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Post by goyocafe on Apr 1, 2018 11:55:46 GMT -5
Anyone thought about what details of a partnership would boost us back to post approval valuation? Even without sales kicking in right away, the right partnership would show a whole lot of potential for speculation and people coming back into the stock to take advantage of that potential. Cash to carry us 6-12 months without further dilution would be one catalyst. Thoughts?
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Post by brotherm1 on Apr 1, 2018 12:40:21 GMT -5
The answer would be over my head, though I would think Dexcom and Abbott should be interested. And I know nothing about Dexcom’s sales force but I believe they are only selling one product (their CGM’s). Why not diversify and increase potential to profit off more than one product without additional overhead and with very low costs while adding the obvious synergistic potential between Afrezza and CGM’s for increased sales of both?
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 1, 2018 13:28:09 GMT -5
Post approval valuation is a very high bar. The least likely but two that could definitely accomplish this would be Apple or Google as these would bring in an entirely new investor group. Next up would be a strong U.S. partnership, maybe Abbott or Lilly who could provide the validation, funds and horsepower to immediately increase the Afrezza sales force 5X or more and begin nationwide advertising. IMO Abbott has the horsepower ($9.7B) to pull off making both Libre and Afrezza independently successful whereas Dexcom ($715M) needs to remain unbiased to succeed. If Dexcom teams up with only one company, others would abandon them possibly causing Dexcom to fail. Lilly of course has a respected former executive with insider knowledge. I can't see international partnerships resulting in a post approval valuation unless someone big, i.e. China, India, comes in with a boatload of cash which isn't really feasible. Sanofi is one level below the bottom of the list  |
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Post by peppy on Apr 1, 2018 14:03:20 GMT -5
TEVA, although they are not biting.
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Post by lennymnkd on Apr 1, 2018 14:17:34 GMT -5
TEVA, although they are not biting. Peppy , was thinking or should I say hoping TEVA as well / guess not meant to be ,,, but with that said / is AFREZZA too intricate .. for someone of the likes of Teva ..mass marketing generics / AFREZZA might need some finesse ! |
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Post by buyitonsale on Apr 1, 2018 15:01:44 GMT -5
Cash to last until pediatric approval.
or
Cash to last until TreT approval
or
Cash to last for 1 year plus guaranteed Afrezza yearly purchase commitment for Ex US markets
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 1, 2018 16:23:34 GMT -5
I’ve actually thought about this question a lot. All great answers! Launches are almost always shorted, so it would be sell my calls on the news for me. Hold my shares and then get ready for our chart to look like EXAS:-))
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 1, 2018 16:52:33 GMT -5
Anyone thought about what details of a partnership would boost us back to post approval valuation? Even without sales kicking in right away, the right partnership would show a whole lot of potential for speculation and people coming back into the stock to take advantage of that potential. Cash to carry us 6-12 months without further dilution would be one catalyst. Thoughts? What is the timescale you are thinking off? I would say that it is impossible in the short term. Post approval the price peaked at around $54, although $30 is a more realistic bar. That would put a price of $6B (assuming full dilution) which is not an impossible sum, but it needs Afrezza to be competing with Novolog and Humalog. Nobody is going to put up that sort of cash until sales are a lot closer to that target. It's possible to get a deal earlier, but the price will be lower to reflect the increased risk. |
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Post by golfeveryday on Apr 1, 2018 18:05:51 GMT -5
Post approval valuation is a very high bar. The least likely but two that could definitely accomplish this would be Apple or Google as these would bring in an entirely new investor group. Next up would be a strong U.S. partnership, maybe Abbott or Lilly who could provide the validation, funds and horsepower to immediately increase the Afrezza sales force 5X or more and begin nationwide advertising. IMO Abbott has the horsepower ($9.7B) to pull off making both Libre and Afrezza independently successful whereas Dexcom ($715M) needs to remain unbiased to succeed. If Dexcom teams up with only one company, others would abandon them possibly causing Dexcom to fail. Lilly of course has a respected former executive with insider knowledge. I can't see international partnerships resulting in a post approval valuation unless someone big, i.e. China, India, comes in with a boatload of cash which isn't really feasible. Sanofi is one level below the bottom of the list While Apple or Google has some great PR fuel, I think it has a longer road to Afrezza sales. Might be wrong. My preference is Abbott for sure with the sales infrastructure sitting here ready to go with a great supporting product. Hoping the ‘international regional term sheets’ are a go alone negotiation tactic to entice a partner to lockup Afrezza globally. I can dream. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 1, 2018 18:56:17 GMT -5
Apple or Google would bring enough funds into play for major national marketing prior to increasing Afrezza sales. Regardless, this remains the longest of long shots. I would like Abbott, maybe Lilly as a partner in the U.S. I don't want ANY company to lock up Afrezza globally as Sanofi proved that to be dangerous. I prefer multiple global deals, i.e. Biomm, as that would allow Mannkind to grow into a major drug company. Maybe Teva in Israel though they usually work with generics. Mike said months ago he wanted partnerships in the U.S. to increase the needed sales force plus he has two international term sheets in hand. This is an exciting time. Based on the history of this company, there will probably be an announcement or two coming out of left field that no one expects. Hurry up!!
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 1, 2018 19:36:51 GMT -5
[Clipped] IMO Abbott has the horsepower ($9.7B) to pull off making both Libre and Afrezza independently successful whereas Dexcom ($715M) needs to remain unbiased to succeed. If Dexcom teams up with only one company, others would abandon them possibly causing Dexcom to fail. Abbott indeed has the horsepower and people with diabetes would continue to adopt Abbott's cutting edge line of glucose monitors regardless of whether they use Afrezza, IMHO. www.diabetescare.abbott/products.html |
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Post by peppy on Apr 2, 2018 0:58:31 GMT -5
[Clipped] IMO Abbott has the horsepower ($9.7B) to pull off making both Libre and Afrezza independently successful whereas Dexcom ($715M) needs to remain unbiased to succeed. If Dexcom teams up with only one company, others would abandon them possibly causing Dexcom to fail. Abbott indeed has the horsepower and people with diabetes would continue to adopt Abbott's cutting edge line of glucose monitors regardless of whether they use Afrezza, IMHO. www.diabetescare.abbott/products.htmlABBOTT PARK, Ill., Jan. 24, 2018 — Abbott today announced financial results for the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, 2017. Fourth-quarter worldwide sales of $7.6 billion increased 42.3 percent on a reported basis and 7.7 percent on a comparable operational* basis. Reported diluted EPS from continuing operations under GAAP was a $(0.50) loss in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the net expense of $1.46 billion for the estimated1 impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (U.S. tax reform). Excluding the impact of U.S. tax reform and other specified items, adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations was $0.74 in the fourth quarter, at the high end of the previous guidance range of $0.72 to $0.74. Abbott issues full-year 2018 guidance for diluted EPS from continuing operations on a GAAP basis of $1.22 to $1.32. Projected full-year adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations is $2.80 to $2.90, reflecting 14.0 percent growth2 at the midpoint. In November, Abbott initiated the U.S. launch of FreeStyle® Libre, the only continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system available that comes factory-calibrated and removes the need for routine fingersticks3 for people with diabetes. In January, Abbott announced that FreeStyle Libre is now available and approved for coverage by the U.S. Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
Abbott is the one we want. Afrezza Libre. Libre Afrezza. (Joey says Libre.)  www.abbottinvestor.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=94004&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=5266119 |
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Post by matt on Apr 2, 2018 7:34:36 GMT -5
Even without sales kicking in right away . . . I don't think you can start a serious discussion with that qualification. Investors take a look at an opportunity and estimate what a product will do in the market and, based on that analysis, assign a value they are willing to pay. The numbers are always bigger in the minds of some investors before the reality of the market sets in; this is why a lot of players invest in developmental stage biotechs and then exit immediately upon approval. In the case of Afrezza, there have been at least two launches (one with Sanofi and one or more with MNKD managed resources depending on how you look at things) with disappointing results relative to the estimates that drove post-approval valuation. You can analyze the reasons to death, but the fact is that the drug has been on the market for several years without results coming anywhere close to the perceived potential. Sales do have to kick in to change the established perception. |
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Post by peppy on Apr 2, 2018 7:47:31 GMT -5
Even without sales kicking in right away . . . I don't think you can start a serious discussion with that qualification. Investors take a look at an opportunity and estimate what a product will do in the market and, based on that analysis, assign a value they are willing to pay. The numbers are always bigger in the minds of some investors before the reality of the market sets in; this is why a lot of players invest in developmental stage biotechs and then exit immediately upon approval. In the case of Afrezza, there have been at least two launches (one with Sanofi and one or more with MNKD managed resources depending on how you look at things) with disappointing results relative to the estimates that drove post-approval valuation. You can analyze the reasons to death, but the fact is that the drug has been on the market for several years without results coming anywhere close to the perceived potential. Sales do have to kick in to change the established perception. Quote; You can analyze the reasons to death, but the fact is that the drug has been on the market for several years without results coming anywhere close to the perceived potential. Sales do have to kick in to change the established perception.
Reply: Or is it, insurance needs to be obtained for sales to kick in and change the established perception? (I am not picking on you.) |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 2, 2018 9:07:35 GMT -5
I don't think you can start a serious discussion with that qualification. Investors take a look at an opportunity and estimate what a product will do in the market and, based on that analysis, assign a value they are willing to pay. The numbers are always bigger in the minds of some investors before the reality of the market sets in; this is why a lot of players invest in developmental stage biotechs and then exit immediately upon approval. In the case of Afrezza, there have been at least two launches (one with Sanofi and one or more with MNKD managed resources depending on how you look at things) with disappointing results relative to the estimates that drove post-approval valuation. You can analyze the reasons to death, but the fact is that the drug has been on the market for several years without results coming anywhere close to the perceived potential. Sales do have to kick in to change the established perception. Quote; You can analyze the reasons to death, but the fact is that the drug has been on the market for several years without results coming anywhere close to the perceived potential. Sales do have to kick in to change the established perception.
Reply: Or is it, insurance needs to be obtained for sales to kick in and change the established perception? (I am not picking on you.) It's cause and effect, I don't care what the cause is as long as the effect is higher sales Abbott is generic drugs to the non-US market, and medical devices. They briefly owned a diabetic supplies company, Arriva Medical, that they got as part of the Alere acquisition and shutdown almost immediately. Abbott are not going to buy Mannkind. |
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