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Post by Chris on Jun 26, 2014 15:02:47 GMT -5
I love how everyone is so confident of their price estimates. "Upon approval we go to $12". How in the world do you know that? You don't. Just like you didn't know we were going to hit 11$ a month ago in a crazy couple weeks of trading. The fact here is that NO ONE KNOWS what the share price will be on approval or not. I know what the share price will be upon approval.... Somewhere between 0.00-1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Want to bet?  |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 26, 2014 18:01:13 GMT -5
I think most take the guesses with a large grain of salt, mrhaigs. I love to guess such things, as it sharpens up your gut for the next stock and next guess that comes along. Intuition is not a horrible way to play the market. No need to write "IMO," it's obviously IMO.
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Post by biotec on Jun 26, 2014 18:43:26 GMT -5
I love how everyone is so confident of their price estimates. "Upon approval we go to $12". How in the world do you know that? You don't. Just like you didn't know we were going to hit 11$ a month ago in a crazy couple weeks of trading. The fact here is that NO ONE KNOWS what the share price will be on approval or not. I know what the share price will be upon approval.... Somewhere between 0.00-1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Want to bet? |
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Post by biotec on Jun 26, 2014 18:45:58 GMT -5
Chris, Glad you said upon approval, So its a sure bet then?
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Post by seanismorris on Jun 26, 2014 19:04:43 GMT -5
The point of the upside/ downside targets was to show that the approval event doesn't leave much for the upside (after the run up) but their is significant downside risk. (If we don't get approval, I.e more studies)
So, if someone was negative on MNKD now would be the time to be short. (I'm not sure what the shorts have been thinking the last few months)
For someone looking to start a long position in MNKD they are better off waiting until after approval, but before the partnership announcement. That way, they avoid most of the risk. And, they may be able to take advantage of -if there is a 'sell the event' mentality, and they still will capture most of the upside.
If you look at MNKD's volume, most long investors look to be on the same page and the shorts are doubling down (adding to their position).
If you look back at the positive phase 3 results (timeframe) you'll see a significant 'sell the event'. If that happens again longs should be in a position to take advantage (hold back a little amo).
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Post by mrhaigs on Jun 26, 2014 19:13:26 GMT -5
My reply to you... Again... Is how do you know there isn't a significant upside possibility? You keep saying that but have no idea.
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Post by Chris on Jun 26, 2014 20:37:24 GMT -5
Chris, Glad you said upon approval, So its a sure bet then? Haha, I was just trying to break tension building up in this thread with that comment; I guess it was a crappy joke.  But no, it's not a sure bet that Afrezza will garner FDA approval. Most likely it shall -- as various other drugs in similar standing to MNKD (3rd time submission) historically have upon a positive adcom voting... Considering Afrezza obtained an overwhelmingly positive recommendation from the Adcom - I'd say our chances are more yes than no; however the FDA does not have to follow the Adcom's vote as they serve only as a suggestion. I hope this helps: McKinsey advisors report "FDA Advisory Committee Outcomes" Out of 49 drugs recommended by Adcom, 43 were approved by FDA = 87.75% www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/dotcom/client_service/Public%20Sector/Regulatory%20excellence/FDA_advisory_committee_outcomes.ashxCheers! |
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Post by chmith27 on Jun 26, 2014 20:54:06 GMT -5
mrhaigs are you adding to your position at this pps under current circumstances?
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Post by rockyp on Jun 26, 2014 21:02:53 GMT -5
Sean brings up a good point- if someone is looking to open a long position they would be better off waiting until after approval to avoid the majority of the risk.
Ding ding ding ding ding. Winner winner chicken dinner.
That is precisely the reason why I think there is a lot of upside potential post-approval. There are a lot of folks out there with a lower risk tolerance that are currently on the sidelines that will want to jump in once that risk is gone. Also, a lot of the short position that is held as a hedge will no longer need to be held since there is less risk against which to hedge.
I think we will be pleasantly surprised by the size of the spike that comes with the approval.
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Post by mrhaigs on Jun 26, 2014 21:23:33 GMT -5
mrhaigs are you adding to your position at this pps under current circumstances? No because the bulk of my position and a fairly large one at that was done between 2-6$. I'm not selling though. The same premise could be applied to that question. Why not sell now if our max is 12$ and min 2$ Or something along those lines. Look at the crazy valuations for a bunch of crap that doesn't have anywhere near the potential we have here. All I'm saying is that none or us have any idea where this thing is going to go after approval. Maybe 12. Maybe. 16. Maybe 20. No one knows. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 26, 2014 22:14:18 GMT -5
Well, I've been kidding all along about me "guessing" where the stock's going. I actually do know... but I'm keeping it to myself!
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Post by trenddiver on Jun 27, 2014 8:55:18 GMT -5
This large short interest number is really bugging me, just because it hasn't really done anything but gone up over time. So I was wondering, is it possible that the large short position is really a result of Big Al going short against the box? I can think of a few reasons that could be the case:
1. Since a lot of Al's shares were a result of debt to equity conversion, maybe he just wanted to protect his investment - so short against the box would do that without risk or cost.
2. By going short against the box, he still controls a large number of shares and voting interest.
3. Short against the box doesnt need to be reported to the SEC.
4. Short against the box minimizes the float.
Any thoughts?
Trend
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Post by BD on Jun 27, 2014 9:38:59 GMT -5
After 8+ years of involvement with GMCR, I have a whole new perspective on what it means for a stock to have a "large short interest"... Let's just say that for a company that is legit and has a disruptive product/technology, I wouldn't sweat a large short ratio. I believe it is something like 3 short squeezes I've ridden on with GMCR before the short interest finally came down to Earth. Despite what they'd like us to think, shorts don't really always know what they're doing |
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Post by goodby1 on Jun 27, 2014 10:19:19 GMT -5
Could it be that the large short interest is simply from the many holders who want a defensive position "just in case?"
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Post by ralphm1999 on Jun 27, 2014 11:11:29 GMT -5
goodby1:
That is exactly what I have been thinking too. In fact I've considered opening a small short position to protect a portion of my investment.
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