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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Dec 19, 2017 15:49:45 GMT -5
Just curious how many here have considered yourself OCD challenged. For those of us here every day I'd think there are quite a few of us. The question is how rational is it to play against short interest after they ate your lunch prior to the R/S and then you get a second wind and jump back in. This describes me. The rundown today was like a presentation of a gourmet menu from which I could order my favorite dish: MNKD. Today I bought more @ 2.53. And keep telling my friends and family who are concerned about me that I have enough. Rationalizing that the "new" low average is around 3 bucks and once these "cards are shown" will double easily. But having been burnt to a crisp I wonder even with the confidence I have how much self discipline I have compared to the enthusiasm of what I know. So there it is. I'm 1000 shares more with less money in the bank. Foolish or Genius. I don't need the answer, support or criticism.. but wondering who else can relate. Even with all of us together focused on this one topic I often feel alone within my own circles because I am the only one. With that; I'm interested in how many others here can relate. And, if you can't relate; you may be in worse shape than Iyam! www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5bMzHqyB40
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 16:20:06 GMT -5
The averaging down disorder is one that bites many investors, not just in this stock. It can be hard to try to be rational when one has become so emotionally attached to an investment. I can relate, but I also try to be careful not to act on every impulse to try to average down. I'm waiting for something that looks like a stable bottom and even then I may chose to do another option straddle to hedge the bet.
To me it seems like one warning sign is if you really are using wishful thinking "hidden cards" to justify buys (no, I don't have any inside information, but the notion of hidden cards is simply a wish at this point with no evidence). As for an investing thesis, potential "hidden cards" cannot be disproven for any company, and yet certainly there are many that will turn out to be bad investments... more often than not hidden aces aren't there. Though your choice of the word "rationalizing" might indicate you realize it's your emotional mind playing tricks on you. I've done a lot of MNKD rationalizing myself over the years.
That Afrezza is a clinically important advancement in diabetes care... that's something that gives me confidence to hold long term and perhaps even make some additional strategic purchases (though not now). I think the risk of bankruptcy is significantly diminished, but there is still the big question of how much more dilution we'll have. Once that can more easily be predicted may be the perfect time to consider if the analytical lines up with the emotional.
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Post by kc on Dec 19, 2017 16:21:09 GMT -5
Temptation almost got me today. I have been on the 10 step program for years with MannKind.
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Post by zuegirdor on Dec 19, 2017 16:24:25 GMT -5
Temptation almost got me today. I have been on the 10 step program for years with MannKind. Wow! You are willing to take the risk of skipping two steps? I have to stick with the full 12 steps.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Dec 19, 2017 16:29:57 GMT -5
The averaging down disorder is one that bites many investors, not just in this stock. It can be hard to try to be rational when one has become so emotionally attached to an investment. I can relate, but I also try to be careful not to act on every impulse to try to average down. I'm waiting for something that looks like a stable bottom and even then I may chose to do another option straddle to hedge the bet. To me it seems like one warning sign is if you really are using wishful thinking "hidden cards" to justify buys (no, I don't have any inside information, but the notion of hidden cards is simply a wish at this point with no evidence). As for an investing thesis, potential "hidden cards" cannot be disproven for any company, and yet certainly there are many that will turn out to be bad investments... more often than not hidden aces aren't there. Though your choice of the word "rationalizing" might indicate you realize it's your emotional mind playing tricks on you. I've done a lot of MNKD rationalizing myself over the years. That Afrezza is a clinically important advancement in diabetes care... that's something that gives me confidence to hold long term and perhaps even make some additional strategic purchases (though not now). I think the risk of bankruptcy is significantly diminished, but there is still the big question of how much more dilution we'll have. Once that can more easily be predicted may be the perfect time to consider if the analytical lines up with the emotional. DBC Most of what we know is just the top of the iceberg. We know what we know but have no way of understanding what's on the Management's table. To think there is nothing there and just speculation is like saying that there are no other planets in the universe with life (which is far more speculative to me; though I can not prove that life exists somewhere else). In as much as you are here posting on this board as a contrarian; I must conclude that you too are OCD if you acknowledge it or not, otherwise we wouldn't get the quantity of your thoughts that you are so generous with. As for me; Yes I have been averaging down significantly. I see (long term) that there is nowhere to go but UP from here.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Dec 19, 2017 16:39:11 GMT -5
Just curious how many here have considered yourself OCD challenged. For those of us here every day I'd think there are quite a few of us. The question is how rational is it to play against short interest after they ate your lunch prior to the R/S and then you get a second wind and jump back in. This describes me. The rundown today was like a presentation of a gourmet menu from which I could order my favorite dish: MNKD. Today I bought more @ 2.53. And keep telling my friends and family who are concerned about me that I have enough. Rationalizing that the "new" low average is around 3 bucks and once these "cards are shown" will double easily. But having been burnt to a crisp I wonder even with the confidence I have how much self discipline I have compared to the enthusiasm of what I know. So there it is. I'm 1000 shares more with less money in the bank. Foolish or Genius. I don't need the answer, support or criticism.. but wondering who else can relate. Even with all of us together focused on this one topic I often feel alone within my own circles because I am the only one. With that; I'm interested in how many others here can relate. www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5bMzHqyB40I have 6500 expensive shares and a lot of rather worthless call options. Had the chance to get out of this pathetic stock with a minor loss and screwed it up. I do not think that I am OCD challenged but I assume that the notion to "average" your shares is one of the classic mistakes of retail investors, especially if the management plays the game of carrot. It seems as if most biotech companies in the US depend on these tactics because they need "stupid" money to get through the trials and the initial commercialization phase when they have little else to offer than a story. The market adapted and you find a lot of scavengers in this sector. It does not help if you read every article on SA etc. about that stock as you and the author do not know enough of the stock for a proper evaluation. The relevant parameters are IMO P/E and a history of earnings growth, enough cash and a proven track record of the CEO. Sometimes people said "if you just look at these metrics then biotech is not for you" and I felt challenged to look for others. But IMO that was just stupid. And stupid people get screwed. If you really suffer from OCD, my suggestion is that you get rid of all shares and your trading account and let your money rotten in a simple bank account. There are many MNKD stocks just around the corner.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Dec 19, 2017 16:46:59 GMT -5
You need to change your name from intrinsicbullish to intrinsiclybearish. I bought Sands @ 8 and sold it @ 64 at which time I heard some of the same stuff from others that you just put out now. Sell. Are you out of your friggin mind?! I'd tell you from your comment you are way beyond OCD and that it is you who should sell what you have and never look back.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 17:08:49 GMT -5
The averaging down disorder is one that bites many investors, not just in this stock. It can be hard to try to be rational when one has become so emotionally attached to an investment. I can relate, but I also try to be careful not to act on every impulse to try to average down. I'm waiting for something that looks like a stable bottom and even then I may chose to do another option straddle to hedge the bet. To me it seems like one warning sign is if you really are using wishful thinking "hidden cards" to justify buys (no, I don't have any inside information, but the notion of hidden cards is simply a wish at this point with no evidence). As for an investing thesis, potential "hidden cards" cannot be disproven for any company, and yet certainly there are many that will turn out to be bad investments... more often than not hidden aces aren't there. Though your choice of the word "rationalizing" might indicate you realize it's your emotional mind playing tricks on you. I've done a lot of MNKD rationalizing myself over the years. That Afrezza is a clinically important advancement in diabetes care... that's something that gives me confidence to hold long term and perhaps even make some additional strategic purchases (though not now). I think the risk of bankruptcy is significantly diminished, but there is still the big question of how much more dilution we'll have. Once that can more easily be predicted may be the perfect time to consider if the analytical lines up with the emotional. DBC Most of what we know is just the top of the iceberg. We know what we know but have no way of understanding what's on the Management's table. To think there is nothing there and just speculation is like saying that there are no other planets in the universe with life (which is far more speculative to me; though I can not prove that life exists somewhere else). In as much as you are here posting on this board as a contrarian; I must conclude that you too are OCD if you acknowledge it or not, otherwise we wouldn't get the quantity of your thoughts that you are so generous with. As for me; Yes I have been averaging down significantly. I see (long term) that there is nowhere to go but UP from here. True that none of us knows everything that management does. But to me going for long periods of time thinking that there is something great that management hasn't yet revealed is purely emotional. From a rationale perspective one would have to ask, if there were some deal there on the table for Mike to pick up, why in the heck has he not already done it. Afrezza sales are really suffering from lack of funding to have full coverage national sales rep team and national advertising. Of course if one is trying to rationalize then there is something to plug that hole in the story... oh, Mike's setting a trap for the shorts, or necessary to hide things from BP, or fill in the blank. And yes, there very possibly are other planets with life... but would you consider it an investment to place a bet that one will be discovered in time to fund your retirement. And if we do pick up a signal from life in the universe it will likely be from such a distant point in the past that the civilization producing it may well already be extinct... sort of like when we finally got confirmation of the UAE deal [snap, oh no he didn't] Perhaps I am OCD. I do watch the daily up and down of MNKD share price way more than any other investment I've ever had. I am now back to working as a business consultant and doing so from home. So I think part of my posting is having my brain underutilized at the moment, and discussion boards giving the illusion of human interaction. Perhaps I should start playing online chess. It seems like my views really aren't contrary to yours if you are talking about the long term prospects of MNKD and that your "no where but up" does not apply to short term. I do feel even under worst case dilution that the current share price is undervaluing the company. It seems we are only debating merits of a trading strategy such as when to be averaging down, though emotions do for many drive buying and selling decisions. [Addendum: If you have a certain amount more money that you plan to invest in MNKD and have a strategy of spreading it out over time so as to not worry about trying to catch a bottom, that may be a good strategy (It's one Nate has advocated). It's not having an amount of money in mind and constantly feeling compelled to devote more money every time we see price go down that I think is when the unhealthy aspect of OCD trading is kicking in.]
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 19, 2017 17:15:31 GMT -5
Even with all of us together focused on this one topic I often feel alone within my own circles because I am the only one.
I can completely relate:-) And know that you are not alone. I spent a half hour today on the phone with a mankind long telling him how I was going to double down if we got to a certain PPS. We talked about the catalysts coming up, we talked about how long it was taking. The pro’s and con’s. About why were compelled to talk about this every day! Lol Definitely OCD:-) But...I feel in 6 months we will be climbing, flying on air. Praising management, and grateful we hung in there!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2017 17:30:49 GMT -5
You really should be in the motivation field or a personal trainer. 😎Oh that’s right you are ! Keep us on track the road is long.
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 19, 2017 17:47:03 GMT -5
Not long ago, Mike Castagna said that we will thank him one day. While we don't know all that's in his mind or what's going on behind the scenes that led him to say this, there's been no reason to think otherwise. He has certainly led a significant company turnaround pretty quickly. The day could be getting closer than many think. While it's easy for some analysts to focus on the negative events and charts of the past, there now seems to be more reasons than ever to expect the future will be quite different and bright. Too bad those of us with OCD can't prove it...just yet.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 19, 2017 18:10:11 GMT -5
Even with all of us together focused on this one topic I often feel alone within my own circles because I am the only one. I can completely relate:-) And know that you are not alone. I spent a half hour today on the phone with a mankind long telling him how I was going to double down if we got to a certain PPS. We talked about the catalysts coming up, we talked about how long it was taking. The pro’s and con’s. About why were compelled to talk about this every day! Lol Definitely OCD:-) But... I feel in 6 months we will be climbing, flying on air. Praising management, and grateful we hung in there! For me I'm thinking more like 9 to 12 at this point. But of course making predictions is very difficult, especially about the future. I'm hoping you're right.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Dec 19, 2017 18:11:20 GMT -5
The averaging down disorder is one that bites many investors, not just in this stock. It can be hard to try to be rational when one has become so emotionally attached to an investment. I can relate, but I also try to be careful not to act on every impulse to try to average down. I'm waiting for something that looks like a stable bottom and even then I may chose to do another option straddle to hedge the bet. To me it seems like one warning sign is if you really are using wishful thinking "hidden cards" to justify buys (no, I don't have any inside information, but the notion of hidden cards is simply a wish at this point with no evidence). As for an investing thesis, potential "hidden cards" cannot be disproven for any company, and yet certainly there are many that will turn out to be bad investments... more often than not hidden aces aren't there. Though your choice of the word "rationalizing" might indicate you realize it's your emotional mind playing tricks on you. I've done a lot of MNKD rationalizing myself over the years. That Afrezza is a clinically important advancement in diabetes care... that's something that gives me confidence to hold long term and perhaps even make some additional strategic purchases (though not now). I think the risk of bankruptcy is significantly diminished, but there is still the big question of how much more dilution we'll have. Once that can more easily be predicted may be the perfect time to consider if the analytical lines up with the emotional. I don't see averaging down as a disorder unless there are no rational reasons for success and there are plenty. We are in a new phase of "showing the world" Afrezza for the first time really. Buffet, Gates, Steve Jobs, Alfred Mann and many others have known what others haven't because they were/are genius and understood the nuances of their creations well before their peers did, let alone shareholders. Would an attorney discuss what would be advantageous to his adversaries? No. My bet is life exists on other planets because the #'s of stars are so great it would be foolish to bet against that (this has nothing to do with the concept of distance and time). What is different now is after many battles and challenges, the fact that Mannkind still exists speaks to the New Board of Directors overseeing a Superior product WITHOUT NEEDLES. After countless and often baseless attacks from the usual suspects; i.e. Motley Fool & Seeking Alpha, Mannkind has finally made it to the big show finally advertising on TV and taking control of it's own sales team who are able to discuss the merits of Afrezza when before their hands were tied. This is different from any time in past. As for my mind playing tricks on me... it's not that. It's the difference between reality and illusion. Short interest with all the BS strengthens my own beliefs. Why is there a necessity to lie to make a point? While reality is Not expressed Evenly by our adversaries there is quite a lot of intelligence Here on this ProBoard which concludes that there is more going on than what is being said... and have collectively put together evidence to the contrary of what big pharma wants potential MNKD investors to be concerned about. An article a day to kill a company that some shorts enthusiastically state that we have already lost in this investment is for what purpose? If it's dead it's dead. No such BS needs be stated like from "sell" to "strong sell" to "you're stupid if you don't sell (intrinsicallyfoolish). I agree that emotion is best on the back burner. Some here see things I can't or haven't been exposed to and understand financially motivating aspects which I may not. On the other hand I may have a perspective of potential that escapes many who are just browsing for an investment without putting in much DD. I'm good with my decision today and know full well what I have to balance things out should my belief in Afrezza, Mannkind, Alfred Mann and our prized CEO be an illusion which might not manifest... but, because these concepts of superiority, demand, market demand and the stellar possibilities of Technosphere I consider this a risk worth taking. No risk = no reward.... and if you believe that then believe this: If the risk is small; so is the reward.
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Post by kc on Dec 19, 2017 18:33:28 GMT -5
Today as I was cleaning up my portfolio and eliminating some losses that I needed to sell off along with taking some gains on winners to balance. One stock that did not enter the buy/sell was MannKind as its ready to be a very positive player in 2018. I have never ever thought about not hanging on to MannKind as the fuse is lit and one day SHORTLY we will explode with some great news from Mike.
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Post by falconquest on Dec 19, 2017 19:54:57 GMT -5
Here is what I believe in a nutshell. I believe that Al Mann thought that people would flock to Afrezza because they could avoid needles and because it is a much better insulin. I also believe that he thought he could create a myriad of products based on the Technosphere delivery system (embarrassment of riches anyone?) Chris Viehbacher bought into that story but was dumped by Sanofi and along came Olivier Brandicourt who didn't buy it at all. He dropped Mannkind like a hot potato. We moved out our finance based CEO for a marketing CEO with the notion of going it alone and this is where we are today. Unfortunately the marketing guy hasn't been able to move needle much on sales despite the "in-house" sales force. We are treading water at best. Good luck to all.
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