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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 22, 2015 10:01:16 GMT -5
The biotech investment world is always focused on the next catalyst that will drive their favorite stock to the moon. We wait with baited breath for the next great news and are either overjoyed at the news or overly disappointed when the news doesn't meet our amped up expectations. A stock then gets driven up or down. Unfortunately, Mannkind stock is deeply mired in this repetitive cycle. It is worse for Mnkd because this cycle is being exacerbated by intense short interest. Will this ever change?
I believe it will and I believe that change will begin next month. Matt Pfeffer, Mnkd CFO, has mentioned on different occasions that he wants the company to be known for delivering on its promises. Therefore, Mnkd has tried to give out news that is newsworthy and not get caught up in announcing every little bit of news. This has frustrated many investors who believe the only way for this stock to go up is to have that next bit of news drive the stock up. Mnkd management is trying to break that cycle and change Wallstreet's view that this company is still a biotech start up that is hanging on for dear life. They are not. In fact, I have noticed small things that show me they are maturing as a company. I don't know if many on this board have noticed, but Mnkd quietly adopted the same approach Sanofi uses for making presentations. They now use Powerpoint slides for their presentations. I remember so many Mnkd quarterly conference calls where there was nothing to look at. Sanofi has very professional presentations and Mnkd has adopted that approach. Mnkd is a company that is maturing and morphing into a long term big Pharma company. Mnkd is being careful not to make any promises they cannot deliver on, a good approach in my book.
So why August? I believe that there will be enough cumulative news from Sanofi and Mannkind to convince Wallstreet that Mnkd is a force to be reckoned with. Notice how I did not mention Afrezza as force to be reckoned with, but the company. Mnkd is so much more than just Afrezza. Can you say Technosphere? The following list of news that I believe we will hear that should help show that Mnkd is here to stay:
1. $100 Million Convertible Notes Issue will be resolved one way or the other. I believe the terms will just be renegotiated. Just like any other big company would handle it.
2. The Quarterly Report from Sanofi will be positive. It will show that income from Afrezza has grown from the previous quarter by several times or more. Perhaps we will get a surprise and Sanofi will speak more about several items like a launch in another country, DTC advertising, and other plans for Afrezza.
3. The Quarterly Report from Mnkd will be positive. The balance sheet will continue to show improvement. It will show lower expenses and revenue from Afrezza sales. Also, I believe there will be further clarification on Technosphere plans.
At some point, bigger players on Wallstreet will recognize the amazingly positive risk/reward profile that can be found in Mannkind stock. Once this happens, the short players will no longer be able to control the stock price. Once the stock price cannot be held down, then there is blood in the water and the sharks will eat their own. I believe August will be the turning point.
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Post by trenddiver on Jul 22, 2015 11:59:07 GMT -5
I wouldnt be surprised if August turns out to be another non-event for Mannkind.
1. Paying off or refinancing or restructuring the debt is well anticipated on Wall Street. The so called BofA 9,000,000 short shares, which may or may not be returned, is not a significant percentage of the outstanding short interest to have much more than a short term effect.
2. The growth of Afrezza users is at best disappointing and until there is an much larger sustained weekly increase in the Nrx numbers (at least 10-15% weekly for at least a couple months), it is not likely we will see much of a turning point. Unless Sanofi announces a major DTC advertising program (television and print), it is hard to believe that significant Nrx increases can be achieved.
3. The Quarterly report from Mnkd will not show any Balance Sheet improvement. What it will show is less Balance Sheet deterioration.
4. Matt has said that future Technosphere plans will be kept under wraps until IP can be protected, therefore I expect more of the same (lack of transparency) until at least the November CC and more probably the February 2016 CC.
TREND
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 22, 2015 12:02:29 GMT -5
Matt Pfeffer publicly stated that he expects MNKD share price to be higher in August. Matt has previously hinted  at news which he cannot come right out and say, which he did at the earnings CC last year that immediately preceded receipt of their first Sanofi milestone payment. Even though he safely couched his remark with the words "I expect" I honestly do not think that Matt would dare to be making this kind of remark unless he already knew that there will be some event or announcement that will cause share prices to rise by August. I may be way off the mark on my belief that Matt gave us a hint, but I don't think so.  |
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Post by kc on Jul 22, 2015 13:10:27 GMT -5
Just remember that all it takes for a catalyst is a BUY IN by Sanofi. To buy 10% of the shares is only acquiring 40,900,000 shares. What makes us think that they have not already acquired 4.99% of the shares? I think that Matt and Haken have been telling us not to worry. We worried at the last quarterly meeting as it seemed that they had no plan. The next week they came out at B of A smoking guns. I truly believe there is a plan.
My take on the situation that I posted at Yahoo today.
6 months before Sanofi bought into ANLY a CT order was filed. - Did that happen for MNKD on 12/15/14
Going to SEC filings it was on 6/30/2013 when this CT order was filed by ANLY. about 6 months later Sanofi bought it about 12% of their stock.
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. CT ORDER 6/30/2014 N/A
Is that what is happening to MannKind? CT order filed
MANNKIND CORP CT ORDER 12/15/2014 N/A
From Jan 13, 2014 on Alnylam BUY IN of shares.
French drugmaker Sanofi will buy a 12 percent stake in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc for $700 million and deepen their partnership to develop drugs for rare genetic diseases.
The companies said in a joint statement on Monday that Sanofi would buy Alnylam shares for about $80 each, representing a 27 percent premium compared to their average price over the past 30 days.
The partnership between Sanofi and Alnylam began in 2012, the year after Sanofi jumped into the business of treating rare genetic diseases by paying more than $20 billion for U.S. biotechnology company Genzyme, a leader in the field.
another headline :
ALNY Stock – Alnylam Shares Soar on Sanofi Deal
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)’s ALNY stock is up 30% pre-market today after Genzyme Corp., the biotech unit of French drug giant Sanofi SA (SAN.FR), announced it was buying a 12% stake in the company.
We know that Matt has indicated at the B of A conference that the convertible notes were a NON-ISSUE that they were going to be resolved. You had Adam F ranting this week about MannKind being able to cover them. You know that THE STREET is a bunch of thief's and liars who want to scare us out of our positions as they know that some deal is already made by MannKind. Its evident that after the GS call that Jay Olsen didn't even release any DOWNGRADE or UPGRADE. You can bet that he has covered for his GS friends and they have been buying. Today we have no volume.. Like a Kansas Tornado its quiet before it hits. So is there news forthcoming?
I would guess that MannKind and Sanofi know what is ahead and we will wait patiently for the news. SHORTLY.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 22, 2015 14:19:17 GMT -5
I wouldnt be surprised if August turns out to be another non-event for Mannkind. 1. Paying off or refinancing or restructuring the debt is well anticipated on Wall Street. The so called BofA 9,000,000 short shares, which may or may not be returned, is not a significant percentage of the outstanding short interest to have much more than a short term effect. 2. The growth of Afrezza users is at best disappointing and until there is an much larger sustained weekly increase in the Nrx numbers (at least 10-15% weekly for at least a couple months), it is not likely we will see much of a turning point. Unless Sanofi announces a major DTC advertising program (television and print), it is hard to believe that significant Nrx increases can be achieved. 3. The Quarterly report from Mnkd will not show any Balance Sheet improvement. What it will show is less Balance Sheet deterioration. 4. Matt has said that future Technosphere plans will be kept under wraps until IP can be protected, therefore I expect more of the same (lack of transparency) until at least the November CC and more probably the February 2016 CC. TREND Wasn't there discussion of banning all sobering, realistic analyses of MannKind? Moderators, let's get on this!! Also, CCI, nice post, but "So why August?" Could the reason be that we're in July, and it's sucked so far, and August is the next month? Hope you're right, man! |
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Post by kc on Jul 22, 2015 14:31:40 GMT -5
WHY AUGUST?
Because there are some critical deadlines to be met with the outstand debt. Sanofi knows that Afrezza will be a winner and they don't want MannKind to fail financially. The test drive is over and Sanofi has laid the ground work for DTC and Global expansion / approval. So they will BUY IN.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 22, 2015 14:34:23 GMT -5
I wouldnt be surprised if August turns out to be another non-event for Mannkind. 1. Paying off or refinancing or restructuring the debt is well anticipated on Wall Street. The so called BofA 9,000,000 short shares, which may or may not be returned, is not a significant percentage of the outstanding short interest to have much more than a short term effect. 2. The growth of Afrezza users is at best disappointing and until there is an much larger sustained weekly increase in the Nrx numbers (at least 10-15% weekly for at least a couple months), it is not likely we will see much of a turning point. Unless Sanofi announces a major DTC advertising program (television and print), it is hard to believe that significant Nrx increases can be achieved. 3. The Quarterly report from Mnkd will not show any Balance Sheet improvement. What it will show is less Balance Sheet deterioration. 4. Matt has said that future Technosphere plans will be kept under wraps until IP can be protected, therefore I expect more of the same (lack of transparency) until at least the November CC and more probably the February 2016 CC. TREND Thanks for responding. It is possible that you are right. However, Matt has alluded to a rapidly improving balance sheet. I hope to hear more about that at the next quarterly meeting. I generally expect more info than you do. Which is fine. The market is supposed to be forward thinking and I believe there is enough upcoming good info in August to allow more institutional investors to buy in. We will see. |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 22, 2015 14:41:08 GMT -5
Just remember that all it takes for a catalyst is a BUY IN by Sanofi. To buy 10% of the shares is only acquiring 40,900,000 shares. What makes us think that they have not already acquired 4.99% of the shares? I think that Matt and Haken have been telling us not to worry. We worried at the last quarterly meeting as it seemed that they had no plan. The next week they came out at B of A smoking guns. I truly believe there is a plan.
My take on the situation that I posted at Yahoo today.
6 months before Sanofi bought into ANLY a CT order was filed. - Did that happen for MNKD on 12/15/14
Going to SEC filings it was on 6/30/2013 when this CT order was filed by ANLY. about 6 months later Sanofi bought it about 12% of their stock.
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. CT ORDER 6/30/2014 N/A
Is that what is happening to MannKind? CT order filed
MANNKIND CORP CT ORDER 12/15/2014 N/A
From Jan 13, 2014 on Alnylam BUY IN of shares.
French drugmaker Sanofi will buy a 12 percent stake in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc for $700 million and deepen their partnership to develop drugs for rare genetic diseases.
The companies said in a joint statement on Monday that Sanofi would buy Alnylam shares for about $80 each, representing a 27 percent premium compared to their average price over the past 30 days.
The partnership between Sanofi and Alnylam began in 2012, the year after Sanofi jumped into the business of treating rare genetic diseases by paying more than $20 billion for U.S. biotechnology company Genzyme, a leader in the field.
another headline :
ALNY Stock – Alnylam Shares Soar on Sanofi Deal
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)’s ALNY stock is up 30% pre-market today after Genzyme Corp., the biotech unit of French drug giant Sanofi SA (SAN.FR), announced it was buying a 12% stake in the company.
We know that Matt has indicated at the B of A conference that the convertible notes were a NON-ISSUE that they were going to be resolved. You had Adam F ranting this week about MannKind being able to cover them. You know that THE STREET is a bunch of thief's and liars who want to scare us out of our positions as they know that some deal is already made by MannKind. Its evident that after the GS call that Jay Olsen didn't even release any DOWNGRADE or UPGRADE. You can bet that he has covered for his GS friends and they have been buying. Today we have no volume.. Like a Kansas Tornado its quiet before it hits. So is there news forthcoming?
I would guess that MannKind and Sanofi know what is ahead and we will wait patiently for the news. SHORTLY.
I know I am probably in the minority on this stance. I don't want Mnkd to be bought out yet. A 5% buy in by Sanofi would be perfect. I believe there is more long term value in Mnkd standing alone. JMHO |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 22, 2015 14:50:10 GMT -5
I wouldnt be surprised if August turns out to be another non-event for Mannkind. 1. Paying off or refinancing or restructuring the debt is well anticipated on Wall Street. The so called BofA 9,000,000 short shares, which may or may not be returned, is not a significant percentage of the outstanding short interest to have much more than a short term effect. 2. The growth of Afrezza users is at best disappointing and until there is an much larger sustained weekly increase in the Nrx numbers (at least 10-15% weekly for at least a couple months), it is not likely we will see much of a turning point. Unless Sanofi announces a major DTC advertising program (television and print), it is hard to believe that significant Nrx increases can be achieved. 3. The Quarterly report from Mnkd will not show any Balance Sheet improvement. What it will show is less Balance Sheet deterioration. 4. Matt has said that future Technosphere plans will be kept under wraps until IP can be protected, therefore I expect more of the same (lack of transparency) until at least the November CC and more probably the February 2016 CC. TREND Wasn't there discussion of banning all sobering, realistic analyses of MannKind? Moderators, let's get on this!! Also, CCI, nice post, but "So why August?" Could the reason be that we're in July, and it's sucked so far, and August is the next month? Hope you're right, man! In general, I am an optimist. Which makes it reallllllly hard to write an analysis that doesn't have sunshine in the future. I thought about that very thing. Did I pick August just because it's next month and something good is bound to happen. Is August the right month to pick after years of wild swings and big disappointments? I believe that enough solid boring positive news will come out over the next 6 weeks, that the tide will change. Could I be wrong? Yep |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 22, 2015 14:54:14 GMT -5
Matt Pfeffer publicly stated that he expects MNKD share price to be higher in August. Matt has previously hinted at news which he cannot come right out and say, which he did at the earnings CC last year that immediately preceded receipt of their first Sanofi milestone payment. Even though he safely couched his remark with the words "I expect" I honestly do not think that Matt would dare to be making this kind of remark unless he already knew that there will be some event or announcement that will cause share prices to rise by August. I may be way off the mark on my belief that Matt gave us a hint, but I don't think so. I agree with you. I always enjoy your posts either here or over at the Wild West show ... YMB. Matt has been alluding to good things coming on the balance sheet. I think August is when we see a glimpse of what that means. |
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Post by nemzter on Jul 22, 2015 15:09:59 GMT -5
WHY AUGUST?
Because there are some critical deadlines to be met with the outstand debt. Sanofi knows that Afrezza will be a winner and they don't want MannKind to fail financially. The test drive is over and Sanofi has laid the ground work for DTC and Global expansion / approval. So they will BUY IN.
August will definitely be a turning point for MNKD. I'm hoping we see good things come to light, but what management says and does are 2 different things. Let's all hope they are still on track for what they say will happen. GLTA! |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 22, 2015 16:01:44 GMT -5
My magic 8-ball says... "maybe".
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Post by biotec on Jul 22, 2015 16:11:52 GMT -5
Well we better get some great RX#'S very fast. With low script counts this boat isn't leaving the port anytime soon. JMOA
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Post by trenddiver on Jul 22, 2015 16:33:53 GMT -5
WHY AUGUST?
Because there are some critical deadlines to be met with the outstand debt. Sanofi knows that Afrezza will be a winner and they don't want MannKind to fail financially. The test drive is over and Sanofi has laid the ground work for DTC and Global expansion / approval. So they will BUY IN.
KC, In case you forgot, this is business not charity. I think Sanofi could care less about whether Mannkind fails financially. I'm sure they are well protected in their agreement in that event. All this speculation about Sanofi investing in or buying Mannkind is nothing more than that, speculation and some wishful hope. If they choose to invest (which I would be very surprised at this time), it would be on the basis that Mannkind and its technology will be a huge hit. How could they believe that based on the results so far? How could anyone believe that except a bunch risk taking longs (me included  ?)? As for these critical deadlines regarding the debt, I am not concerned about them in the least. Big Al has the debt covered (aka Al Mann put). For he and his charities have the most to lose and as such he will be the one to prevent any failing of Mannkind financially. Trend |
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Post by kball on Jul 22, 2015 16:53:44 GMT -5
I honestly don't know what will happen.
Nor when.
Perhaps i should have just taken my Mannkind investment money and helped finance the next nicolas cage flick instead?
(tmann should appreciate this)
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at news which he cannot come right out and say, which he did at the earnings CC last year that immediately preceded receipt of their first Sanofi milestone payment.
?)?