them, etc. What sort of uptake ever came from that? Are the people you targetted now prescribing?
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Post by brotherm1 on Dec 19, 2017 21:27:09 GMT -5
Here is what I believe in a nutshell. I believe that Al Mann thought that people would flock to Afrezza because they could avoid needles and because it is a much better insulin. I also believe that he thought he could create a myriad of products based on the Technosphere delivery system (embarrassment of riches anyone?) Chris Viehbacher bought into that story but was dumped by Sanofi and along came Olivier Brandicourt who didn't buy it at all. He dropped Mannkind like a hot potato. We moved out our finance based CEO for a marketing CEO with the notion of going it alone and this is where we are today. Unfortunately the marketing guy hasn't been able to move needle much on sales despite the "in-house" sales force. We are treading water at best. Good luck to all. “...and this is where WE are today” So after having sold all of your shares a while back you recently jumped back in sometime after this last stock offering?
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Post by pantaloons on Dec 19, 2017 21:31:44 GMT -5
Not to digress from the original topic of this thread too much, but what do you think the script #'s will need to look like this Friday in order to see a positive trend in PPS?
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Post by tingtongtung on Dec 19, 2017 21:40:49 GMT -5
Not to digress from the original topic of this thread too much, but what do you think the script #'s will need to look like this Friday in order to see a positive trend in PPS? Well... I was in a similar position last year averaging down like a clock.. Finally stopped when the financial position became month to month. I stopped for a good 10 or so months. Sold a thousand for a huge loss. Made some money when it went up after label change. Again started buying when it came back from pipe.. I expected a 10:1 RS with big dilution, again a dilution after label chg. Mike did good on both, but we have to raise 200 mil pretty soon. I don't know how.. I believe in afrezza. But, only a bigger script num will help us. Nothing else.. bigger numbver will get us a good partner, and that will lead us up.. imo Have to qualify.. I could take that loss only because I had enough profit to offset. Otherwise the losses would have been very painful. So, I'm very bullish on mnkd. I hope it will start moving up next year..
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Post by brotherm1 on Dec 19, 2017 21:54:36 GMT -5
Not to digress from the original topic of this thread too much, but what do you think the script #'s will need to look like this Friday in order to see a positive trend in PPS? Well... I was in a similar position last year averaging down like a clock.. Finally stopped when the financial position became month to month. I stopped for a good 10 or so months. Sold a thousand for a huge loss. Made some money when it went up after label change. Again started buying when it came back from pipe.. I expected a 10:1 RS with big dilution, again a dilution after label chg. Mike did good on both, but we have to raise 200 mil pretty soon. I don't know how.. I believe in afrezza. But, only a bigger script num will help us. Nothing else.. bigger numbver will get us a good partner, and that will lead us up.. imo Have to qualify.. I could take that loss only because I had enough profit to offset. Otherwise the losses would have been very painful. So, I'm very bullish on mnkd. I hope it will start moving up next year.. “...we have to raise $200 million soon.”. When is “soon” and why $200M?
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 19, 2017 22:26:17 GMT -5
Even with all of us together focused on this one topic I often feel alone within my own circles because I am the only one. I can completely relate:-) And know that you are not alone. I spent a half hour today on the phone with a mankind long telling him how I was going to double down if we got to a certain PPS. We talked about the catalysts coming up, we talked about how long it was taking. Not to derail this topic, but your comment about being alone within your circle reminds me (IIRC) that some months ago you were talking about getting one or more doctors (I think clients at your workplace) on-board with Afrezza, and arranging a visit by a MNKD rep to make a presentation to them, etc. What sort of uptake ever came from that? Are the people you targetted now prescribing? It wasn’t a mankind rep that gave the presentation. We did have mankind reps there. And someone that ate a meal and took Afrezza. Very well received. The rest I’m not at liberty to talk about yet. But when I can I think it will be a nice surprise:-)
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Post by tingtongtung on Dec 19, 2017 22:30:27 GMT -5
Well... I was in a similar position last year averaging down like a clock.. Finally stopped when the financial position became month to month. I stopped for a good 10 or so months. Sold a thousand for a huge loss. Made some money when it went up after label change. Again started buying when it came back from pipe.. I expected a 10:1 RS with big dilution, again a dilution after label chg. Mike did good on both, but we have to raise 200 mil pretty soon. I don't know how.. I believe in afrezza. But, only a bigger script num will help us. Nothing else.. bigger numbver will get us a good partner, and that will lead us up.. imo Have to qualify.. I could take that loss only because I had enough profit to offset. Otherwise the losses would have been very painful. So, I'm very bullish on mnkd. I hope it will start moving up next year.. “...we have to raise $200 million soon.”. When is “soon” and why $200M? Ads once started must be sustained and increased to get good exposure/coverage. Not talking about super bowl, which is useless. But, general ad coverage. That needs good money. 200 mil is just a ballpark. Soon because, we can't afford to get to month to month financing again.. imho
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Post by tw12 on Dec 19, 2017 22:39:15 GMT -5
Back to the original question of this thread: I have PCS, sometimes mistaken for OCD. Positive Change Syndrome. Happily holding a long position in MannKind stock is a conclusive indicator.
PCS is a very relaxing syndrome, easy to live with. Incontrovertible optimists, we look for conclusive evidence only on the positive side of things. Yes, we understand that life is utterly unpredictable, but we simply don’t let potential negatives ever distract us from enjoying potential positives.
It's a devastating syndrome for any investor, of course. We should not be allowed near a brokerage account. But once in the bluest of moons the rarest of products comes along, one that perfectly suits someone with PCS: it must work perfectly; be way out in front of competition; be 100% owned by one company; have a solid manufacturing infrastructure; have a huge market; be a repetitive purchase for the consumer; and have excellent management. Of course it helps too if it will make the world a better place.
So naturally I am 100% invested in MannKind. And even though I am down more than 80% over three years, I spend no time worrying about financing, insurance, marketing, alliances and cash flow because I wholeheartedly believe that millions of diabetics throughout the world soon will be leading happier lives as dedicated Afrezza users.
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 19, 2017 23:38:44 GMT -5
Back to the original question of this thread: I have PCS, sometimes mistaken for OCD. Positive Change Syndrome. Happily holding a long position in MannKind stock is a conclusive indicator. PCS is a very relaxing syndrome, easy to live with. Incontrovertible optimists, we look for conclusive evidence only on the positive side of things. Yes, we understand that life is utterly unpredictable, but we simply don’t let potential negatives ever distract us from enjoying potential positives. It's a devastating syndrome for any investor, of course. We should not be allowed near a brokerage account. But once in the bluest of moons the rarest of products comes along, one that perfectly suits someone with PCS: it must work perfectly; be way out in front of competition; be 100% owned by one company; have a solid manufacturing infrastructure; have a huge market; be a repetitive purchase for the consumer; and have excellent management. Of course it helps too if it will make the world a better place. So naturally I am 100% invested in MannKind. And even though I am down more than 80% over three years, I spend no time worrying about financing, insurance, marketing, alliances and cash flow because I wholeheartedly believe that millions of diabetics throughout the world soon will be leading happier lives as dedicated Afrezza users. One of the more remarkable posts I've read!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 5:51:46 GMT -5
Back to the original question of this thread: I have PCS, sometimes mistaken for OCD. Positive Change Syndrome. Happily holding a long position in MannKind stock is a conclusive indicator. PCS is a very relaxing syndrome , easy to live with. Incontrovertible optimists, we look for conclusive evidence only on the positive side of things. Yes, we understand that life is utterly unpredictable, but we simply don’t let potential negatives ever distract us from enjoying potential positives. It's a devastating syndrome for any investor, of course. We should not be allowed near a brokerage account. But once in the bluest of moons the rarest of products comes along, one that perfectly suits someone with PCS: it must work perfectly; be way out in front of competition; be 100% owned by one company; have a solid manufacturing infrastructure; have a huge market; be a repetitive purchase for the consumer; and have excellent management. Of course it helps too if it will make the world a better place. So naturally I am 100% invested in MannKind. And even though I am down more than 80% over three years, I spend no time worrying about financing, insurance, marketing, alliances and cash flow because I wholeheartedly believe that millions of diabetics throughout the world soon will be leading happier lives as dedicated Afrezza users. That's a good situation to be in as an investor... though, personally I do worry. I sure hope MNKD management and the BoD are worrying as well... someone with more control than I needs to be.
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Post by hellodolly on Dec 20, 2017 6:17:09 GMT -5
Here is what I believe in a nutshell. I believe that Al Mann thought that people would flock to Afrezza because they could avoid needles and because it is a much better insulin. I also believe that he thought he could create a myriad of products based on the Technosphere delivery system (embarrassment of riches anyone?) Chris Viehbacher bought into that story but was dumped by Sanofi and along came Olivier Brandicourt who didn't buy it at all. He dropped Mannkind like a hot potato. We moved out our finance based CEO for a marketing CEO with the notion of going it alone and this is where we are today. Unfortunately the marketing guy hasn't been able to move needle much on sales despite the "in-house" sales force. We are treading water at best. Good luck to all. While the 'marketing guy' has had measures of success, as well as, by the your use of specific labels of CEO strengths, Mike C. therefore shouldn't be capable of being a 'finance guy'. Yet, he is perfectly capable of surrounding himself with the right financing guys to push MNKD across the goal line. Whereas, the "Finance Guy" had the wherewithal to conduct routine day-to-day CFO business (as the CEO), he didn't surround himself with any proven marketing guys. THAT is the difference from "then" and "now" my friend.
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 20, 2017 7:28:21 GMT -5
Here is what I believe in a nutshell. I believe that Al Mann thought that people would flock to Afrezza because they could avoid needles and because it is a much better insulin. I also believe that he thought he could create a myriad of products based on the Technosphere delivery system (embarrassment of riches anyone?) Chris Viehbacher bought into that story but was dumped by Sanofi and along came Olivier Brandicourt who didn't buy it at all. He dropped Mannkind like a hot potato. We moved out our finance based CEO for a marketing CEO with the notion of going it alone and this is where we are today. Unfortunately the marketing guy hasn't been able to move needle much on sales despite the "in-house" sales force. We are treading water at best. Good luck to all. While the 'marketing guy' has had measures of success, as well as, by the your use of specific labels of CEO strengths, Mike C. therefore shouldn't be capable of being a 'finance guy'. Yet, he is perfectly capable of surrounding himself with the right financing guys to push MNKD across the goal line. Whereas, the "Finance Guy" had the wherewithal to conduct routine day-to-day CFO business (as the CEO), he didn't surround himself with any proven marketing guys. THAT is the difference from "then" and "now" my friend. But Dolly, didn't the finance CEO surrounded himself with the current marketing guy CEO?
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