|
Post by trenddiver on Aug 3, 2015 22:20:06 GMT -5
I was communicating with Baba about this very subject today. So I propose to the Group as follows, per Baba's point to me earlier today: What are the chances Sanofi picks up the debt for some kind of bond or note, etc... The cost would be like a fly n an Elephants arse and could even be done against future milestone payments. Sure would give a clear signal to the market and likely hit the shorts in the shorts... Just a thought... Chances - a big fat zero.
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jul 30, 2015 18:44:36 GMT -5
If there is going to be a buyout, either of Afrezza or Mannkind, Sanofi will only do so once they can clean up Afrezza label. We know that Mannkind was lobbying to get "less hypos" on the label and due to poor trial data that couldn't substantiate it, the FDA said no. I think a better label would have made Sanofi more inclined to buy Afrezza earlier but due to the current label, deal B was implented and that is what we have now. If Sanofi can get data to convince the FDA to accept a more glowing label, one that with overwhelming data that doctors can not ignore or explain away, then I think sanofi will feel much better forking over billions for the drug. If not, the deal as it stands will continue. If there is a buyout due to a new and improved label to Sanofi's liking, i envision a buyout by mid 2016 at the earliest. Until then, we continue to navigate choppy water. I agree that would seem the earliest. Given that we haven't yet seen the trial announced and it will take time to enroll and complete, it's still a good ways off. Unless there is some route to change the label without a new FDA registered trial. Time to stop the constant hype about this illusionary buy-out. Its just bunch of hopeful Pumpers pumping. There is no buyout on the horizon. It's way to early (at least 2 to 3 years off at best). There is no reason at this time for anybody to buy-out Mannkind right now because although the Technoshere/Afrezza platform might be the greatest invention since the IPhone, its has not in any way proven to be commercially successful. As a result, the price anyone would be willing to pay for Mannkind is nowhere near what Al Mann would want for Mannkind based on his own valuation of the company's worth, realistic or not. Conclusion - no sale any time soon.
Trend
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jul 25, 2015 9:50:44 GMT -5
Since so many members of this forum are of the level-headed variety, I will be the one to say it. If I were Sanofi and was planning a buyout - not just of Afrezza, but the entire company - and if biotech (allow me to use you as a example) were one of my competitors (say, Novo-Nordisk) I would be grinning from ear to ear, because my plan is working. The Scenario is this: Al and I have a non-binding "gentlemen's" agreement. Al wants a 2:1 stock swap for me (Sanofi) to acquire MannKind Corporation with Afrezza, Technosphere, everything. Two Sanofi shares for each share of MNKD. That's about $100/share (Afterwards SNY will be diluted, so the deal would be around $85-$90 per MNKD share. When I made this non-binding agreement, I knew the potential for Technosphere, and convinced my BOD to let me initally launch Afrezza on a very limited scale and tightly focus on a small group of endos. This would enable me to gather information, especially physician and patient reaction (my BOD wants this info to confirm the acquisition price is a good investment) while avoiding a bidding war by fooling my competitors "biotech", "baba" and that deep-pocketed "spiro" into thinking Afrezza was struggling. It worked. None of them are bidding. They're all sitting on the sidelines, thinking they've got a year or more. They're afraid of what Technosphere might do to their market share for many drugs, so they are presently more than a little delighted over the "struggles" that I'm having selling Afrezza. Everything I suspected about Technospere is true. My BOD has given me the green light to acquire MannKind. The best part is that just before Al and I announce the acquisition, I'm going to buy millions of shares of MNKD at $5.50/share, which will defray my costs of buying the corporation at $100/share. When it's all said and done, I will have bought out MannKind for about $65-$75 a share. Unless, of course, MNKD share price can get down to $3-$4 per share. Then my average cost per share will be even lower, say $50-$65. I have had Al & team under a non-disclosure agreement for nearly a year not to release ANY information unless I approve it first. After all, I don't want pps to jump before I buy all those shares. Yessir. People are going to be stunned...but Sanofi, with Technosphere in our hands, will become the most powerful pharmaceutical company in the world. The paperwork has been ready for months. I'm not going to tell you whether the paperwork has been signed nor whether I plan to announce the acquisition at this Thursday's earnings conference... you'll just have to "stay tuned". One big fairy tale.
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jul 23, 2015 1:58:38 GMT -5
Does anyone know if the convertible debt is selling at a discount? Last trade was in June around 102.5.
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jul 22, 2015 18:08:35 GMT -5
Not that I have any reason to believe they plan to invest in MNKD, but I certainly think they have visibility and insight into future success of Afrezza that we investors do not. Trend - I would suggest that true - business is not a charity, and SNY will only look out for their bottom line. But that's just it. If they believe Afrezza is the goods and fills a critical part of their portfolio and strategy, they not only want it to succeed for that 65%, but also, for their overall competitive stance in the diabetic market that they are in a war with now, especially with Lantus status, etc. Thus, I don't think they will be 'penny wise-pound foolish'. They need Afrezza to succeed and won't nickle-dime MNKD when they need money to ramp manufacturing, etc because they will just hinder their own success. In addition, SNY would qualify as 'smart money' as they have the inside scoop on just how good this is. At some point, being stock owners/investors will also make them a pile o cash. Why miss out and give it to GS, etc.? I think the key here for SNY is simply one of timing. They all know it can still be bought on the cheap. Q, i dont one want to get into a long back and forth about Sanofi. I'll just say, yes Sanofi knows much more than we do and could be a potential buyer of shares or even the company at some point (but at this point, I don't think so). Also Sanofi doesn't need Afrezza to succeed, Mannkind needs Afrezza to succeed. Sanofi will do just fine even if Afrezza fails. They have a lot of other drugs that are ringing the register. trend
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jul 22, 2015 16:33:53 GMT -5
WHY AUGUST?
Because there are some critical deadlines to be met with the outstand debt. Sanofi knows that Afrezza will be a winner and they don't want MannKind to fail financially. The test drive is over and Sanofi has laid the ground work for DTC and Global expansion / approval. So they will BUY IN.
KC, In case you forgot, this is business not charity. I think Sanofi could care less about whether Mannkind fails financially. I'm sure they are well protected in their agreement in that event. All this speculation about Sanofi investing in or buying Mannkind is nothing more than that, speculation and some wishful hope. If they choose to invest (which I would be very surprised at this time), it would be on the basis that Mannkind and its technology will be a huge hit. How could they believe that based on the results so far? How could anyone believe that except a bunch risk taking longs (me included ?)? As for these critical deadlines regarding the debt, I am not concerned about them in the least. Big Al has the debt covered (aka Al Mann put). For he and his charities have the most to lose and as such he will be the one to prevent any failing of Mannkind financially. Trend
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jul 22, 2015 11:59:07 GMT -5
I wouldnt be surprised if August turns out to be another non-event for Mannkind.
1. Paying off or refinancing or restructuring the debt is well anticipated on Wall Street. The so called BofA 9,000,000 short shares, which may or may not be returned, is not a significant percentage of the outstanding short interest to have much more than a short term effect.
2. The growth of Afrezza users is at best disappointing and until there is an much larger sustained weekly increase in the Nrx numbers (at least 10-15% weekly for at least a couple months), it is not likely we will see much of a turning point. Unless Sanofi announces a major DTC advertising program (television and print), it is hard to believe that significant Nrx increases can be achieved.
3. The Quarterly report from Mnkd will not show any Balance Sheet improvement. What it will show is less Balance Sheet deterioration.
4. Matt has said that future Technosphere plans will be kept under wraps until IP can be protected, therefore I expect more of the same (lack of transparency) until at least the November CC and more probably the February 2016 CC.
TREND
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jul 6, 2015 22:45:50 GMT -5
Its time to reopen the discussion on a proposed Superbowl Ad.
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jun 19, 2015 14:01:35 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jun 19, 2015 8:10:01 GMT -5
With all the constant manipulation going on in MNKD and other stocks, it is unlikely that there are enough cops around to enforce the rules. Its like trying to enforce neighborhood stop signs. Many times drivers do not make a complete stop or disregard the stop sign altogether. It is only when upset neighbors badger the police department that they'll send out a cop to ticket drivers. That is why it is necessary for MNKD to take action with its lawyers. Also, there is a link we as investors can alert the SEC of RegSho abuses www.sec.gov/complaint/tipscomplaint.shtmllink . Maybe if enough of us regularly alerted the SEC of the naked short selling of MNKD, they might take a look. I intend to email the first post in this thread. Let's all join in and see what happen. trend
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jun 18, 2015 12:31:02 GMT -5
This RegSho situation is probably something that Mannkind and its SEC counsel should be aggressively pursuing with NASDAQ, SEC, and FINRA. Matt should understand that doing nothing just emboldens the short sellers and hurts the Company and its shareholders.
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jun 18, 2015 7:46:23 GMT -5
Visser-What can the SEC or FINRA do? I'm not sure anything. So the answer to your question is - they will do nothing?
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jun 11, 2015 21:52:52 GMT -5
Trend, what if takes 5 years to hit $1 billion in sales? Would you be ok with that? Trying to gauge what your version of "slow" is. Truth be told, my patience is running low. I'm holding 25k shares plus 26k $3.00 Jan 2017 calls, all told worth about $200k. Unless by year end, I see a progress with Afrezza (more markets, more scripts, label changes), plus more clarity on Technosphere future activities, I'll be reducing my exposure to MNKD. There are plenty of other biotech stocks that I currently own and like that have equally good prospects going forward. It's hard to fight the powerful short interests supported by shareholders that enable the short activity, a difficult sell in a highly competitive market place, and current management who are uninspiring and unsophisticated in the ways of Wall Street. I am willing to invest in "hope" only so long. Trend
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jun 11, 2015 19:26:39 GMT -5
Time to call a spade a spade. I like many other long term longs was ecstatic when the share price recently skyrocketed. Then of course I now feel dejected because the share price dropped again. We can look for people or to put the blame on - Af, Cramer, Matt, Sanofi, but it's time to put the blame where it belongs and that is on ourselves and management.
I say ourselves, because we greedily enable the short sellers by loaning them our shares to short and to Mannkind for keeping us in the dark and for being inept in dealing with Wall Street.
The truth is, except for a possible short squeeze, there was no reason for MNKD's shares to go up in the first place. Nothing had changed materially in the launch of Afrezza, it is still pitifully slow. Change is scary. It's looks like doctors are more scared of change than patients and there are many obstacles and impediments in the way. We all know what they are. It's a great technology, but sometimes technology is too far ahead of its time to be successful in the marketplace. Based on what I see, it's going to be slow, slow, slow. So slow, that I don't even know how you measure success. Only time will tell. Right now, Afrezza and Mannkind are at the mercy of Sanofi and its ability to educate doctors and patients about Afrezza's benefits.
Management unwillingness to explain much about the future Technosphere applications leaves retail and institutional investors in an information vacuum. I understand management's need to play it close to vest to protect the IP, but at the same time, management is basically saying, trust us - we know what we are doing. They throw out words like "blockbuster", to keep us enthused. Ask yourself, are there any other companies you would be investing in where you don't really understand what going on? I for sure would not. I'm here because of Al Mann, but he's now in the background. We can only hope that he's still in charge.
One last thing, Matt and Hakan and repeatedly proven that they are too unsophisticated to deal with the Wall Street gang. No retail or institutional investor can be happy when the share price drops 20% or more every time they open their mouth. We investors expect management not only to manage the company's affairs, but also the company's perception on Wall Street.
Trend
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Jun 7, 2015 10:58:01 GMT -5
it might have been at the suggestion of someone on this board (perhaps Babo) that I decided to sell out of all of my warrants, which expired in Feb 2016, and trade into the Jan. 2017 $3.00 call options. i had about 50,000 warrants (exercisable into 30,000 shares at a price of $2.40 per share). It took me about three months to accomplish this but yesterday was a perfect day to complete my trade. Yesterday, the call options and the warrants were both selling at no premium to the stock price so I was able to extend out my time almost a year for no additional cost or premium. I strongly suggest anyone owning the warrants look into this strategy. Yesterday MNKD price closed at $6.12. The $3.00 Jan. 2017 calls closed at $3.10, a small discount to the share price. In my opinion, the $3.00 Jan. 2017 calls are very undervalued relative to the share price. Trend Well, it may have been me, Trend, I certainly was at least one person espousing that strategy. I've done the same thing over the last few months, but went mainly for the $2.50 strike, just to more closely mimic the $2.40 exercise price of the warrants. The difference for the extra year was minimal. I went for the $3.00 call, no premium for the longer time and was I able to buy 10% more calls with my warrant equity. What doesn't make sense to me is that the $3.00 Jan 2016 call closed on Friday at $3.20, and the $3.00 Jan 2017 call closed $3.10. Why no premium or the extra year? I have to disagree with Iam2 that the cause is a result of "deep in the money". I say that because Jan. 2016 and 2017 "deep in the money" puts are selling at frothy premiums. It appears to me based on the implied volatility numbers that most of the option premiums are on the puts. Those who wrote the puts are going to look for higher share prices to capture the premium. That is why the calls seem very cheap to me and we could see some expansion of premium soon. Trend
|
|