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Post by pantaloons on Feb 23, 2018 16:48:17 GMT -5
I think the elephant in the room is extending the runway, which will be accomplished primarily through either dilution or a partnership announcement. If a partnership with upfront funds isn't announced soon (probably by the end of Q1 or very, very shortly thereafter), then there is no choice but to dilute shares. A partnership on favorable terms announced during the next CC would be most beneficial, otherwise the likelihood of dilution will only continue to increase. I believe this is more or less the only spectrum of possibilities at this point in time in regard to extending the runway.
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Post by seanismorris on Feb 23, 2018 16:48:36 GMT -5
Mike Castagna at NobleCon (~4 weeks ago): “We’re working on international expansion. They just take time but that should be done soon.” It's minutes 22:58 - 23:02 of the webex posted to the Mannkind website; link below. It's also not the first time that Mike mentioned that they are contracting with partners but it just takes time. noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/3a495467d3b9401aadab15290f339d0d1dDBC...I'm curious as to whether you personally believe that we will see international partnership deals, let's say in the next 2 months (though I think we'll have at least one announced on Tuesday). When you talk about 'hopium' and years of no partnerships, one may think you don't believe we'll enter any deals soon. Though you do stop short of stating that. Which is probably wise as our current CEO has been literally checking boxes off a checklist, has International Expansion as the next box on the list, and says at a conference that the deals will be done soon. Looking forward to your response I would like MannKind to announce “Afrezza has been approved in Brazil, and EU approval is expected in the next 3 months”. The EU partner competition is underway, and the winner will be announced on the same day as Afrezza’s approval. The expectation is there will be significant upfront money...
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Post by uvula on Feb 23, 2018 17:46:14 GMT -5
What new wife?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 23, 2018 19:36:41 GMT -5
Mike Castagna at NobleCon (~4 weeks ago): “We’re working on international expansion. They just take time but that should be done soon.” It's minutes 22:58 - 23:02 of the webex posted to the Mannkind website; link below. It's also not the first time that Mike mentioned that they are contracting with partners but it just takes time. noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/3a495467d3b9401aadab15290f339d0d1dDBC...I'm curious as to whether you personally believe that we will see international partnership deals, let's say in the next 2 months (though I think we'll have at least one announced on Tuesday). When you talk about 'hopium' and years of no partnerships, one may think you don't believe we'll enter any deals soon. Though you do stop short of stating that. Which is probably wise as our current CEO has been literally checking boxes off a checklist, has International Expansion as the next box on the list, and says at a conference that the deals will be done soon. Looking forward to your response I would like MannKind to announce “Afrezza has been approved in Brazil, and EU approval is expected in the next 3 months”. The EU partner competition is underway, and the winner will be announced on the same day as Afrezza’s approval. The expectation is there will be significant upfront money... Back in Oct they weren't even showing EU as one of their immediate targets. They certainly haven't announced filing for approval. So they are way, way further off for approval. It would likely be 18 to 24 months away minimum. As for expectation for upfront money, I'd provide you with a quote: "While discussions with international partners are ongoing, we are not able to project a timeline for any deal. We are necessarily concentrating on the US market first, both because of limited bandwidth and because it is unlikely that an attractive international deal would be finalized before we are able to demonstrate the viability of the product in the US."
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Post by bill on Feb 23, 2018 19:48:24 GMT -5
International expansion seems to be the theme of Mike's new Twitter along with the new wife. Nice! twitter.com/castagna2011 barnstormer - I agree, an interesting choice in pictures. Will we see expansion to India Egypt (based on pyramid?) on Tuesday or just a vacation / honeymoon destination?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 23, 2018 19:49:53 GMT -5
Mike Castagna at NobleCon (~4 weeks ago): “We’re working on international expansion. They just take time but that should be done soon.” It's minutes 22:58 - 23:02 of the webex posted to the Mannkind website; link below. It's also not the first time that Mike mentioned that they are contracting with partners but it just takes time. noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/3a495467d3b9401aadab15290f339d0d1dDBC...I'm curious as to whether you personally believe that we will see international partnership deals, let's say in the next 2 months (though I think we'll have at least one announced on Tuesday). When you talk about 'hopium' and years of no partnerships, one may think you don't believe we'll enter any deals soon. Though you do stop short of stating that. Which is probably wise as our current CEO has been literally checking boxes off a checklist, has International Expansion as the next box on the list, and says at a conference that the deals will be done soon. Looking forward to your response See my post just above with the comment from MNKD about international deals likely not being attractive before they show viability in US. It appears we don't have any new doctors writing scripts since 6 months ago. So if viability wasn't proven back then, it seems little has changed. I personally don't think there would be a deal with any significant upfront money in the next 2 months. If they are willing to do another deal with no upfront, that may well be possible. We know they turned a deal down for Middle East. Who knows, maybe they even changed their mind about that. I don't think it's a lack of ability to do deals, just lack of ability to get the cash they so desperately need.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2018 5:29:34 GMT -5
That's really short notice. Speculation on my part, but could some at long last good news be forthcoming? An advertising campaign that showed promise? On going negotiations have finally been finalized. Regardless. Still a believer and buying weekly.
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Post by hellodolly on Feb 24, 2018 7:42:03 GMT -5
International expansion seems to be the theme of Mike's new Twitter along with the new wife. Nice! twitter.com/castagna2011The image of Moscow at night...do I need my super duper decoder ring? Mike advertising his plans for international expansion into Russia? I'll keep my hopes in check but, look forward to the conference call.
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Post by mnkdfann on Feb 24, 2018 7:48:17 GMT -5
International expansion seems to be the theme of Mike's new Twitter along with the new wife. Nice! twitter.com/castagna2011The image of Moscow at night...do I need my super duper decoder ring? Mike advertising his plans for international expansion into Russia? I'll keep my hopes in check but, look forward to the conference call. Moscow at night? Then what's with the pyramid in the image? Moscow has pyramids?
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Post by lennymnkd on Feb 24, 2018 8:04:29 GMT -5
In business things can turn on a dime , maybe they did !
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 24, 2018 8:43:05 GMT -5
I thought they went to Dubai on the honeymoon?
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Post by pat on Feb 24, 2018 11:38:04 GMT -5
I went back and listened to the Noble presentation again this morning. Mike literally says he talked to the CMOS of 7 major pharmas and there is nothing approaching the performance of afrezza coming in the next 10 years. He also said all 7 recognize that Afrezza performance is the standard to beat. You can’t say such things in a presentation like this unless there is truth to them?
He also said that the fixed cost of production is fairly substantial in the near term. The factory in Danbury is a big sunk cost. But that the marginal cost of production - cost of each incremental unit - is well below that of most other drugs. He used 100mm in sales as the threshold to overcome the factory cost. And that sales beyond the threshold will be extremely accretive to earnings.
I’m paraphrasing what he said. And I don’t know how accurate the 100mm threshold really is. But combine that with Nates repeated statement that at some point we’re going to see a massive switch to Afrezza driven by endos & physicians.
That’s the play in my mind. It’s not overseas expansion or deals with upfronts - unless the deal is for a pipeline product. It’s just a waiting game. There will be dilution. Question is how much. I hope it’s not 34mm shares cuz I want the short b@stards to burn.
But when we break the threshold it’s invest in pipeline time. Monetize the techno sphere platform. I just hope g0d gives me the patience and strength to last this out. Something like 9 years and counting. Although I’ve gotten my average cost down to 2.50, having loaded up the trunk these past months.
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Post by porkini on Feb 24, 2018 11:52:34 GMT -5
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 24, 2018 13:03:08 GMT -5
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Feb 24, 2018 13:39:47 GMT -5
Mike Castagna at NobleCon (~4 weeks ago): “We’re working on international expansion. They just take time but that should be done soon.” It's minutes 22:58 - 23:02 of the webex posted to the Mannkind website; link below. It's also not the first time that Mike mentioned that they are contracting with partners but it just takes time. noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/3a495467d3b9401aadab15290f339d0d1dDBC...I'm curious as to whether you personally believe that we will see international partnership deals, let's say in the next 2 months (though I think we'll have at least one announced on Tuesday). When you talk about 'hopium' and years of no partnerships, one may think you don't believe we'll enter any deals soon. Though you do stop short of stating that. Which is probably wise as our current CEO has been literally checking boxes off a checklist, has International Expansion as the next box on the list, and says at a conference that the deals will be done soon. Looking forward to your response See my post just above with the comment from MNKD about international deals likely not being attractive before they show viability in US. It appears we don't have any new doctors writing scripts since 6 months ago. So if viability wasn't proven back then, it seems little has changed. I personally don't think there would be a deal with any significant upfront money in the next 2 months. If they are willing to do another deal with no upfront, that may well be possible. We know they turned a deal down for Middle East. Who knows, maybe they even changed their mind about that. I don't think it's a lack of ability to do deals, just lack of ability to get the cash they so desperately need. Ok. I understand where you're coming from, though I see things differently. I personally believe that Mannkind will receive upfront cash from international deals for a few reasons. 1. Proof of viability in the U.S.: You said that we don't have any new doctors writing scripts since 6 months ago. I believe you're basing that on the number of NRx's the past few weeks compared to August 2017, which is a largely fair comparison. But even though I do think seasonality is having some impact on today's numbers, I don't think Mike is making the case for U.S. viability based based on today's NRx or new prescriber numbers. If he were, we would have some level of advertising going on, which we clearly don't. So I think looking at scripts today misses the point. Mannkind ran an advertising campaign in the latter months (~October to December) of 2017. During that time, total sales and revenue absolutely shot up. We could argue about how much - eyeballing mnholdem's chart in the 'Afrezza Script Counts - Symphony Data' thread, one may say that revenue increased by 100%, from $300K / week to $600K / week, in four months (7/31 - 11/31). Or you could say that advertising started later, and that revenue went up by 50% in two months, from $400K / week - $600K / week between 9/30 and 11/31. Keeping in mind that Mike was proving the concept that Afrezza is promotionally-sensitive, on the macro-level it seems he succeeded. But wait, there's more. We always interpret the sales data at a national level because we don't have anything more granular. However, the TV advertising was only done in certain markets. So the question none of us know the answer to, that Mike absolutely knows the answer to, is how much of the increase in sales during those months is attributable to the markets in which we advertised. If those markets made up an outsized % of our new sales, even if sales in the rest of the country slipped, that will help his business case to partners about the effectiveness of promotion on this drug. Although we are used to thinking nationally, Mike has more granular data that I believe tell a great story about U.S. viability. I think most, if not all, of the upcoming partners will provide upfront cash in exchange for 1) rights in certain countries and 2) equity in Mannkind. That's why we needed to issue 140M shares. Remember...if partners receive Mannkind equity, they will have skin in the game for our success. Mike showed these guys that providing us with cash will help Mannkind to grow sales, and increase their equity stake. Win / win. 2. Scarcity of options: Something that the Mannkind doom and gloom crowd (not saying that you're one of them) hates to acknowledge is that we have the best insulin product on the market. The evidence from users online makes that clear. Some may call it anecdotal, I call it real-world evidence...a data source gaining steam in pharma as a legitimate source of patient outcome data. Know what else adds credibility to our insulin product? Our new label, which is unquestionably better than other mealtime insulins. Dr. Kendall joining Mannkind. Potentially the time-in-range results from the recently-concluded STAT study. Is anyone really arguing that we have the best insulin product on the market, setting us up for healthcare today (A1C, pay-for-service) and even better for the healthcare of tomorrow (time-in-range, pay-for-outcomes)? I think every single Pharma company with any interest in the diabetes space knows that we have the best product. And if Mike said publicly that there's nothing coming out in the next 10 years that can compete with us, I believe him. Meaning any Pharma company that wants to play in the mealtime insulin space has one good option. We are it. They will gain revenue from sales abroad, and they will get equity appreciation from our sales in the U.S. And the reason I think this will translate into upfront cash is that there's no second chance. There's not going to be another opportunity 2 years from now for them to get back in the game. They have to do it now. For the reasons stated above, along with a whole host of other reasons that are mentioned by others throughout this board, I think that Mike has a lot more leverage in these negotiations than we give him credit for. And I am optimistic that this will translate to upfront cash by partners. Because they will get equity, and they'll want us to succeed. Seems like a no-brainer to me.
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