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Post by matt on Apr 6, 2018 12:55:12 GMT -5
Seems to me that they issued as many shares as they possibly could. I am eager to read where / why I am mistaken. The NASDAQ Marketplace Rules prohibit issuing more than 20% of the outstanding shares at a discount to the market price in any six month period. This is a perpetually moving target as each sale will affect the start of the six month period and the number of shares outstanding. I don't have the patience to do the math, but you can easily get there if you troll back through all the SEC filings. The numbers below are for example purposes only. Each discounted raise resets the calendar, in full or in part, which determines when the next raise can happen. Similarly, since the 20% limit is based on outstanding shares, not authorized shares, the more shares that get sold the larger the next raise can be. Imagine if a company does the maximum permissible discounted raise on January 1 and after the raise they have 100 shares. The rules allow a follow-on raise for 20% of the outstanding no earlier than July 1, but the outstanding shares after that raise will be 100 + 20 = 120. Similarly, the following January 1 the company can sell 24 more shares for a new total outstanding of 144. There is a built-in incentive to sell the maximum permissible as soon as possible after the six month waiting period is over as that sets the limits for the next raise even higher. To understand MNKD you need to build a spreadsheet with dates for every share issuance in the past six months, keep a running computation of the total outstanding, and know which sales were under the ATM (which is not discounted) and which were discounted (like Deerfield / Amphastar deals). With that data in hand it will be easy to see what the maximum number of shares issuable on any given date looks like.
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Post by wgreystone on Apr 6, 2018 12:58:35 GMT -5
Mike mentioned the buyers of the offering are healthcare funds. They should be long term investors which is good for the company, as it shows someones believe the potential of the company. Now it's even better that you can buy the stock at a price better than what the funds get.
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Post by babaoriley on Apr 6, 2018 13:03:13 GMT -5
Many astute commentators (among them Sports) are pointing to the disappointing MNKD offering as the major catalyst of the market melt down. Not sure I'm buying that.
Here's how I see it - this is the best we could do right now, and what's disappointing to me is that this is the best we could do right now. Although we don't align with management completely, we align sufficiently, so that I'm confident they are doing what they think is best, given all circumstances.
I would pretty much say that those who are participating in this offering sold short a while back and the shares they're getting will be their cover. Same as before, only $4 or so less. The $6 placement was extraordinary, this one is ordinary.
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Post by oldfishtowner on Apr 6, 2018 13:08:41 GMT -5
Are H.C. Wainwright & Co. clients getting a chance to average down? This is a question. There was a law suit brought after the 6 dollar offering. Had the same thought because it looked like too sweet of a deal for the investors. However, with MNKD you never know. What I do believe is that the stock price will recover in May. Last May the pps rose in anticipation of the ADA, without the label update nor the STAT trial results. And with neither of these MNKD managed a nice bump up in scripts in the weeks following the ADA meeting. I agree that the STAT trial was probably successful, but whether it is an out-of-the-ballpark home run or not is another question. It is a small study, with only 60 patients and a short treatment period of 4 weeks. What makes me hesitate is, if it were an out-of-the-ballpark home run, why would Kendall feel compelled to review 60 old studies for selling points? It could be that management is looking for data to bolster or support the STAT results. Nevertheless, between the label change and the STAT study I think there is a good chance that the post-ADA bump up in scripts could be larger than last year's.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 6, 2018 13:10:35 GMT -5
Many astute commentators (among them Sports) are pointing to the disappointing MNKD offering as the major catalyst of the market melt down. Not sure I'm buying that. Here's how I see it - this is the best we could do right now, and what's disappointing to me is that this is the best we could do right now. Although we don't align with management completely, we align sufficiently, so that I'm confident they are doing what they think is best, given all circumstances. I would pretty much say that those who are participating in this offering sold short a while back and the shares they're getting will be their cover. Same as before, only $4 or so less. The $6 placement was extraordinary, this one is ordinary. Huh?
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Post by factspls88 on Apr 6, 2018 13:54:18 GMT -5
Nothing like a 25% hit to Mannkind to top off a drubbing in the overall market. Thank God it's Friday.
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Post by mytakeonit on Apr 6, 2018 13:58:11 GMT -5
So it's God Friday ... and last week was Good Friday ... interesting
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Post by mytakeonit on Apr 6, 2018 14:13:54 GMT -5
Oooommm ... I think ... therefore I am. Oh sorry, I was getting spiritual guidance and forgot myself.
Thinking about what just happened ... I feel that Mike C just sold MNKD stock to a "special group of healthcare investors" ... not funds ... investors. I think this was done because we have certain backers that are helping MNKD stay afloat and when the share price dropped below the $2.50 benchmark ... we needed to help these investors by giving them an average down support. This also seems will add a 6 month additional runway for MNKD and allow us to get to where we want to be.
So my investment advice is ... KITE !!! BUY NOW !!!
But, that's just mytakeonit
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Apr 6, 2018 14:20:29 GMT -5
So the additional approved shares were not approved for partnerships? I dislike saying it, it looks like Mike C lied regarding that. I know there backs were against the wall, that was the last shareholders meeting. Additionally, why would a shareholders meeting have a time limit, they work for us. Answer our questions. Every one of them. Absolutely and if the questions run past midnight, tough shit. He gets paid every two weeks a nice chunk of change to deliver and all of you can determine what we have and have not received for our money. To be fair, I would give him a few more months to see if: Rx counts grow like he said and if the two deals get done and bring in cash. If the deals don't get done and the STAT study is poor, its over. Conversely, if the cash coming in from the deals is north of $40mm and the STAT study rocks, we could be off to the races. Again if the two deals don't get done by the shareholders meeting and Rx counts flounder, nothing wrong with asking him why and repeatedly asking him (screaming at him if need be) why. Diplomacy only goes so far and sometimes, one has to be a complete motherFxxxer and its nothing personal, its just business. Retail shareholders were always fair. They were fair to All when he accepted a shrewd trial, fair to Hakan when he publicly begged for partners and talked like the lab rat he was and fair to Matt when another deal did not materialized. They were fair when the outsulin marketing thing was a flop or the reverse or the TV ads. Fair when the third sales force still did not make the scripts explode. It really took time to digest the big mistake not to sell all the calls and shares at USD 6 last year.would have made it even for me. But I wanted to have at least a bit of premium for all the shot that happened.Well. I had been heavily invested in 3 story stocks. One is bankrupt and 2 are on life support. Never again.
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Post by peppy on Apr 6, 2018 14:24:02 GMT -5
Oooommm ... I think ... therefore I am. Oh sorry, I was getting spiritual guidance and forgot myself. Thinking about what just happened ... I feel that Mike C just sold MNKD stock to a "special group of healthcare investors" ... not funds ... investors. I think this was done because we have certain backers that are helping MNKD stay afloat and when the share price dropped below the $2.50 benchmark ... we needed to help these investors by giving them an average down support. This also seems will add a 6 month additional runway for MNKD and allow us to get to where we want to be. So my investment advice is ... KITE !!! BUY NOW !!! But, that's just mytakeonit That does make a lot of sense mytakeonit. puzzle pieces. and we needed more money. jeez.
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Post by tingtongtung on Apr 6, 2018 14:26:55 GMT -5
Like an idiot, I bought decent amount when it went up to 6 (and didn't sell any of my holdings then). I learned the lesson, and I sold a few lots at 3.20 or so, a few weeks back. But, I didn't anticipate this much pullback.
Everyone is making good points. Difficult to make any sense out of it. * They raised just enough to last until ADA meeting. GOOD: They have an awesome result, and 1/2 partners. BAD : They couldn't raise more. My opinion: They should have raised more than this. Didn't Al say that you need to raise 3x more capital than what you think you need? Was there no demand? I dont know. * Scripts: GOOD: Going up. BAD : The gain is almost negligible overall. (I know Sanofi screwed us, etc, etc) My opinion: They are doing it wrong, and not learning from their mistakes. They should have picked 2/3 key areas (CA, NY, CT) and flooded them with their sales people, ads and work *VERY* closely with Vdex, rather than trying to market it in the whole country. They could increase their discounts while keeping the costs low. Advertising in fewer markets is cheaper, and the numbers would have looked better for any partnership deals. Anyway they cannot break even with these numbers. Why not grow the scripts if they lose a little more money in the meantime? The end game is partnership unless they can get something like > $200 million at very little dilution (which is very, very difficult). (I could be completely wrong. If I can think of this, I'm sure they did too, and eliminated this because of something?)
I'm not short on MNKD. I have been long for several years. They say you should not get emotionally attached to a stock. But, this is a good company, and I want them to succeed for the diabetes patients. Lets see if my buy order goes thru at 1.68.
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Post by hellodolly on Apr 6, 2018 14:27:40 GMT -5
Many astute commentators (among them Sports) are pointing to the disappointing MNKD offering as the major catalyst of the market melt down. Not sure I'm buying that. Here's how I see it - this is the best we could do right now, and what's disappointing to me is that this is the best we could do right now. Although we don't align with management completely, we align sufficiently, so that I'm confident they are doing what they think is best, given all circumstances. I would pretty much say that those who are participating in this offering sold short a while back and the shares they're getting will be their cover. Same as before, only $4 or so less. The $6 placement was extraordinary, this one is ordinary. Huh? just say it...putting words in your mouth. Funny, it wasn't directed at me but, I thought the same thing...'huh'?
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Post by buyitonsale on Apr 6, 2018 14:33:32 GMT -5
The timing of this offering caught me by surprise since I thought that we met 25M requirement and now can wait for anticipated upfront money from some deal in Q2... Well, on the other hand the previous offering at $6 was a nice surprise also... For me, the fastest road to break even is only through international sales. Brazil starts in Q1 2019 and I am hoping that it will bring enough business to make it happen in 2019. We need money to last until then. Any other ex US deals are likely to begin sales way after Brazil. So, why we are not seeing a push for Canada and Mexico to file on our own? Logistically those are a low handing fruit. The pipeline is the real "river card" IMO, but the first order of business is to get enough revenue to break even ASAP. I would like Mike to focus on the "plan to achieve break even revenue" at the ASM...
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 6, 2018 14:35:00 GMT -5
Why aren’t the warrants exercisable for 6months? There was mention of a maximum dilution amount per 6 months period. We don’t have 6 months of money in the bank. The previous raise (14 million) was just under 6 months ago. So in a matter of weeks they will be free to do another offering of something like 15-20 million shares. Not sure of the exact figure, but I believe it is in that ball park.
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Post by matt on Apr 6, 2018 14:43:41 GMT -5
Every investment bank has a clientele that they serve (hint: the clientele is the investors putting in the money and not the companies paying the fees). HC Wainwright and their affiliate Rodman & Renshaw have a well-established track record for the kind of deals they do and their clientele. The fact that Mike stylized the investors as "healthcare funds" does not mean they are long-term strategic investors like Atlas or Orbimed. Once the announcement was made that MNKD would be presenting at the Monaco conference it shouldn't have been a big surprise to anybody that today's announcement was only weeks away.
Those with the stomach for it either bought slightly out-of-the-money puts or sold short, and covered today. MNKD announced that they would be presenting at the conference on March 19 and the borrow rate promptly increased at several brokerages over the following days before settling back down. That was not a coincidence; it pays to study tea leaf reading.
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