|
|
Post by hellodolly on Jan 10, 2018 7:10:25 GMT -5
Since we have another thread predicting partnerships and some other activity, I would like to take a quick look back at the last three years of the Trx numbers and speculate what 2018 EOY numbers could look like.
2015 - 19,604 (Sanofi Controlled) 2016 - 16,005 (Sanofi Partnership terminated Jan 2016) 2017 - 17,379 (MNKD controlled) Total - 52,988
2018 - 
So, there you have the numbers (Source: ProBoards: "Afrezza Script Counts - Symphony and IMS data").
I believe with the release of the stat study (presumably at the ADA and the positive findings), along with more DTC advertising, 'Reversed' getting more exposure on Discovery Channel this year and a host of other sources of potential news (JDRF)...I'm going to predict that this is the year we start going parabolic and double last years Trx final figure 34,758.
Anyone want to predict we double all three years 52,988 X 2 = 105,976 Trx.
Winner takes the whole enchilada going into 2019. |
|
|
|
Post by figglebird on Jan 10, 2018 7:24:59 GMT -5
108,688
|
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Jan 10, 2018 8:02:17 GMT -5
Going all in? BOLD!  |
|
|
|
Post by tchalaa on Jan 10, 2018 9:08:29 GMT -5
After the approval of Afrezza Mannkind reached a valuation of $4billion with ~350Million shares
Sanofi came in and later dumped us, pushing us to the corner, giving by the same time voice to nosayers predicting by the end of 2016 we are out of business.
Thanks to the financial engineering of Matt we had the best year ever on balance sheet. He brought Mike in for the commercialization to increase and sustain the revenue.
We tried with external outsourcing, Internal outsourcing, lately insourcing which finally gave us the best result.
Following the scripts numbers from 2015 till 2017 we draw a "V" curve and my prediction is 2018 should help us sketch a "golf stick" in numbers we will reach an average of 2175 per week -> 2175*52=113100
With 140 Million shares available at an average pps of $2 and quarterly expenditure of less than $35 Million without being at full production capacitiy, because it could be cheaper. $200 million is enough to aggressively go out there to conquer Diabete-America taking $MNKD to break-even
1 - 512
2 - 638
3 - 701
4 - 764
5 - 827
6 - 890
7 - 953
8 - 1016
9 - 1079
10 - 1142
11 - 1205
12 - 1268
13 - 1331
14 - 1394
15 - 1457
16 - 1520
17 - 1583
18 - 1646
19 - 1709
20 - 1772
21 - 1835
22 - 1898
23 - 1961
24 - 2024
25 - 2087
26 - 2150
27 - 2213
28 - 2276
29 - 2339
30 - 2402
31 - 2465
32 - 2528
33 - 2591
34 - 2654
35 - 2717
36 - 2780
37 - 2843
38 - 2906
39 - 2969
40 - 3032
41 - 3095
42 - 3158
43 - 3221
44 - 3284
45 - 3347
46 - 3410
47 - 3473
48 - 3536
49 - 3599
50 - 3662
51 - 3725
52 - 3788
I have no crystal ball, but emotion and ambition!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by casualinvestor on Jan 10, 2018 10:48:46 GMT -5
My modest forecast is for 2-3% week over week growth, which takes us from 500 TRx to 1400-2200 TRx by the end of the year. At $1400 per TRx gross (see below for why), that plays out to: Total TRx: 45,000 - 61,000 Ending Week 2018 TRx: 1400 - 2200 Ending Week 2018 Sales: $2M - $3M Note that by various metrics (scripts, units and quarterly calls) we have had slightly better than 2% week over week growth (aka 26% quarterly growth) in 2017, which is why I call this a modest forecast. Forecasting scripts is tough, because new patient NRx is only 1-month, and most long term users are 3-month. So, for example, when we get 100 new-patient NRx's, 100% retention will only translate into 33 long term patient scripts. Sorry if I repeat this a lot  , but it needs to be said a lot to push back against people saying our retention % is in the teens. Forecasting $$ is tough, because the price increase muddies our history. Now that's done with, I think $$/script will still continue to rise as people transition from new-patient to long term patient. This will continue until refills are much larger than NRx. I didn't include it above, but I see the long term $$/script stabilizing at $1300-$1800, to reflect the 3-month GoodRX price with coupon ($350 - $700 per month, depending on # of units). I just don't think we will get that 1 big thing that will make scripts skyrocket. So it will be a slog: telling people how well this product works, then getting patients and prescribers trained up on how to make it works. |
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Jan 10, 2018 11:26:00 GMT -5
My modest forecast is for 2-3% week over week growth, which takes us from 500 TRx to 1400-2200 TRx by the end of the year. At $1400 per TRx gross (see below for why), that plays out to: Total TRx: 45,000 - 61,000 Ending Week 2018 TRx: 1400 - 2200 Ending Week 2018 Sales: $2M - $3M Note that by various metrics (scripts, units and quarterly calls) we have had slightly better than 2% week over week growth (aka 26% quarterly growth) in 2017, which is why I call this a modest forecast. Forecasting scripts is tough, because new patient NRx is only 1-month, and most long term users are 3-month. So, for example, when we get 100 new-patient NRx's, 100% retention will only translate into 33 long term patient scripts. Sorry if I repeat this a lot , but it needs to be said a lot to push back against people saying our retention % is in the teens. Forecasting $$ is tough, because the price increase muddies our history. Now that's done with, I think $$/script will still continue to rise as people transition from new-patient to long term patient. This will continue until refills are much larger than NRx. I didn't include it above, but I see the long term $$/script stabilizing at $1300-$1800, to reflect the 3-month GoodRX price with coupon ($350 - $700 per month, depending on # of units). I just don't think we will get that 1 big thing that will make scripts skyrocket. So it will be a slog: telling people how well this product works, then getting patients and prescribers trained up on how to make it works. I see you're more conservative with your numbers, like me. I still think we come in closer, for all the reasons you outlined (2% WoW in 2017). Thanks for participating. I'm going to wait for more and put everyone's into a thread on this Post.
|
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Jan 10, 2018 11:27:00 GMT -5
After the approval of Afrezza Mannkind reached a valuation of $4billion with ~350Million shares Sanofi came in and later dumped us, pushing us to the corner, giving by the same time voice to nosayers predicting by the end of 2016 we are out of business. Thanks to the financial engineering of Matt we had the best year ever on balance sheet. He brought Mike in for the commercialization to increase and sustain the revenue. We tried with external outsourcing, Internal outsourcing, lately insourcing which finally gave us the best result. Following the scripts numbers from 2015 till 2017 we draw a "V" curve and my prediction is 2018 should help us sketch a "golf stick" in numbers we will reach an average of 2175 per week -> 2175*52=113100With 140 Million shares available at an average pps of $2 and quarterly expenditure of less than $35 Million without being at full production capacitiy, because it could be cheaper. $200 million is enough to aggressively go out there to conquer Diabete-America taking $MNKD to break-even 1 - 512 2 - 638 3 - 701 4 - 764 5 - 827 6 - 890 7 - 953 8 - 1016 9 - 1079 10 - 1142 11 - 1205 12 - 1268 13 - 1331 14 - 1394 15 - 1457 16 - 1520 17 - 1583 18 - 1646 19 - 1709 20 - 1772 21 - 1835 22 - 1898 23 - 1961 24 - 2024 25 - 2087 26 - 2150 27 - 2213 28 - 2276 29 - 2339 30 - 2402 31 - 2465 32 - 2528 33 - 2591 34 - 2654 35 - 2717 36 - 2780 37 - 2843 38 - 2906 39 - 2969 40 - 3032 41 - 3095 42 - 3158 43 - 3221 44 - 3284 45 - 3347 46 - 3410 47 - 3473 48 - 3536 49 - 3599 50 - 3662 51 - 3725 52 - 3788 I have no crystal ball, but emotion and ambition!!! Some of you like to think BIG. I enjoy the prediction and earnestly await for something like this to transpire. |
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Jan 10, 2018 11:42:00 GMT -5
My modest forecast is for 2-3% week over week growth, which takes us from 500 TRx to 1400-2200 TRx by the end of the year. At $1400 per TRx gross (see below for why), that plays out to: Total TRx: 45,000 - 61,000 Ending Week 2018 TRx: 1400 - 2200 Ending Week 2018 Sales: $2M - $3M Note that by various metrics (scripts, units and quarterly calls) we have had slightly better than 2% week over week growth (aka 26% quarterly growth) in 2017, which is why I call this a modest forecast. Forecasting scripts is tough, because new patient NRx is only 1-month, and most long term users are 3-month. So, for example, when we get 100 new-patient NRx's, 100% retention will only translate into 33 long term patient scripts. Sorry if I repeat this a lot , but it needs to be said a lot to push back against people saying our retention % is in the teens. Forecasting $$ is tough, because the price increase muddies our history. Now that's done with, I think $$/script will still continue to rise as people transition from new-patient to long term patient. This will continue until refills are much larger than NRx. I didn't include it above, but I see the long term $$/script stabilizing at $1300-$1800, to reflect the 3-month GoodRX price with coupon ($350 - $700 per month, depending on # of units). I just don't think we will get that 1 big thing that will make scripts skyrocket. So it will be a slog: telling people how well this product works, then getting patients and prescribers trained up on how to make it works. agree with your reasoning and predictions. My numbers are very close to yours. I am thinking we will be doing 1,500-2,000 weekly TRx, with an average per script sales around $1,500. That will translate into $2.25-3 M per week in terms of retails sales. Assuming a 50% ratio between net revenue and retail sale, that will translate into $60-75 M annual net revenue by EOY 2018. My prediction of annual TRx for 2018 is 52,000. |
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Jan 10, 2018 11:47:15 GMT -5
My prediction would be as useless as meteorology scientists predicting weather more than a week out so I'll pass but will appreciate the thread and reading what others think.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2018 12:09:08 GMT -5
My modest forecast is for 2-3% week over week growth, which takes us from 500 TRx to 1400-2200 TRx by the end of the year. At $1400 per TRx gross (see below for why), that plays out to: Total TRx: 45,000 - 61,000 Ending Week 2018 TRx: 1400 - 2200 Ending Week 2018 Sales: $2M - $3M Note that by various metrics (scripts, units and quarterly calls) we have had slightly better than 2% week over week growth (aka 26% quarterly growth) in 2017, which is why I call this a modest forecast. Forecasting scripts is tough, because new patient NRx is only 1-month, and most long term users are 3-month. So, for example, when we get 100 new-patient NRx's, 100% retention will only translate into 33 long term patient scripts. Sorry if I repeat this a lot , but it needs to be said a lot to push back against people saying our retention % is in the teens. Forecasting $$ is tough, because the price increase muddies our history. Now that's done with, I think $$/script will still continue to rise as people transition from new-patient to long term patient. This will continue until refills are much larger than NRx. I didn't include it above, but I see the long term $$/script stabilizing at $1300-$1800, to reflect the 3-month GoodRX price with coupon ($350 - $700 per month, depending on # of units). I just don't think we will get that 1 big thing that will make scripts skyrocket. So it will be a slog: telling people how well this product works, then getting patients and prescribers trained up on how to make it works. agree with your reasoning and predictions. My numbers are very close to yours. I am thinking we will be doing 1,500-2,000 weekly TRx, with an average per script sales around $1,500. That will translate into $2.25-3 M per week in terms of retails sales. Assuming a 50% ratio between net revenue and retail sale, that will translate into $60-75 M annual net revenue by EOY 2018. Anyone care to speculate on the share price if these projections hols true. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 10, 2018 12:51:14 GMT -5
After the approval of Afrezza Mannkind reached a valuation of $4billion with ~350Million shares Sanofi came in and later dumped us, pushing us to the corner, giving by the same time voice to nosayers predicting by the end of 2016 we are out of business. Thanks to the financial engineering of Matt we had the best year ever on balance sheet. He brought Mike in for the commercialization to increase and sustain the revenue. We tried with external outsourcing, Internal outsourcing, lately insourcing which finally gave us the best result. Following the scripts numbers from 2015 till 2017 we draw a "V" curve and my prediction is 2018 should help us sketch a "golf stick" in numbers we will reach an average of 2175 per week -> 2175*52=113100With 140 Million shares available at an average pps of $2 and quarterly expenditure of less than $35 Million without being at full production capacitiy, because it could be cheaper. $200 million is enough to aggressively go out there to conquer Diabete-America taking $MNKD to break-even Shares can be authorized ad infinitum, so from that perspective there is unlimited money available... though in practice availability of shares doesn't guarantee any certain amount of money, or money at all. |
|
|
|
Post by Clement on Jan 10, 2018 12:52:15 GMT -5
Start with 500 scripts for week 1. Increase each week by 5% over previous week. Sum of 52 weeks is 116,428 scripts. That's my guess.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 10, 2018 13:03:10 GMT -5
Predictions I would say should be based on some sort of analysis. At this point we really don't have information to base predictions on. It seems there are two or three very crucial things we don't know. First is what have the results been in the regions where advertising is being done... i.e. how commercially response are scripts vs money spent on advertising. One might be able to substitute script growth results from another drug with similar insurance coverage vs amount of money spent on advertising (if one was privy to that sort of data for other drugs). Of course we also don't know when we'll see meaningful increase in insurance coverage (it seems some payers only update once a year so for those we'd know that change isn't happening within the 2018 window). I'm assuming that at least first half of 2018 insurance coverage will basically be what it is now. Finally we don't know how much money MNKD will be able to devote to advertising.
Without analysis I think it's guessing. I'll wait to see what guidance management gives and how closely they came to meeting 2017 guidance... then I'll make my prediction for 2018.
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Jan 10, 2018 13:12:16 GMT -5
Predictions I would say should be based on some sort of analysis. At this point we really don't have information to base predictions on. It seems there are two or three very crucial things we don't know. First is what have the results been in the regions where advertising is being done... i.e. how commercially response are scripts vs money spent on advertising. One might be able to substitute script growth results from another drug with similar insurance coverage vs amount of money spent on advertising (if one was privy to that sort of data for other drugs). Of course we also don't know when we'll see meaningful increase in insurance coverage (it seems some payers only update once a year so for those we'd know that change isn't happening within the 2018 window). I'm assuming that at least first half of 2018 insurance coverage will basically be what it is now. Finally we don't know how much money MNKD will be able to devote to advertising. Without analysis I think it's guessing. I'll wait to see what guidance management gives and how closely they came to meeting 2017 guidance... then I'll make my prediction for 2018. Are you serious, DBC? Of course, it's guessing and it's just for fun. No one here knows WTF is going to happen, if they did, they probably would have never been in this stock in the first place (or, better yet, would have sold out when we got the approval).  |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 10, 2018 13:38:51 GMT -5
babaoriley... So what's your guess? I'd assume you'd want to participate given that it is fun to do so Though I think you might be surprised at how many people will put some faith into things that appear to be a consensus here, even when the people stating things might personally consider it no more than a WAG or fun wishful thinking... of course that is just a guess on my part
|
|
, but it needs to be said a lot to push back against people saying our retention % is in the teens.
