Post by indigodaisy on Jun 24, 2014 21:22:46 GMT -5
Today on the YMB... I believe this is the guy who so brilliantly blogged the ADCOM.
My take on short interest
matese16 •
I'd like to be clear about one thing - nobody knows nothing more than anyone else. Shorty doens't "know" anything about the FDA anymore than the longs. They are placing a bet and doing what we all do best - sticking to our respective thesis.
However, I will say - it baffles me. But, if I try I suppose I can see their point of view given that they are betting on destruction rather than betting on success. And like most things, it's easier to tear down that to build. Going with that thought process, dilution, CRL/FDA rejection or highly restricted label if it is approved, partnership not working out, balance sheet issues as it stands right now, and an untested product in the open market, the exubera experience, and the fact that the entire market for diabetes management is primarily needles with some needs being met using pills. Nowhere in there is an inhalable - yet.
So if you like going short and are looking for opportunities, I suppose I can see on the surface why shortie likes MNKD and won't let go. The adcom was just a hiccup to them. Exubera is more than a nightmare - it's the model by which all inhaled insulin products will follow. The balance sheet won't be fixed by a partnership because there is no partner in their future. MNKD will have to dilute which will seriously impact shares. The market, the docs, and the insurance companies won't accept afrezza. Patients really don't mind taking needles since they are so small now........And let's now forget the "well it happened to arna, vvus, avnr, and a whole host of other companies, so why won't it also happen to MNKD??!!
Counter? You betcha.
1. adcom speaks for itself which carries serious weight with FDA. Not an absolute of course, but.....
2. MNKD is at their 3rd FDA review. Odds are in their favor of approval.
3. BP needs a drug like afrezza.
4. partner will fix MNKD's balance sheet with payments - dilute not needed
5. the dreamboat is small and easy to use.
6. afrezza is not exubera
period
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It almost always happens - expect it!
by matese16 •
First will be a hit piece or an "analyst" downgrade going into FDA approval. Then, within seconds maybe a minute or so, here comes the million plus share dump. It'll take out those with stop losses which will help push the price down a bit more. But, here's the difference between now and the days just before adcom - more buyers than sellers, the adcom removed a lot of uncertainty, and we're within 14 trading days till the FDA approval (or sooner). Plenty of people just waiting for it to drop, even a little, so they can claim victory and jump (back) into the stock going long for the FDA approval and deal announcement. I'm not calling tops or bottoms - that's a fools game - but the price seems to be landlocked in the 10's at the moment and even with the downdrafts over the last few weeks it didn't hold it down.
Those of you waiting to jump back in - I hear you. I do it all the time. But not THIS time. Why? Step back and take a 30k foot view of the situation. We're passed the "FDA won't approve" stage. The stock was beaten down prior to adcom to really low levels given the potential afrezza has to be a game changer and a blockbuster in a growing worldwide epidemic. We're trading at about 4 billion market cap now which some claim to be high. Although it's high for other companies I don't believe it's high for MNKD given the market they are about to enter. A MC between 3 and 5 billion is very reasonable at this junction moving to 7-8 billion upon FDA approval. Details of the deal followed by initial sales will determine the MC from there. That's the bigger picture so try not to focus on today's pennies. If you're waiting you'll likely get a better entry point than this exact moment in time but what if you miss the train? Your giving up real money for pennies? Makes no sense.......Best of luck regardless of your angle
Sentiment: Strong Buy
My take on short interest
matese16 •
I'd like to be clear about one thing - nobody knows nothing more than anyone else. Shorty doens't "know" anything about the FDA anymore than the longs. They are placing a bet and doing what we all do best - sticking to our respective thesis.
However, I will say - it baffles me. But, if I try I suppose I can see their point of view given that they are betting on destruction rather than betting on success. And like most things, it's easier to tear down that to build. Going with that thought process, dilution, CRL/FDA rejection or highly restricted label if it is approved, partnership not working out, balance sheet issues as it stands right now, and an untested product in the open market, the exubera experience, and the fact that the entire market for diabetes management is primarily needles with some needs being met using pills. Nowhere in there is an inhalable - yet.
So if you like going short and are looking for opportunities, I suppose I can see on the surface why shortie likes MNKD and won't let go. The adcom was just a hiccup to them. Exubera is more than a nightmare - it's the model by which all inhaled insulin products will follow. The balance sheet won't be fixed by a partnership because there is no partner in their future. MNKD will have to dilute which will seriously impact shares. The market, the docs, and the insurance companies won't accept afrezza. Patients really don't mind taking needles since they are so small now........And let's now forget the "well it happened to arna, vvus, avnr, and a whole host of other companies, so why won't it also happen to MNKD??!!
Counter? You betcha.
1. adcom speaks for itself which carries serious weight with FDA. Not an absolute of course, but.....
2. MNKD is at their 3rd FDA review. Odds are in their favor of approval.
3. BP needs a drug like afrezza.
4. partner will fix MNKD's balance sheet with payments - dilute not needed
5. the dreamboat is small and easy to use.
6. afrezza is not exubera
period
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It almost always happens - expect it!
by matese16 •
First will be a hit piece or an "analyst" downgrade going into FDA approval. Then, within seconds maybe a minute or so, here comes the million plus share dump. It'll take out those with stop losses which will help push the price down a bit more. But, here's the difference between now and the days just before adcom - more buyers than sellers, the adcom removed a lot of uncertainty, and we're within 14 trading days till the FDA approval (or sooner). Plenty of people just waiting for it to drop, even a little, so they can claim victory and jump (back) into the stock going long for the FDA approval and deal announcement. I'm not calling tops or bottoms - that's a fools game - but the price seems to be landlocked in the 10's at the moment and even with the downdrafts over the last few weeks it didn't hold it down.
Those of you waiting to jump back in - I hear you. I do it all the time. But not THIS time. Why? Step back and take a 30k foot view of the situation. We're passed the "FDA won't approve" stage. The stock was beaten down prior to adcom to really low levels given the potential afrezza has to be a game changer and a blockbuster in a growing worldwide epidemic. We're trading at about 4 billion market cap now which some claim to be high. Although it's high for other companies I don't believe it's high for MNKD given the market they are about to enter. A MC between 3 and 5 billion is very reasonable at this junction moving to 7-8 billion upon FDA approval. Details of the deal followed by initial sales will determine the MC from there. That's the bigger picture so try not to focus on today's pennies. If you're waiting you'll likely get a better entry point than this exact moment in time but what if you miss the train? Your giving up real money for pennies? Makes no sense.......Best of luck regardless of your angle
Sentiment: Strong Buy