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Post by #NoMoreNeedles on Mar 11, 2018 15:22:23 GMT -5
Mike says:
1. Brazil is on track. We've been having positive interactions with our partner and we expect to be able to launch there as earliest as Q1 2019.
2. Additionally, we have a fine term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One of both is we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time.
3. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world - while we know these markets may not generate a lot of cash, they will tremendously make a difference for society, and I believe with the 80 million to 100 million people in some of these markets, who have and AIC at 10 [ph] just a minor share in these segments will offset a tremendous difference in people's lives.
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Post by peppy on Mar 11, 2018 16:19:01 GMT -5
Mike says: 1. Brazil is on track. We've been having positive interactions with our partner and we expect to be able to launch there as earliest as Q1 2019. 2. Additionally, we have a fine term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One of both is we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time. 3. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world - while we know these markets may not generate a lot of cash, they will tremendously make a difference for society, and I believe with the 80 million to 100 million people in some of these markets, who have and AIC at 10 [ph] just a minor share in these segments will offset a tremendous difference in people's lives. investors.mannkindcorp.com/static-files/76875d41-2743-4a29-a76a-bc00f6d1ea33seekingalpha.com/article/4151494-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single |
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Post by cedafuntennis on Mar 11, 2018 18:12:06 GMT -5
That's all nice and dandy and it warms my heart but our pockets are getting emptier by the day and at the end of the day that's what keeps the company alive, not only dillution to be charitable. The only benefit would be to demonstrate efficiency and pharma superiority if anything.
I trust Mike fully and I'm sure he knows but cannot get better possibly. Market is very corrupt in the US. Hope that Trump can break it up and fix it as nobody else was willing and able to do it and it's a complete and total disaster and shame.
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Post by peppy on Mar 11, 2018 19:04:14 GMT -5
That's all nice and dandy and it warms my heart but our pockets are getting emptier by the day and at the end of the day that's what keeps the company alive, not only dillution to be charitable. The only benefit would be to demonstrate efficiency and pharma superiority if anything. I trust Mike fully and I'm sure he knows but cannot get better possibly. Market is very corrupt in the US. Hope that Trump can break it up and fix it as nobody else was willing and able to do it and it's a complete and total disaster and shame. whether it is India or Europe, to sell afrezza in another country the price needs to come down. Europe, because it has national health insurance. India because, I do not know enough about India. Private pay? Brazil it will be the same, the price will be less than what afrezza sells for in the US. A few rich will private pay? It was the milestones that will come in handy in the moment? hell, 10 million people, if 2000 are rich enough to self pay, we have doubled our weekly scripts. |
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Post by falconquest on Mar 11, 2018 19:59:18 GMT -5
Mike says: 1. Brazil is on track. We've been having positive interactions with our partner and we expect to be able to launch there as earliest as Q1 2019. 2. Additionally, we have a fine term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One of both is we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time. 3. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world - while we know these markets may not generate a lot of cash, they will tremendously make a difference for society, and I believe with the 80 million to 100 million people in some of these markets, who have and AIC at 10 [ph] just a minor share in these segments will offset a tremendous difference in people's lives. Zzzzzzzz......................zzzzzzzzzzz.......................zzzzzzzz.... |
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Post by nylefty on Mar 11, 2018 20:46:25 GMT -5
Mike says: 1. Brazil is on track. We've been having positive interactions with our partner and we expect to be able to launch there as earliest as Q1 2019. 2. Additionally, we have a fine term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One of both is we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time. 3. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world - while we know these markets may not generate a lot of cash, they will tremendously make a difference for society, and I believe with the 80 million to 100 million people in some of these markets, who have and AIC at 10 [ph] just a minor share in these segments will offset a tremendous difference in people's lives. Zzzzzzzz......................zzzzzzzzzzz.......................zzzzzzzz.... Not cute. |
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Post by matt on Mar 12, 2018 8:44:48 GMT -5
whether it is India or Europe, to sell afrezza in another country the price needs to come down. Europe, because it has national health insurance. India because, I do not know enough about India. Private pay? Brazil it will be the same, the price will be less than what afrezza sells for in the US. A few rich will private pay? It was the milestones that will come in handy in the moment? hell, 10 million people, if 2000 are rich enough to self pay, we have doubled our weekly scripts. The vast majority of countries are a combination of government funded healthcare and private pay. Essentially everybody is covered by the government program and wealthier folks or those with very good jobs can opt for a private plan. The private plans give access to hospitals and healthcare comparable to the best of what is available in the US. The government plans are bare bones, the hospitals are not very nice, and there are waiting lists for elective surgeries. The challenge is that before you can get excited about approval in any country, you first need to understand who is going to pay for it. The EU created its own grey market in drugs when poorer countries like Portugal set drug prices at the low end and countries like Germany set them high. Nobody ever called the Germans stupid, so drug demand soared in Portugal as German hospitals placed orders in Lisbon and shipped the pills back to Germany, and the EU courts ruled that this was permissible. Drug companies had the choice of raising prices in Portugal (thereby closing off that market for most patients) or dropping prices elsewhere giving Germany a free ride. Don't expect the public hospital systems in most countries, even in Europe, to buy Afrezza as they are very, very price sensitive and will switch suppliers for a price difference of a few pennies. Europe would be an attractive market only for Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Scandinavia, and perhaps Belgium, less than about one-third of the EU market, and even then expect that Afrezza will have to sell at least a 30% discount to US prices to crack the German krankenkassen (their version of managed care funds). Just be realistic about milestone payments. Any marketing partner worth having knows the pricing dynamics by hospital and they will quickly figure out the size of the opportunity and do the math on what they have to gain. They are not going to pay out big milestones (or any milestones) to gain exclusive access to markets such as France, UK, or Spain where every sale will be like pulling teeth. Which brings me back to my favorite topic and that is what is the true unit production cost of Afrezza. If the market will demand a 30% discount from US price, and the distributor will demand roughly a 30% discount from the local market price, is there enough profit margin remaining for MNKD to make a profit? Do the math and it suggests that MNKD needs a fully burdened manufacturing margin of at least 50% (based on US prices) and as of the fourth quarter MNKD was still showing a negative manufacturing margin. A lot of that is probably due to underabsorbed fixed costs, such as plant overhead, but the company needs to be more transparent on what the variable production cost really looks like. Then investors can assess what price reductions would really mean to the company and understand which foreign markets are realistically accessible. Just because a country has 50 million people does not mean that you can make money selling Afrezza to that country. |
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Post by peppy on Mar 12, 2018 9:33:36 GMT -5
The above by Matt, all true.
By my way of thinking, if MNKD is going to survive, we need to count on the population demand and ability to pay here in the USA.
The only reason Afrezza and MNKD can pull it off IS the product Afrezza is this good.
Insulin has always been difficult to dose. That problem has been solved. The problem of meal time spikes has also been solved. Refrigeration solved.
*Afrezza, Insulin human. Stop the spike. Insulin you can take.
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Post by hellodolly on Mar 12, 2018 9:40:28 GMT -5
The above by Matt, all true. By my way of thinking, if MNKD is going to survive, we need to count on the population demand and ability to pay here in the USA. The only reason Afrezza and MNKD can pull it off IS the product Afrezza is this good. Insulin has always been difficult to dose. That problem has been solved. The problem of meal time spikes has also been solved. Refrigeration solved. *Afrezza, Insulin human. Stop the spike. Insulin you can take. "Stop the spike, insulin you'll like." - Afrezzza |
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Post by zuegirdor on Mar 12, 2018 16:21:14 GMT -5
That's all nice and dandy and it warms my heart but our pockets are getting emptier by the day and at the end of the day that's what keeps the company alive, not only dillution to be charitable. The only benefit would be to demonstrate efficiency and pharma superiority if anything. I trust Mike fully and I'm sure he knows but cannot get better possibly. Market is very corrupt in the US. Hope that Trump can break it up and fix it as nobody else was willing and able to do it and it's a complete and total disaster and shame. whether it is India or Europe, to sell afrezza in another country the price needs to come down. Europe, because it has national health insurance. India because, I do not know enough about India. Private pay? Brazil it will be the same, the price will be less than what afrezza sells for in the US. A few rich will private pay? It was the milestones that will come in handy in the moment? hell, 10 million people, if 2000 are rich enough to self pay, we have doubled our weekly scripts. The volume leader can afford to lower prices... |
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 12, 2018 16:38:39 GMT -5
whether it is India or Europe, to sell afrezza in another country the price needs to come down. Europe, because it has national health insurance. India because, I do not know enough about India. Private pay? Brazil it will be the same, the price will be less than what afrezza sells for in the US. A few rich will private pay?It was the milestones that will come in handy in the moment? hell, 10 million people, if 2000 are rich enough to self pay, we have doubled our weekly scripts. The vast majority of countries are a combination of government funded healthcare and private pay. Essentially everybody is covered by the government program and wealthier folks or those with very good jobs can opt for a private plan. The private plans give access to hospitals and healthcare comparable to the best of what is available in the US. The government plans are bare bones, the hospitals are not very nice, and there are waiting lists for elective surgeries. I do not recall anyone ever mentioning this here before, but it appears that a number of nations have tariffs on imported insulin. Brazil is one of the worst (at least circa 2012-2013, it may still be). I bet that won't improve any, if those new Trump tariffs against Brazil steel etc. go into force. haiweb.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ACCISS-Tariff-April2016_FINAL.pdf"In 2012 and 2013 the majority of countries with the highest import tariffs on retail insulin are from Latin America, particularly Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, all of whom consistently have import tariffs on retail insulin in excess of 10 percent. Mexico, India, and Pakistan consistently are showing import tariffs for retail insulin of 10 percent" |
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Post by digger on Mar 12, 2018 22:46:56 GMT -5
Mike says: 1. Brazil is on track. We've been having positive interactions with our partner and we expect to be able to launch there as earliest as Q1 2019. 2. Additionally, we have a fine term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One of both is we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time. 3. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world - while we know these markets may not generate a lot of cash, they will tremendously make a difference for society, and I believe with the 80 million to 100 million people in some of these markets, who have and AIC at 10 [ph] just a minor share in these segments will offset a tremendous difference in people's lives. Zzzzzzzz......................zzzzzzzzzzz.......................zzzzzzzz.... I have to agree. I'm impressed by actual numbers even if they're only estimates. What does "positive interactions" supposed to mean in terms of future cash flow to MNKD? Ditto for "upfront milestones royalties" -- is there any upfront cash? |
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