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Post by oldfishtowner on Apr 6, 2018 14:45:00 GMT -5
So it's God Friday ... and last week was Good Friday ... interesting Actually, today is also Good Friday (Eastern Rite Catholics and Orthodox). So if you were too busy and missed last week, you have another chance to celebrate Easter this Sunday.
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Post by cjm18 on Apr 6, 2018 14:49:02 GMT -5
Why aren’t the warrants exercisable for 6months? There was mention of a maximum dilution amount per 6 months period. We don’t have 6 months of money in the bank. The previous raise (14 million) was just under 6 months ago. So in a matter of weeks they will be free to do another offering of something like 15-20 million shares. Not sure of the exact figure, but I believe it is in that ball park. “Now I want to touch on 2018 guidance. Our 2018 full-year revenue guidance is net revenue of $25 million to $30 million and net cash used in operating activities of $90 million to $100 million. I will remind you that we started January 1, with approximately $48 million in cash.” So We will hit 25m in July. Flash the term sheets and Stat study at ada. Get price up 2.75 and dilute again.
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Post by cretin11 on Apr 6, 2018 14:56:06 GMT -5
Those with the stomach for it either bought slightly out-of-the-money puts or sold short, and covered today. MNKD announced that they would be presenting at the conference on March 19 and the borrow rate promptly increased at several brokerages over the following days before settling back down. That was not a coincidence; it pays to study tea leaf reading. Matt, did you have the stomach for that, and what do you read in the tea leaves for MNKD going forward?
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Post by kc on Apr 6, 2018 14:58:19 GMT -5
So it's God Friday ... and last week was Good Friday ... interesting Actually, today is also Good Friday (Eastern Rite Catholics and Orthodox). So if you were too busy and missed last week, you have another chance to celebrate Easter this Sunday. Good to know. Does anybody want my surplus Matzoh?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Apr 6, 2018 15:03:02 GMT -5
Script count highest since the last 2 years is still positive going to Monaco with an extra 26 mil and change can’t hurt. 🤞 🤞 Those Monaco hotel suites and yacht harbour cruises won't pay for themselves. Are you a current shareholder? If so why? If not then that explains that comment, same question for those others that keep whining and complaining....free market, same as always, if you're not happy don't let the door slap you in the ......don't blame others for your decisions, unless of course you were in a blind trust and it wasn't your decision . Side note, was at the endo yesterday, he was very pleased with my results, his intern that is currently doing his rotations with him got quite the education I must say
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vin
Newbie
Posts: 19
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Post by vin on Apr 6, 2018 15:07:40 GMT -5
Sports, thank you for sharing the Mike C. tweets. They keep me bullish. I was buying MNKD stock today like Duke & Duke were buying FCOJ in Trading Places. Hope I end up like Winthorpe and Valentine and not like the Dukes!
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Post by falconquest on Apr 6, 2018 16:56:50 GMT -5
Mannkind needs a win. The biggest achievements of this company have been FDA approval and the Sanofi deal. We know how that turned out. What happened to pain manangement? What happened to Epi? What happened to so many deals that were just about to happen? Despite One Drop, Brazil, RLS, etc., etc., Mannkind has nothing to show for their efforts. No Technosphere deals, Afrezza scripts languishing, consistent change of leadership, inability to sell their FDA approved product, no legitimate partnerships, this company needs to make a deal that puts real money into the coffers. The carrot has been dangling on the end of a stick for soooo many years and yet nothing happens except kicking the financial can down the road. I have said it many times, they have the best insulin product in the world and can't make a buck. Good luck all.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 6, 2018 17:18:24 GMT -5
This should not be surprising or shocking to anyone. This is precisely what people voted for when they authorized a doubling of the share count a few months ago. MNKD has literally no other way to secure financing and dilution will continue until they can demonstrate profitability for their drugs, if that can be done at all. This should show you that any deals they expect to close will likely provide little to no funding. I've been slowly trying to cut my losses in the stock over the last few months, and in hindsight, I'm glad I did, even if it cost me several tens of thousands of dollars. So the additional approved shares were not approved for partnerships? I dislike saying it, it looks like Mike C lied regarding that. I know their backs were against the wall, that was the last shareholders meeting. Additionally, why would a shareholders meeting have a time limit, they work for us. Answer our questions. Every one of them. He just said that was one possible use for shares. He didn't lie, though many investors here on proboards certainly did their best to sell an illusion. We're now up to about 180 million shares if all the warrants, conversion rights, employee stock options, etc. are executed. I still believe authorizing 140 million extra was a mistake, as investors are having to price in that management may max out the authorized shares again... and that depresses the price and is self fulfilling in that an offering like this then occurs at a lower price and thus requires more shares. I'm now factoring into my own calculations that we are likely to have at least 225 million outstanding to profitability. Taking Nate's range of $1B to $3B market cap would then yield a price range of $4.44 to $13.33 per share. Personally I think if Afrezza reaches profitability the market cap would be higher than $1B. I might substitute $2B or $8.88 a share as the lower end.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2018 17:27:17 GMT -5
My point is MannKind is the worst of the worst. Do you really think this round of dilution is the last? I’ll bet we have at least 2 more (dilution events) in excess of 50 million this year. You know what’s crazy? MannKind times the dilution at the worst possible moment. I wonder if they send out pamphlets first to the Shorts... Thats funny.
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Post by ghonner on Apr 6, 2018 18:56:55 GMT -5
always bet on black
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Post by radgray68 on Apr 6, 2018 19:59:36 GMT -5
I'm just surprised...that anybody's surprised by the offering. We needed money, we got money. We're not doing super great right now, but we're not defunct. Besides, we need to get well over $100 million in sales to justify even a $5 share price (fully diluted 280 mil) and that's going to take over a year, maybe two. Sure, I hope for all the things you guys do: A big partnership, a buyout, scripts suddenly shoot to the moon, an activist investor takes a stake, etc. etc. But, that's not enough to hold stock in a company. That's why the share price is tanking. A large portion of Wall Street thinks one, two or three quarters ahead. Institutional guys would lose their jobs if they hold a biotech on the books while they're going through capital raises and dilution.
Investing is a patient man's game. I've questioned myself on the situation and my own tolerances. Perhaps it would be good for some of you to ask yourselves if you have the patience needed for investing on your own at all, let alone a high-risk biotech company. There's no shame in going with an S&P 500 index fund. I own Ticker symbol: SPY. It's very low cost, it's pulled back nicely of late and has a history of almost 9.5% return since its inception. Nothing wrong with that. I only offer this advice because i'm reading a lot of angst on this board lately and I feel your pain. GLTA
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Post by sayhey24 on Apr 6, 2018 20:05:40 GMT -5
I have to agree with Mike's tweet and add this time last year I thought MNKD had a pretty good chance of not making it. We are in a much much better position today.
The good news is we should only have 2 or 3 more dilutions before things turn. For any that have been around MNKD for a long time, 2 or 3 more is great news, just saying.
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Post by digger on Apr 6, 2018 20:46:56 GMT -5
My point is MannKind is the worst of the worst. Do you really think this round of dilution is the last? I’ll bet we have at least 2 more (dilution events) in excess of 50 million this year. You know what’s crazy? MannKind times the dilution at the worst possible moment. I wonder if they send out pamphlets first to the Shorts... Thats funny. In a way, I wonder whether it's accurate. If you look at the chart, MNKD held up pretty well until just about 2-3 weeks ago and then it began a steady, almost daily decline. I have to wonder whether Wainwright leaked word of the offering.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 6, 2018 21:10:45 GMT -5
If scripts start to jump people won’t worry about dilution...reality is Afrezza is taking off as a correction drug and it won’t stay in that niche for long.
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Post by markado on Apr 6, 2018 21:13:00 GMT -5
Not happy with dilution - though expected, but I am happy with the overreaction. Unfortunately, I couldn't get a buy order in before the end of the day, so I'll have to wait to see if my limit order for 2,000 shares clears on Monday. If so, I'll consider today's movement a complete gift, since I almost bought at $2.20, and an opportunity to average down on a company with a northeast trajectory. GLTALs
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