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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 24, 2018 13:52:37 GMT -5
See my post just above with the comment from MNKD about international deals likely not being attractive before they show viability in US. It appears we don't have any new doctors writing scripts since 6 months ago. So if viability wasn't proven back then, it seems little has changed. I personally don't think there would be a deal with any significant upfront money in the next 2 months. If they are willing to do another deal with no upfront, that may well be possible. We know they turned a deal down for Middle East. Who knows, maybe they even changed their mind about that. I don't think it's a lack of ability to do deals, just lack of ability to get the cash they so desperately need. Ok. I understand where you're coming from, though I see things differently. I personally believe that Mannkind will receive upfront cash from international deals for a few reasons. 1. Proof of viability in the U.S.: You said that we don't have any new doctors writing scripts since 6 months ago. I believe you're basing that on the number of NRx's the past few weeks compared to August 2017, which is a largely fair comparison. But even though I do think seasonality is having some impact on today's numbers, I don't think Mike is making the case for U.S. viability based based on today's NRx or new prescriber numbers. If he were, we would have some level of advertising going on, which we clearly don't. So I think looking at scripts today misses the point. Mannkind ran an advertising campaign in the latter months (~October to December) of 2017. During that time, total sales and revenue absolutely shot up. We could argue about how much - eyeballing mnholdem's chart in the 'Afrezza Script Counts - Symphony Data' thread, one may say that revenue increased by 100%, from $300K / week to $600K / week, in four months (7/31 - 11/31). Or you could say that advertising started later, and that revenue went up by 50% in two months, from $400K / week - $600K / week between 9/30 and 11/31. Keeping in mind that Mike was proving the concept that Afrezza is promotionally-sensitive, on the macro-level it seems he succeeded. But wait, there's more. We always interpret the sales data at a national level because we don't have anything more granular. However, the TV advertising was only done in certain markets. So the question none of us know the answer to, that Mike absolutely knows the answer to, is how much of the increase in sales during those months is attributable to the markets in which we advertised. If those markets made up an outsized % of our new sales, even if sales in the rest of the country slipped, that will help his business case to partners about the effectiveness of promotion on this drug. Although we are used to thinking nationally, Mike has more granular data that I believe tell a great story about U.S. viability. I think most, if not all, of the upcoming partners will provide upfront cash in exchange for 1) rights in certain countries and 2) equity in Mannkind. That's why we needed to issue 140M shares. Remember...if partners receive Mannkind equity, they will have skin in the game for our success. Mike showed these guys that providing us with cash will help Mannkind to grow sales, and increase their equity stake. Win / win. 2. Scarcity of options: Something that the Mannkind doom and gloom crowd (not saying that you're one of them) hates to acknowledge is that we have the best insulin product on the market. The evidence from users online makes that clear. Some may call it anecdotal, I call it real-world evidence...a data source gaining steam in pharma as a legitimate source of patient outcome data. Know what else adds credibility to our insulin product? Our new label, which is unquestionably better than other mealtime insulins. Dr. Kendall joining Mannkind. Potentially the time-in-range results from the recently-concluded STAT study. Is anyone really arguing that we have the best insulin product on the market, setting us up for healthcare today (A1C, pay-for-service) and even better for the healthcare of tomorrow (time-in-range, pay-for-outcomes)? I think every single Pharma company with any interest in the diabetes space knows that we have the best product. And if Mike said publicly that there's nothing coming out in the next 10 years that can compete with us, I believe him. Meaning any Pharma company that wants to play in the mealtime insulin space has one good option. We are it. They will gain revenue from sales abroad, and they will get equity appreciation from our sales in the U.S. And the reason I think this will translate into upfront cash is that there's no second chance. There's not going to be another opportunity 2 years from now for them to get back in the game. They have to do it now. For the reasons stated above, along with a whole host of other reasons that are mentioned by others throughout this board, I think that Mike has a lot more leverage in these negotiations than we give him credit for. And I am optimistic that this will translate to upfront cash by partners. Because they will get equity, and they'll want us to succeed. Seems like a no-brainer to me. So smart you are:-) Agree with your whole post, and I was actually on the phone 20 minutes ago saying this to a mankind long ...... although I did not explain it is accurately as you have. “Mannkind ran an advertising campaign in the latter months (~October to December) of 2017. During that time, total sales and revenue absolutely shot up. We could argue about how much - eyeballing mnholdem's chart in the 'Afrezza Script Counts - Symphony Data' thread, one may say that revenue increased by 100%, from $300K / week to $600K / week, in four months (7/31 - 11/31). Or you could say that advertising started later, and that revenue went up by 50% in two months, from $400K / week - $600K / week between 9/30 and 11/31. Keeping in mind that Mike was proving the concept that Afrezza is promotionally-sensitive, on the macro-level it seems he succeeded.”
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Post by seanismorris on Feb 24, 2018 14:00:34 GMT -5
I worry about any deal without cash up front.
What do you do if the partners commitment is lacking?
Any kind of deal without cash (especially) would have to be carefully constructed. For example, a commitment to spend X million on marketing, having Y number salespeople pushing Afrezza, etc.
There would need to be all kinds of penalties for not executing the agreed upon plan... and even if you construct a bulletproof partnership, if it went to court in places like China they’d just laugh.
What happens if we give the exclusive rights to sell Afrezza in country Z and they decide to bury the product? Brazil?
I want cash.
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 24, 2018 14:04:06 GMT -5
And this is is key! But wait, there's more. We always interpret the sales data at a national level because we don't have anything more granular. However, the TV advertising was only done in certain markets. So the question none of us know the answer to, that Mike absolutely knows the answer to, is how much of the increase in sales during those months is attributable to the markets in which we advertised. If those markets made up an outsized % of our new sales, even if sales in the rest of the country slipped, that will help his business case to partners about the effectiveness of promotion on this drug. Although we are used to thinking nationally, Mike has more granular data that I believe tell a great story about U.S. viability. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9597/fourth-quarter-financial-results-conferen?page=4#ixzz583PLV1l5
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 24, 2018 15:37:52 GMT -5
tarheelblue004 ... I don't think TV adverts started as soon as you state, and looking at revenue rather than scripts you're seeing the effects of a price increase that occurred during that period. Look at NRx to see trend in how many new patients are being added (the number stated is actually not all new patients but at least useful for trend observation). Hopefully the regional Symphony data shows the adverts drive scripts, but I don't think the national data shows it. Hope your speculation is correct. Cash is sorely needed, so any upfront payment would be very useful. If it is for equity (diluting us), the question is whether it's at market value or at a discounted price (and how much). They do have a limit of how much equity they can offer at a discount in any 6 month period. You said "And if Mike said publicly that there's nothing coming out in the next 10 years that can compete with us, I believe him." Did he say that? When was that... in the Noblecon talk? That's not something I recall. Just curious. Given you had an "if" I wasn't sure if you actually heard that or just thinking he might have said it.
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 24, 2018 18:38:57 GMT -5
Let’s not forget they were running the commercials in the doctors offices before they hit television. Which I think was right after they were on reversed.
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Post by bones1026 on Feb 24, 2018 22:24:06 GMT -5
tarheelblue004 ... I don't think TV adverts started as soon as you state, and looking at revenue rather than scripts you're seeing the effects of a price increase that occurred during that period. Look at NRx to see trend in how many new patients are being added (the number stated is actually not all new patients but at least useful for trend observation). Hopefully the regional Symphony data shows the adverts drive scripts, but I don't think the national data shows it. Hope your speculation is correct. Cash is sorely needed, so any upfront payment would be very useful. If it is for equity (diluting us), the question is whether it's at market value or at a discounted price (and how much). They do have a limit of how much equity they can offer at a discount in any 6 month period. You said "And if Mike said publicly that there's nothing coming out in the next 10 years that can compete with us, I believe him." Did he say that? When was that... in the Noblecon talk? That's not something I recall. Just curious. Given you had an "if" I wasn't sure if you actually heard that or just thinking he might have said it. [br I know I am repeating myself..but when I hear you say thing like “WE” and “US” when talking about MNKD longs..to only see you subsequently challenge or rebut ALL positive comments about your “investment ”...just makes ZERO logical sense to me..if you’re short, I’m fine with that, up till now, your side is winning..just cut the “we” stuff out
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 24, 2018 22:33:05 GMT -5
I worry about any deal without cash up front. What do you do if the partners commitment is lacking? Any kind of deal without cash (especially) would have to be carefully constructed. For example, a commitment to spend X million on marketing, having Y number salespeople pushing Afrezza, etc. There would need to be all kinds of penalties for not executing the agreed upon plan... and even if you construct a bulletproof partnership, if it went to court in places like China they’d just laugh. What happens if we give the exclusive rights to sell Afrezza in country Z and they decide to bury the product? Brazil? I want cash. That would be ideal for a pipeline drug. However, for a collaboration to sell Afrezza internationally, I'd be okay with the partner agreeing to cover all costs related to application and approval by the foreign drug approval agency coupled with a decent royalty on sales following approval. That's pretty much the deal MannKind struck with Biomm in Brazil.
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Post by jonny80s on Feb 25, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5
The date is very meaningful. 7 represents good fortune and putting a 2 in front of it is like doubling that. Clearly they are trying to send a signal to us. This is about as strong of a buy signal as I've ever seen for a stock. We've been foolish in the past to think that each conference call was going to be the one... but this time it just feels different... well, actually the same, but it's a good feeling so let's run with it for the weekend. Of course load up on those Mar 2nd call options... and/or lotto tickets. I’m thinking “dreamboat” refers to a new marijuana product, and someone has been heavily testing it. I can’t remember the last time buying before a CC has worked out... But good luck 😉 Sure it has. You buy the week before the call and then dump the day or morning before the call. Then rebuy a few weeks to a month later on a new low. Works just about every quarterly call.... Sorry, getting a little pessimistic.
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 25, 2018 9:38:14 GMT -5
Many investing strategies work following historical trends...until they don't. Al Mann was only interested in disruptive solutions. MNKD longs are seemingly only interested in a disruptive investment. It certainly hasn't been great to date but maybe the playing field turns this coming week? We'll see.
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Feb 25, 2018 11:25:25 GMT -5
tarheelblue004 ... I don't think TV adverts started as soon as you state, and looking at revenue rather than scripts you're seeing the effects of a price increase that occurred during that period. Look at NRx to see trend in how many new patients are being added (the number stated is actually not all new patients but at least useful for trend observation). Hopefully the regional Symphony data shows the adverts drive scripts, but I don't think the national data shows it. Hope your speculation is correct. Cash is sorely needed, so any upfront payment would be very useful. If it is for equity (diluting us), the question is whether it's at market value or at a discounted price (and how much). They do have a limit of how much equity they can offer at a discount in any 6 month period. You said "And if Mike said publicly that there's nothing coming out in the next 10 years that can compete with us, I believe him." Did he say that? When was that... in the Noblecon talk? That's not something I recall. Just curious. Given you had an "if" I wasn't sure if you actually heard that or just thinking he might have said it. dbc... 1. I stated that we could argue about when the ads started but the broad data that we have clearly shows a jump in both scripts and revenue during that time period. Since you challenged even that by saying that NRx did not increase during that time, I went back into the raw data just for you. From Liane's weekly-updated Symphony script table: - August: NRx in the four weeks of 8/4 - 8/25 had totals of 189, 197, 189, and 229 for an average of 201 NRx / week - October: NRx in the four weeks of 10/6 - 10/27 had totals of 225, 209, 247, and 267 for an average of 237 NRx / week - November: NRx in the four weeks of 11/3 - 11/24 had totals of 247, 253, 270, and 199 (Thanksgiving) for an average of 242 NRx / week
- December: NRx in the four weeks of 12/1 - 12/22 had totals of 247, 251, 256, and 295 for an average of 262 NRx / weekI left out the Christmas week (12/29, 183 NRx) because I think you'd agree that the Christmas impact on scripts is an outlier and not relevant to this analysis. The results: - Between August and October (2 Mo), we had a 9% compounded monthly growth rate in NRx - Between October and December (2 Mo), we had a 5% compounded monthly growth rate in NRx - Between August and December (4 Mo), we had a 7% compounded monthly growth rate in NRx - Thanksgiving skewed the October to November growth down, and the November to December growth up If there's one point of question here, it's what we would have seen if Thanksgiving had been a more normal week. On one side, it could have resulted in decreased growth between November and December. On the other side, you can see that it took a while for December scripts to recover after Thanksgiving; had Thanksgiving been normal, script growth may have increased even further in December. In reality, there's a lot here we don't know here that would help shape the story. We don't know when advertising started, the impact of the holiday season, and the growth that came from the targeted markets vs. other markets. However, Mike knows when advertising started and has the data on script growth in targeted markets vs. other markets. And as a seasoned Commercial Pharmaceutical Executive (he was VP, Global Commercial Lead at Amgen among other previous roles), he has a much better idea than we do about the impact of the holiday season on script growth. So while I believe the data above shows NRx growth in the months that coincide with advertising and lends evidence towards the commercial-viability of Afrezza, I know that Mike has the data and experience to craft an even better story to partners. If Mike thought he needed more data on commercial response, we would still be advertising in those markets now. I interpret the lack of advertising as Mike having all of the data he needs. 2. You say that upfront cash would be useful, and worry about whether 'dilution' would occur at market price or at a discount. I think you know that simple cash for equity is not a true representation of any of these partnership deals, but I'll elaborate on the point nonetheless. A deal with any partner would have a minimum of 2, and possibly 4 or more, financial elements: Partner Receives 1. Certainty: The partner receives Afrezza commercial rights in one or more countries, allowing the company to earn money by selling our drug 2. Likely: The partner receives equity in Mannkind to have skin in the game of our U.S. sales and other products (Mike told us this is one use of the newly issued shares) Mannkind Receives 3. Certainty: Mannkind receives a % royalty on sales in these countries 4. Possibly: Mannkind receives upfront cash from the partner These deals are not direct investments in which a partner receives equity (#2) in exchange for cash (#4). (#1) and (#3) above are levers in the negotiation that must also be accounted for. The value that the partner is seeking is to increase their sales and presence in the diabetes space, not to buy Mannkind shares on the cheap. Given that the investment price of Mannkind shares is likely the least of their worries in the deal, I'm optimistic that we'd get a satisfactory PPS if equity and cash were looked at in isolation...but they should not be. 3. In the Noblecon talk, Mike said the following: - (2:01 - 2:06) “And there’s nothing coming out in the next decade that can come close to the pK/pD profile of this product.” - (10:39 - 10:53): “I just finished up interviewing probably 7 different Chief Medical Officers from across the industry, you name it Lily, Novo, startups, turnarounds, and there is nothing coming close that does what we do. So my confidence in our company and our future is greater than ever.” 4. A musing unrelated to your post...I'm almost certain that Tuesday's meeting was announced with 3 days notice because material news will be released. With more time to reflect, I'm now thinking that the minimum that will get announced on Tuesday is the trep-t IND approval. The maximum being at least one international partner. But even if Tuesday comes and goes with no international partnership announcement, know that I will still believe that the partnership announcements are near-term, and that we'll receive upfront cash from the partners who get the most out of the deal (those who get rights in the largest and most profitable countries / markets).
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2018 14:46:29 GMT -5
tarheelblue004 ... I don't think TV adverts started as soon as you state, and looking at revenue rather than scripts you're seeing the effects of a price increase that occurred during that period. Look at NRx to see trend in how many new patients are being added (the number stated is actually not all new patients but at least useful for trend observation). Hopefully the regional Symphony data shows the adverts drive scripts, but I don't think the national data shows it. Hope your speculation is correct. Cash is sorely needed, so any upfront payment would be very useful. If it is for equity (diluting us), the question is whether it's at market value or at a discounted price (and how much). They do have a limit of how much equity they can offer at a discount in any 6 month period. You said "And if Mike said publicly that there's nothing coming out in the next 10 years that can compete with us, I believe him." Did he say that? When was that... in the Noblecon talk? That's not something I recall. Just curious. Given you had an "if" I wasn't sure if you actually heard that or just thinking he might have said it. [br I know I am repeating myself..but when I hear you say thing like “WE” and “US” when talking about MNKD longs..to only see you subsequently challenge or rebut ALL positive comments about your “investment ”...just makes ZERO logical sense to me..if you’re short, I’m fine with that, up till now, your side is winning..just cut the “we” stuff out Your logic unit is faulty. You fail to consider that some people see reality and don't feel a constant need to try to deceive themselves or others with illusions that everything is perfect regarding MNKD and Afrezza's journey to market. I assure you, in the world of investing it is not at all uncommon for a shareholder to be concerned about difficulties a company is facing. Many times it is the hope that the difficulties can be overcome that the shareholder sees as an investment opportunity when they feel the current share price reflects mainly the difficulties without reflecting the potential to overcome them.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2018 15:07:54 GMT -5
tarheelblue004 ... rather than arguing, I dug through the board to find the thread where people started posting about seeing the ads. The first sighting was Nov 28. That might not have been the absolute first airing, but I suspect it was within a few days of when they started running, not weeks after. I would assume that the Trep IND will be accepted, as they've said the meetings with FDA were very positive... and would occur whenever the date is that the FDA must conclude the review. I don't know when that is. " But even if Tuesday comes and goes with no international partnership announcement, know that I will still believe that the partnership announcements are near-term, and that we'll receive upfront cash from the partners who get the most out of the deal (those who get rights in the largest and most profitable countries / markets)." I think there are many here that share this faith... and have held the view it is near-term for a long, long while. It would be great if this belief does pan out sometime soon. I'll be jumping with joy and I imagine the share price would jump as well.
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 25, 2018 16:12:20 GMT -5
Just FYI....My friend texted me on November 17 and said he saw his first Afrezza commercial. I remember that being weeks after they started. And people were posting on ST about it. I would say they started in October.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2018 17:10:53 GMT -5
International expansion seems to be the theme of Mike's new Twitter along with the new wife. Nice! twitter.com/castagna2011What has he tweeted?
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Post by hellodolly on Feb 26, 2018 7:27:04 GMT -5
The image of Moscow at night...do I need my super duper decoder ring? Mike advertising his plans for international expansion into Russia? I'll keep my hopes in check but, look forward to the conference call. Moscow at night? Then what's with the pyramid in the image? Moscow has pyramids? Scratch that. Didn't see it in the corner. Maybe that's the closest to the Kremlin he can actually get and is dealing with intermediaries someplace else? Where is this image from, anyways?
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