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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2018 4:11:25 GMT -5
When Al was living he always treated Afrezza as the next gold standard of diabetes care. His crowning achievment in his stories career as an inventor and businessman. Which brings me to the question, was Al unliked by other BP's? Thus making a buyout/buy in almost impossible. As he would have been unwilling to give total control to another for his namesake, Mannkind.
Which brings us to the present and 3+ years from Afrezza's initial debut. The majority of Al's management is gone, the doubts about Afrezza's efficacy have largely been put to rest, and we have Mike and co leading the way. Do these events and new faces help to bring BPs back to the negotiating table? It's ludicrous to think that no BP has interest in being part of the newest and possibly the best treatment in diabetes.
Thoughts.
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Post by boca1girl on Feb 11, 2018 7:16:08 GMT -5
I believe a partnership/buy in would have to come from a drug company NOT currently in the diabetes space. I don’t think the current players have the intention, desire, or fore-site, to canabalize their own products.
The other strong possibility comes from a substantial investment from a non-drug company or philanthropic organization that sees the future for Afrezza and improved management of diabetes world wide. I believe our technology leaders, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, or philanthropists Gates, Buffet will be our champions.
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 11, 2018 8:57:50 GMT -5
Concerning your statement - "It's ludicrous to think that no BP has interest in being part of the newest and possibly the best treatment in diabetes." They have all had interest but its a question of risk and what Al wanted for the company. afrezza is a disruptive technology.
If used first and early in T2s which is the lion's share of the BP market none of the antiglycemics are needed. Thats HUGE, 10's of $billions. 90% of the basal market is T2s and again, this market would be gone as the T2 would not progress.
Al once told me the value of MNKD was much larger than MiniMed. Its been a long haul but I still think Al was right. However, Al use to say to get a business up and going you needed 3x the money you ever thought you needed. With MNKD and all the roadblocks it might be 10x.
I have said in the past afrezza has been living rent free in the minds of every BP CEO in the diabetes space. In the case of Lilly its clearly bigger than that with Dave Kendall deciding to do more than talk. I can only imagine the discussions in the Lilly board room about afrezza. The great news is we now have someone who was in those meetings.
Actually, having Kendall join the MNKD team is shocking. If I feel that way I wonder what Brandicourt is thinking?
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Post by golfeveryday on Feb 11, 2018 9:20:16 GMT -5
Concerning your statement - "It's ludicrous to think that no BP has interest in being part of the newest and possibly the best treatment in diabetes." They have all had interest but its a question of risk and what Al wanted for the company. afrezza is a disruptive technology. If used first and early in T2s which is the lion's share of the BP market none of the antiglycemics are needed. Thats HUGE, 10's of $billions. 90% of the basal market is T2s and again, this market would be gone as the T2 would not progress. Al once told me the value of MNKD was much larger than MiniMed. Its been a long haul but I still think Al was right. However, Al use to say to get a business up and going you needed 3x the money you ever thought you needed. With MNKD and all the roadblocks it might be 10x. I have said in the past afrezza has been living rent free in the minds of every BP CEO in the diabetes space. In the case of Lilly its clearly bigger than that with Dave Kendall deciding to do more than talk. I can only imagine the discussions in the Lilly board room about afrezza. The great news is we now have someone who was in those meetings. Actually, having Kendall join the MNKD team is shocking. If I feel that way I wonder what Brandicourt is thinking? Kendall joining is some of the best MNKD ‘advertising’ we have experienced in quite some time. Many will take notice of this move - ADA, Lilly, other BP’s, Endo’s. This move put a lot of eyes on little, for now, MNKD. |
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Post by kc on Feb 11, 2018 9:37:02 GMT -5
Concerning your statement - "It's ludicrous to think that no BP has interest in being part of the newest and possibly the best treatment in diabetes." They have all had interest but its a question of risk and what Al wanted for the company. afrezza is a disruptive technology. If used first and early in T2s which is the lion's share of the BP market none of the antiglycemics are needed. Thats HUGE, 10's of $billions. 90% of the basal market is T2s and again, this market would be gone as the T2 would not progress. Al once told me the value of MNKD was much larger than MiniMed. Its been a long haul but I still think Al was right. However, Al use to say to get a business up and going you needed 3x the money you ever thought you needed. With MNKD and all the roadblocks it might be 10x. I have said in the past afrezza has been living rent free in the minds of every BP CEO in the diabetes space. In the case of Lilly its clearly bigger than that with Dave Kendall deciding to do more than talk. I can only imagine the discussions in the Lilly board room about afrezza. The great news is we now have someone who was in those meetings. Actually, having Kendall join the MNKD team is shocking. If I feel that way I wonder what Brandicourt is thinking? Sayhey, your comment is correct. Last night I posted this comment on the Kendall thread. But it’s relevant here. This was from a website of a clinic a clinic but it’s an excerpt from an article in the USA TODAY when Kendall was at ADA. www.cherrycreekbenefits.com/diabetes/Article from the USA today when he was engaged at the ADA. Previous research has suggested that the financial burden may easily double in the next 20 years, says David Kendall, chief scientific and medical officer of the??American Diabetes Association. “The financial burden is potentially a very, very troublesome one,” Kendall says. There’s a dual message here: prevention where it’s feasible, and critical and early intervention for those already diagnosed,” he says. ——————————————————————————————————- Early Intervention? Now isn’t that something that Al Mann believed Afrezza might become an early intervention drug. |
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 11, 2018 10:06:38 GMT -5
... “The financial burden is potentially a very, very troublesome one,” Kendall says. There’s a dual message here: prevention where it’s feasible, and critical and early intervention for those already diagnosed,” he says. ——————————————————————————————————- Early Intervention? Now isn’t that something that Al Mann believed Afrezza might become an early intervention drug. Escalating costs are a big concern for all health systems. Early intervention in this context means Metformin, diet, and exercise. The cost differential between insulin and Metformin precludes any other choice for early intervention. Until there is data from a couple of large scale trial there is no way insulin gets routinely used as an early intervention drug. |
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Post by matt on Feb 11, 2018 11:21:58 GMT -5
Do these events and new faces help to bring BPs back to the negotiating table? It's ludicrous to think that no BP has interest in being part of the newest and possibly the best treatment in diabetes. I have done a lot of mergers deals during a 35 year career in healthcare, and closed more than $25 billion in transactions both large and small. For every transaction I closed, I must have looked at ten other opportunities with a significant level of interest (i.e. visited the plant, did physician focus groups, dug into the detailed financials, etc.). The process is not what most people think. Big Pharma figured out some time ago that they could not be all things to all people and that it was necessary to focus. Not so long ago, it was common to see a pharma pursuing 10-12 different therapeutic areas but now 4-5 is more likely. Some older drugs from the larger portfolios may still be manufactured, but there is no new R&D taking place in the therapeutic indications that have been rationalized. In some cases, pharmas sell off the orphan assets or else they swap their orphaned products with competitors that are also trying to increase scale in their portfolio. Metabolic disease, including diabetes, is one area many pharmas have chosen to exit and I am not aware of any major pharma that has entered this segment in the past five years. For better or worse, that limits the number of companies MNKD can partner with or be acquired by. Big pharma always looks at sales force and manufacturing alignment early in the process and if the physician call point is different or if the manufacturing technology is not closely aligned with the existing infrastructure, most will not take a serious look. We know that Lilly and Novo have a strong presence in the segment, with Sanofi winding down their presence in diabetes due to patent expiration on Lantus. Sanofi is going to be out of the segment in a few more years, and a duopoly will flourish. Big Pharma is a term that gets thrown around like it is a generic category, but it isn't. There are big oncology companies, like Novartis and BMS, and there are big companies pursuing neurology and pain, like Pfizer and Glaxo, but for the most part each company drives in its own lane. Big Pharma is not interested in diabetes, Lilly and Novo are interested in diabetes while Novartis, Pfizer, and a host of others have pruned metabolic disease from their pipeline. The others who want to play in diabetes are largely generic companies (e.g. metformin), but Afrezza is not an inexpensive drug to produce or market so it doesn't fit with the generics business very well either. Unless another large company with very deep pockets decides to jump back into metabolic disease, which is extremely unlikely, then the only big players left in diabetes are Lilly and Novo, and they don't seem to have much interest. All of that might seem counterintuitive to MNKD shareholders, but if you never had the job of marketing an orphaned product around the industry then you don't appreciate how decisions are made in the board room. You have to assume that the consultants hired by MNKD to look for a deal have shaken the tree pretty hard and have come up empty. |
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Post by lennymnkd on Feb 11, 2018 11:54:21 GMT -5
Diabetes isn’t going away anytime soon , Matt you seen to be very knowledgeable about were pharma stands with this in a conventional sense , but new players are coming into the healthcare game / technology included ... my sense is business won’t be profomed in the usual manor... and BP BETTER GET THIER ACT TOGETHER.
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Post by letitride on Feb 11, 2018 11:56:39 GMT -5
If BP wont come out to play then more so than ever Mike has made the right call here, adding Dr Kendall to the team is like taking the game away from BP. If we cant have their backing we are now getting their people it will soon be them calling on us to play!
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Post by tz on Feb 11, 2018 12:15:00 GMT -5
No deal needed. With Kendall jumping in the board, Mike can significantly speed up sales. With marketing chief left on 1/26 and no TV commercials in the past 2 months, the sales is still stabilized and moving upward. That is a good sign. MNKD will have more and more options to deal with cash shortage in the coming few months.
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 11, 2018 12:28:35 GMT -5
Do these events and new faces help to bring BPs back to the negotiating table? It's ludicrous to think that no BP has interest in being part of the newest and possibly the best treatment in diabetes. [text clipped] All of that might seem counterintuitive to MNKD shareholders, but if you never had the job of marketing an orphaned product around the industry then you don't appreciate how decisions are made in the board room. You have to assume that the consultants hired by MNKD to look for a deal have shaken the tree pretty hard and have come up empty. Licensing and/or Collaboration Agreements can take over a year to put together, especially if there are contingencies like meeting primary endpoints in a phase I/II clinical trial. Mike only recently was promoted to CEO and contracted a search agency a few months after becoming CEO. It seems to me that there hasn't been sufficient time to make any assumptions that they "have come up empty".
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Post by lennymnkd on Feb 11, 2018 12:50:38 GMT -5
As crazy as it sounds ( we are just getting started)
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 11, 2018 13:11:25 GMT -5
[text clipped] All of that might seem counterintuitive to MNKD shareholders, but if you never had the job of marketing an orphaned product around the industry then you don't appreciate how decisions are made in the board room. You have to assume that the consultants hired by MNKD to look for a deal have shaken the tree pretty hard and have come up empty. Licensing and/or Collaboration Agreements can take over a year to put together, especially if there are contingencies like meeting primary endpoints in a phase I/II clinical trial. Mike only recently was promoted to CEO and contracted a search agency a few months after becoming CEO. It seems to me that there hasn't been sufficient time to make any assumptions that they "have come up empty".
Exactly mn, they were blindsided by SNY, worked on the settlement, got some lowball offers and pretty much didn’t know what to do. I don’t think there was much shaking going on:-) |
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Post by golfeveryday on Feb 11, 2018 14:08:13 GMT -5
Licensing and/or Collaboration Agreements can take over a year to put together, especially if there are contingencies like meeting primary endpoints in a phase I/II clinical trial. Mike only recently was promoted to CEO and contracted a search agency a few months after becoming CEO. It seems to me that there hasn't been sufficient time to make any assumptions that they "have come up empty".
Exactly mn, they were blindsided by SNY, worked on the settlement, got some lowball offers and pretty much didn’t know what to do. I don’t think it was much shaking going on:-) he’s now been with MNKD since March 2016 so hopefully we hear the fruits of their labor soon. |
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Post by wgreystone on Feb 11, 2018 15:03:04 GMT -5
BP will only come to the negotiation table when they see MNKD can stand on its own.
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