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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 1, 2018 16:45:56 GMT -5
No, no mistake. 140M shares * $26/sh takes you in the $3-4B range, doesn't it? $140M * $2/sh = $280M market cap actual. At $26/sh there would be about 182M shares when one includes all the warrants, options and conversion rights that would be deep in the money. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 1, 2018 16:49:19 GMT -5
140 Million is the actual stock shares number.... if, and if, the company will be valued one day in the range 3-4 B$ We have to add, sure, the cost to go there. Another 30-40 Million shares minimum (number of shares needed depends by how quick revenue increase and how quick PPS move north). So that going to 3-4 B$ (actually a dream for me) We will have not a 26$ per share but something like 20$ ps Yes, one would need to add in some as well for funding. Realistically I think we end up with at least 220M shares... counting current warrants, options and conversion rights and future funding. Could well be 250M+. |
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Post by gareaudan on Jun 1, 2018 18:18:53 GMT -5
Perception is the driver and the only requirement to get to $6 or higher. The pps has been there in the past (pre-R/S) without scripts rising or approaching a break-even status. Let's hope Mike C, Dr. Kendall and team can start driving a seriously positive perception. They need a catalyst to change the perception. At this point we are 4 years after launch so there is a history and that makes it hard to change perceptions. I do not see a catalyst at the moment beyond the prospect of a near term spike around the ADA conference. Are you talking about the perception of the market towards the survival of mnkd and their habilities to make afrezza a success or the perception of the doctors towards afrezza and the science behind? This is two different things imo. I think doctors already see the benefits of afrezza. They are educated and intelligent peoples. It may just not be affortable for their patients right now du to a lack of insurance converage. On the other hand, history shows that the perception of the market can change very quickly. The catalyst is more scripts which Will come imho with better coverage |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 1, 2018 18:33:27 GMT -5
Perception is the driver and the only requirement to get to $6 or higher. The pps has been there in the past (pre-R/S) without scripts rising or approaching a break-even status. Let's hope Mike C, Dr. Kendall and team can start driving a seriously positive perception. They need a catalyst to change the perception. At this point we are 4 years after launch so there is a history and that makes it hard to change perceptions. I do not see a catalyst at the moment beyond the prospect of a near term spike around the ADA conference. Have you ever seen a change in perception when buy stops get taken out? I have  .....I would venture to say that the first buy stops are just north of where we're sitting, the second set is up at the closely watched and very popularized "SABBY" $2.38 area, when those get taken out you'll see some volatility that will get everyone's new perception IMO. It's the catalyst that no one sees that keeps things interesting. Already, both you and TD along with our other writer friend have already mentioned the "near term spike" around the ADA conference....nothing like setting up trading expectations....gee I didn't know it was an exact science and that easy, what a bunch of masterful market timers we have here. SABBY must be some entity to be able to control the trading outcome of this equity, between the comments about SABBY, the warrants, and DF I feel like I'm living the Hunt Brothers "supposed control" of the entire silver market all over again en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday ....hmm, "Silver Thursday", who knows one day we may have a "Mannkind Monday"  .....I'm not so sure I would call MK a pumper, just sayin....read the wiki on the Hunt Bros. and the Hubris they had in thinking they could control the entire silver market, seems to me some think they will continue to control the entire insulin market forever. It was "perceived" by many that the Hunt Bros. could maintain there grip until the unforeseen catalyst happened. Perceptions changed swiftly in one crazy Thursday. |
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Post by guidepost on Jun 1, 2018 18:42:58 GMT -5
140 Million is the actual stock shares number.... if, and if, the company will be valued one day in the range 3-4 B$ We have to add, sure, the cost to go there. Another 30-40 Million shares minimum (number of shares needed depends by how quick revenue increase and how quick PPS move north). So that going to 3-4 B$ (actually a dream for me) We will have not a 26$ per share but something like 20$ ps Yes, one would need to add in some as well for funding. Realistically I think we end up with at least 220M shares... counting current warrants, options and conversion rights and future funding. Could well be 250M+. Is "just" a 5-bagger not enough?! |
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 1, 2018 18:50:34 GMT -5
They need a catalyst to change the perception. At this point we are 4 years after launch so there is a history and that makes it hard to change perceptions. I do not see a catalyst at the moment beyond the prospect of a near term spike around the ADA conference. Are you talking about the perception of the market towards the survival of mnkd and their habilities to make afrezza a success or the perception of the doctors towards afrezza and the science behind? This is two different things imo. I think doctors already see the benefits of afrezza. They are educated and intelligent peoples. It may just not be affortable for their patients right now du to a lack of insurance converage. On the other hand, history shows that the perception of the market can change very quickly. The catalyst is more scripts which Will come imho with better coverage I mean the market. There has to be some event that attracts attention. That could be a couple of things; exceeding projected revenue, or a substantial foreign contract with a revenue commitment are the obvious ones. Everything gets viewed through the perspective of revenue - if it hasn't markedly increase revenue it's not going to increase the share price. That was my thought. |
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Post by gareaudan on Jun 1, 2018 18:54:57 GMT -5
Yes, one would need to add in some as well for funding. Realistically I think we end up with at least 220M shares... counting current warrants, options and conversion rights and future funding. Could well be 250M+. Is "just" a 5-bagger not enough?! i liked your post but to be fair, for many of us who bought some shares between 2013 and 2015, a 5 bagger from now dont make us come even close to braking even on those shares so its not that much. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2018 19:03:23 GMT -5
Thus while everyone has their own investment strategy, buy only what u can afford, and average down whenever possible. Is "just" a 5-bagger not enough?! i liked your post but to be fair, for many of us who bought some shares between 2013 and 2015, a 5 bagger from now dont make us come even close to braking even on those shares so its not that much. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 1, 2018 19:13:02 GMT -5
Is "just" a 5-bagger not enough?! i liked your post but to be fair, for many of us who bought some shares between 2013 and 2015, a 5 bagger from now dont make us come even close to braking even on those shares so its not that much. The sad fact of dilution. It may well be unrealistic to ever reach levels that would make all investors whole. I acquired quite a lot of options a year ago and brought my break even point down significantly. At this point I'd be thrilled with $10 and have a nice, if not huge profit. I do think ultimately there is potential to hit $12 to $16, perhaps higher if future dilution is at low end of range I think possible. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 1, 2018 19:18:47 GMT -5
They need a catalyst to change the perception. At this point we are 4 years after launch so there is a history and that makes it hard to change perceptions. I do not see a catalyst at the moment beyond the prospect of a near term spike around the ADA conference. ... Already, both you and TD along with our other writer friend have already mentioned the "near term spike" around the ADA conference....nothing like setting up trading expectations....gee I didn't know it was an exact science and that easy, what a bunch of masterful market timers we have here. SABBY must be some entity to be able to control the trading outcome of this equity... I got the last spike right and did very well thank you  Why do I think it is going to happen again? Because the manipulators need an event to hang it on. Last time is was the label change, the manipulators buy furiously, the price rises, everyone say it is because sales are going to rocket and people pile in, the manipulators sell into the spike and clean up. So I think there will be a spike, what is your prediction? I have no idea who Sabby is or what they are capable of. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2018 19:26:31 GMT -5
i liked your post but to be fair, for many of us who bought some shares between 2013 and 2015, a 5 bagger from now dont make us come even close to braking even on those shares so its not that much. The sad fact of dilution. It may well be unrealistic to ever reach levels that would make all investors whole. I acquired quite a lot of options a year ago and brought my break even point down significantly. At this point I'd be thrilled with $10 and have a nice, if not huge profit. I do think ultimately there is potential to hit $12 to $16, perhaps higher if future dilution is at low end of range I think possible. The eternal optimistic in me ponders that as Dr. Kendall thinks Afrezza is the new "gold standard" and current treatments are "barbaric". I would argue that we still have a lot of market to penetrate, not just in the US, but the world. Thus $12-$16 a share even with massive dilution, is underestimating its potential. We are patent protected for years to come. I would relate Afrezza to the first iPods. No competion no one even came close to Apple for years. That will be us. Imagine Apple without Android phones to compete with. While our market is constrained to those with diabetes, that market grows yearly, sadly. So, I conclude by saying, stay long. We never know when our time will come. |
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Post by frumenti on Jun 1, 2018 19:29:36 GMT -5
Thanks for the projected break even point for Scripts. Harry1 is projecting $3 million sales for June and at that point manufacturing gross profit should be helping reduce the monthly loss quite a bit.
If MNKD needs more cash I hope they will consider more borrowing. Why couldn't they get a loan secured by patents? They would probably have to secure the current outstanding debt with patents in order to get their cooperation. They must have been contacted about selling MNKD. Maybe those companies would consider making a loan secured by patents they probably want to own.
I was CFO of a NYSE listed company that had a 20 year record of a compound rate growth of 18% a year in earnings. The above are thoughts I would be thinking if I were CFO at MNKD and wanted a back up for my current plans. I am confident they have better options at this time.
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Post by gareaudan on Jun 1, 2018 19:37:22 GMT -5
Are you talking about the perception of the market towards the survival of mnkd and their habilities to make afrezza a success or the perception of the doctors towards afrezza and the science behind? This is two different things imo. I think doctors already see the benefits of afrezza. They are educated and intelligent peoples. It may just not be affortable for their patients right now du to a lack of insurance converage. On the other hand, history shows that the perception of the market can change very quickly. The catalyst is more scripts which Will come imho with better coverage I mean the market. There has to be some event that attracts attention. That could be a couple of things; exceeding projected revenue, or a substantial foreign contract with a revenue commitment are the obvious ones. Everything gets viewed through the perspective of revenue - if it hasn't markedly increase revenue it's not going to increase the share price. That was my thought. i agree. Money is king. Script HAVE to go up. No more time, no more excuses. After that speculative value for the rest of the pipeline may come back and rise the sp to new high. |
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Post by gareaudan on Jun 1, 2018 19:44:46 GMT -5
Thus while everyone has their own investment strategy, buy only what u can afford, and average down whenever possible. i liked your post but to be fair, for many of us who bought some shares between 2013 and 2015, a 5 bagger from now dont make us come even close to braking even on those shares so its not that much. i did averaged down...a lot...to much actually but at some point price need to go up again,otherwise all the money you put averaging down goes in the pocket of the mm or the management team. That not really my goal when investing. |
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 1, 2018 20:04:35 GMT -5
... Already, both you and TD along with our other writer friend have already mentioned the "near term spike" around the ADA conference....nothing like setting up trading expectations....gee I didn't know it was an exact science and that easy, what a bunch of masterful market timers we have here. SABBY must be some entity to be able to control the trading outcome of this equity... I got the last spike right and did very well thank you Why do I think it is going to happen again? Because the manipulators need an event to hang it on. Last time is was the label change, the manipulators buy furiously, the price rises, everyone say it is because sales are going to rocket and people pile in, the manipulators sell into the spike and clean up. So I think there will be a spike, what is your prediction? I have no idea who Sabby is or what they are capable of. Sabby is a hedge fund who recently purchased 7 millions shares and filed a 13c with only options as a trigger for the 13c report. So that means they were short 7 millions shares covered with the last financing round and they could potentially control more than 5 percent of mnkd if they exercised all their warrants. Sabby would like to make some money on these warrants. Deerfield would like to get paid on their balance of 45 million dollars lent to mnkd so they is why it looks like a run up to ada is about to happen. |
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.....I would venture to say that the first buy stops are just north of where we're sitting, the second set is up at the closely watched and very popularized "SABBY" $2.38 area, when those get taken out you'll see some volatility that will get everyone's new perception IMO. It's the catalyst that no one sees that keeps things interesting. Already, both you and TD along with our other writer friend have already mentioned the "near term spike" around the ADA conference....nothing like setting up trading expectations....gee I didn't know it was an exact science and that easy, what a bunch of masterful market timers we have here. SABBY must be some entity to be able to control the trading outcome of this equity, between the comments about SABBY, the warrants, and DF I feel like I'm living the Hunt Brothers "supposed control" of the entire silver market all over again 
.....I'm not so sure I would call MK a pumper, just sayin....read the wiki on the Hunt Bros. and the Hubris they had in thinking they could control the entire silver market, seems to me some think they will continue to control the entire insulin market forever. It was "perceived" by many that the Hunt Bros. could maintain there grip until the unforeseen catalyst happened. Perceptions changed swiftly in one crazy Thursday.
Why do I think it is going to happen again? Because the manipulators need an event to hang it on. Last time is was the label change, the manipulators buy furiously, the price rises, everyone say it is because sales are going to rocket and people pile in, the manipulators sell into the spike and clean up.