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Post by babaoriley on Jun 23, 2014 23:17:09 GMT -5
After market close. Any guesses? Last time, it came in close to 69 million. I'm guessing slightly over 70 million, I'll say 71.5 million.
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Post by BD on Jun 24, 2014 0:14:59 GMT -5
Kinda doesn't matter, does it really? If it's up, the bigger the squeeze. If it's down, shorts are finally realizing they're fighting a losing battle. Either way, we win...
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 24, 2014 1:11:17 GMT -5
Well, I wouldn't want to see it down significantly, as that might mean that some guys are getting out too cheaply, and will affect the power of any panic squeeze that may materialize.
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Post by ashiwi on Jun 24, 2014 3:28:00 GMT -5
The stock price went from ~ $9 to $10.50 during those two weeks. So it should be interesting to see if that was some short covering or did more shorts add at $10 ish.
With available shares to short hard to come by, I would have to think that the short interest remains in the 60+ million range. If that's the case then the price escalation could be attributed to institutional and retail buying. With potential good news right around the corner we might actually be on the right side of a legitimate short squeeze. While I don't like to count my chickens before they are hatched, the next few weeks might be fun.
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 24, 2014 10:29:41 GMT -5
ashiwi, check out VRTX today and its market cap! Short was bad there!
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Post by ashiwi on Jun 24, 2014 10:58:33 GMT -5
Pretty crazy run. MNKD deserves a bigger run with approval and partner. Much bigger market for Afrezza. We might see some short covering today as they must have some fear of what could happen to them within the next 3 weeks.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 24, 2014 15:26:53 GMT -5
Short interest is up a couple hundred thousand shares according to NASDAQ web site.
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Post by bospenc on Jun 24, 2014 15:48:41 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 24, 2014 16:08:29 GMT -5
Well, I wasn't too far off. Essentially, a bunch of covering offset by new shorting. I really don't think shorting is a stupid play right now (it was at lower price levels!!). That's not the same as saying it's a smart play, but I could see someone so inclined shorting now. A rejection, a CRL, a label issue, an approval with a sell on the news effect (and and all coupled with the lies our favorite journalists will publish), all those work great for a short at $10.70 or so. If we get an approval bump and stay, say around $12, the short takes his lumps and covers. If we get approval and that starts a stampede of covering and institutional buying (of course I include rak, ashiwi, mannmade and spiro), then we go to the high teens and the latest shorts lose big!
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Post by jpg on Jun 24, 2014 16:28:46 GMT -5
The price rises and rises with an increasing short position. This is very good news. Leverage which will eventually need to be deleveraged if we get good news.
JPG
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 24, 2014 16:38:38 GMT -5
Yes, jpg, it could actually set up that rarest of all market events, a true short squeeze. Many shorts will panic, most, the biggest and most experienced and capitalized shorts, will not, they will exit in the interim between label/no-partnership-yet bashing and a partnership announcement.
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Post by jpg on Jun 24, 2014 16:56:37 GMT -5
Yes, jpg, it could actually set up that rarest of all market events, a true short squeeze. Many shorts will panic, most, the biggest and most experienced and capitalized shorts, will not, they will exit in the interim between label/no-partnership-yet bashing and a partnership announcement. I agree the popular understanding of a VW type short squeeze is rare but this is not what I am referring to. Short selling is a forward contract which is mathematically very much like borrowing at variable interest rates (but on steroids for volatile industries like biotech and with synthetic insurance products with time variables grown in to make it more complicated). Slow deleveraging produces a slow short squeeze with longer term share price support. Fast deleveraging produces a fast (and very visible) short squeeze with short term share price support. With good news which part of the spectrum of a short squeeze happens is a complicated phycological interaction between sellers, buyers and borrowers. All this to say the current set up is an excellent position for us to be in if we get good news. Leverage is now our friend. Saying the impressive leverage currently taken on MNKD is not conductive to significant price support is not mathematically sound.with good news a smart asset manager with a few million could really hurt shorts and make us all a lot of money... Hope some of the Mannkind believers exercise this option! JPG |
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Post by kc on Jun 24, 2014 20:53:05 GMT -5
You can bet this being a blood sport that there are many good money managers in the game and playing to win LONG
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Post by seanismorris on Jun 24, 2014 21:48:51 GMT -5
I'm not looking for a short squeeze happening after approval.
Being short now almost makes sense.
With approval MNKD goes to 12$
Without approval MNKD goes to 2$
Assuming approval, if shorts were smart they'd jump ship after approval.
If they stick around for the partnership announcement they'll get crushed! (Squeezed)
If the squeeze takes place after partnership we could see 20$ then a pull back to 16$
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Post by mrhaigs on Jun 26, 2014 14:53:04 GMT -5
I love how everyone is so confident of their price estimates. "Upon approval we go to $12". How in the world do you know that? You don't. Just like you didn't know we were going to hit 11$ a month ago in a crazy couple weeks of trading. The fact here is that NO ONE KNOWS what the share price will be on approval or not.
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