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Post by boytroy88 on Jan 30, 2018 15:45:32 GMT -5
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Post by Omega on Jan 30, 2018 16:08:55 GMT -5
Jason Kolbert is just still butt hurt that Maxim lost out on the Underwriting Contract to H.C. Wainwright back in October.
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Post by cjm18 on Jan 30, 2018 16:13:04 GMT -5
Nothing worth paying for. There’s a free 2 week membership. .
MannKind's stock was volatile last week (up sharply and then quickly falling back). We see no good fundamental reason for the move and believe as the company continues to spend precious cash, they are moving closer to their next dilutive raise."
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 16:32:22 GMT -5
cjm18... yes, I wouldn't pay for something that seems patently obvious... that another dilutive raise could be ahead. Hopefully everyone here is familiar with the financials that is certainly pointing in that direction.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 18:55:40 GMT -5
Working some hypotheticals:
I have been reading about the various potentials of dilution today. I obviously hope it doesn't happen but seems like a real potential. What are your thoughts? Is my math right?
Let's say that hypothetically MNKD has to dilute it's shares twice more, before taking off. Let's say that you bought in after the last dilution point, in late 2017, at 280MM outstanding shares. You purchased 100 shares of MNKD, at $2.65 share price.
Now lets say they dilute in coming months, from 280MM, increasing outstanding shares to 560MM (cutting value of your current shares in half). Then, 18 months later, they do it again; this time jumping from 560MM OS to 840MM OS (value of your original purchase is now 33%, or $88.33, if MNKD shares are still selling at $2.65). Share prices would have to reach $7.95, for you to break even, back at $265 for your 100 shares.
If this transition took 4 years from today; where do you think MNKD's stock price would be, then? If you think top side is $12; that's about 50% profit during the 4 year span. If you think it's touching $32; that's 400%.
The next question: Do you believe this company would ever dilute beyond 840MM shares? It's first dilution took us from 140MM, to 280MM; and the next potential dilution could be coming sooner than liked.
The follow up: Do you believe this company will be bought out/acquired, before they ever dilute that far? Because the buy out would likely temp bump stock prices, and your dilution would halt.
I'm personally leaning towards keeping my assets in play and picking up more as MNKD dips/dilutes. This said, the fact that script counts haven't actually risen since 2015 (arbitrary rises, but essentially stagnant), and they are living pay check to pay check ATM; it's more of a gambler's play.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 30, 2018 19:12:32 GMT -5
I am beyond hypotheticals. At some time and some time soon MNKD needs to sell product. One thing which is not a hypothetical is nothing can do what afrezza does and no one has anything in their pipelines to compete. Another thing which is not a hypothetical is the "Diabetes Community" can no longer hide behind A1c which dooms all T2 orals. Another thing which is not a hypothetical is as a T2 it is really really hard to get a hypo.
2017 was a huge step forward in Cloud CGM. Insurance companies are now looking to performance based insurance and real time monitoring and Teledoc. If Mike can't sell afrezza now he never will so it really does not matter if its 500m, 840M or 2 Zillion. Times up, he needs to close some deals. If he does that you won't need to worry about significant future dilution and the sky is the limit. If not MNKD is doomed, another 1 for 5 split or 1 for 10 split.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 19:31:07 GMT -5
It looks like they will need to hit somewhere in the range of 2,000 Trx, or $2.3MM weekly sales; to touch the $12 per share price; if they make that steam on Afrezza, alone.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 19:36:38 GMT -5
Working some hypotheticals: I have been reading about the various potentials of dilution today. I obviously hope it doesn't happen but seems like a real potential. What are your thoughts? Is my math right? Let's say that hypothetically MNKD has to dilute it's shares twice more, before taking off. Let's say that you bought in after the last dilution point, in late 2017, at 280MM outstanding shares. You purchased 100 shares of MNKD, at $2.65 share price. Now lets say they dilute in coming months, from 280MM, increasing outstanding shares to 560MM (cutting value of your current shares in half). Then, 18 months later, they do it again; this time jumping from 560MM OS to 840MM OS (value of your original purchase is now 33%, or $88.33, if MNKD shares are still selling at $2.65). Share prices would have to reach $7.95, for you to break even, back at $265 for your 100 shares. If this transition took 4 years from today; where do you think MNKD's stock price would be, then? If you think top side is $12; that's about 50% profit during the 4 year span. If you think it's touching $32; that's 400%. The next question: Do you believe this company would ever dilute beyond 840MM shares? It's first dilution took us from 140MM, to 280MM; and the next potential dilution could be coming sooner than liked. The follow up: Do you believe this company will be bought out/acquired, before they ever dilute that far? Because the buy out would likely temp bump stock prices, and your dilution would halt. I'm personally leaning towards keeping my assets in play and picking up more as MNKD dips/dilutes. This said, the fact that script counts haven't actually risen since 2015 (arbitrary rises, but essentially stagnant), and they are living pay check to pay check ATM; it's more of a gambler's play. You are confusing authorized shares with issued shares. The actual dilution only occurs when shares are issued. It may worry some investors that the authorization was so large, but others seem to not mind. I'm one of the worriers about the size, and in fact think it was a misstep to do such a large authorization at this point in time. But I think you're really getting out in left field... actually outside the ballpark if you're talking the number of shares you're speculating about. I think Mike and the BoD clearly intended this to be a one and done authorization to get them to profitability. How much of the additional 140 get issued... I would not hazard to guess. Anyone that does I think is simply blowing smoke. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 30, 2018 21:50:03 GMT -5
Wow dbc surprises me again with a thought that I also had.  Okay ... that makes 2 ! |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 3:05:54 GMT -5
Wow dbc surprises me again with a thought that I also had. Okay ... that makes 2 ! Watch yourself, the schoolyard bullies might turn on you if you say anything perceived as less than derogatory  |
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Okay ... that makes 2 !