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Post by mango on May 5, 2018 12:34:15 GMT -5
this Rick - additionally I would add the big target for afrezza is not the insulin market but rather the antiglycemics which is about $20B. Add in what you stated and Aged's Humalog and we may just have a winner. |
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Post by peppy on May 5, 2018 13:43:22 GMT -5
Just wondering - my average share purchase price is $7.43 PRE SPLIT - $37.15 POST SPLIT and the share price on last Friday was $1.77 post split! What is the general consensus - ANY chance of breaking even in this century? Yup - I am down huge! The wondrous thing about afrezza is everyone and their mother can see how well it works to control hyperglycemia/post meal hyperglycemia by looking at a continuous glucose monitor. CGM. Prior to CGM diabetics were driving blind. now everyone who is interested can see. Facebook has sites with diabetics using CGM. The split adjusted high for MNKD was 100 dollars. Kendall Has been hitting it. Included in Mike's Monaco presentation, the phase one insulin reaction, " insulin signals the liver to stop making glucose out of glycogen." It is the phase one that stops glucose from going high in the first place. Previous insulins did not produce phase one insulin reaction. So, we have STAT being presented. We know the results will be good because dosing instructions are perfect. We know from people who use afrezza and post on social media, their HbA1c's have come down significantly. That is the criteria. Additionally, Mike cut a deal with Caremark that seems to reflect increased insurance coverage for Afrezza. The thing about the diabetic standards of care, is there are rules/standards for the physicians to follow. Kendall seems to be working on Minnesota..... the home of united Health Care. professional.diabetes.org/meeting/scientific-sessions/78th-scientific-sessionsJune 22-26, 2018, If scripts ever start hitting it, the Wolfe wave could look slow? |
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Post by slugworth008 on May 5, 2018 14:28:44 GMT -5
You are not alone my fellow long!
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Post by mytakeonit on May 5, 2018 16:20:08 GMT -5
rickf - Heck ... it's only money. WHAT?!!! I've been where you are now with other stocks ... so yes, buy a ton of MNKD now to average down.
BUT, because you are in the "I want to break even again mentality" ... when we hit the $38 or $40 mark ... just sell those initial shares so you don't have too much gains to contend with. Then, you will just have those average down shares at under $2 that you bought a TON at. Then and only then ... will retirement be GREAT !!!
Unless you take it all and go to Vegas. Then it's back to work ...
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Post by rickf on May 5, 2018 20:28:50 GMT -5
rickf - Heck ... it's only money. WHAT?!!! I've been where you are now with other stocks ... so yes, buy a ton of MNKD now to average down. BUT, because you are in the "I want to break even again mentality" ... when we hit the $38 or $40 mark ... just sell those initial shares so you don't have too much gains to contend with. Then, you will just have those average down shares at under $2 that you bought a TON at. Then and only then ... will retirement be GREAT !!! Unless you take it all and go to Vegas. Then it's back to work ... Now this brought a chuckle to me - in a sad kinda way! You have all given me a bit of hope for the future of the investment!! it is again - hurry up and wait! |
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Post by akemp3000 on May 5, 2018 22:29:30 GMT -5
It's not the same hurry up and wait again. This moment in time is nothing like any time in the past for this company. Mike C and Dr. Kendall are now steering the ship in the right direction. This company has already faced the biggest rocky roads and roadblocks. The barriers are now starting to fall like dominoes. We don't know when scripts and stocks are going to explode upward but it's looking more and more inevitable. Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 6, 2018 6:56:31 GMT -5
Update from Nate:-) 4/29/18
MannKind
As those of you who follow the MannKind story closely probably saw, it was recently announced that “the FDA has determined that the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) communication plan regarding the risks of Afrezza has been completed and has met its goals. As a result, the FDA has decided that a REMS is no longer required for Afrezza.”
While the stock did not do much on the news (and it is admittedly hard to know ahead of time just how big of a game-changer this news will or won’t turn out to be over the short-term), there is no way around the fact that any time the FDA relaxes or removes a “burden” or “handicap” it has placed on a product, it only increases the value of the product relative to when the restrictions were still in place, and I think the fact that the stock responded in the manner it did (i.e. “not at all”) is simply further evidence that the stock is trading in anything but an “efficient” market these days.
In fact, as you’ve heard me say many times over the past few years as the situation has gotten more and more extreme, I believe the market inefficiency that we are currently seeing around the stock is the most extreme example of “a mis-pricing of assets” that I have ever seen in my 30 years of following biotech stocks – in a nutshell, I stand by my belief that Afrezza is a product worth “several billion dollars” in the right hands (be they MannKind’s or someone else’s)… and yet the company is currently being valued at less than $250 million!!
Of course, not only is “fear and despondency” among investors who are giving up hope playing its usual role in helping to drive the stock to undervalued levels (as it always does in situations like these), a big reason why things have gotten so extreme is that there has also been a very large and persistent short position “leaning” on the stock for several years now, and though there is no rule that says despondent investors who have exited their positions ever need to buy those shares back, the only way a short seller can convert their paper profits (or losses) into real ones is to buy back the shares they have sold short… and this, in turn, means that along with any new buying that might come into the stock in the weeks and months ahead as the STAT study results get announced, partnerships possibly get signed, etc., there is also a “pre-loaded” buy order for over 30 million shares that will need to be executed as the story unfolds (and that’s a lot of potential buying pressure!).
Of course, not all shorts will be covering at the same time (and, to be fair, many of them seem to be assuming they will never have to cover at all “since the company will be bankrupt soon”), but if history is any guide, as the story continues to improve, analysts and institutions will slowly start to come back to the stock, and, as is always the case when emotions are involved, confidence will only grow as the stock price starts to go up.
When talking about some of the earliest examples of market inefficiency that I was able to witness first-hand in the biotech space, my old boss at The Medical Technology Stock Letter, Jim McCamant, liked to say “the analysts always hate them at $3 and $6… they start to like them at $12 and $18… and then love ‘em at $30,” and with the MannKind story currently being so misunderstood on Wall Street, I think it is only a matter of time before some of the braver analysts will finally start to revisit the story… and once the first one or two have “discovered the truth” and written it up for investors, history suggests others will be quick to follow suit, especially since insulin and diabetes are well-known (even if not well-understood!) topics that can be “pitched” to investors fairly easily.
Though you are absolutely encouraged to not own more than you can sleep with comfortably at night (and afford to lose, if it comes to that!), I want to refer you (yet again) to the May 2017 issue in which I spent some time comparing the MannKind story of today with the Celgene story of roughly 20 years ago... and then reiterate (also yet again) that I really am even more confident that I have it right and Wall Street has it wrong when it comes to Afrezza than I was when the same thing was going on with Celgene’s thalidomide “way back when” (and I am placing my own bets accordingly!). Thanks again for your patience while we wait for things to play out!
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Post by sportsrancho on May 6, 2018 8:08:53 GMT -5
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Post by agedhippie on May 6, 2018 10:20:32 GMT -5
It's surprisingly difficult to gauge the impact of removal of the REMS because the other cases all seem to be owned by big pharma so any move would be a rounding error in their revenue stream. Two diabetes drugs that have completed REMS are Trulicity and Victoza, both were communication plans, and sales on those seem to have been good even with the REMS. On the other hand Lilly pushed Trulicity through even faster than Afrezza got through.
Bottom line; I think the damage is done in the initial REMS decision because that may impact prescriptions. Once everyone has been told then they know and their attitude (it's something I can ignore / it's something I will avoid) is set. If REMS were really significant in the market you would not see Novo Nordisk taking seven years to close their REMS for Victoza. On the other hand Lilly pushed Trulicity through even faster than Afrezza got through.
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Post by babaoriley on May 6, 2018 12:21:01 GMT -5
I don't care much about the REMS itself; it's the discussion of the insurance coverage improvement that is of great importance to me. If it's accurate that our coverage has "exploded" (except if it does so like the cigars in the cartoons), then, irrespective of the reason therefor, I'm very encouraged. And it takes a lot to encourage me...
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Post by wsb36 on May 6, 2018 16:42:04 GMT -5
How long do you think itll take OP to break even? 3months? 6 months? 1.5yrs? 3yrs?
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Post by matt on May 6, 2018 16:46:34 GMT -5
Appreciate the response - it appears that unless i want to loose a great deal of $$ i will need to go even further out on a limb and invest more $$ to try and average down. Thanks Guys!! Don't get into the fallacy of averaging down. If you made an investment at too high a price in prior years, you have incurred a loss. Realize that loss when you have taxable gains to offset and get on with life. Nobody bats 1.000 and any gambler will tell you that it is better to fold then to try and salvage a weak hand. Look at each investment you make as a separate transaction that is totally independent of every other investment transaction you have ever made (because it is). If you think MNKD is a good buy at the current price then by all means buy a reasonable amount of shares. If you would not buy at this price for any reason other than averaging down, then you are letting a sunk cost influence future decision making and that is never a good idea. |
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Post by digger on May 6, 2018 19:19:32 GMT -5
Just wondering - my average share purchase price is $7.43 PRE SPLIT - $37.15 POST SPLIT and the share price on last Friday was $1.77 post split! What is the general consensus - ANY chance of breaking even in this century? Yup - I am down huge! The wondrous thing about afrezza is everyone and their mother can see how well it works to control hyperglycemia/post meal hyperglycemia by looking at a continuous glucose monitor. CGM. Prior to CGM diabetics were driving blind. now everyone who is interested can see. Facebook has sites with diabetics using CGM. The split adjusted high for MNKD was 100 dollars. Kendall Has been hitting it. Included in Mike's Monaco presentation, the phase one insulin reaction, " insulin signals the liver to stop making glucose out of glycogen." It is the phase one that stops glucose from going high in the first place. Previous insulins did not produce phase one insulin reaction. So, we have STAT being presented. We know the results will be good because dosing instructions are perfect. We know from people who use afrezza and post on social media, their HbA1c's have come down significantly. That is the criteria. Additionally, Mike cut a deal with Caremark that seems to reflect increased insurance coverage for Afrezza. The thing about the diabetic standards of care, is there are rules/standards for the physicians to follow. Kendall seems to be working on Minnesota..... the home of united Health Care. professional.diabetes.org/meeting/scientific-sessions/78th-scientific-sessionsJune 22-26, 2018, If scripts ever start hitting it, the Wolfe wave could look slow? I used the search function for professional.diabetes.org/meeting/scientific-sessions/78th-scientific-sessions to look for STAT, afrezza, and Mannkind and came up with nothing. Am I doing something wrong? |
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Post by agedhippie on May 6, 2018 21:34:05 GMT -5
The wondrous thing about afrezza is everyone and their mother can see how well it works to control hyperglycemia/post meal hyperglycemia by looking at a continuous glucose monitor. CGM. Prior to CGM diabetics were driving blind. now everyone who is interested can see. Facebook has sites with diabetics using CGM. The split adjusted high for MNKD was 100 dollars. Kendall Has been hitting it. Included in Mike's Monaco presentation, the phase one insulin reaction, " insulin signals the liver to stop making glucose out of glycogen." It is the phase one that stops glucose from going high in the first place. Previous insulins did not produce phase one insulin reaction. So, we have STAT being presented. We know the results will be good because dosing instructions are perfect. We know from people who use afrezza and post on social media, their HbA1c's have come down significantly. That is the criteria. Additionally, Mike cut a deal with Caremark that seems to reflect increased insurance coverage for Afrezza. The thing about the diabetic standards of care, is there are rules/standards for the physicians to follow. Kendall seems to be working on Minnesota..... the home of united Health Care. professional.diabetes.org/meeting/scientific-sessions/78th-scientific-sessionsJune 22-26, 2018, If scripts ever start hitting it, the Wolfe wave could look slow? I used the search function for professional.diabetes.org/meeting/scientific-sessions/78th-scientific-sessions to look for STAT, afrezza, and Mannkind and came up with nothing. Am I doing something wrong? It doesn't come up because it is an oral presentation and not a mainstream event. |
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Post by barnstormer on May 6, 2018 22:25:41 GMT -5
Matt had a good point. You might look at call options to get in on a good PPS with minimal risk if what we all think will happen over the next year happens.
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Rick - additionally I would add the big target for afrezza is not the insulin market but rather the antiglycemics which is about $20B. Add in what you stated and Aged's Humalog and we may just have a winner.
