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Post by rickf on May 5, 2018 9:58:24 GMT -5
Just wondering - my average share purchase price is $7.43 PRE SPLIT - $37.15 POST SPLIT and the share price on last Friday was $1.77 post split! What is the general consensus - ANY chance of breaking even in this century? Yup - I am down huge!
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2018 10:22:50 GMT -5
"ANY chance of breaking even in this century?"
Yes.
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Post by agedhippie on May 5, 2018 10:33:17 GMT -5
Just wondering - my average share purchase price is $7.43 PRE SPLIT - $37.15 POST SPLIT and the share price on last Friday was $1.77 post split! What is the general consensus - ANY chance of breaking even in this century? Yup - I am down huge! How long is a piece of string  Lets look at Humalog. Eli Lilly has revenue of $23B, of which $791M is from Humalog which makes it about 3% of Lilly's revenue. Take Lilly's capitalization of $80B and 3% of that gives a market cap of $2.7B. Let's say Mannkind sales equal Humalog sales (which I think would be a good result) then $2.7B divided by the maximum shares out there including unissued shares would give 2,700/240 which is $11.25 per share. Even if no more shares are issued you are looking at less than $20 per share. Now the disclaimers: Math is not my strong point so check it There is an assumption that margins are similar The revenue figures for Lilly are global, not US only. How long is it going to take to reach those sales figures. Are any of the black swans going to sale into view (ADA change the Standard of Care quickly, the company get's bought or sells Afrezza, ...) |
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Post by rickf on May 5, 2018 10:38:55 GMT -5
Appreciate the response - it appears that unless i want to loose a great deal of $$ i will need to go even further out on a limb and invest more $$ to try and average down. Thanks Guys!!
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Post by brotherm1 on May 5, 2018 10:45:42 GMT -5
Trepostinil: the wild card
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Post by sportsrancho on May 5, 2018 10:53:58 GMT -5
Appreciate the response - it appears that unless i want to loose a great deal of $$ i will need to go even further out on a limb and invest more $$ to try and average down. Thanks Guys!! From Nate’s Notes: As you know, I believe “fair value” for the stock at this stage of the game (never mind 2-5 years from now after Afrezza has made additional progress in penetrating the market) is probably somewhere in the $1B-$3B range (i.e. $10 – $30 per share), and history tells us that, at some point, Wall Street is going to collectively recognize this “mispricing of assets” and quickly bid the stock up to where it “should” be trading (interestingly, though the recent price action seems to have caught the attention of more of you, I believe this inevitable “normalization” process may have actually started back in early May when we saw close to 60M shares trade hands over the course of just a few days). Not only does history tell us that “inefficient markets never last forever,” it also suggests that the more dramatically a biotech stock overshoots on the downside, the more dramatically it is likely to overshoot on the upside as well… and the current situation is made all the more interesting by the fact that the whole reason the market cap ever fell below $1B in the first place (in my humble opinion) is because of the relentless short-selling that has put pressure on the stock ever since Afrezza was approved back in 2014. Naturally, in the same way that this “artificial” selling pressure caused the stock to drop on the way down, the “extra” buying pressure that will be added to the market if/when the folks who have shorted the stock finally decide to close out their trades by repurchasing the shares they sold short will only add fuel to the fire… and though short squeezes are far more rare than folks like to think they are, I continue to believe the situation surrounding MannKind is certainly ripe with potential. Second, along with the possibility that investors are simply bidding for stock that they believe is significantly undervalued, after following biotech for close to 30 years now, I can tell you that that it is not at all uncommon for stocks to move “because someone knows something” before it has been shared with the rest of the world… and given how many possible news items might be coming to fruition with MannKind these days (new funding, a new partner(s), label changes, an unexpectedly large jump in scripts, a buyout (or buy-in), etc.), it would not surprise me at all if one or more of these events may be playing out behind the scenes as well. That being said, regardless of what is actually triggering the rally, I think the most important feature of the move is that it is taking place on “legitimate” volume – yes market makers and/or short sellers can easily push the stock around and play games when the volume is minuscule, but in this case, there appears to be some “real money” behind the action… and, given that the action associated with the surge in volume is pretty clearly skewed to the buy side (whether you’re looking at the action in early/mid-May or just in the past few days), I believe it is a sign that we can feel comfortable being involved on the buy side as well. No, we’re not out of the woods yet, but given that Deerfield seems to be content acting as a “friendly creditor” while Castagna gets things up and running under his vision as CEO, I continue to believe that the odds are continuing to move more and more in our favor with each passing week – Afrezza is proving to be the real deal, and as this revelation slowly but surely gains a foothold in the medical and investment communities, I believe we will continue to see additional gains in the stock. As always, please do not buy more MannKind than you can sleep with at night (or afford to lose, if it comes to that), but please also recognize that this is another situation where you should not be afraid to buy strength, as it will only be confirmation that Wall Street is becoming more and more comfortable buying back into the story (and, as mentioned above, I really do believe you will be getting the stock “on the cheap” if you buy it anywhere under $10!). |
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Post by ilovekauai on May 5, 2018 10:54:03 GMT -5
Or just hold Rick. Many of us here are in the same predicament, so you have all sorts of company as we sail on to our destiny.
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Post by gamblerjag on May 5, 2018 11:06:39 GMT -5
Hey Sports.. Is that article from late last year? cause his 1-3 bil valuation would now be $7-$23 not $10 -$30 pps based on some dillution over the last 9 months. Or perhaps he just hasn't recalculated. Still, believe Nate has always seen the future with Afrezza. Thanks for posting.I hope you and other longs enjoy your visit at the ASM.. and your meal!!! Ciao
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Post by gamblerjag on May 5, 2018 11:11:39 GMT -5
One suggestion from my anal perspective.. is just say post split #'s.. no reason to mention pre split a year later.. all stock charts have adjusted. secondly, i'd buy as much as you can and DCA down down down. Good luck.
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Post by rockstarrick on May 5, 2018 11:11:49 GMT -5
Just wondering - my average share purchase price is $7.43 PRE SPLIT - $37.15 POST SPLIT and the share price on last Friday was $1.77 post split! What is the general consensus - ANY chance of breaking even in this century? Yup - I am down huge! How long is a piece of string Lets look at Humalog. Eli Lilly has revenue of $23B, of which $791M is from Humalog which makes it about 3% of Lilly's revenue. Take Lilly's capitalization of $80B and 3% of that gives a market cap of $2.7B. Let's say Mannkind sales equal Humalog sales (which I think would be a good result) then $2.7B divided by the maximum shares out there including unissued shares would give 2,700/240 which is $11.25 per share. Even if no more shares are issued you are looking at less than $20 per share. Now the disclaimers: Math is not my strong point so check it There is an assumption that margins are similar The revenue figures for Lilly are global, not US only. How long is it going to take to reach those sales figures. Are any of the black swans going to sale into view (ADA change the Standard of Care quickly, the company get's bought or sells Afrezza, ...) Your math skills seem to be in good shape, however, there are factors that would/could play a heavy role in the Value of mnkd that are still unknown. If mnkd is successful in bringing another inhaled Drug into the mix, the purchasing Company, if mnkd is sold, could see more Value in the Technology, than just Afrezza alone. And again, if mnkd succeeds in proving superiority for their Inhaled Drug Delivery Technology, they as a Company, could lease the Technology to anyone for $$$. So to try and estimate any future value for mnkd, up or down, is a crap shoot,, Trust me,,,, I can’t count on both hands and feet how many times I’ve failed to calculate what mnkd will be worth and when. But even if we only reach your estimate, I’ll be a happy camper. ✌🏻🇺🇸 |
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Post by sayhey24 on May 5, 2018 11:29:05 GMT -5
Rick - additionally I would add the big target for afrezza is not the insulin market but rather the antiglycemics which is about $20B. Add in what you stated and Aged's Humalog and we may just have a winner.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 5, 2018 11:32:09 GMT -5
Hey Sports.. Is that article from late last year? cause his 1-3 bil valuation would now be $7-$23 not $10 -$30 pps based on some dillution over the last 9 months. Or perhaps he just hasn't recalculated. Still, believe Nate has always seen the future with Afrezza. Thanks for posting.I hope you and other longs enjoy your visit at the ASM.. and your meal!!! Ciao Yes I couldn’t find any new ones that were available to the public yet. |
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Post by rickf on May 5, 2018 11:46:12 GMT -5
REALLY appreciate the info guys! I am into this in a very big way (more than i should be for sure) and any hope is appreciated! The latest information coming out does give me the idea that there is a light at the end of the tunnel - its just a REALLY long tunnel! My feeling is that IF things do turn around it will need to be sooner rather than later. I would love to retire in 2 years but without this ship changing direction soon - it is going to be a very long time before retirement i fear!
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Post by golfeveryday on May 5, 2018 12:19:08 GMT -5
Hey Sports.. Is that article from late last year? cause his 1-3 bil valuation would now be $7-$23 not $10 -$30 pps based on some dillution over the last 9 months. Or perhaps he just hasn't recalculated. Still, believe Nate has always seen the future with Afrezza. Thanks for posting.I hope you and other longs enjoy your visit at the ASM.. and your meal!!! Ciao . True. Lifting REMs and improved coverage, and anything else that comes along here will likely have Nate adjust his current value higher in the not too distant future. |
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Post by traderdennis on May 5, 2018 12:31:29 GMT -5
Appreciate the response - it appears that unless i want to loose a great deal of $$ i will need to go even further out on a limb and invest more $$ to try and average down. Thanks Guys!! Rick, You have already lost a great deal of $$, there is a fallacy that paper losses do not equal actual losses. You have to weigh the opportunity costs of different investments in waiting for MNKD to come back. I wish you luck. |
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