Me too but I'm not holding my breath. I am seriously hoping that scripts are over 500 tomorrow though.
OK, so here is my "hope" and "best case guess" as to what will (could) transpire beginning with tomorrow and on into the March Earnings Call and beyond... First my disclaimer, as i have often said "HOPE is not a strategy." Also this is a "guess" on my part and it is a "BEST CASE GUESS" at that, so I am not saying it will happen. But... if all the stars align and it will take a lot of stars (maybe even Rob Khardashien
) and you believe in miracles, and heaven knows we are due for one... So here goes...
1. Mnkd stk has been consolidating ever since sell off in Oct. I am not a chartist but as Joey is fond of saying the coil/spring is wound tight. And as Peppy will tell you we are oversold... Just waiting for news...
2. The obvious is that this price run up is due to the fact that we need to make a cash raise.
3. However, I am looking for news to come from the cc on 01.29.18. Maybe a press release on the Friday after the market closes or the Monday following before the cc.
4. What could that news be?
Will it be enough to sustain a continuation of the pps increase for a few days and/or at least a minimal downtrend after the news is announced and the cash is raised?
5. News possibilities:
a. Filing of IND for Pulmonary Hypertension Drug (Was supposed to be filed in Dec of 2017 according to MC)
b. Announcement of a partnership with Abbott (side by side booths at two major conventions) or another major pharma. (This is not a cash infusion as at current valuations mnkd would have to give up too much equity to get meaningful cash. Instead we exchange equity milestones in mnkd for slaws staff and marketing support. Witness that mnkd has been hiring sales managers but not enough sales rep to be managed by so many managers. Perhaps anticipating need to manage and have another companies sales staff report on dotted line for Afrezza.)
c. Announcement that One drop subscription model will be ready to launch by "X" date within next six months.
d. Stat study results (Not likely until ADA in June)
e. Overseas partner. (Could be but if similar to Brazil then no short term effect)
f. Further debt reorganization with Deerfield on more favorable terms to Mannkind. (I just thought this up as maybe they will look to find a way to ease debt burden now that mnkd is showing progress) Or maybe a equity fund has been shown the Stat study results and takes out Deerfield and becomes a more benevolent financial backer.
g. Receptor Life Sciences? Hmm... Anyones guess.
h. Expansion of payor coverage. If it had already happened, I am sure that someone from this Board would have already found out about it. So would have to be more of an announcement that "will be expanding coverage with X Insurance in June." Mike did say to expect news on this in January.
i. Firm projections on growth trajectory based on research reports from increased marketing efforts.
So the question now becomes, what if any of the items listed in note 5 above might be announced on Monday and if announced would they be substantive enough to have a lasting impact on an increased share price? Or is the news simply going to be announced to justify a raise in the price for that good ole pump n' dump?
Well imho, a couple of the items above could have enough substance if announced, to keep the price up somewhat or at least mitigate the eventual profit taking so that we land at a more reasonable floor that is closer to what most of us believe is the true value of mnkd. (For purposes of this discussion and because it is my opinion, I am going to say between $6 and $8)
a. IND filing: If filed and noted for fast track approval and shown the market opportunity then this could have a long term impact on increased pps. Mnkd now is not a one trick pony with just AFREZZA, which takes some of the future revenue needs/pressure off Afrezza for mnkd to break even. TS is now not just a narrowly focused application. More press/mm's will now see mnkd as a developmental company and not a small singularly focused niche insulin company. This should lead to a better valuation and higher pps floor.
b. Partnership: Nothing to say about this if Abbott or another major pharma takes equity for sales and marketing. Self explanatory to even Goldman Sacks and AF.
c. One Drop announcement; Gives us an immediate reason to expect an increase in scripts so you get it.
d. Overseas partnership: Depends on terms.
e. Expansion of payor coverage on date definite: Big deal as it also gives us a way to look forward to increased scripts in short term, if it is a payor who is a "playor." Think UHC...
So imho, as provided by the examples above, any piece of news that can allow us to see a way to better profitability (IND) and/or increase in scripts (Increased payor coverage, partnership, one drop, etc...) which is also increased profitability will have a more lasting effect on pps.
Ok so now let's say Mnkd is able to get the price up to $6 next week after announcing news on the 01.29.18.
Again my "hope" is that at $6 plus/minus .50 mnkd sells 20m shares and raises say $120m. This would theorectically be enough to get us thru at least the end of 1st Q 2019 (mnkd burns approx $30m per Q) without another cash raise and now takes this issue off the table for at least six to eight months. And as scripts increase, (as expected during this time) we would likely get sufficiently higher revenue to extend the runway beyond 12 months.
With this extended runway we now have a more positive look at dilution as opposed to previous raises which have allowed us only 4 to 6 months with everyone knowing we will need to go back to the "well" again. Conceivably, this could be the last cash raise or at least the last with any major dilution. Because during this next 12 to 18 months mnkd will need to show scirpts for AFREZZA do sell or "Houston there really is a problem."
So with the above in mind the price could stabilize and now we have the March Earnings Call. On this call MC announces we made guidance for 4th Q 17. (I am not saying he will, remember this is my hoped for best case guess).
Then based on having raised the above cash MC also gives us guidance to break-even, as I think he mentioned he would at the recent s/h's meeting. If he does and it is within 12 to 18 months then winner winner I think we have a chicken dinner (in Las Vegas!
)
After all of this, it will just be the test of time to see if we do indeed get weekly script increases and sufficient revenue to allow both Nate and Michael K to proclaim their Weegie Boards and Crystal Balls (or should I say Brass?) do work as well as they have proclaimed so far...
Cheers!!! and GLTAL's!!!!
